Debunked: 150 Calories of sugar leads to 11-fold increase in the prevalence of diabetes [1.1%]

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
A recent article in the British Journal of Sports Medicine^ is being widely reported, with varying degrees of accuracy. One piece of data in the article in particular seems to suggest that if you consume an extra 150 calories of sugar daily (e.g. one extra can of soda) then you get an 11-fold increase in your risk of type two diabetes:

However this is not correct, the article gives the source of this claim:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3584048/ (http://archive.is/wGmbO)
Which says:
The problem where is that what the BJSM article is describing as an increase in the prevalence of diabetes is actually an increase in the increase in the prevalence of diabetes. The key being that it's compared to "an identical 150 calories obtained from fat or protein." which increases the prevalence by 0.1%, and since 1.1% is 11x 0.1%, then that's an "11-fold increase".

Or put another way, people who consuming an extra 150 calories of sugar will, on average, have a 10.4% incidence of diabetes, compared to 9.4% for people who consume an extra 150 calories of fat or protein, or 9.3% for people who don't have that extra 150 calories. Or:


Unfortunately this is not at all clear in the numerous retellings of the story, and nor is it clear that they are talking about daily calories:
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-32417699 (http://archive.is/UXzGA)
Which leads to responses like:
http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=167257011 (http://archive.is/8OTTX)
The more the retelling strays from the original text, the more significant the error becomes:
http://www.medicaldaily.com/overeat...ot-inactivity-you-cant-outrun-bad-diet-330342 (http://archive.is/mGd7k)
http://cdanews.com/2015/04/the-root...d-to-carbohydrate-consumption-not-inactivity/ (http://archive.is/1dxKK)
Here they don't even note this is compared to other sources of calories. At this point it can't really be considered to be simply unclear, these statements are flat wrong.

And when reduced to a Tweet, the misrepresentation is obviously going to get repeated as fact:

Others are simply confusing:
http://www.mnn.com/health/fitness-well-being/blogs/you-cant-outrun-a-bad-diet-study-finds (http://archive.is/qQR96)
"11 times more likely to increase risk" is meaningless, unless you know how much it increases the risk.

These various levels of inaccurate retelling are indicative of a common problem in web journalism. Many sites simply re-tell a story obtained from another source. This in turn may well be retold. And as the writers re-word things to avoid the appearance of plagiarism, they gradually introduce errors, particularly if they do not understand the topic, or the math.

Here the original data is actually in the rather dusty study: "The relationship of sugar to population-level diabetes prevalence: an econometric analysis of repeated cross-sectional data" - so far back down the food chain of article retelling that nobody is likely to check it. At most they might go back to the BJSM article, with the rather misleading "11-fold" description, and not realize they are talking about a difference between an increase of 0.1% and 1.1%, and so they don't clarify.

Then somebody writes and article based on their article, and the error becomes assumed fact.

One of the best attempts at clarifying this was from someone who clearly understood what the numbers meant, and did a better job than the BJSM, but still unfortunately fell short:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-lustig-md/sugar-toxic_b_2759564.html (http://archive.is/bYiRh)
This is still not clear, as you still have "diabetes prevalence rose 11-fold", and it should have been "the increase in diabetes prevalence rose 11-fold".

And really using a multiple is rather meaningless, as what we are talking about is a difference in multiples. 10.4% and 9.4% vs. 9.3%. If the non sugar figure was just slightly different at 9.3%, then instead of 0.1% vs. 1.1% giving "11-fold", you'd have 0.0% vs. 1.1%, and so to be consistent you would have to say "for every excess 150 calories of sugar (say, one can of cola), there was a infinite increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes"
 
Last edited:

Dan Wilson

Senior Member.
Just for reference, a mechanism for how type II diabetes develops, the image is from Principles of Biochemistry chapter 23. A lot of factors are thought to contribute to its development, but it is thought that overconsumption or overproduction of triacylglycerols (TAGs) (fats) is a huge factor. Energy from excess sugar is often stored as glycogen or fat, so a high sugar diet could certainly contribute to the risks of developing diabetes.
 

Attachments

  • Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at 8.44.52 AM.png
    Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at 8.44.52 AM.png
    311.5 KB · Views: 305

Santa's sidekick

Senior Member
Mick, Metabunk is a gov disinfo site, we get it. But why be a shill for 'big sugar' as well? ;)

(Here, the 'wink' emoji is a sarcasm trip wire.)
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
And just to be clear, what is being debunked here is the "11-fold increase". There's still quite a significant increase in diabetes prevalence correlating with sugar availability, just nowhere near what the language suggests.
 
Thread starter Related Articles Forum Replies Date
TEEJ Debunked: Claim that Joe Biden's hand passes through microphone during White House press gaggle, 16th March 2021 Election 2020 8
bird_up Debunked: "Interdimensional being" caught on CCTV in Neza, Mexico UFOs, Aliens, Monsters, and the Paranormal 6
M Debunked: Atmospheric pressure on Mars is 9 PSI, not 0.09 PSI as claimed by NASA Science and Pseudoscience 75
Patrick Gonzalez Debunked: missing cable on Perseverance landing footage proves it is fake. General Discussion 3
TEEJ Debunked: Biden's Oval Office "Coming Apart at the Seams" [It's a Door] Election 2020 19
derrick06 Debunked: UFO over California Highway (TMZ) UFOs, Aliens, Monsters, and the Paranormal 1
P Debunked: 7 Alleged photos of aliens UFOs, Aliens, Monsters, and the Paranormal 8
Mick West Debunked: Biden signing "Blank" Executive Orders Election 2020 5
Mick West Debunked: Biden in "Fake" Oval Office Election 2020 27
P Debunked: UN hidden camera: the first UFO contact happened [Deep Fake] UFOs, Aliens, Monsters, and the Paranormal 3
Mick West Debunked: 94% of Fulton County Ballots Manually Adjudicated [It's a Process all Batches go Through] Election 2020 0
Mick West Debunked: "Missile Strike" caused Nashville Explosion General Discussion 3
Mick West Debunked: Nashville Explosion was "Across the Street" from the RV General Discussion 0
Mick West Debunked: "Error rate of 68.5% Allowable is .0008%" [Neither is True] Election 2020 4
Mick West Debunked: Claim that the Electoral College Count On Jan 6 will Change the Election Election 2020 136
Rory Debunked: Einstein wrote "blind belief in authority is the greatest enemy of truth" Quotes Debunked 12
Mick West Debunked: Navid Keshavarz-Nia's Claims of "A Sudden Rise in Slope" as Election Fraud Evidence Election 2020 5
Mick West Debunked: Trump's Claim of "1,126,940 votes created out of thin air" in PA Election 2020 8
Mick West Debunked: Crowder's "Fraud Week" Title Graphic (and Why it Matters) Election 2020 1
JFDee Debunked: Democratic senators complained about 'vote switching' by Dominion voting machines in 2019 Election 2020 2
Mendel Debunked: The Democrats are trying to take away freedom of religion Election 2020 6
H Debunked: Dr. Shiva's Scatterplot Analysis of Michigan Precincts Election 2020 43
Mick West Debunked: Suspicious "Biden Only" Ballots in Georgia Election 2020 3
Mick West Debunked: "Nancy Pelosi's long time Chief of Staff is a key executive at Dominion Voting" Election 2020 0
Mick West Debunked: Wisconsin Turnout 89% Impossible High [Actually 72%] Election 2020 1
Mick West Debunked: Video of Poll Worker "Filling In" Ballots. Election 2020 3
Mick West Debunked: Pentagon has Evidence of "Off-World Vehicles Not Made on this Earth" UFO Videos and Reports from the US Navy 14
derrick06 Debunked: United Nations creates a "NWO" website Conspiracy Theories 2
N Debunked: Google Mail icon shows linkage to Freemasons Conspiracy Theories 4
Mendel Debunked: The WHO did not take the Taiwan CDC seriously Coronavirus COVID-19 0
A Why 9/11 Truthers Are Wrong About The Facts | (Part 1 w/ Mick West) 9/11 1
Mendel Debunked: Radar Waves Affect Clouds General Discussion 4
Pumpernickel Need Debunking: Foucault's Pendulum debunked through Mach's principle (the Earth is a static object in the center of the Universe) Science and Pseudoscience 16
M Ufos arrive to the central zone of Chile. (Debunked). Skydentify - What is that Thing in the Sky? 0
Jesse3959 FE Debunked with water tube level - 187 foot building 21.2 miles away below eye level Flat Earth 0
H Debunked: Cadillac Mountain from 220 miles Flat Earth 7
Jesse3959 FE Claim Debunked: JTolan Epic Gravity Experiment - Flat earther disproves Perspective! (or his instruments.) Flat Earth 0
Mick West Debunked: DoD prepares for martial law in CONUS: Conspiracy Theories 0
Oystein Debunked: AE911T: CNBC Anchor Ron Insana claims Building 7 a Controlled Implosion 9/11 13
A Debunked: NASA tampered with the original television audio of the Apollo 11 moon landing Conspiracy Theories 1
Greylandra Debunked: media headline "Judea declares war on Germany" [boycott] Conspiracy Theories 20
Mick West Discovery Channel's "Contact: Declassified Breakthrough" was debunked 2.5 years ago UFOs, Aliens, Monsters, and the Paranormal 8
Joe Hill Debunked: "The North Face of Building 7 Was Pulled Inward" 9/11 66
A Debunked : Fake Set Moon Landing with TV Camera and Stairs Conspiracy Theories 3
Mick West Debunked: Photo with Sun Rays at Odd Angles Flat Earth 0
Staffan Debunked: Wikileaks releases unused footage of moon landing (Capricorn One movie scenes) Conspiracy Theories 2
Mick West Debunked: Neil deGrasse Tyson : "That Stuff is Flat" Flat Earth 10
Mendel Debunked: Air Map of the World 1945 is a flat Earth map Flat Earth 0
Trailblazer Debunked: Trees being cut down "because they block 5G" (tree replacement in Belgium) 5G and Other EMF Health Concerns 44
deirdre Debunked: Exemption from military service doc proves Jews had foreknowledge of WW2 (fake leaflet) General Discussion 0
Related Articles


















































Related Articles

Top