Claims of missing voters in 2024 vs. 2020

[FatPhil]

source?

Election Voting-age population (VAP)[8] Voting-eligible population (VEP)[8] Turnout[8] Turnout as % of VAP[8] Turnout as % of VEP[8][9]
2016 249,422,000 230,931,921 136,787,187 54.8% 59.2%
2020 252,274,000 240,628,443 158,427,986 62.8% 65.8%
2024* (estimated)[10] 264,798,961 244,666,890 155,547,700 58.74% 63.5%

* 2024 numbers estimated by the Election Lab at the University of Florida. This estimate will be revised as additional data becomes available.[10]

-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections

[10] is "2024 General Election Turnout UF Election Lab". University of Florida. Retrieved November 13, 2024, linking to https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/

 

[Mendel]

Election	Voting-age population (VAP)	Voting-eligible population (VEP)	Turnout	Turnout as % of VAP	Turnout as % of VEP
2020	252,274,000	240,628,443	158,427,986	62.8%	65.8%
2024* (estimated)[10]​	264,798,961	244,666,890	155,547,700	58.74%	63.5%

* 2024 numbers estimated by the Election Lab at the University of Florida. This estimate will be revised as additional data becomes available.[10]

-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections

[10] is "2024 General Election Turnout UF Election Lab". University of Florida. Retrieved November 13, 2024, linking to https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/

VEP up by less than 2%, or less than 1% since the midterms.

The VEP uses "government statistical series to adjust for ineligible but included groups, such as noncitizens and felons, and eligible but excluded groups, such as overseas citizens."

Turnout as % of VEP for 2024 is still the second highest number in that column (of the full table).

 

[FatPhil]

Turnout as % of VEP for 2024 is still the second highest number in that column (of the full table).

Yup, that seems to be part of a recent trend, although there's a fair bit of noise in the signal:

(from the same wikipedia page)

Despite sometimes taking a more deeply game-theoretic view of things, William Spaniel has done what I consider a fairly shallow analysis of polling errors, but that might be because I've been gibbering on about Duverger's Law for many decades:

The 2024 polls were inaccurate once again. In the political discourse, this seems to be a source of humor and annoyance. However, it has very real consequences for candidate behavior. This video examines how parties develop their ideological platforms in the absence of good knowledge of where the bulk of voters lie on the political spectrum. We will see that this leads to polarized platforms, thereby eliminating one of the primary benefits of democratic institutions. Although it is not an immediate threat to the U.S. system, it is something that could become a problem if the inaccuracies get worse.

Source: https://youtu.be/watch?v=hhaNiF5aCCY

 

[captancourgette]

I'd agree generally, but with the concern that it could easily be spun into an "it was rigged" narrative, further normalizing the idea that elections are fake and not worth having/participating-in/defending. Once one side started doing it, we had problems. If both sides start, we are... a word I won't use here because it is always possible there are children or people with tender sensibilities that might be browsing.

Protecting our voting infrastructure is important, too, of course. If it could be done while firmly stomping on the "it was rigged" chorus some will push, including some international adversaries, that would be important.

too true and thats just another reason to give the middle finger to trump - he has dialed that switch falsely to 11 in past elections thus any complaints will be ignored.
Personally I dont think it was rigged due to the exit polls.
But mate if "experts" have concerns look at what they're sating, don't assume you know better cause of common sense - Im not even sure they are "experts" I will let mendel decide this <- and Im with stupid ( no shade btw, he's one of the few ppl I will go OK but will always look myself )

 

[Mendel]

But mate if "experts" have concerns look at what they're sating, don't assume you know better cause of common sense - Im not even sure they are "experts" I will let mendel decide this <- and Im with stupid ( no shade btw, he's one of the few ppl I will go OK but will always look myself )

go look for yourself, that's fine
but you're a coder, you know how bugs get exploited

Peter G Neumann has run a computer security mailing list (comp.risks) for decades, if he says there's a risk, then I'm not second-guessing that.

 

[captancourgette]

go look for yourself, that's fine
but you're a coder, you know how bugs get exploited

Peter G Neumann has run a computer security mailing list (comp.risks) for decades, if he says there's a risk, then I'm not second-guessing that.

comp. someit saiz so in some usenet forum (and Im old enuf to understand what that means-- fuck teh internet and giving other assholes the ability to spout nonsense) well I guess thats OK case closed untikl 2028
meh - ha
btw since you're german (I assume) Im looking for a quick getaway for me and my gf/daughter soonish, my daughter wants to see snow, last year was a wash, as she wanted it and we went there and there was nothing, though there was spain.
so as a father I want to give snow to her.
heres us last month

I understand german (its my 3rd language) above catalan or spanish even though I live here 6 years & my daughter is catalan.
But if you recommend a CHEAP (and I mean cheap) place for us to go for even 1 night (2 nights brilliant but 1 night OK)
200 euros inclusive flight via barcalona, I will be happy, my daughter wants to touch snow.

btw on a personal note _ I remember you saying to return to my child (last time I went to Ukraine) thanks mate
actually meant a lot then and now.

first time I was there (during this war) I posted pics of food, a bit stupid
this time who knows.
A respite with my child I will love

l

 

[Mendel]

comp. someit saiz so in some usenet forum (and Im old enuf to understand what that means-- fuck teh internet and giving other assholes the ability to spout nonsense)

what got posted to usenet was the digest, moderated by PGN

I don't really know my way around winter sports, it snows when it snows
try some mountains in the south, I'm up north