# Statistics Help Needed - Understanding the practical meaning of r values

#### Mick West

Staff member
I've been reading several papers on conspiracism recently, and a common thing they do is demonstrate a correlation (or not) between two variables. For example they might demonstrate a correlation between a person's "need for uniqueness" (as measured by answering some standard questions), and a person's Generic Conspiracy Belief score. So we get results like (Lantian 2017):

but also:
https://mindmodeling.org/cogsci2017/papers/0436/paper0436.pdf
(Gf is standardised "reasoning ability", or "fluid intelligence")

So my question here is how to interpret these numbers. I'm assuming r is the correlation coefficient "Pearson's r". This is a kind of "goodness of fit" measurement, which shows how closely the distribution of values fits a line through them (found via linear regression).

Sounds reasonable, however in it seems to be a measure of the quality of the correlation, and not the magnitude. Sure, it shows that people have more need for uniqueness then they are more likely to be conspiracy minded. But it does not show how much?

I suppose, now I've rubber ducked my confusion, that the magnitude is somewhat irrelevant as its automatically going to be scaled relative to other factors. Like if you've got a r=1 then that means that this is the only relevant factor. r = .13 means there are other more significant uncorrelated factors or random variation (i.e. factors that have a proportionally larger effect) because those factors would spread the y values out, and decrease r.

There seems to be some subjective language used. Here we've got two studies, one says:
"was associated with" for a r=.17
The other says:
"link was very weak (r = –.13), "

Now can you really go from .13 to .17 (ignoring the sign) as from "very weak link" to "associated with"? I suppose they are not that different, and written by people with different native languages, but the gist of one paper seems to be making the correlation (.17) but with the other paper they conclude there's no real correlation (.13).

Is it fair for the popular press to say "researchers find Conspiracy Belief linked to need for uniqueness" and also "researchers find Conspiracy Belief not linked to low intelligence"?

Also, how do they get this amount of variance?
"Thus, Gf predicted only a negligible amount of variance (2%) in conspiracy belief."

Is that 2% from the r=-.13 only? Or other values from the data like p = .08? What's the math to arrive at 2% in that paper. "2% of the variation" seems more understandable than the r value, so would be a better number to use if I understood where it came from. And could you also calculate it for the other paper?

#### Attachments

• Lantian2017 - I Know Things They Don’t Know.pdf
220.9 KB · Views: 1,030

#### One Big Monkey

##### Member
I'm having to drag up from memory the stuff I used to teach on this, and bearing in mind I haven't read the articles, but I think the key thing here is the choice of words. One article is saying there is an association, the other is specifying how good that association is.

Correlation coefficients work by taking central values of a pair of theoretically linked variables (usually the mean), calculating a standard deviation (how far each set of values deviate from the central one), and arriving at an overall number that suggests how closely those pairs follow each other. If both values increase together they form a positive correlation, and if one goes down as the other goes up there is a negative one.

By extension if the pairs follow each other then it is because the behaviour of one causes the behaviour of the other, rather than some other random factor that you hadn't considered. There is also the level of 'p' (probability that the relationship is due to chance) that you are prepared to accept as your cut off to consider.

Whether you regard that overall value as statistically significant depends largely on how many samples you took - with a large enough sample you can generate a significant value of 'r' even when that value is low and the scatterplot of values looks like a Jackson Pollock painting.

You also need to take into account the other values that the calculations throw out. In the first example there are confidence intervals of 0.03 and 0.3 for r, which means that for the sample concerned the coefficient could have been as low as 0.03 or as high as 0.3. That's quite a wide spread! What would read into that first article is that yes, in the strictest terms there is an association and one value changes consistently with another, the qualifier is missing: its weak and other factors may be causing the change.

I'm sure a proper statistician will be along to correct my fading memory of how this stuff works, and always remember the rule of thumb: correlation does not imply causation!

#### skephu

##### Senior Member.
Is that 2% from the r=-.13 only? Or other values from the data like p = .08? What's the math to arrive at 2% in that paper. "2% of the variation" seems more understandable than the r value, so would be a better number to use if I understood where it came from. And could you also calculate it for the other paper?
It's probably the coefficient of determination which is simply the square of the correlation coefficient in this case. -0.13^2=0.0169, which they rounded up to 2%.

#### Mick West

Staff member
It's probably the coefficient of determination which is simply the square of the correlation coefficient in this case. -0.13^2=0.0169, which they rounded up to 2%.

That makes sense, as the definition there is:
So would it make sense about the other paper to say "Need for uniqueness accounted for nearly 3% of the variation in conspiracy belief". (since 0.17^2 = 0.0289)

I like the little color coded diagram they have there.

[Minor aside - using fi as they do there is vastly more readable than ŷi, which I've seen elsewhere. ]

Then there's a more formal definition of explained variation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explained_variation
With some criticism from Christopher H. Achen:
The reference:

Grumble! Now this is an older article. Is R2 appropriately used by Jastrzębski? Has it been rehabilitated? Was it ever discarded as Achen wanted? What's this SEE Achen refers to, and how would it be calculated here?

#### Mick West

Staff member
Part of the reason I'm looking at this is the IFLS headline:
http://www.iflscience.com/brain/peo...ies-just-want-to-be-unique-say-psychologists/
Which is based on the Lantian study, but the number suggest something more like:

"We are are 95% confident that somewhere between 0.09% and 9% of the reason why people who use Amazon's Mechanical Turk to supplement their income believe in conspiracy theories is somehow linked to the desire to be unique". (Lantian's Study 2)

#### deirdre

##### Senior Member.
Part of the reason I'm looking at this is the IFLS headline:

"We are are 95% confident that somewhere between 0.09% and 9% of the reason why people who use Amazon's Mechanical Turk to supplement their income believe in conspiracy theories is somehow linked to the desire to be unique". (Lantian's Study 2)

except your example is concrete. (assuming using Mechanical Turk is a unique thing).
The study uses primarily self assessment. And if you go in to a study as a conspiracy theorist already ( abonafide youtube head), and take a self assessment on whether you are unique or not, i would assume you would score yourself as more 'unique' and more willing to not follow the rules.

and the studies (3 and 4) where they tried to manipulate need for uniqueness, results were marginal. and
it sounds like what they mean by 'points' is the 1 (strongly agree) - 5 (strongly disagree). I think we all experienced from the 'where do you fall on the political spectrum' test, trying to decide between 'i somewhat agree and i mostly agree sometimes' is hard enough with 5 points.

#### skephu

##### Senior Member.

Thread starter Related Articles Forum Replies Date
Coronavirus Statistics: Cases, Mortality, vs. Flu Coronavirus COVID-19 281
Clustering Illusions, Baader-Meinhof, and Death in the Domincan Republic General Discussion 15
Debunked: 150 Calories of sugar leads to 11-fold increase in the prevalence of diabetes [1.1%] Health and Quackery 4
Debunked: Ebola CDC Quarantine Map Matches Immigration/Agenda 21 Maps [Population centers] Conspiracy Theories 9
Chemtrail search statistics-Google Contrails and Chemtrails 2
Abusing Statistics about Homosexuality General Discussion 7
Meteorological data to help in understanding Gimbal (January 20 and 21, 2015) UFO Videos and Reports from the US Navy 9
Help debunking local UFO claim Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 8
Need help triangle uap/ufo Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 7
Need help: in analyzing this "uap" Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 39
Need help: Apollo Cold Welding Mitigation Conspiracy Theories 3
Need help debunking FE video Flat Earth 42
Help identifying lights on the ocean surface, Pacific Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 3
Help: Panorama Maker and the Curvature of the Earth Flat Earth 19
Need help explaining: NASA images of Earth from 2017 eclipse show different shadow sizes Flat Earth 3
Need help to identify an object in the sea Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 1
Two problems need help debunking and debating tips? please. Flat Earth 9
Need help with calculating vertical speed of ascending shadow at sunset Flat Earth 13
What You Can do to Help Promote Escaping the Rabbit Hole Escaping The Rabbit Hole 18
Help with Photo Of Dark Lines in Clouds needed. Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 5
Help with a debate about curvature and distance calculations Flat Earth 30
Help identifying odd flights Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 8
I'd appreciate help IDing this very odd contrail flight Contrails and Chemtrails 12
Can you help with a picture? [Ballast Barrels] Contrails and Chemtrails 6
Help to ID a plane? [N90 - FAA Flight Inspection Aircraft] Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 30
Help me! Wife is Chemtrailing... Contrails and Chemtrails 69
MH370: Help me debunk this General Discussion 21
any help to prove or disprove this quote or claim Quotes Debunked 22
Help debunking Sandy Hook and Aroura crisis actors! Conspiracy Theories 8
Help needed finding demolition video. 9/11 28
Need help debunking this [Low Altitude Survey Flight] Contrails and Chemtrails 6
does Social Media + Ego help drive conspiracy theories ? General Discussion 63
Help me to understand - Photos and Videos with very large numbers of contrails Contrails and Chemtrails 52
A little help identifying a flight? Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 12
Help debunk please!? [Contrail Grids, Weather Modification, Fuel Dumping] Contrails and Chemtrails 18
Help identifying this object [Bolide / Meterorite] Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 10
Little help to debunk clouds with color Practical Debunking 2
Help I'm talking to an idiot. Conspiracy Theories 8
Want a Global Criminal Enterprise? Google Can Help. General Discussion 0
Help identifying odd clouds General Discussion 18
Help with some information. Contrails and Chemtrails 2
Debunking needed – anomalous mp3 recording distortion Ghosts, Monsters, and the Paranormal 12
Explanation needed for the decrease in size of USA in NASA's picture from space taken in 2012-13 Conspiracy Theories 2
Related Articles