Article: What Should Humanity Do on the Day After an Interstellar Object is Recognized as Technological?

Gary C

Senior Member.
Is was going to skip this as a "trying to stay relevant" post by Avi Loeb, but for a rhetorical choice of wording he made that bumps this from an OpEd about doing science to a appeal directly into the paranoid wing of the UFOlogy movement.

Without justification, Loeb conflates "alien technology" with "threat", presumably to get more shares/likes/redistribution.

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Currently, there is no international organization tasked with coordinating a response across the globe. We only discuss existential threats from artificial intelligence (AI), climate change or impact by near-Earth asteroids or comets. How should we tackle the threat to Earth from alien technology?
Full article as published on Medium -
Source: https://avi-loeb.medium.com/what-should-humanity-do-on-the-day-after-an-interstellar-object-is-recognized-as-technological-ff26c6fec04d
 
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Currently, there is no international organization tasked with coordinating a response across the globe. We only discuss existential threats from artificial intelligence (AI), climate change or impact by near-Earth asteroids or comets. How should we tackle the threat to Earth from alien technology?
Yeah... only... and we're doing really great with those, especially the first two.

To be honest, what is there to do, if we got definite proof of an incoming alien ship? They might well be totally incomprehensible to us, and vastly superior in terms of technology. As much as I'd like the Federation to come true, I don't think we'd stand a chance. They might not even recognize us as sentient beings. Or decide that this planet would be much more useful without us, or any other lifeforms on it, for that matter.

So... hide in a bunker and hope for the best?
 
To be honest, what is there to do, if we got definite proof of an incoming alien ship? ... hide in a bunker and hope for the best?
I doubt a bunker would be effective, but if you got one, I guess it can't hurt.

I would think that the easiest way to take us down or out would be to stand off in the asteroid zone and throw rocks. So tech and techniques to deal with invoming asteroids might transfer. If they had super X weapons beyond our understanding, there is no real way to prepare for that.

"Give more money to the usual gang over at Big UFO who don't know anything at all about aliens or alien tech but are very interested in photos of insects, balloons and ceiling lights" is NOT an optimal plan...
 
Without justification, Loeb conflates "alien technology" with "threat", presumably to get more shares/likes/redistribution.
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Currently, there is no international organization tasked with coordinating a response across the globe. We only discuss existential threats from artificial intelligence (AI), climate change or impact by near-Earth asteroids or comets. How should we tackle the threat to Earth from alien technology?
AI and climate change are threats right now (and are things we CAN influence, although that doesn't mean we WILL). The others are things we cannot change at this time, so only our reactions can be planned for. However, significant asteroid impacts are known to have happened in fairly recent times (Tunguska, and to a much lesser effect, Chelyabinsk).

"Alien technology", we have no history with, and do not even know if we would recognize it if we saw it. And given what we do know about the age of the universe, the size of interstellar space, and the limitations of physics, dealing with such a supposed "threat" goes right down to the bottom of any sensible list of "things to worry about today". Eh, maybe it will get him a little publicity, that's all.
 
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Currently, there is no international organization tasked with coordinating a response across the globe. We only discuss existential threats from artificial intelligence (AI), climate change or impact by near-Earth asteroids or comets. How should we tackle the threat to Earth from alien technology?
AI and climate change are threats right now (and are things we CAN influence, although that doesn't mean we WILL). The others are things we cannot change at this time, so only our reactions can be planned for. However, significant asteroid impacts are known to have happened in fairly recent times (Tunguska, and to a much lesser effect, Chelyabinsk).

"Alien technology", we have no history with, and do not even know if we would recognize it if we saw it. And given what we do know about the age of the universe, the size of interstellar space, and the limitations of physics, dealing with such a supposed "threat" goes right down to the bottom of any sensible list of "things to worry about today". Eh, maybe it will get him a little publicity, that's all.
I'm reading "More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley's Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity" and one point author Adam Becker brings up is that techbros like to deflect discussions into big, insoluble questions -- what can we do to prevent rogue AIs from destroying humanity, biological immortality, are we not obligated now to consider how our decisions could affect the development of trillions of far-future human beings, are we living in a simulation? -- rather than tackling immediate real-world implications of AI, robotic workers, bitcoin-mining, etc.

Which then spins off a bigthink ecosystem of conferences, classes, books, and non-profits...
 
I'm reading "More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley's Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity" and one point author Adam Becker brings up is that techbros like to deflect discussions into big, insoluble questions -- what can we do to prevent rogue AIs from destroying humanity, biological immortality, are we not obligated now to consider how our decisions could affect the development of trillions of far-future human beings, are we living in a simulation? -- rather than tackling immediate real-world implications of AI, robotic workers, bitcoin-mining, etc.

Which then spins off a bigthink ecosystem of conferences, classes, books, and non-profits...
This is always something that's a beast to deal with because it's not intrinsically bad, or not bad. It's just neutral. When we talk about things like thinking styles, we tend to talk in absolute fashion. This style is bad or good, etc. This is a very poor way of doing that though, instead it's much more applied in context. For example, do 2 thinking styles come to the same correct conclusion, with the only difference one reaches the conclusion faster or with more understanding? The actual way to frame this is not that either or is bad, rather, one is only "good" subjectively in the sense of being faster or coming to a more refined conclusion. If we frame this in absolutist terms, we may frame Bob with the "bad" style, but also miss out on use cases where *his* thinking style actually makes more sense.

I'm not the biggest fan of how simple and linear it's framed, but Kahnemans System 1 vs System 2 thinking is a good short specific example of this. Neither is bad! Both have pros and cons, where the cons respectively express/overexpress is when applied to situations it is not efficient in. For example, Systems 2 thinking can be disruptive to casual social interactions, but is better for strategic business decision making. On the flop, System 1 is poor for strategic business decision making, but far more feasible for casual social interactions.

Our life experiences up till X point and surrounding environmental factors (societal, cultural, political, etc) all cumulatively result in what your thinking style is - at this point it is "conditioned". Basically a part of yourself.

Every style is unique in specifics but the overall dynamics aren't really, and summarily each only discusses their own largely through positive frames. BigThink ecosystem of conferences, classes, books, and nonprofits? You can find that positively framed for every thinking, behavioral, or etc style you can discern.
Then add in, say, the complex layer of discussion here. A sad reality is, without the techbros doing all that extra stuff, we likely wouldn't have quite a significant amount of the tech we have available today. Not only are these people organically thinking like that, they are also in roles that require them to think that way. There's multiple factors that condition and reinforce that being the like, only type those audiences apply.
Not only do they experience it works, if you are managing a large scale business, those types of thinking are important. The issue we see is usually instead (self-)management of the styles as a cognitive skill.
We have a term for leaders that focus too much on that tactical/lower/etc level, it's called micro-managing, most of us hate it and it's usually not very beneficial. Actual top leaders like that should be thinking from that big picture frame. Although the failure we see there is either A) they do not account for those lower level skills, which creates failures at that level or B) they do not onboard someone to account for their gap here in an administrative sense.
 
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Currently, there is no international organization tasked with coordinating a response across the globe. We only discuss existential threats from artificial intelligence (AI), climate change or impact by near-Earth asteroids or comets. How should we tackle the threat to Earth from alien technology?
Full article as published on Medium -
Source: https://avi-loeb.medium.com/what-should-humanity-do-on-the-day-after-an-interstellar-object-is-recognized-as-technological-ff26c6fec04d

As far as I am aware, the only activity he attributes to aliens so far is 1) driving through the solar system in their "motherships" that behave like comets, and 2) dropping spherules in the ocean that are identical to spherules produced by micrometeorites and natural geological processes. 1 would already be covered by how we handle the threat of impact by near-Earth asteroids or comets, and 2 doesn't seem like an existential threat. Anything beyond that is not based in actual observations.
 
Yeah... only... and we're doing really great with those, especially the first two.

To be honest, what is there to do, if we got definite proof of an incoming alien ship? They might well be totally incomprehensible to us, and vastly superior in terms of technology. As much as I'd like the Federation to come true, I don't think we'd stand a chance. They might not even recognize us as sentient beings. Or decide that this planet would be much more useful without us, or any other lifeforms on it, for that matter.

So... hide in a bunker and hope for the best?
I think we would need to break it down a little further. I believe there are some more general considerations we could make in the event we discover we are being monitored by an ETI, perhaps for a long time. If this has been an ongoing thing, then what may be changing that could potentially impact what they do, could mainly be to do with us, what we're doing. For example, we are causing an extinction event, we are warring with each other in a nuclear era, and we are developing AI. We are probably at quite a unique and pivotal time for both humanity, and maybe overall life on Earth itself. Of course they could have destroyed us easily if they wanted to, so if they've been here watching, they probably don't want to, but that doesn't mean for certain that they'd stand by and allow us to destroy a rare habitable planet's ecosystem or ourselves. So anyway, what could we do about it? There are two main prospects for how we could increase the chance of a good outcome in this event. First, we could change our trajectory to one that doesn't lead to catastrophic outcomes for us and the planet. That could potentially reduce the chance of an intervention. And it would be a win-win anyways, because even if they don't exist or plan to intervene, preventing ecological collapse or our own destruction is good for us anyways. Similarly, we could put an end to war, make progress in reducing the risk of nucear war, stop weaponizing AI, and try to get the doomsday clock down to a less ominous level. Second, as absurd as it might seem on the surface, there is a chance they would have strict rules. For us, the more advanced we get, (a) the harder it is to do anything in secret, (b) the more rules we make, (c) the more powerful we become and with that power comes risks that require regulations or safeguards. An ETI, having been sent here from far away, beyond distances where coordination with or control by the host system is practical, they may want to have many safeguards installed to enforce rules or regulations to prevent certain things. Like, maybe they don't want to interfere with native lifeforms? Maybe they don't want out of control replication, and so on. However, just because there is a system of rules, doesn't mean there aren't loopholes, or unique circumstances which shift the balance of favor. It also doesn't mean they want to follow the rules, they could try to bend or work around them like we do. Anyway, we could speculate about what kind of rules might make sense, and then there could potentially be some way we promote circumstances that are more likely in our favor under the sets of hypothetical rules that might exist in theory. I know it sounds absurd, but the possibility that we have some kind of rights according to their rules, and that there are ways we could use that to our favor might not be really that unlikely.

So, if we are being watched, given the pivotal moment we exist in, an intervention would be a possibility worth considering, and given it is us that could be the problem, an intervention could be disastrous for us. Given the most concrete thing we could do to reduce the risk of a bad outcome for us requires global cooperation (according to my opinion), if we are being monitored by an ETI, the most responsible thing to do would probably be to disclose it to the entire world, explain the situation and possible risks, and make the case we need to change our trajectory just in case it triggers an intervention.

An incoming ship is another type of circumstance, because it could represent an arrival of something new. The assumption that if they wanted to wipe us out, they could have already isn't as solid. So, while we should not assume it is an immanent threat, we should probably be prepared for it. But, I don't know what to do in response exactly. There would still be a chance it's just a new arrival from the same origin, and not a new potential threat. Who knows I guess. Trying to get more information, and trying to communicate makes sense though as a starting point.
 
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The current state of affairs is that we are only able to even recognize objects as interstellar in origin by their incoming trajectory/velocity. The first one astronomers were able to identify, Oumuamua, had already passed its point of closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) and was on its way OUT of the solar system before it was even spotted. Likewise, Loeb's current obsession, interstellar object 3i/ATLAS is already inside the orbit of Jupiter and pass between Mars and the Sun with closest approach sometime in October. That's not enough time for the usual round of governmental or scientific committees to organize a lunch, much less plan a mission.

By coincidence, 3i/ATLAS will pass within 55 million km of Jupiter on its way out early next year. NASA's Juno mission is still active at Jupiter and, according to Loeb, could be redirected to "intercept" what everyone other than Loeb is now pretty sure is a comet. To do that, it needs to make a major course adjustment in about three weeks from now. Even assuming the current condition of the Juno spacecraft would support this maneuver, three weeks is just enough time for the top management at NASA to say "you want us to do what?"

More on that last if you are interested:
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NASA Probe Could Intercept Interstellar Comet, Scientists Say

... a recent paper led by Prof. Abraham Loeb of Harvard University explores the possibility of rendezvousing with 3I/ATLAS using a mission that has been in space for years.
Source - https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-probe-could-intercept-interstellar-comet-scientists-say

As we've discussed on more than one occasion, there is no particular reason beyond the state of paranoia we currently live in to suppose ETI's might be a threat to us. There is nothing special here that warrants any sort of SciFi style alien conquest and we have no reason to believe aliens would prefer an Earth dominated by us to one dominated by cockroaches. They therefore have no reason to exterminate or to save us. Not their problem.

Our most recent discussion of likely alien attitudes is probably this one: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/aliens-good-or-bad.13250/
 
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If you think about it. For an ETI to show up for the first time now, there would seem to be a high likelihood that the reason they show up now is because of our stage of development (e.g. reaching technological status). However, if they learned of our technological status from afar, the signals tipping us off would only have maybe a little less 300 years or so travel time (carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution). If they came here in response to those signals, they'd have to originate from close enough to receive those signals and travel all the way here.

Lets say t is how long our technological status has been detectable, and r is their travel speed, then the formula constraining how close they could be would depend on their distance d, and r. And the formula would be d(1/c + 1/r) < t. Lets say t is 300 years, and r is 0.075c. Then they could originate from at most about 21 light years away. In the 50's scientists like Von Neumann drew up plans for interstellar missions that could travel up to 0.4c. The shielding problems seem probably too difficult for our current technology if travelling beyond 0.1 or so. But a very advanced civilization might be able to push those constraints further. Lets say conservatively they go a max of 0.5c. Then they could be at most 100 light years away.

Given how much older and more advanced we would expect them to be, the chance they don't already have probes of some kind monitoring us would seem extremely minuscule. They would most likely have had millions, maybe billions, of years to make a < few hundred year journey, with the technology to easily do it, and the ability to detect this planet had life on it all along.

The likelihood that a civilization close enough to come here because they noticed us, arriving now for the first time, seems so small that we could treat it as almost negligible. While the near certain circumstance would be that they have already been here in some form watching this planet for thousands to a few billion years or more. In fact, they'd likely have been monitoring the planet for longer than the human species has existed. That could be important context when considering if they are a threat, and what might trigger an intervention. They might value our planet and its biosphere, and not just us alone. Although, whenever a new fleet arrives, they could be effectively a new civilization by now because of the temporal gaps.

Another consideration, is that if you do the math for exponential growth of self-replicating probes, if we released any that can survive in space and eat massive objects like moons and planets in space, and travel from star to star, then those probes could easily cause a galactic calamity of epic proportions. It is conceivable that preventing us from doing that would be a priority.
 
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If you think about it. For an ETI to show up for the first time now, there would seem to be a high likelihood that the reason they show up now is because of our stage of development (e.g. reaching technological status). However, if they learned of our technological status from afar, the signals tipping us off would only have maybe a little less 300 years or so travel time (carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution). If they came here in response to those signals, they'd have to originate from close enough to receive those signals and travel all the way here.

Lets say t is how long our technological status has been detectable, and r is their travel speed, then the formula constraining how close they could be would depend on their distance d, and r. And the formula would be d(1/c + 1/r) < t. Lets say t is 300 years, and r is 0.075c. Then they could originate from at most about 21 light years away. In the 50's scientists like Von Neumann drew up plans for interstellar missions that could travel up to 0.4c. The shielding problems seem probably too difficult for our current technology if travelling beyond 0.1 or so. But a very advanced civilization might be able to push those constraints further. Lets say conservatively they go a max of 0.5c. Then they could be at most 100 years away.

Given how much older and more advanced we would expect them to be, the chance they don't already have probes of some kind monitoring us would seem extremely minuscule. They would most likely have had millions, maybe billions, of years to make a < 150 year journey, with the technology to easily do it, and the ability to detect this planet had life on it all along.

The likelihood that a civilization close enough to come here because they noticed us, arriving now for the first time, seems so small that we could treat it as almost negligible. While the near certain circumstance would be that they have already been here in some form watching this planet for thousands to a few billion years or more. In fact, they'd likely have been monitoring the planet for longer than the human species has existed. That could be important context when considering if they are a threat, and what might trigger an intervention. They might value our planet and its biosphere, and not just us alone. Although, whenever a new fleet arrives, they could be effectively a new civilization by now because of the temporal gaps.

Another consideration, is that if you do the math for exponential growth of self-replicating probes, if we released any that can survive in space and eat massive objects like moons and planets in space, and travel from star to star, then those probes could easily cause a galactic calamity of epic proportions. It is conceivable that preventing us from doing that would be a priority.
Earth's biosphere has been relatively stable since the end of the Cambrian giving a species looking for real estate roughly 500 million years +/- to notice the oxygenated atmosphere and move in. For it to be happening now would be a statistical fluke.

A civilization needing resources need look no farther than the nearest asteroid belt, cometary cloud, or handy rogue planet, the smaller the better. There is nothing on Earth worth the trip when the same 92 natural elements make up the entire universe.

Assuming the have technology equivalent to 1950's America, they have birth control so population pressure should not be an issue.

The concept of an alien threat is simply a reflection of human fears and insecurities.
 
Assuming the have technology equivalent to 1950's America, they have birth control so population pressure should not be an issue.

The concept of an alien threat is simply a reflection of human fears and insecurities.
It might not make sense to come here for resources (although some maximalist futurists would argue they would simply have a better use for our atoms and the ability to use them all freely), but it does make sense to come here as explorers, and it would make sense to protect rare wonders that we are a threat to. And also to protect the whole galaxy from the potential for a civilization like us to infest it with unrelenting swarms of self replicating probes.

So, I think the concept of an alien threat to humans is still significant and very much based on logic and reason.
 
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It might not make sense to come here for resources (although some maximalist futurists would argue they would simply have a better use for our atoms and the ability to use them all freely), but it does make sense to come here as explorers,
Yes, and the intentional and unintentional impact of being contacted by "explorers" have often been severe for the less technologically advanced group. I don't know if we can extrapolate from our interactions with others of our species to interactions between us and aliens -- but it is the only data we have, so far.


and it would make sense to protect rare wonders that we are a threat to.
I am not sure if we have access to many rare wonders, in galactic terms. The only thing I can think of that may be pretty unique here is the presence of life -- but in the scenario under discussion, life would not be a unique thing that we have!

And also to protect the whole galaxy from the potential for a civilization like us to infest it with unrelenting swarms of self replicating probes.
We are so far from having anything like that technology, I'm not sure this would be a concern. Of course, aliens might be insanely paranoid, from our point of view. We know nothing about them, at all, even if they exist!

So, I think the concept of an alien threat to humans is still significant and very much based on logic and reason.
I'd agree to a point, while also noting that the potential upside is also enormous -- depends on what they want, how they think, what they find offensive to the point of needing to be obliterated (TWO EYES! BLASPHEMY, DISINTEGRATE THE BLASPHEMERS!), etc. -- or what they want to do FOR us (TWO EYES! THE PERFECT NUMBER! LET US GIVE THEM GIFTS OF GREAT VALUE AND TEACH THEM HOW TO BUILD A STAR TREK FUTURE, AS WE DO FOR ALL TWO EYED SPECIES WHEN WE SO RARELY FIND THEM! LIVE LONG AND PROSPER!)

And as mentioned over in the last thread about this, it is always possible that they are totally benign but carry a rapidly spreading virus that denatures hemoglobin, or more indirectly to us, chlorophyll. Or emit a loud tone that resonates with and shatters bones. In other words, they may be extremely dangerous while being extremely friendly -- we know nothing about them, if they exist. Anything that is possible, is possible, and no real way of assigning probabilities.

To circle back to "what should we do about it," heckifino... I suppose request a very strict quarantine for our protection and theirs, if they contact us. If they are hostile, unless we can secure and control the asteroid zone, and possibly the Oort Cloud, at this point the only real option we would have would be to surrender on the best terms we can,

What can we do to get ready? Perfect the ability to divert rocks thrown at us would be a start, and would be potentially useful even if aliens never come, as sometimes rocks hit us just in the normal order of things...
 
Assuming the have technology equivalent to 1950's America, they have birth control so population pressure should not be an issue.
I'd suggest reading "A Mote In God's Eye," because it is a great book and a fun read, and because it speaks to this point.

It is possible that an alien biology will preclude contraception. An example, the hormones associated with reproduction may be necessary for continuing health, or the experience of repeated reproduction may be vital for mental health... or even necessary to stay alive. And of course there may be social taboos around the issue -- the idea of holding down their numbers may not be something they can really internalize or accept. They may be left with controlling their numbers by fighting occasional wars.


We know nothing about them, or their biology, contraception may not even be something they can do. Saying they would surely be this or that way seems, to me, to be making too much oyster stew without having ever even seen an oyster, and not knowing if there even are such a thing as oysters!
 
I read it as a teenager and found it rather unsettling. Recall however that the aliens kept destroying their own civilization which is entirely consistent with the species as it is portrayed.

My point was that we ourselves are nearing the point where our technology transcends our biology. We are currently almost able to make food directly out of industrial chemicals for prices competitive with traditional farming methods. One or two more product iteration cycles should see price drops to mass market levels.

If you are willing to posit a civilization orders of magnitude older than our own, you have to concede that few if any of the problems that beset 21st century humans would still bother them. The list of things a civilization tens of millennia beyond our could do to or with us without violating any known laws of physics already fills book and film libraries. The only serious reasons for them to send space probes here are research and paranoia. It's highly unlikely we could do anything about either until we get our planetary act together.
 
We are so far from having anything like that technology, I'm not sure this would be a concern. Of course, aliens might be insanely paranoid, from our point of view. We know nothing about them, at all, even if they exist!
True, we don't know what to expect. It all might depend on alien psychology, which we could be wildly wrong about. The best we could probably do is think of things that are more likely to be invariant to these differences. We have to make some working assumptions to even get started. But if we assume they can't communicate or travel faster than light, or time travel, then the distances, travel times, and communication delays might suggest some things.

For example, you mention we are very far from creating self-replicating probes. But how long exactly? From the perspective of a civilization that watches vague signs of our development with 100+ year time delays, by the time they notice we're burning carbon, on Earth we already have nuclear weapons and AI. If they wanted to stop us, from releasing self-replicating probes, they'd have to worry about it in advance. If they were totally ruthless and paranoid, they could wipe out every planet in reach as soon as they detect life. But that would be pretty messed up. If the threat of out of control replicating probes is real, and they're not ruthless planet killers, what could they do? They could send probes out in advance to keep an eye out and prevent it from happening on spot. But then you still have to trust those probes that you can't communicate with to get the job done. Some civilization in the middle, not totally ruthless, but a bit paranoid, might not trust that, but be kind enough to at least wait until some sign the threat is at least near shows up, and then send relativistic projectile, or if less ruthless, maybe a fresh wave of probes, now with more authority to intervene.

In terms of colonization, I don't think that makes too much sense, because the originating system can't meaningfully coordinate with what they send. They'd not be able to control it directly. And they might not know what to expect to find. They'd maybe want to avoid sending something out that causes a lot of damage. And if the motivation was to get back data, see what's here out of curiosity or something, you wouldn't want the things you send to go in and interfere with it and set it off course. You'd probably want to see things as they developed naturally, and preserve that. At least that makes the most sense to me.

So then, personally I think the two main likely interests would be, (a) see what's there, don't disturb it and get back the data, or (b) prevent what's there from becoming a threat.

And self replicating probes in theory could be a much bigger threat than most people think. I did some math, and if you send one Von Neumann probe out to another star system, and that probe produces 2 more and sends them to two other star systems, and 1,000 years passes between each such replication event (assuming they stick around), then in 10 million years you will have a lot of probes, if not for carrying capacity then so many that the entire galaxy might not even have enough atoms build them.

In terms of how precious they might find Earth to be, again who knows. But, it is conceivable that Earth is rare and more interesting/valuable to them than a primitive technological civilization like ours. One thing is that it's old. Life on Earth has been evolving for billions of years. You destroy it, it can't be replaced easily. And if they've been watching it for a long time, who knows what value it might hold to them getting to see it develop.
 
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AI and climate change are threats right now
AI is a threat in the sense smartphones are a threat, in that it changes how society operates. The threat "rogue AI" is fiction.
Billionaires are a threat to peace and human life.
Then add in, say, the complex layer of discussion here. A sad reality is, without the techbros doing all that extra stuff, we likely wouldn't have quite a significant amount of the tech we have available today.
I object to "sad", I think a techbro-less reality may be preferable. (They are a bigger threat than aliens.)


What Should Humanity Do on the Day After an Interstellar Object is Recognized as Technological? We should gather as much information on the object, and on where it came from, as possible, before we do anything else. (In military terms, do reconnaissance.) This may entail attempting to establish communication.
 
First of all, Avi Loeb's article must be understood as having the overall message of "give me money". He doesn't really care if what he says is reasonable, or could garner international consent.

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5. Violations of the agreed-upon international plan, including pirate communication or engagement attempts, will be punished by national or international authorities.
This is an authoritarian, totalitarian vision of international response that aligns with the prevailing political climate in the USA, but I doubt this approach would work at all.

If I wanted to sow discord in the UFO community, I would stress that Loeb proposes throwing anyone in jail who attempts to contact aliens mentally (new agers) or technologically (new agers with radios). We've discussed both groups on MB before.

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1. The response must reflect specifically the detailed characteristics of the threat. It is inappropriate to imagine alien technologies based on our own experience on Earth.
He writes this, but then goes on:
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13. An array of space-based interceptors should be installed in orbit around the Sun. The spacecraft closest to the path of an incoming alien device, identified in advance by the astronomical observatories, will attempt to intercept the visitor far from Earth. Based on the nature of the threat, the interceptor could employ nuclear weapons to protect Earth.
This number 13 flatly contradicts his number 1, as it's based entirely on what Loeb imagines alien motivations to be, and what he believes their technology is susceptible to.

The main effect of his article is to induce fear, irrationally.
 
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First of all, Avi Loeb's article must be understood as having the overall message of "give me money". He doesn't really care if what he says is reasonable, or could garner international consent.

External Quote:
5. Violations of the agreed-upon international plan, including pirate communication or engagement attempts, will be punished by national or international authorities.
This is an authoritarian, totalitarian vision of international response that aligns with the prevailing political climate in the USA, but I doubt this approach would work at all.

If I wanted to sow discord in the UFO community, I would stress that Loeb proposes throwing anyone in jail who attempts to contact aliens mentally (new agers) or technologically (new agers with radios). We've discussed both groups on MB before.

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1. The response must reflect specifically the detailed characteristics of the threat. It is inappropriate to imagine alien technologies based on our own experience on Earth.
He writes this, but then goes on:
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13. An array of space-based interceptors should be installed in orbit around the Sun. The spacecraft closest to the path of an incoming alien device, identified in advance by the astronomical observatories, will attempt to intercept the visitor far from Earth. Based on the nature of the threat, the interceptor could employ nuclear weapons to protect Earth.
This number 13 flatly contradicts his number 1, as it's based entirely on what Loeb imagines alien motivations to be, and what he believes their technology is susceptible to.

The main effect of his article is to indice fear, irrationally.
Loeb's Point 13. reads like a pitch for a remake of the early 70's TV series UFO.
 
Loeb's Point 13. reads like a pitch for a remake of the early 70's TV series UFO.

Everybody wants to be in charge of blowing up incoming saucers, nobody wants to be in charge of managing the budget for the movie studio the alien defense organization is using as cover: "Yuri, we can't afford another location shoot, we need the money to ship more warheads to the moon."
 
Nail them to something? :-)
I hope you've got a lot of nails:
arms.jpeg
 
Party?
It would be easily in my top 3 of most joyous moments.
Same goes with the deity thing, I'm a complete atheist but any evidence of an afterlife (most likely in a machine simulation) would be a cause for great celebration.
 
By coincidence, 3i/ATLAS will pass within 55 million km of Jupiter on its way out early next year. NASA's Juno mission is still active at Jupiter and, according to Loeb, could be redirected to "intercept" what everyone other than Loeb is now pretty sure is a comet. To do that, it needs to make a major course adjustment in about three weeks from now. Even assuming the current condition of the Juno spacecraft would support this maneuver, three weeks is just enough time for the top management at NASA to say "you want us to do what?"
In space travel, "distance" is not a relevant measure. It's velocity, particularly change in velocity (delta-V in rocket terminology). I'm not sure Juno has the delta-V to escape Jupiter, but if it does, it would likely exit with a similar velocity to that with which it entered - roughly 15 km/s relative to Jupiter. 3I/Atlas will be going over 50 km/s relative to Jupiter.

Juno had 14.5 km/s worth of delta-V when it separated from its launch vehicle. It did several maneuvers en route and at Jupiter but by far the largest single burn it did was a 541.7 m/s orbital insertion at Jupiter, which will have to be done the other direction to escape.

Juno notably hasn't photographed Jupiter's retrograde group of moons, because their relative velocity is too high for it to do useful science on them, but still lower than 3i/Atlas's would be. It's also taken only a handful of unimpressive images of the smaller prograde moons which do not have this problem. It simply isn't suited for that use, and Atlas would pose similar challenges but to a greater degree. It's designed to study Jupiter's atmosphere and when its altitude is too high to do that it is reasonably competent for the large Galilean moons, but it's not even ideal for those - hence the Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer already on its way and Europa Clipper to follow in a few weeks.
 
As an astrophysicist, I'm willing to assume Loeb is aware of those distinctions and was simplifying his comments for a general audience.
I'm pretty sure I've seen additional reporting since then stating that the craft does not have sufficient fuel remaining to achieve the delta-v needed for a flyby of 3i/ATLAS.
 
As an astrophysicist, I'm willing to assume Loeb is aware of those distinctions and was simplifying his comments for a general audience.
I trust that's "I, as an astrophysicist, am willing to assume Loeb is aware ..." rather than "I'm willing to assume Loeb, as an astrophysicist, is aware ..."? The latter we know to be the case; the former could be a new and very useful insight.
 
Full Disclosure: I am an amateur astronomer, not an astrophysicist.

I based my "assumption" on Loeb's extant body of work for which he received tenure and that such status typically comes with the presumption of a modicum of expertise in the subject matter.

I apologize for my poorly worded post.

[Tough crowd tonight, where's Rodney Dangerfield when you need him?]
 
As an astrophysicist, I'm willing to assume Loeb is aware of those distinctions and was simplifying his comments for a general audience.
I'm pretty sure I've seen additional reporting since then stating that the craft does not have sufficient fuel remaining to achieve the delta-v needed for a flyby of 3i/ATLAS.
Loeb is just keeping himself in the news. He has commented on earlier interstellar objects and we can expect him to continue doing so on every one that comes along.
His Galileo project seems to have fallen out of the news, as in having no "Latest News" since Sept 2024, so statements such as this should be expected.
 
This kind of discovery would raise enormous questions - not just scientific, but existential, cultural, and philosophical. We'd need to process it carefully, communicate honestly with the public, and avoid jumping to conclusions about intent.

Whether it's abandoned tech, a probe, or something else entirely, the fact of its existence would change everything - not through panic, but by forcing us to rethink our place in the universe. How we handle that moment will say as much about us as it does about whatever made it.
 
What's been funny to me is there's a certain set of commenters who show up on regular science posts discussing the very comety features of 3I/Atlas and argue "You can't call it a comet until all the evidence is in! You are just biased."

And then they point to Loeb and argue that everyone else is squashing scientific inquiry.
 
This kind of discovery would raise enormous questions - not just scientific, but existential, cultural, and philosophical. We'd need to process it carefully, communicate honestly with the public, and avoid jumping to conclusions about intent.

Whether it's abandoned tech, a probe, or something else entirely, the fact of its existence would change everything - not through panic, but by forcing us to rethink our place in the universe. How we handle that moment will say as much about us as it does about whatever made it.
Well, wouldn't that mostly concern people who have human exceptionalism as part of their religious or philosophical belief?

Personally, I'd feel there's not that much difference (in principle) between meeting someone from another continent, and someone from another planet.
 
Whether it's abandoned tech, a probe, or something else entirely, the fact of its existence would change everything - not through panic, but by forcing us to rethink our place in the universe. How we handle that moment will say as much about us as it does about whatever made it.
I am never sure whether worries about panic are over-stated, or under-stated. I could see it going either way.

I suppose one favor Big UFO promoters might do us would show up if an alien ship did -- the more people who think, "Ho-hum, they've been doing this for 70-some years, who cares about one more?" Those folks are not likely to panic, at least...
 
What's been funny to me is there's a certain set of commenters who show up on regular science posts discussing the very comety features of 3I/Atlas and argue "You can't call it a comet until all the evidence is in! You are just biased."

And then they point to Loeb and argue that everyone else is squashing scientific inquiry.
But that was because Loeb was "just politely asking questions".
I just noticed something about his name, does anyone else see "lion"?
(If your crap joke detector didn't go off before the comma, take it for servicing.)
 
Well, wouldn't that mostly concern people who have human exceptionalism as part of their religious or philosophical belief?

Personally, I'd feel there's not that much difference (in principle) between meeting someone from another continent, and someone from another planet.
To have the lack of self-awareness required to maintain a view of human exceptionalism in the face of evidence that some other lifeform has performed feats that we literally can only dream of is in itself an exceptional trait, and therefore perhaps I'd have no reason to criticise it.

However, because feats of interplanetary, interstellar, or intergalactic travel are incomparably more impressive than anyone from another continent is capable of, so I cannot share your notion of equivalence. I'll perhaps re-evaluate that stance if we discover another continent where they've been running on fusion power for a few centuries.
 
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