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Indeed, we're off-topic, I said that many times. But this last discussion on the probability ladder has taken on a life of this own, it's no more connected to the rest of the thread. I agree 100% with what you said above, just it does not apply...

@Mendel: I see you gave a 'Disagree' reaction to my post above. May I ask you what you disagree with, and why? By PM if you prefer, we're always off-topic here. :hides

The point of this thread is to provide examples that even rare things are eventually documented well. Impossible things, however often they're reported, are never documented well. This distinction is important.

But then let's say we discover that fairies are real, that would cease to be defined as "supernatural". It would be just a "natural" new phenomenon.

Yes, it can. Just an example: neutrinos had never been shown to exist when Yukawa (iirc?) proposed them as an explanation for the missing momentum in beta decay. Of course Ann, but the laws of physics are not self-evident axioms: they are a...

It would be interesting to know who reported the 'drones', where they were and what direction they were looking. I don't think that information has been disclosed yet though.

Just for some broader context and to maybe help answer the question of how often you would expect to see planes over Jersey, I ran a query on adsb.aero for traffic above 15,000 ft that crossed through my hastily-drawn bounding box in the week Oct...

I take issue with that definition of "possible". If a thing has never been shown to exist, it cannot even be a candidate for an explanation for an observation, can it? I include the "supernatural" in all its supposed manifestations. There are...

This is a good question. But first: we (me included) have already abused this thread enough with a long off-topic, which is nonetheless interesting because it goes at the roots of how functional epistemologies work. May a moderator be so kind to...

It sure looks like a JAB (Just Anther Balloon) right on the edge of LIZ. In any case, since it does not do anything but drift along, I am unable to see how it is anomalous. It has an odd shape, as balloons often do. It floats along and...

Just for some broader context and to maybe help answer the question of how often you would expect to see planes over Jersey, I ran a query on adsb.aero for traffic above 15,000 ft that crossed through my hastily-drawn bounding box in the week Oct...

The flight path that passes directly over Jersey airport in a SW-NE direction shows up very clearly there. Of course, you have to wonder why locals would not be used to seeing traffic on that exact route night after night. Perhaps it is just a...

Just for some broader context and to maybe help answer the question of how often you would expect to see planes over Jersey, I ran a query on adsb.aero for traffic above 15,000 ft that crossed through my hastily-drawn bounding box in the week Oct...

The flight path that passes directly over Jersey airport in a SW-NE direction shows up very clearly there. Of course, you have to wonder why locals would not be used to seeing traffic on that exact route night after night. Perhaps it is just a...

I can assure you people are used to planes here, but drones? Couldn’t be more popular over the last few years, so the probability of a bias is there for sure.