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The data exchange center website shows hourly lake elevation as coming from "satellite". But the notes refer to an elevation sensor being repaired a couple of years ago. http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/stationInfo?station_id=ORO

it is quite a change in the flow pattern, but it makes sense the way you describe it. Interesting to see the blocks of asphalt down by the teeth at the bottom of the spillway. The good news is the storm seems to be heading more south so probably we won't see much change in outflows for a...

Just looking at what happened before, it took four days of inflows averaging ~125k cfs to get the dam from 851 ft to 902. And that was with outflow of under 30,000 cfs three of the four days. Keep in mind those four days (Feb 7-10) were the tail end of an event that dumped far more rain than...

Good question. My guess would be the two questions that people here keep coming up with--concerns over the quality of the bedrock (i.e. a lot of easily eroded, weathered bedrock, or fractures) and/or concerns about the area overlain by the parking lot and how that water was eroding under the...

Looks as though the emergency spillway at Don Pedro may get used, for example: Source: https://twitter.com/TurlockID/status/833016137948422144

It appears they will go into tomorrow with the lake level around 850ft, or 2.8 million acre feet of water in the lake. Which is approximately where they were before the last storm hit and before the problem with the spillway developed (see Mick's post #69 above). And the peak inflow should be...

Plus the changing pattern of rain vs. snow. We're seeing more significant rain events as a result of warming as opposed to snow ones. All of these dams were built--and have been operated--on the assumption the big pulse of water would be from snowmelt. That may not always be the case anymore.

Wed-Sun, at least over the dam, looks clear with no precip. That's good news.

I don't know about the area rainfall but just over 6 inches fell at the dam from January 7-10.

Not sure there will be much snow since NWS Reno is saying Truckee will get torrential rain: Source: https://twitter.com/NWSReno/status/832380391545827330/photo/1

That 1.2 million acre feet might all be needed if this pans out: Source: https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/832083817338769408

On Jan 8, the lake level was at 805.5, 2254644 acre-feet. On Jan 9, 820.67, 2433696. So you could estimate the AF at the 813.6 level using those. When the lake level was 900.11, 3539318 AF. So it looks like that top between where spillway can empty, up to spilling over the emergency spillway...

I believe you can watch the presser again here: https://www.facebook.com/CADWR/videos/vb.95205192448/10154440265372449/?type=2&theater&notif_t=live_video_explicit&notif_id=1487099716253106

Croyle said a couple of times, "don't be surprised if you see it (reduced flows), don't worry if you see it". It seems they think the storms coming in won't raise the lake level and they can keep reducing it even at lower outflows, so that maybe they can get down to 850-860 even with the...

press conference now--they feel they can hold reservoir level as is with the first round of storms (i.e. it won't go back up); don't be surprised if they reduce the 100k cfs outflow when they can. Makes sense given they have to manage the downstream impacts too. of course, this is assuming...

A few comments from an ex-geologist and poli sci person, now retired from both, who has been following this since the beginning (thanks, Mick for this site!) . The press didn't pick up on it, but in one of the press conferences (I believe it was the very 'upbeat' one shortly before the...