The Kakhovka Dam Collapse

You are assuming that the Ukranians have no water management systems above the dam. This doesn’t seem to be the case…
Let's compare:
Lake Kremenchutska
via https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/?lang=en&basin=DNIEPR
SmartSelect_20230618-174002_Samsung Internet.jpg
I don't see water being dumped out of that reservoir.
If you follow the link, you can see more stations, where's the smoking gun?

And how was that ever a viable strategy when all Russia had to do was to open more sluice gates to counteract it?
 
Let's compare:

Lake Kremenchutska
via https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/?lang=en&basin=DNIEPR
View attachment 59913
I don't see water being dumped out of that reservoir.

Well, yes. But your graphs don’t include the relevant month. And still less all the possible sources of water.

Honestly, this shouldn’t be hard: the Ukrainians don’t have a water factory, so the only way they can hit the dam with more water than it’s sluices can release in June is by storing water first. Then they will release it - assuming that is what happened - in a surge.

Also, it’s a bit bizarre for you to go from claiming that the Ukrainians had no control over the water above the dam to arguments based on that control without even acknowledging that your first claim was wrong…
 
But your graphs don’t include the relevant month.
Yes, they do. The hydroweb data is current.

Honestly, this shouldn’t be hard: the Ukrainians don’t have a water factory, so the only way they can hit the dam with more water than it’s sluices can release in June is by storing water first. Then they will release it - assuming that is what happened - in a surge.
Yes, but they didn't.

Also, it’s a bit bizarre for you to go from claiming that the Ukrainians had no control over the water above the dam to arguments based on that control without even acknowledging that your first claim was wrong…
My claim is that the water level in the Khakova reservoir is controlled by the operators of the Khakova dam. I stand by this claim, because that's how river dams operate everywhere.

Your unsupported claim is that the Ukrainians somehow "dumped" water into the lake. I've showed you that they did not use the largest upstream reservoir to do that. I've argued that it wasn't a strategy expected to work—unless the dams upstream of Nova Khakova would be able to release that much water, but the Khakova dam somehow wouldn't.

Bring your evidence.
 
And let’s look rationally at this and see if there is a possible pattern…

- A large piece of infrastructure is destroyed, causing massive ecological damage

- The Russians are clearly inconvenienced by the loss but are still blamed by the media

- The media, and people who can’t look at basic facts like water supply unless the media tell them to, disregard obvious motives for someone else to do this

Hmm. Has that ever happened before? And did it turn out in the end that, no, the Russians didn’t decide to shoot themselves in the head to show how scary they are? I have a feeling that, yes, it did…
 
Yes, they do. The hydroweb data is current.


Yes, but they didn't.


My claim is that the water level in the Khakova reservoir is controlled by the operators of the Khakova dam. I stand by this claim, because that's how river dams operate everywhere.

Your unsupported claim is that the Ukrainians somehow "dumped" water into the lake. I've showed you that they did not use the largest upstream reservoir to do that.

Ok…

One, you are confusing how you think dams are SUPPOSED to operate with how they do. You seem to lack a grasp of basic physics and believe that a literally infinite amount of water can be sluiced. No. Dams have limits based on sensible assumption that don’t include sabotage by the national authorities. Water is an effectively incompressible fluid and flow rates are very limited.

Two, you are assuming a damn hit by perhaps dozens of weapons is fully functioning.

Three, you are assuming readings are correct and complete when you have no reason for either assumption.

Let’s assume that the Ukranians aren’t idiots. They know the dam intimately and they want to destroy it without being blamed. So they hit it with precision weapons to weaken it, release water months later… And, not having iqs of 80, hack the instruments that record the water level that you rely on. This didn’t definitively happen, but it is a match with the facts, and the Ukrainians are really the only ones with a possible gain here - and it fits the modus operandi established with nord stream. It’s certainly more reasonable than the idea the Russians would blow the dam to prevent an amphibious operation: do you have any idea how slowly an apc moves in the water???
 
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You are assuming that the Ukranians have no water management systems above the dam. This doesn’t seem to be the case…

And you're assuming Russians had no means to regulate water level at the dam itself...
 
And you're assuming Russians had no means to regulate water level at the dam itself...

No, I am not. What I said was that it is possible that the means of regulation were insufficient to cope with an attempt to overflow the dam. Huge difference.

I will try my best to help: you are in a house. You have running water, giving you some ability to extinguish fire. Does that mean that arson can be ruled out if the house burns? Sanely, sensibly, no.

For the fifth? time, the maximum flow from a sluice gate is not infinite. Like the fire extinguishing ability of a tap, it may be overwhelmed by deliberate action.
 
disregard obvious motives
you have not shown evidence for the motives you find obvious (I don't)
part of the problem is that neither side stands to gain from that dam breach

You seem to lack a grasp of basic physics and believe that a literally infinite amount of water can be sluiced. No. Dams have limits based on sensible assumption that don’t include sabotage by the national authorities. Water is an effectively incompressible fluid and flow rates are very limited.
No, I don't believe that. But I believe that the Khakova dam could have been opened to release as much water at the lower end of Lake Khakova as enters it at the upper end—as you point out, a not infinite amount. If your theory was true, all that needed to be sluiced from Khakova is as much water as was released from whatever reservoir upstream—both finite amounts. But there was no such release from the largest upriver reservoir.

And, not having iqs of 80, hack the instruments that record the water level that you rely on.
Hydroweb uses satellite altimetry. You are proposing that Ukraine hacked multiple satellites, and that some reservoir levels are meters off their recorded values without anyone noticing, and nobody noticing a flood-like release from an upstream reservoir, either. And no evidence for any of it. That's a conspiracy theory fantasy, but not a serious explanation.
Two, you are assuming a damn hit by perhaps dozens of weapons is fully functioning.
I don't. I said at least one sluice gate is probably damaged. But the gantries had been moving well after Ukraine attacked the dam, and there's no indication that most sluice gates aren't working. In any case, it'd have been up to Russia to get them working (and up to Ukraine to facilitate this if asked).
They know the dam intimately and they want to destroy it without being blamed.
There was no benefit.
It’s certainly more reasonable than the idea the Russians would blow the dam to prevent an amphibious operation: do you have any idea how slowly an apc moves in the water???
I have not suggested that the Russians would blow the dam to prevent an amphibious operation (that wasn't happening).
 
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What I said was that it is possible that the means of regulation were insufficient to cope with an attempt to overflow the dam. Huge difference.
Yes. You have no proof that it was insufficient, and it's a strange claim to start with.

I don't think it was insufficient, given how much of a river cross section they could have opened. Use the actual amount of water from the graphs and do the maths.
 
you have not shown evidence for the motives you find obvious (I don't)
part of the problem is that neither side stands to gain from that dam breach


.
Let me help…

1. humans, agriculture, and industry require water. Thus depriving an opponent of water disadvantages them.

2. Water supplies for Crimea have been a major source of contention since 2014.

So, yes, ukraine does gain from threatening water supplies to Crimea.

As for for the idea that ukraine wants the west to intervene… Well, I can’t think of a way to explain to this to someone who hasn’t already worked that out. Eg from zelenskys speeches. Eg his attempt to get nato into the war after one hus own missiles hit Poland.
 
2. Water supplies for Crimea have been a major source of contention since 2014.

So, yes, ukraine does gain from threatening water supplies to Crime.
Crimea didn't have canal water 2014-2022. As I wrote above. It's not a good threat. But parts of mainland Ukraine also rely on irrigation from that lake, so it's a bit of shooting themselves in the foot.
As for for the idea that ukraine wants the west to intervene… Well, I can’t think of a way to explain to this to someone who hasn’t already worked that out. Eg from zelenskys speeches.
That you haven't quoted.
Anyway, the ICRC was already active in Ukraine, there's no political benefit to having more of them active.
And disaster relief is a less hostile intervention than weapon systems deliveries and sanctions, which the West is already engaged in.

Please bring some actual evidence.
 
Crimea didn't have canal water 2014-2022. As I wrote above. It's not a good threat. But parts of mainland Ukraine also rely on irrigation from that lake, so it's a bit of shooting themselves in the foot.

That you haven't quoted.
Anyway, the ICRC was already active in Ukraine, there's no political benefit to having more of them active.
And disaster relief is a less hostile intervention than weapon systems deliveries and sanctions, which the West is already engaged in.

Please bring some actual evidence.
That Crimea didn’t have canal water was indeed true. It was also one of the reasons for the invasion As evidenced by, quoting from Wikipedia, the Russians immediate objectives…
>On 24 February 2022, the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops advancing from Crimea established control over the North Crimean Canal.[17] The Head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, told local authorities to prepare the canal to receive water.[18][19] Two days later, Russian forces used explosives to destroy the dam that had been blocking the flow since 2014, and water supply resumed.[20][1]


It was literally a first day priority…
 
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But, honestly, the strangest claim you have made is that the Russians would want to prevent an amphibious operation. If there is one thing that every military analyst agreed on, it is that such an operation would be suicide - tanks and APCs would be moving at a snails pace in the water for literally an hour while gunships sniped them. It’s a generals dream.

Al though even that isn’t as strange as you’re not considering that Crimea has lost its main source of water. You would think this would be a fairly major reason for the Russians not to blow the dam and for the Ukrainians to blow it, but it doesn’t seem to occur to you…?
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-dnipro-river-crossing-1796205
Ukrainian troops who have reportedly landed on the east bank of the Dnieper River are likely on a reconnaissance mission, a military expert has told Newsweek.

Russian military bloggers said over the weekend that Ukrainian forces had established positions on the river banks to the east of Kherson Oblast, sparking theories about Kyiv's next move in the war.
And if you look at any map of the russian fortifications eg https://deepstatemap.live/en#8/46.952/34.772
There are far less if Ukraine decides to send troops that way.

Btw I think Mendel did point out before that Crimea survived months or years before without getting water from the canal, so its not such a strong point as you like to think

EDIT: OK 2 new posts the make my last point superfluous
 
This fresh AP News article seems to feature a photograph of an explosive-laden car atop the Kakhovka Dam.

Article:
Russia had means, motive and opportunity to destroy Ukraine dam, drone photos and information show

BERISLAV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia had the means, motive and opportunity to bring down a Ukrainian dam that collapsed earlier this month while under Russian control, according to exclusive drone photos and information obtained by The Associated Press.

Images taken from above the Kakhovka Dam and shared with the AP appear to show an explosive-laden car atop the structure, and two officials said Russian troops were stationed in a crucial area inside the dam where the Ukrainians say the explosion that destroyed it was centered. The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
 
Article:

Evidence is growing that Russia blew up Kakhovka Dam​

A New York Times report Sunday said the Russians knew the weak spot in the Soviet-era dam, a passageway that ran through the concrete block at its base, and most likely detonated explosives there to create the breach.
“The evidence clearly suggests the dam was crippled by an explosion set off by the side that controls it: Russia,’’ said the Times, which cited engineers in reaching its conclusion and also said the American government subscribes to that theory.

Also Sunday, The Associated Press wrote that based on information and drone photos it obtained, "Russia had the means, motive, and opportunity to bring down" the dam.

Earlier in the weekend, a group of international legal experts helping Ukrainian authorities investigate the disaster said it was "highly likely'' the Russians blew up the dam, Reuters reported. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War has also determined the Russians probably were behind the explosion.
 
Thank you, @Agent K !

Quotes from the NYT, excerpted:
Article:
The dam was built with an enormous concrete block at its base. A small passageway runs through it, reachable from the dam's machine room. It was in this passageway, the evidence suggests, that an explosive charge detonated and destroyed the dam.

At 2:35 a.m and 2:54 a.m. on June 6, seismic sensors in Ukraine and Romania detected the telltale signs of large explosions. Witnesses in the area heard large blasts between roughly 2:15 a.m. and 3 a.m. And just before the dam gave way, American intelligence satellites captured infrared heat signals that also indicated an explosion.

As the water levels further dropped this week, they fell below the top of the concrete foundation. The section that collapsed was not visible above the water line — strong evidence that the foundation had suffered structural damage, engineers said.

Engineers cautioned that only a full examination of the dam after the water drains from the reservoir can determine the precise sequence of events leading to the destruction. Erosion from water cascading through the gates could have led to a failure if the dam were poorly designed, or the concrete was substandard, but engineers called that unlikely.

Ihor Strelets, an engineer who served as the deputy head of water resources for the Dnipro River from 2005 until 2018, said that as a Cold War construction project, the dam’s foundation was designed to withstand almost any kind of external attack. Mr. Strelets said he, too, had concluded that an explosion within the gallery destroyed part of the concrete structure, and that other sections then were torn away by the force of the water.

The seismic signals were picked up on two sensors, one in Romania and one in Ukraine, and occurred at 2:35 a.m. and 2:54 a.m. Ukraine time, said Ben Dando, a seismologist at Norsar, a Norwegian organization that specializes in seismology and seismic monitoring. The signals were both consistent with an explosion, Dr. Dando said — and not, say, the collapse of the dam on its own.

He said that the network could determine the time of an explosion to within a couple of seconds, but that the location of the blasts was less certain. For example, Norsar could locate the 2:54 a.m. signal to have originated within a zone 20 or 30 kilometers across that included the dam.

cross-section-600.png

Professor Baecher said it was possible, though unlikely, that water flow from the damaged gates somehow undermined the concrete structure where it sat on the riverbed. But he said an examination of the drawings indicated that the design had protected against that possibility with standard measures. One of those is a so-called “apron” of concrete on top of the riverbed to the downstream side of the dam.

“This appears to be a well-engineered dam of modern design,” he said.

Neither this previous damage, nor the pressure caused by the high water level or the static position of the cranes is likely to have caused the collapse of the dam’s concrete foundation, experts said, unless the concrete was of low quality and already prone to deteriorate. The large flows would also be insufficient to undermine the dam’s foundation unless, for some reason, the concrete apron — the downstream cover placed over the river bottom — contained flaws or the soil was much softer than accounted for in the design.

A video that emerged this week, after water levels had dropped, provides clear evidence of the catastrophic failure. It shows that the top of the concrete foundation, not just the gates, was destroyed.
 
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