qed
Senior Member
Skeptoid proposes two criterion for judging whether a conspiratorial proposition deserves the name "conspiracy theory", with the aim of rejecting certain significant true conspiracies as not qualifying as examples of "conspiracy theories that turned out to be true".
Certainly 2. must be satisfied if one is to claim an example of a "conspiracy theory that turned out to be true".
https://skeptoid.com/episodes/4416
Judging conspiracy theories can be a tricky business. For one thing, they're often uselessly vague. I can say "The government does things we don't know about," and then virtually anything can come out in the news and I can claim to have been right. For another thing, the world is full of real criminal conspiracies, and I can always point to any one of them and claim "Hey, this is a conspiracy theory that was proven true." So I have a simple pair of requirements that a conspiracy theory must adhere to in order to be considered the type of conspiracy theory that we're actually talking about when we use the term.
- First, it must be specific enough to be falsifiable. This is the fundamental requirement that every scientific theory must comply with to be considered valid. By way of example, compare a vague version of the chemtrails conspiracy theory to a specific disprovable claim. You can't just say "Some airplanes spray some unknown chemical." That's so vague that you could claim you were proven correct the next time a crop duster sprays a field. But if you say "United Airlines tail number NC13327 is equipped to spray VX nerve gas, and that one right there is spraying it right now," then that's a claim that can be disproven with a single inspection. You make a claim that specific, you're proven right, I'll stand behind you 100%.
- Second, it must be known to the conspiracy theorist before it's discovered by the media or law enforcement. Simply repeating what someone else's proper investigation has led them to does not constitute developing a theory. Woodward and Bernstein did an intense investigation and put together evidence bit by bit until they had the whole story of the Watergate scandal; at no point did they sit back in their chairs, propose an elaborate conspiracy, then watch as every detail unfolded exactly as they predicted. If you want to impress me with your conspiracy theory, you have to discover it (in detail) before other investigators piece together the proof and make it public for you. Otherwise you're just claiming credit for reading the newspaper.
Certainly 2. must be satisfied if one is to claim an example of a "conspiracy theory that turned out to be true".
- But is 1. really valid?
- Can Skeptiod REALLY then claim that 9-11 is not a true conspiracy theory, because back in the early 2000's it could not be falsified?
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