1. jarlrmai

    jarlrmai Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 26, 2019
  2. Trailblazer

    Trailblazer Moderator Staff Member

  3. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    It looks like a plane to me. There's a bit of an optical illusion with the large camera movement at the start where the foreground is confused with the distant skyline. But it's not actually moving around, just flying slowly right to left, blinking a bit, like a plane.
     
  4. Trailblazer

    Trailblazer Moderator Staff Member

    Up to about 28 seconds it is hardly moving in relation to the distant lights (it stays more or less above the highest of those lights). Then it moves quite rapidly to the left. Consistent with a plane heading towards the camera and then turning to the right. This is a very rough and ready animation taking grabs every 5 seconds and aligning with the distant lights. You can see that from frame 7 (which is ~31 seconds into the video) the object is moving much faster to the right.

    I haven't taken masses of time to zoom and align the images perfectly but the relative motion is plain (no pun intended!) to see.

    output_FDhvBJ.
     
  5. Trailblazer

    Trailblazer Moderator Staff Member

    And I see somebody else has already done a better job of stabilising the video, showing the same thing (from Reddit comments)


    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ym8csRZ9JNo

    However, the stabilisation is off around the 9-10 second mark, where the phone is moved rapidly, making it appear that the object is moving fast too. If you compare to the distant lights, it is still almost stationary.
     
  6. jarlrmai

    jarlrmai Member

    if it's a plane do we have enough info to use flight tracker to show that? A person saying they took the video has posted, I have asked them for rough location and date/time.
     
  7. Z.W. Wolf

    Z.W. Wolf Senior Member

    Single light, with with no anti-collision strobe. Distinctive orange color. Flickering. Drifts. Gets brighter, which means it is heading toward the camera. Mysteriously disappears.

    Sky lantern, with the fire about to burn out. Relatively close; perhaps only a few hundred yards at the end. It's moving in a straight line, but diagonally to the camera. It's moving from our right to our left but also moving toward the camera. It also appears to gain altitude. It may have still been ascending slowly; hard to tell. Or might be entirely a perspective effect. As it gets closer these relative motions appear to get faster because of the perspective effect.

    It drifts from our right to our left. The fire almost goes out then re-ignites. It gets brighter, and appears to gain altitude - because it's moving toward the camera. Then the fire goes out.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
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  8. jarlrmai

    jarlrmai Member

    Watching that stabilised footage, it does look like it drifts.
     
  9. Z.W. Wolf

    Z.W. Wolf Senior Member

    The camera motion near the beginning - which some people interpret as the object accelerating then "stopping on a dime" - is not a camera pan. It's the person holding the camera stepping forward and to the left.
     
  10. jarlrmai

    jarlrmai Member

    I think an overlay line from the object to the horizon might help with that.
     
  11. Z.W. Wolf

    Z.W. Wolf Senior Member

    There's a version with sound which adds something...

    https://peervideo.net/videos/watch/73a2c09c-ae1a-49a4-8083-4ca3f27452b5

    The lantern ascended to an altitude where it found equilibrium between the air pressure inside and outside the envelope. It drifted in the wind in a straight line, but diagonal to the camera. The right to left relative motion didn't become noticeable until it got closer. It may have still been ascending, but more slowly. Hard to tell.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
  12. Z.W. Wolf

    Z.W. Wolf Senior Member



    Too bad it's out of focus.

    Sort of in focus



    The 4th of July is coming up. It's a bit early for the fireworks stands to be open, but not impossibly so. Anyway here's some MUFON members with the sky lanterns they bought at a stand.

     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
  13. Trailblazer

    Trailblazer Moderator Staff Member

    I agree that a lantern is a strong possibility. I think there is a change of direction though, as it does appear almost stationary relative to the lights on the horizon at first, before moving increasingly rapidly to the left. Possibly encountering a different wind direction or stronger wind as it ascends?

    Also I neglected to notice earlier how towards the end of the video the apparent motion is more upwards, suggesting it is quite close to the camera and passing nearer to overhead. The stabilised video is a bit unclear here, though, as it does not cope with the zoom out very well.

    I had a quick look to see if I could geolocate the video but no luck so far. The Reddit thread says it was taken in Jerome, AZ (or maybe Cottonwood), "overlooking the Verde Valley".
     
  14. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    The Verde Valley includes Cottonwood. I'd think this is taken from Jerome, looking East
    Metabunk 2019-06-27 09-01-27.
     
  15. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Rough panorama.
    Metabunk 2019-06-27 09-02-59.
     
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  16. Trailblazer

    Trailblazer Moderator Staff Member

    Maybe a close match? http://lincolncastricone.photodeck....d89536fd-the-verde-valley-from-jerome-arizona

    upload_2019-6-27_17-51-24.

    The video could have been taken from one of the buildings on the hill to the left, which is Hampshire Avenue, here: https://www.google.com/maps/@34.7484366,-112.1114875,110a,35y,71.05h,76t/data=!3m1!1e3

    upload_2019-6-27_17-59-12.


    Stepping back a bit, that hillside looks like a match, both the shape and the patches of vegetation (note especially the two prominent dark areas just below the saddle), but pinning down the exact location isn't easy. https://www.google.com/maps/@34.747...4!1sRZ-R98jPVGifm1yatpQV5A!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    upload_2019-6-27_18-10-47.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
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  17. Trailblazer

    Trailblazer Moderator Staff Member

    My best guess is that it was taken from the rear deck of one of the houses on the east side of East Avenue, around here: https://www.google.com/maps/@34.748264,-112.1105692,224m/data=!3m1!1e3

    At a couple of points (eg 0:13 and 0:37) you can see cars driving along State Route 89A in the bottom of the valley. The lights visible at the left at the end of the video seem to be the stores/studios prominent on the hilltop in the picture above.

    None of which really helps to identify the light, but it does show which direction it came from: it first appears above the centre of Cottonwood, or at least in that direction, and it moves slightly north of west. Cottonwood is about five miles away: this line is my best guess at the correct bearing to where the light first appears, based on the nearby ridgeline.

    upload_2019-6-27_21-40-4.



    The video was posted to Reddit on Tuesday June 25 at 21:08 UTC, 14:08 Arizona time, and it was described as "last night". So that means it was probably late on Monday June 24, Arizona time (UTC-7), in other words likely early morning on June 25 UTC.

    According to earth.nullschool.net, there was virtually no wind at Jerome at 0600UTC: just 1km/h and coming from 10 degrees ie just east of north.

    upload_2019-6-27_21-30-48.

    Three hours earlier, it was coming from the southwest:
    upload_2019-6-27_21-32-43.

    Which seems to be at right angles to the apparent drift of the lantern, if that's what it was. But I don't know how accurate this is in mountainous areas.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
  18. Z.W. Wolf

    Z.W. Wolf Senior Member

    I agree. Best not to say more.

    As for the wind... Tricky stuff, wind. Is there a new way to measure surface wind? Without an anemometer at a weather station, I mean? I've already tried to get the wind conditions in that area through the National Weather Service site and it either gives you data from Sedona Airport or from Love Field in Prescott. Those seem to be the nearest weather stations and they're both a dozen or so miles away in different directions. Does the site you linked to really know the surface wind direction/speed in that exact area in Jerome?

    Just for curiosity sake I've looked at 3 day records for two different weather stations in my home area... Las Vegas: At the airport and a dozen miles to the west. There are differences of as much as 90 degrees in wind direction between the two at the same time.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
  19. Trailblazer

    Trailblazer Moderator Staff Member

    No. It uses data from the NOAA's weather model. GFS, as far as I know. That weather model has grid points 18 miles apart, so the resolution isn't enough to give accurate wind directions in a given spot. If there is a strong overall flow it is probably close, but at the time in question the wind seems very light and variable across that part of Arizona.
     
  20. Scaramanga

    Scaramanga New Member

    Why does the video end just as the object is getting close enough to identify ? If there's one thing that tells me an object is not in the least bit mysterious its that sort of abrupt ending for no apparent reason...as happens with so many UFO videos. And it leads to the obvious conclusion that the object WAS identified but we're just not being shown that bit.
     
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  21. Z.W. Wolf

    Z.W. Wolf Senior Member

    It ended because the fire went out and the sky lantern disappeared from view. There was nothing more to see.
     
  22. Z.W. Wolf

    Z.W. Wolf Senior Member

    More sky lantern videos.

    This is a good one. Multiple lanterns launched from the neighborhood to the left and below. Bad language because the camera guy is apparently cursing a camera malfunction.



    This is a helicopter chasing a sky lantern. It's a clip from a TV show. That music at the beginning is familiar but I can't place it. Not Unsolved Mysteries. What show is that?



    This YT video was uploaded in June of 2008 because it was similar to the case below. But it is NOT a video from this case. There was no video in this case below.

    Edit:I've found a longer version. In this one it's even more clear what it is. It won't embed.
    https://youtu.be/nFb63xaedRs



    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/7465041.stm


    There was no video from this case, but it is interesting because this case was solved.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/7471724.stm


    In 2016 another police helicopter spotted something in the same area of Wales. This case is less clear but I suspect this is a sky lantern with the fire gone out. It's not visible to the eye but there's still enough heat for the infrared camera to see it.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...olice-helicopter-creates-twitter-speculation/

    Moving against the wind? That's a tricky call.



    Another solved case in Texas in 2013
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/all/uf...ere-just-paper-lanterns-wedding-flna2B9118584


    And another one in Richmond Virginia in 2012


    This video was uploaded by the company that sold them the lanterns. ha ha



    Also from Richmond, Virginia, in 2010.



    Just a single in Utah. Starts out pretty close to the camera. New Years Eve.



    Christmas Eve in Belgium 2103


    Utah, July of 2013



    4th of July, 2105. Not very spectacular. Fire goes out at 3:12



    4th of July, 2016 in Buckeye, Arizona


    Christmas Eve, 2018, South Carolina. Out of focus the whole time but comes with a good story


    https://www.wbtv.com/2018/12/31/im-...iful-red-sphere-off-sc-coast-says-it-was-ufo/
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2019
  23. Z.W. Wolf

    Z.W. Wolf Senior Member

    This is a good one. The best view starts around 0:50.




    Ontario,Canada Aug 2014

    Comment
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2019