Is there an "out" for Putin ?

[Leifer]

If Putin seems like a trapped animal, and the world is against him. His history is to fight-back and step-up the aggression.
He seems to have gotten himself in a "pickle". (a difficult and messy situation)

So.... what is his "out" ?
Do we purposefully allow him to have an "out" that is agreeable to all ?
What would that be ?

 

[NorCal Dave]

Unfortunately, his "out" is to carry on in Ukraine until he has a pro-Moscow government installed. Once that is done and the rest of the world can't do anything about it, he'll turn around and say "Who wants to buy some gas and oil? I give you good price!"

Granted, it may take much longer than he thought, end up in the deaths of lots of Russian soldiers and civilians, the leveling of Kiev into rubble, the collapse of the Russian economy and maybe an ongoing insurgency, but these things don't affect him. Once Ukraine is, again part of Russia, he knows the world will need his oil and gas.

There is always a slim chance that he could be overthrown, but he's the personal head of a police state that doesn't tolerate any disagreement, so I'm not holding my breath on that.

 

[Rory]

Probably it will go to the bitter end. Unless someone close to him tries to pull off a Claus von Stauffenberg.

 

[Leifer]

From an older transcript, 20 years ago recounted by Vice, possibly a lesson learned by a young Putin......
( https://www.foreignaffairs.com/revi...shingly-frank-self-portrait-russias-president )

https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7d...iety-what-putin-might-do-if-he-feels-cornered

Russian President Vladimir Putin once claimed that, as a kid, he learned a big life lesson in power politics from the time he cornered a huge rat.
In a series of interviews published as a quasi-autobiography during his rise to power two decades ago, Putin recalled chasing big rodents with a stick around his dismal, communal apartment building in St. Petersburg, then known as Leningrad:
“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word ‘cornered.’ There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me. It jumped across the landing and down the stairs. Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door on its nose.”

 

[Leifer]

I did order the book.... I have not yet read it.
https://www.amazon.com/First-Person...lf-portrait+by+russia's,stripbooks,291&sr=1-1

 

[Mendel]

Article:

A European diplomat told reporters at a briefing yesterday: "It's like the Sun Tzu thing of giving someone a golden bridge to retreat across. How do you get him to go in a different direction?"

"I think the door to diplomacy remains open," the diplomat continued. "Putin ... doesn't normally back down. But he also controls the information environment in his own country to such an extent that if he does, he can cover his tracks. ... So I think there is room for him to de-escalate — and that's certainly what we're pressing for."

The diplomat pointed to yesterday’s Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Belarus as the most viable off-ramp in a sea of bad options, noting that negotiations lasted for four hours and appear headed for a second round.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said before the talks that he was willing to discuss "neutral status" for Ukraine — one of Putin's three demands.But the other two — demilitarization and "denazification" of Ukraine, and recognition of Russia's claim to Crimea — suggest Putin will never accept a deal in which Zelensky remains in power.

Source: https://www.axios.com/biden-dilemma-putin-ukraine-invasion-edd5f465-bf46-4f3c-85ce-95021d2d6741.html

 

[Gary McH-P]

Putin is 69 years old. He could well be suffering from mental health issues or taking steroids for a medical condition or both.

https://www.menshealth.com/uk/healt...nt-vladimir-putin-accused-of-taking-steroids/

Former foreign secretary and doctor Lord David Owen has accused Russian president Vladimir Putin of taking steroids and said his aggression could be caused by them.

Speaking to Times Radio, Owen said that Putin's changing face shape was a sign that the Russian dictator has been taking steroids, which, he says, are known to cause "aggressiveness" in bodybuilders.

I imagine it’s only the Oligarchs that can turf him out as their fortunes dwindle, their assets are frozen, their money stuck in foreign bank accounts. The Russian people can’t do it as they would have done it by now.

 

[Rory]

Five ways the war might end:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936

1. Russia wins quickly, installs government, Zelensky is assassinated or flees

2. Long war turning into Russian troops vs insurgents

3. Russia moves further into Europe, possibly Georgia, Moldova, Lithuania and NATO get involved

4. Diplomatic solution

5. Putin ousted

I notice there's no option there for Ukraine winning - though #5 and #2 contain elements of that.

I also had a horrible dream the other night where it had escalated into a war with European countries and NATO and as Russia was losing Putin was just like "eff it, I don't care about anyone anyway" and launched nukes against the US. The US, naturally, nuked back and much of the world woke up to a planet with no America and no Russia. It was devastating and shocking and weird. But then once the dust settled people were like, actually, it's better like that and generally got on with things more peacefully than before.

 

[Rory]

Probably it will go to the bitter end. Unless someone close to him tries to pull off a Claus von Stauffenberg.

A US senator has called on someone in Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle to assassinate him.

Lindsey Graham, who represents South Carolina, tweeted: "You would be doing your country - and the world - a great service.

"Is there a Brutus in Russia? Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military?"

Anatoly Antonov, Russia's ambassador to the US, described his statement as "unacceptable and outrageous".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60621796

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