Russian drone incursions into Poland (and Lithuania)

[FatPhil]

The fog surrounding whether the repeated incursions of NATO airspace are deliberate or simply terrible navigation/targetting seems to be lifting.

I missed this at the time, back in July:

Source: https://twitter.com/i/status/1943320941292826867/embed

(The poster is a well-established historian, journalist, and political pundit, not just some rando on the internet.)
via: https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war...h_vzhe_fiksuvalis_polski_sim_karti-20169.html
Deepl translation:

Ukrainians report that SIM cards from Poland and Lithuania were found in downed Russian attack drones. In their opinion, this may mean either preparation for testing attack corridors on both countries, as it is known that they use mobile networks to correct the flight path of drones. The second option is an intensification of attacks on western Ukraine. The task for the Polish services is to find out who bought the SIM cards, because you have to register when you purchase them.

That tweet was weeks before the downing of Russian drones in southern Lithuania, though those were dismissed as accidental at the time. However, the concept came to the forefront again just last week with the Polish incursions.

Fake: Kyiv's Electronic Warfare Knocked Russian Drones Off Course Into Poland

Polish officials and allied partners have characterized the incident as a deliberate move by Russia, noting that the UAVs entered Poland from Belarus before penetrating deeper into its territory. OSINT findings, along with SIM cards from Polish and Lithuanian operators discovered in the drones, indicate a premeditated operation rather than any disruption of flight paths by Ukrainian electronic warfare.
...
On the night of September 10, 2025, at least 19 Russian drones breached Polish airspace, many entering from Belarus. Poland's military called the incident «an act of aggression,» prompting Prime Minister Donald Tusk to convene an emergency government meeting. It was also the first time NATO aircraft shot down drones over alliance territory since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, though the alliance has stopped short of classifying the strike as an attack.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Russia deliberately targeted Poland and dismissed Kremlin denials as lies. «Last night, Poland's airspace was breached 19 times by drones manufactured in Russia. The assessment of Polish and NATO air forces is that they did not veer off course, but were deliberately targeted,» Sikorski said.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told the Bundestag that Russian drones were «clearly launched intentionally» toward Polish territory, adding there was no reason to believe the incursion resulted from a navigational error.

OSINT analysts echoed that assessment. Polish defense analyst Jarosław Wolski argued that Russia deliberately routed Shahed drones through Polish territory.

«Eyewitness reports indicate a clearly plotted path for the Russian drones. This appears not to be a malfunction, coincidence, or the result of electronic warfare, but rather deliberate routing by Russia to bypass Ukrainian air defenses by flying over our territory,» Wolski said.

-- https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-ky...nocked-russian-drones-off-course-into-poland/
(Stopfake is part of the International Fact-Checking Network, run by the Poynter Institute - https://www.poynter.org/ifcn/ .)

I'm inclined to align with Pistorius - having local SIMs doesn't just happen by accident - they're clearly intending on using Polish and Lithuanian cellular networks for communication and/or navigation.

 

[captancourgette]

I believe all of the 19 drones were dummy warhead drones
https://tfiglobalnews.com/2025/09/1...ope-prioritizes-its-own-defense-over-ukraine/
Also I believe usually dummy drones make up approx half of any attack.
2^19= approx 1 in a half million chance

Sure due to it not being a coin flip (ala a random event) etc nevertheless the odds of all drones being dummy drones by chance is highly unlikely, thus I assume it's very likely the drones were deliberately sent there

 

[Gary C]

Could be intended as psychological warfare, meant to strengthen the hand of isolationists who already get nervous every time the Russians conduct another strategic weapons drill.

 

[captancourgette]

Whoops I now see I made a mistake in my reasoning/calculations.
I was taking it as each drone had 50% of being a dummy but if course it doesn't work like that, i.e it doesn't get reset back to null with each new drone.
Sorry I'm bad at explaining, but say there's 100 total drones, 50 are dummy.
1 dummy goes to Poland that means there's only a 49/99 percent chance the next one going to Poland is a dummy. Thus the odds of this happening are much higher than half a million to one.

 

[Mendel]

Thus the odds of this happening are much higher than half a million to one.

500,000:1 odds per night still means "once in 1500 years", so I think it's very unlikely either way.

 

[obiwanbenobi]

And now new probes of other kinds...

 

[FatPhil]

And now new probes of other kinds...

Are you referring to the three russian Mig-31s that violated our airspace for twelve minutes on friday? (If it was an accident, it would only be for less than a minute, it takes real effort to be there for twelve - classic salami)

 

[Mendel]

Are you referring to the three russian Mig-31s that violated our airspace for twelve minutes on friday? (If it was an accident, it would only be for less than a minute, it takes real effort to be there for twelve - classic salami)

In a similar situation 10 years ago, Turkey escalated its response to Russian salami tactics, and that put an end to it. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown

 

[Gary C]

In a similar situation 10 years ago, Turkey escalated its response to Russian salami tactics, and that put an end to it. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown

Turkey has a trump card regarding Russia, it can close the Bosporus to Russian ship traffic. Between its substantial military forces and shear size, Turkey, with NATO backing, is too big a morsel for contemporary Russia to swallow.

The Baltic states are another matter. NATO is the only thing standing between them and reabsorption into Great Russia. If Putin senses significant dissention in NATO, he might keep baiting the Baltic states just to exploit the division created but Orban and Trump. He doesn't have to start another war if he can gain further advantage through intimidation.

 

[obiwanbenobi]

Are you referring to the three russian Mig-31s that violated our airspace for twelve minutes on friday? (If it was an accident, it would only be for less than a minute, it takes real effort to be there for twelve - classic salami)

yes. and now more disruptions.

 

[gargamel]

I am intrigued!



Those drones were the regular Shahed/Geran/Gerbera kind of suicide drones that fly over Ukraine in the hundreds every day. Easily spotted, tracked and targeted, and indeed shot down. Completely different characteristics from these alleged ones over Denmark and Sweden.

Though the house damage was caused not by a crashed drone but by a Polish AA missile:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/09/16/7531126/index.amp

And I am not even particularly certain that the Polish incursion was intended, I am leaning towards it having been caused by EW (jamming), but that's a different story altogether, and there is already a huge thread about what's going down over there.

"Among the conspiracy folks, there is this theory that some, or all of the "Gerbera" (unarmed plywood/foam decoys mimicking the armed triangular/Dorito-ish Gerans, to fool air defence) that flew into Polish airspace back then were actually launched by Ukraine, as many hundreds of them have been recovered by Ukraine largely intact (they just crash nose-first once the fuel runs out and there are no explosives anywhere, to actually wreck them upon impact) and the ones found in Poland had a lot of silver tape on them, especially in the nose sections, as if they had crashed before and been repaired just a bit.

The alleged point of it being to drag NATO into the war, by any means necessary."

These sidenotes belong in this thread. I think it was due to jamming though, as stated.

 

[Mendel]

that flew into Polish airspace back then were actually launched by Ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c147065pzdzo : "Belarus, a close Russian ally, claimed the drones entered Polish airspace accidentally after their navigation systems were jammed." Which says "these are ours" and not "that's a false flag".
Ukraine wouldn't be sending these into Belarus to emerge in Poland.

 

[Gary C]

Here is a good non-partisan video from Australian shop PERUN going over the verifiable facts of the incursions into NATO's eastern flank and different ways they can be understood as a strategy.
Key points from my first watch:

• The MiG 31 incident is Russia trolling the Estonians. Hybrid warfare of a kind we've seen Russia turn to more often over the past decade.
• The multiple drones in Poland may be intended to get Poland to divert resources to its own defenses that might otherwise have gone to Ukraine.
• It takes time for NATO to effectively consult and reach a consensus after each incident. Article 4 vs Article 5
• Multiple overlapping Russian responses to NATO's reaction demonstrate an effort to control the information space.
• An actual shooting war with NATO is beyond Russia's currently available resources and not likely a near term goal.
• Briefly mentioned - Drone flaps across Scandinavia serve Russian interests even without actual Russian involvement through the confusion and distrust of official information channels these have created.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zG7sVKNP-yo

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:56 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:02 — Hybrid Warfare
00:07:08 — Foxhounds Over the Baltic
00:19:29 — Drones Over Poland and Romania
00:30:49 — Observations - NATO
00:35:06 — Responses and Evaluation?
00:49:52 — Channel Update

[edited to add timestamps provided by the presenter]

 

[FatPhil]

The MiG 31 incident is Russia trolling the Estonians. Hybrid warfare of a kind we've seen Russia turn to more often over the past decade.

Perun's always high quality, I've been meaning to give that vid a watch, but I suspect I'm aware of at least 90% of the contents already - my news feed's pretty thorough.

However, I'd call our (long history of) incident(s) "Russia trolling NATO", as *we* don't scramble in response, NATO does - whichever country's airforce that happens to be stationed here at the time (can often be two).

Some call it "trolling", some call it "randomised drills". Our response time (for a non-hot setup) is superb, we've done lots of drills.

 

[Nick/Nick]

As we watch the ongoing Russian aggression, it's clear that these drone incursions aren't mere accidents or navigational mishaps but rather a calculated move by Russia to test the resolve of NATO and undermine the security of its member states.