Curious George
Active Member
Quick dump of the focus
OpticStudio it's called now..Excellent work Mick! This is truly a Sherlock moment
The sensor size remains 20.48mm.
The AoV is incongruous to the Google Earth estimate, this should be resolved -but in any case, the image is what matters, and these formulas I'm using are for a thin lens model, a simplification of a real lens. The only way to be better is if this model of lens shows up in Zemax (a popular optical simulation program).
The aperture estimate will be useful for calculating hyperfocal distance.
The cropping deduction of course comes from the software screenshot.
This thread is for discussion of the object shown at 11:11 of the episode.
I have extensive analysis I can't post on Twitter.
View attachment 60124
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v50Pc8M-4_g
They're showmen. They play scientists on TV.Sheesh....I cannot believe these guys have the utter gall to call themselves scientists.
Thanks. We've said all that before, but it needs to be repeated at regular intervals. We will, I'm sure, hear that kind of speed and distance claims again ...and again ...and again...This is classic UFOlogist BS....which annoys me intensely....as they cannot possibly say it went half a mile in 1.12 seconds without knowing the distance of the object. And they have absolutely nothing, no frame of reference, that provides that distance.
Ravi writes:
Also, I have not found the sensor-distance-to-mount values anywhere in the documentation of the camera.
Watch the preview from 2:43. I believe the reasoning used by Travis, is that they were facing the camera and looking at the sky. Since they didn't see the UFO, he assumes that it passed behind him. He then estimates the visible length of the East Field as 1/2 mile.Scaramanga writes:
...they cannot possibly say it went half a mile in 1.12 seconds without knowing the distance of the object. And they have absolutely nothing, no frame of reference, that provides that distance.
Mick West writes:
Here's the "rawest" comparison with the teaser and broadcast version.
I went back to look at that, and someone says "It went from halfway on the mesa to just over those trees in a second". In other words, they looked at it as if it were just a two-dimensional picture plane, and since it appeared (in that 2-D space) over the mesa and over the trees, they decided to treat it as if it were really traveling all the way from the mesa to the trees, when what it did was merely travel the distance to subtend that angle of view, at whatever distance it was. As @Scaramanga says, they can't calculate it without knowing the distance.He then estimates the visible length of the East Field as 1/2 mile.
Yep, that makes sense.I went back to look at that, and someone says "It went from halfway on the mesa to just over those trees in a second". In other words, they looked at it as if it were just a two-dimensional picture plane, and since it appeared (in that 2-D space) over the mesa and over the trees, they decided to treat it as if it were really traveling all the way from the mesa to the trees, when what it did was merely travel the distance to subtend that angle of view, at whatever distance it was. As @Scaramanga says, they can't calculate it without knowing the distance.
My personal thought is that it isn't a "psychological" bias. It's a bias in favor of marketability of their product, and their product is woo.
Since they didn't see the UFO, he assumes that it passed behind him.
Remember that fly=UFO has worked for them before, see this 2020 analysis: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/black-ufo-at-skinwalker-ranch-a-fly.11271/Because that assumption is in line with the nature of the show.
Watch the preview from 2:43. I believe the reasoning used by Travis, is that they were facing the camera and looking at the sky. Since they didn't see the UFO, he assumes that it passed behind him. He then estimates the visible length of the East Field as 1/2 mile.
Of course, this is only a rough estimation, and he doesn't even calculate that correctly, by using 1 mile in a simplified calculation.
It could be that a strong psychological bias is at play here. Further, other members of the team may be deferring to him as an authority.
Breaking that down:External Quote:Travis Taylor: Well, so the way this camera was set up, it was focused on infinity, which means if you're inside at least five meters away from that camera, you're not going to anything but a big blurry blob. And so if it were a fly or some other insect at top speed insects about a meter per second. So that means it had to, it could only travel a meter across the field of view, because the thing was in the field of view for about a second. For it to be one meter width of that field of view, it mean it had to be about 10 to 20 centimetres close to the lens. And if it was inside that much of the focus on the lens, if it's that close to the camera, it would be so blown up and blurry of a thing, you likely wouldn't even have seen it.
False. Firstly it IS a bit blurry, and the experiments with a similar camera setup show you have a similar level of blur at 4-8 feet, not the 16 feet he suggests.External Quote:Travis Taylor: Well, so the way this camera was set up, it was focused on infinity, which means if you're inside at least five meters away from that camera, you're not going to anything but a big blurry blob.
Ludicrously false. A meter per second is 2.23 mph, lower than average human walking speed. Insects very obviously can fly much faster than that - just based on everyday experience. A house fly has an average speed of 5 mph, with a top speed of 15 mph. A bee flies at 15-20 mph. A horsefly has a top speed of over 35 mph (16 meters per second)External Quote:Travis Taylor: And so if it were a fly or some other insect at top speed insects about a meter per second.
False. We are in the realm of garbage-in/garbage-out at this point, as he was so wrong with the top speed of a fly. However that 10-20cm at 1 meter gives a super-wide field of view of 136° to 157°. Fitting the view in Google Earth, and doing the math on the camera and the lens gives a FOV of just 50°External Quote:Travis Taylor: So that means it had to, it could only travel a meter across the field of view, because the thing was in the field of view for about a second. For it to be one meter width of that field of view, it mean it had to be about 10 to 20 centimetres close to the lens.
True in itself, but false in that it wasn't that close to the camera. Taking into account the blur level and the camera FOV that works out for something about 6 feet (2m) away, which also works perfectly for size and speed (about 5 mph) of something like a house flyExternal Quote:Travis Taylor: And if it was inside that much of the focus on the lens, if it's that close to the camera, it would be so blown up and blurry of a thing, you likely wouldn't even have seen it.
Well, personally I can't believe Travis Taylor is on the AARO team as his 'science' is about as pseudo
Travis Taylor: So that means it had to, it could only travel a meter across the field of view, because the thing was in the field of view for about a second. For it to be one meter width of that field of view, it mean it had to be about 10 to 20 centimetres close to the lens.
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This would require a Focal Length of 2-4mm. This is clearly not possible with the lens we saw in the video, nor any lens. At that point you need to shoot off a mirror ball.Mick West writes:
...super-wide field of view of 136° to 157°
Yeah not a part of AARO that I know of, but as part of UAPTF it's possible Travis Taylors flawed analysis and subsequent spreading of that is in part responsible for the current UFO wave from Elizondo to Grusch and now the US Senate. All feeding back in on each other.Not to get off topic, but Taylor was part of the UAP Task Force under Jay Stratton back in ~'18-'21(?) or so. I was not aware of him being part of AARO.
To put that in perspective, Travis is reported to be 1.85m tall. So he's saying it would take almost 2 seconds to fly from his feet to his head. That's not very fast. Hindsight is always 20/20 though.Travis Taylor: And so if it were a fly or some other insect at top speed insects about a meter per second.
I set up a test with drywall screws turned head on to the camera as rough analogs of flies.
Yesterday? Where was this?On 7/5/2023, on the Insider's live chat, Travis asked for events that could have a prosaic explanation in any episode aired to date.
We might see a more scientific investigation now.
This is terrestrial technology.
Ornithopter (1902):
Article:
DelFly (TU Delft):
Article: DelFly Nimble is our newest and most agile design which can hover or fly in any direction (up, down, forward, backward or sideways). Unlike its predecessors, which are controlled like a conventional airplane via deflections of control surfaces located on the tail or behind the wings, the DelFly Nimble has no tail nor such control surfaces. Instead, it is controlled through insect-inspired adjustments of motion of its two pairs of flapping wings. The lack of the tail makes the DelFly Nimble less vulnerable to damage and highly agile, allowing also outdoors operation in light winds.
Festo - BionicOpter:
Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nj1yhz5io20
Though we think it's also popular elsewhere:
Article: Mostafa Hassanalian, PhD
Associate Professor, Mechanical Engineering
Research Areas:
Biomimetics, and Bio-Inspired Aerial and Aquatic Robots
Design, Optimization, and Performance Enhancement of Aerial Vehicles,
Drones (UAV/MAV/NAV/PAV): Fixed Wings, Flapping Wings, Rotary Wings, Tilt-Rotor and Tilt-Wing Drones, Morphing Drones, Space and Marine Drones, Separation and Swarming Flight of Micro Drones.
New Concepts for Planetary and Space Exploration
Aerodynamics, Hydrodynamics, Aeroelasticity, Fluid-Structure Interaction
Just watching the vibrations set up by flapping wings makes me think that structural integrity would be a serious problem. Are those things just experimental novelties? Any helicopter-like rotary blade apparatus would give a much more stable flight, wouldn't it?Festo - BionicOpter:
New Mexico isn't all that far from Arizona...
Just watching the vibrations set up by flapping wings makes me think that structural integrity would be a serious problem. Are those things just experimental novelties?
I've had birds come in to observe more or less bird shaped kites, and sometimes to attack them. And, on one odd occasion, to sit on one! Other than that last one, they seem to react as they would to an actual bird -- as far as I can decipher bird intentions.I wonder if birds have the same reaction humans do to things that are almost human but not quite. We find them creepy and disturbing. I've watched ducks and geese swim around plastic decoys of themselves, so I suppose not.
And there's the tried-and-true method of putting a cutout of an owl on a glass door to stop small birds from flying into them to attack their own reflections. It works for me! Many tall structures like church bell towers put plastic owl models there for the same reason: birds see a predator and avoid it.I've had birds come in to observe more or less bird shaped kites, and sometimes to attack them. And, on one odd occasion, to sit on one! Other than that last one, they seem to react as they would to an actual bird -- as far as I can decipher bird intentions.