Balticconnector pipeline damage

[FatPhil]

Another pipeline in the Baltic just had a little ooopsie happen to it:

Ministers: Balticconnector pipeline damage was deliberate

Pictures show the damage to the gas pipeline Balticconnector was carried out deliberately by people, said Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) on Tuesday. Investigations are still ongoing.

"The picture we have from the pipeline tells us that the damage had to have been done by something greater than a diver or unmanned submersible. The damage is more extensive," said Pevkur.

He also ruled out the possibility of an explosion, as seismologists did this morning.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) confirmed the damage is mechanical and therefore caused by humans.

-- https://news.err.ee/1609128134/ministers-balticconnector-pipeline-damage-was-deliberate

Finland investigates suspected sabotage of Baltic-connector gas pipeline

Finland says damage to an underwater natural gas pipeline with Estonia on Sunday may have been deliberate and was probably caused by "external activity".

The Baltic-connector pipeline was shut down after a sudden drop in pressure. A telecoms cable was also damaged.

Finland's prime minister said on Tuesday that the source of the leak had been found and was being investigated by both countries.

Petteri Orpo added that the cause was not yet clear.

Finnish sources have told the BBC the suspicion falls on Russian sabotage as "retribution" for Finland joining Nato in April this year.

Norway's seismological institute, Norsar, said it had detected a "probable explosion" along Finland's Baltic Sea coast at 01:20 on Sunday (22:20GMT on Saturday). The event was measured at 1.0, far smaller than the explosions that targeted the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022.

That appeared to contradict a statement from Finland's National Bureau of Investigation (KRP) that there were "no indications" that explosives had been used, although it added the damage was so serious it was expected to take months to repair.

Finnish authorities said damage to the cable and pipeline damage happened at two different spots in Finland's Exclusive Economic Zone.

"The discovered damage could not have been caused by normal use of the pipeline or pressure fluctuations," Mr Orpo told a press conference. Other possible causes such as seismic activity had already been ruled out.

-- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67070389

 

[Duke]

The National Bureau of Investigation, a branch of the Finnish police, said that it has evidence and data pointing to the Hong Kong-flagged cargo vessel NewNew Polar Bear as the culprit in damaging the pipeline running across the Gulf of Finland.

Detective Superintendent Risto Lohi, NBI's head of the investigation, said in a news conference Tuesday that a 1.5 to 4-meter-wide dragging trail on the seabed is seen to lead to the point of damage in the gas pipeline.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/25/finland-blames-chinese-ship-for-baltic-sea-gas-pipeline-damage

Intentional or an accident?

 

[Ann K]

Another pipeline in the Baltic just had a little ooopsie happen to it:

I know Scotland has just had a severe storm. Has that caused high winds in the Baltic that may have affected shipping?

 

[Mendel]

I know Scotland has just had a severe storm. Has that caused high winds in the Baltic that may have affected shipping?

yeah but the damage happened before; also Scotland isn't anywhere near the Baltic

 

[Mendel]

Intentional or an accident?

Don't think China intentionally does this. but it bears investigating.

Article:

In June 2023, Baltic Fulmar was sold to the Chinese shipowner Hainan Xin Xin Yang Shipping, reflagged to Hong Kong, and renamed Newnew Polar Bear.[2]

As of 9 October 2023 Newnew Polar Bear sails under NewNew Shipping Line.[13]

[...]

After sailing out of the Baltic Sea, Newnew Polar Bear was photographed arriving in the port of Arkhangelsk with the port side anchor seemingly missing on 22 October.[19][20] On 24 October, the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation announced that they had retrieved an anchor embedded in the seabed next to the damaged pipeline in co-operation with the Finnish Navy and Finnish Border Guard, and that Newnew Polar Bear was the prime suspect for the incident.[6]

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newnew_Polar_Bear

 

[FatPhil]

Don't think China intentionally does this. but it bears investigating.

Article:

In June 2023, Baltic Fulmar was sold to the Chinese shipowner Hainan Xin Xin Yang Shipping, reflagged to Hong Kong, and renamed Newnew Polar Bear.[2]

As of 9 October 2023 Newnew Polar Bear sails under NewNew Shipping Line.[13]

[...]

After sailing out of the Baltic Sea, Newnew Polar Bear was photographed arriving in the port of Arkhangelsk with the port side anchor seemingly missing on 22 October.[19][20] On 24 October, the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation announced that they had retrieved an anchor embedded in the seabed next to the damaged pipeline in co-operation with the Finnish Navy and Finnish Border Guard, and that Newnew Polar Bear was the prime suspect for the incident.[6]

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newnew_Polar_Bear

Of course, all lines of investigation are being kept open until they can be absolutely ruled out, and China's had a mention or two in the news here in the last few days. Nobody's jumping to conclusions, because too much doesn't make good sense. E.g. from today's Estonian news the attitude (from Finnish experts) is:

The possible involvement of a Chinese container ship in the rupturing of the Balticconnector pipeline between Estonia and Finland raises more questions than answers.
[...]
According to Teivainen, it is difficult to identify a reason why China may have deliberately ruptured the pipeline. In his view, China has more to lose than gain by doing so. However, he also pointed out that some China experts have highlighted how such crises are often seen as opportunities.

"They may think that by creating a new crisis through well-thought out actions, they can advance their interests a little. However, I don't see this as a real possibility for China to improve its position. There is much more to lose here than to gain. But who knows, it seems strange," Teivainen said.

-- https://news.err.ee/1609144835/expe...-to-lose-than-gain-from-damaging-gas-pipeline

 

[Mendel]

Like, it might still turn out there was a saboteur aboard the ship, or someone paid the captain enough to do it. But then we wouldn't know who's behind it.

The insurance company is going to want to know how the accident happened, so there's likely going to be an investigation anyway. But these can take many months.

 

[Duke]

Of course, all lines of investigation are being kept open until they can be absolutely ruled out, and China's had a mention or two in the news here in the last few days. Nobody's jumping to conclusions, because too much doesn't make good sense. E.g. from today's Estonian news the attitude (from Finnish experts) is:

The possible involvement of a Chinese container ship in the rupturing of the Balticconnector pipeline between Estonia and Finland raises more questions than answers.
[...]
According to Teivainen, it is difficult to identify a reason why China may have deliberately ruptured the pipeline. In his view, China has more to lose than gain by doing so. However, he also pointed out that some China experts have highlighted how such crises are often seen as opportunities.

"They may think that by creating a new crisis through well-thought out actions, they can advance their interests a little. However, I don't see this as a real possibility for China to improve its position. There is much more to lose here than to gain. But who knows, it seems strange," Teivainen said.

-- https://news.err.ee/1609144835/expe...-to-lose-than-gain-from-damaging-gas-pipeline

I've seen the "1.5 to 4-meter-wide dragging trail" quoted in a number of articles, including the one I posted in #2 above. What I haven't seen is a length of the dragging trail. If it's any significant length at all, say a couple miles or more, that raises the questions of how could they not know they were dragging their anchor, and why didn't they stop and raise it or even cut/release the anchor chain? To have done neither would seem to indicate either an intentional act or gross incompetence.

 

[Ann K]

yeah but the damage happened before; also Scotland isn't anywhere near the Baltic

Uh ...weather doesn't know anything about boundaries, Mendel.

 

[Mendel]

Uh ...weather doesn't know anything about boundaries, Mendel.

I have never known a storm to have an effect a week earlier and 1000 miles (1500 km) east.
Storms have an effect where and when they are, and geographically Scotland is not a Baltic region.

 

[Ann K]

I have never known a storm to have an effect a week earlier and 1000 miles (1500 km) east.
Storms have an effect where and when they are, and geographically Scotland is not a Baltic region.

Thank you for the information. I, though, am perfectly familiar with weather systems that wreak havoc from Canada to South Carolina, weather fronts that reach from Louisiana to New England, and hurricanes that hit the Atlantic coast and cause flooding a thousand miles away.

 

[FatPhil]

Seems there was nothing nefarious here, merely incompetence.

Elering said the pipeline was dragged 100 meters from where it was originally laid, and 4 kilometers of the pipeline is now dislocated.

Balticconnector crosses the Nord Stream gas pipelines 1 A and 1 B which are placed 900 meters apart and the damage is closer to 1 A.

Balticconnector and the Nord Stream 2 pipelines A and B intersect approximately 1 kilometer away.

The pipeline is now out of place at every intersection.

Last week, the Finnish authorities laid the blame for the damage on the Hong Kong-flagged Newnew Polar Bear. An anchor was found next to the pipeline and paint from the anchor was found on the damaged pipeline.

The anchor is assumed to be from Newnew Polar Bear, which was photographed with a missing anchor last month and was known to be in the area when Balticconnector was damaged.
[...]
Balticconnector was damaged in Finland's exclusive economic zone on October 8. Two communications cables were also damaged, one between Estonia and Finland, and the other between second Sweden and Estonia. A Russian cable was also damaged.

-- https://news.err.ee/1609165846/balticconnector-damage-between-nord-stream-pipelines

 

[Mendel]

Seems there was nothing nefarious here, merely incompetence.

That was on the table from the start.

The question is, was it incompetence, or sabotage masquerading as incompetence?
One way to find out is to investigate the crew of the vessel, and find out how and why this accident happened on the human end. The insurance is going to want to know.

 

[FatPhil]

That was on the table from the start.

The question is, was it incompetence, or sabotage masquerading as incompetence?
One way to find out is to investigate the crew of the vessel, and find out how and why this accident happened on the human end. The insurance is going to want to know.

I was always open to the "that's what they *want* you to believe" response