I'm sure you're right. The problem is that we don't know if the MoD technicians actually conducted a serious analysis of the negatives. After all, this was just another "UFO story" including extraordinary claims, and the MoD quickly concluded that no Harriers were operating in the area at the time of the alleged incident.
If the images were reviewed by JARIC as Lindsay claimed, it would have been done according to whatever their protocols were.
JARIC was an RAF-led unit with predominantly armed forces personnel, and wouldn't be in a position to decide what they should take seriously or not (although no doubt JARIC would flag up any findings of particular significance to whoever was tasking their work).
The conclusion that there were Harriers in the photos would be on the advice of whoever formally reviewed the material (supposedly JARIC), so checking if there were Harriers in the Calvine area would probably have been post-analysis.
They likely had more pressing concerns than investigating UFO photos.
Undoubtedly correct.
1990 was at the tail-end of the Cold War, and the USSR had just started the process of dissolving.
(Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union). Iraq invaded Kuwait 2nd August 1990, and the Northern Ireland Troubles continued.
Without any special insight, we can have an educated guess at JARIC's main priorities/ taskings up to that time:
(1) Examining stand-off reconnaissance photos of Warsaw Pact military units, COMECON infrastructure, mainly in the DDR.
Referring to the photographic recce variant of the (even then) antiquated Canberra jet, Wikipedia says
External Quote:
The PR.9s were fitted with special long-range optical photography cameras, reportedly based on those used by the Lockheed U-2, to allow high-altitude photography of targets deep inside Eastern Europe while flying along the
inner German border...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Electric_Canberra; the PR9 served until 2006.
(NASA operates 3 WB-57 Canberras, allegedly used to survey the area around Langley Air Force Base after reported "drone" sightings in early 2024, see thread
Langley AFB video on Reddit & Twitter.)
RAF Germany Harriers, Jaguars and Tornados (and their predecessors) would have conducted shorter-reach recce flights from within FRG.
It's a grim thought, but as well as informing the level of readiness of NATO forces, conclusions from JARIC would have informed targeting decisions.
(2) Interpreting pictures of Soviet/ Russian military aircraft encountered over the North Sea/ northeast Atlantic, looking for any changes in aerials/ "blisters" on the airframe/ external stores etc. Mainly Tu-95 Bear recce/ EW variants, sometimes LRMP or missile carrier types Less frequently Tu-22M Backfire, others.
Examining pictures of Soviet/ Russian warships, but more frequently merchantmen and trawlers in the same areas; Russian "civil" ships were often a cover for signals intercept/ electronic intelligence missions.
Over the years: Tu-95 escorted by Lightning, Phantom, Tornado.
(3) Possibly support of similar recce operations in the southern/ eastern Mediterranean conducted from Cyprus.
Less frequently maybe interpretation of intelligence from elsewhere, e.g. the RAF Belize flight.
(4) Interpretation of images, e.g. identification of individual civilian vehicles of interest, in support of civil authorities in Northern Ireland.
(5) Cooperation interpreting intelligence from some allies.
-Which is why I'm a bit surprised that JARIC were tasked with looking at the Calvine photos at all.
I have idly wondered if the supposed presence of Harriers made a difference.
The MoD "UFO desk" wasn't exactly a well-resourced enterprise, and was ultimately scrapped.
There had been genuine interest in the UFO phenomenon in the 1950s amongst some influential people; Prince Phillip's uncle, Lord Mountbatten, who had been the last Viceroy of "British" India/ Pakistan, was interested in the "flying saucers".
In 1955, Mountbatten submitted a reported sighting by Fred Briggs, who had been working as a bricklayer on Mountbatten's estate; Briggs said
External Quote:
...I suddenly saw an object hovering stationary over the field... ..which then rose vertically, quite as fast as the fastest Jet aircraft I have seen, or faster.
There had been no noise whatever until the Saucer started to move, and even then the noise was no louder than that of an ordinary small rocket let off by a child on Guy Fawkes Night.
The Sun, Emma Parry, 25 September 2017, "
ET THRONE HOME Prince Philip's uncle Lord Mountbatten was UFO enthusiast and even documented alien SPACESHIP landing on his estate"
(Note the motif of the silent, hovering UFO making a rapid vertical departure, 35 years before Calvine- practically a UFO meme).
-A senior Royal Navy admiral, whose name escapes me, was also very concerned about/ interested in UFOs in the 50s.
An official UFO desk might have been good PR, and helped the RAF/ MoD answer the question "What are you doing about this?" from such people, and the occasional Member of Parliament responding to a constituent's concerns or claimed sighting.
The official line was that the UFO desk was evaluating whether UFOs had any defence significance.
It probably didn't take too long before it was realised that most UFO reports were very much in what we call the LIZ (low information zone, e.g. a single brief light in the sky) and that more exotic reports probably had more significance for sociology, popular culture/ contemporary folklore (which is David Clarke's interest) and psychology than for defence per se.
No sightings from mainland Britain were likely to be of Soviet aircraft, and any "establishment" interest in aliens waned.
Whatever the sole civilian MoD civil servant thought they were doing, I suspect the other Air Staffs that Sec(AS)2a reported to used the information for other purposes than researching the possibility of extraterrestrial visitors:
-Investigating unauthorised low-level flying.
The UK doesn't have a Nevada desert; low flying is practiced in some areas where there are farms, particularly hill farms. Farmers are compensated for livestock losses that inevitably occur.
Some pilots (thinking of David Fravor's account of buzzing people in his F-18) might have pushed the [regulatory] envelope once in a while. (In 1968, an RAF pilot illegally flew his
Hawker Hunter under the top span of Tower Bridge in London).
-Air policing; unauthorised light aircraft/ helicopter flights by e.g. organised crime for drug importation. Again, probably soon seen as unlikely/ vanishingly rare in the context of UK/ NW Europe.
-Losses of parts/ stores from aircraft in flight. Does happen.
-Possible unexpected satellite re-entries. Now covered by space-tracking radar.
-Assessment in the context of any emerging hazards, e.g. hobbyist RC aircraft and rockets, research balloons etc. from universities; use of ground-based lights that might be seen by, or mistaken as, aircraft.
Whatever, I'm wondering if JARIC were involved because the MoD's principle question was not
"What is that flying rhombus?" but
"Who's flying their sodding Harrier at low level near the A9?"