Ben Harris
Member
Some old classics...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought_Reform_and_the_Psychology_of_TotalismThought Reform and the Psychology of Totalism: A Study of "Brainwashing" in China is a non-fiction book by psychiatrist Robert Jay Lifton on the psychology of brainwashing.
For me, it was a really good book, it truly captivated me.View attachment 72118
Not to bad, I would say that it gave me some new perspectives but nothing crazy
Of course, I didn't say it's bad just for my taste it could be betterFor me, it was a really good book, it truly captivated me.
Just reading the article titles was plenty of fun!Issues I'll be reading, with selected cover stories/ blurb:
I liked this one a lot too, although it's worth noting (as Kahneman himself later acknowledged) that it cites some studies which were caught up in the replication crisis (especially ironic given that one of the points Kahneman makes in Thinking, Fast and Slow is that the human brain is not naturally geared for a good intuitive grasp of statistics!), so it's worth checking which chapters are now considered more questionable than they might have been at the time of publication ."Thinking, Fast and Slow" is a decent book. Kinda crosses into pop-science self-help territory though, but has good explanations of aspects of human decision making heuristics.
External Quote:
John J. said: (...talking about the magazine Fortean Times:)
Issues I'll be reading, with selected cover stories/ blurb:
Just reading the article titles was plenty of fun!
worth pointing out that this is linked from Gelman's blog, i.e. author-sanctionedMultilevel Regression and Poststratification Case Studies
The most common method polls use for weighting, so I want to learn the details
Good point! And worth pointing out that Gelman is a legend in the Bayesian statistics world! Not sure if this is in the book or not yet, but a really cool example of this methodology is Forecasting Election With Non-Representative Pollsworth pointing out that this is linked from Gelman's blog, i.e. author-sanctioned
Getting good polling data from Xbox polls!!External Quote:Election forecasts have traditionally been based on representative polls, in which randomly sampled individuals are asked who they intend to vote for. While representative polling has historically proven to be quite effective, it comes at considerable costs of time and money. Moreover, as response rates have declined over the past several decades, the statistical benefits of representative sampling have diminished. In this paper, we show that, with proper statistical adjustment, non-representative polls can be used to generate accurate election forecasts, and that this can often be achieved faster and at a lesser expense than traditional survey methods. We demonstrate this approach by creating forecasts from a novel and highly non-representative survey dataset: a series of daily voter intention polls for the 2012 presidential election conducted on the Xbox gaming platform. After adjusting the Xbox responses via multilevel regression and poststratification, we obtain estimates which are in line with the forecasts from leading poll analysts, which were based on aggregating hundreds of traditional polls conducted during the election cycle. We conclude by arguing that non-representative polling shows promise not only for election forecasting, but also for measuring public opinion on a broad range of social, economic and cultural issues.
xbox is not dated@yoshy (from your quote)
This is 2024. Can't you figure out why that's not going to work this time? (Apart from the fact that Xbox is somewhat dated, of course.)External Quote:series of daily voter intention polls for the 2012 presidential election conducted on the Xbox gaming platform.
I might be misunderstanding your response, but I posted that as a neat example for how MRP can get useful results from a non-representative dataset.@yoshy (from your quote)
This is 2024. Can't you figure out why that's not going to work this time? (Apart from the fact that Xbox is somewhat dated, of course.)External Quote:series of daily voter intention polls for the 2012 presidential election conducted on the Xbox gaming platform.
Who plays with Xbox?xbox is not dated
and what is your point?
Ahem.Who plays with Xbox?
Just started reading a small backlog of Fortean Times magazine, something to flick through as Autumn closes in.
Who plays with Xbox?
Article: By October 2024, video game genre statistics revealed that different platforms attracted millions of users. The PlayStation 5 sold approximately 60.6 million units worldwide, while the Xbox Series X and Series S lagged behind, with around 29.7 million units sold.
However, the Nintendo Switch continued to dominate, reaching over 142.6 million consoles sold since its launch in 2017.
Ahem.
I'm sure our demographic skews male, if no longer young.
Article: Meanwhile, in the US, as of June 2024, approximately 41% of regular console gamers were female, according to respondents.
An 18 point spread? No, I don't think I'll hire you as a pollster.Sufficient to get a result with statistical methods.
That's the whole point of MRP lol. And the exact paper I posted demonstrated thatAn 18 point spread? No, I don't think I'll hire you as a pollster.
https://cdn.centerforinquiry.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/docs/SUN/SUN17.pdfExternal Quote:Recently, New Jersey MUFON member Vince Creevy chanced to buy a science- fiction book titled "Nighteyes," authored by Garfeld Reeves-Stevens, whose plot centers on a woman named Sarah and her daughter Wendy, who are abducted from their Manhattan apartment and beamed up to a UFO hovering overhead. This prompts them to contact a leading UFO-abduction expert who lives in New York City--where Hopkins lives. Later, Wendy is abducted by two Government (FBI) agents and taken to a CIA "Safe House" on Long Island, as Linda claims. Creevy, noting the similarity of the book's plot to Linda's account, brought the book to the attention of Butler and Stefula--because of their intimate familiarity with Linda's tale. Butler and Stefula discovered many more similarities.
BY A CURIOUS COINCIDENCE, THIS SCIENCE-FICTION BOOK •NIGHTEYES• WAS PUBLISHED IN APRIL 1989--SEVEN MONTHS BEFORE LINDA FIRST INFORMED HOPKINS OF HER ABDUCTION EXPERIENCE.
NRO chief: "You can't hide" from our new swarm of SpaceX-built spy satellites"You can't hide, because we're constantly looking," said Chris Scolese
because then their supporters would realize "disclosure" is bad for national security, obviouslyWhy aren't they demanding all of that should be disclosed?
because then their supporters would realize "disclosure" is bad for national security, obviously
Among other things, I have been reading the Skeptics UFO Newsletter archives recently and ended up spending quite a bit of time on issue #17 (Sept 6, 1992). The issue focuses on Budd Hopkins' Linda Napolitano abduction case ("The Queen-Bee of Abductees", as coined by Hopkins at the Albuquerque MUFON conference on July 11, 1992). I have not yet seen the Netflix doc, but I did find particularly interesting this one anecdote shared by Klass:
https://cdn.centerforinquiry.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/docs/SUN/SUN17.pdfExternal Quote:Recently, New Jersey MUFON member Vince Creevy chanced to buy a science- fiction book titled "Nighteyes," authored by Garfeld Reeves-Stevens, whose plot centers on a woman named Sarah and her daughter Wendy, who are abducted from their Manhattan apartment and beamed up to a UFO hovering overhead. This prompts them to contact a leading UFO-abduction expert who lives in New York City--where Hopkins lives. Later, Wendy is abducted by two Government (FBI) agents and taken to a CIA "Safe House" on Long Island, as Linda claims. Creevy, noting the similarity of the book's plot to Linda's account, brought the book to the attention of Butler and Stefula--because of their intimate familiarity with Linda's tale. Butler and Stefula discovered many more similarities.
BY A CURIOUS COINCIDENCE, THIS SCIENCE-FICTION BOOK •NIGHTEYES• WAS PUBLISHED IN APRIL 1989--SEVEN MONTHS BEFORE LINDA FIRST INFORMED HOPKINS OF HER ABDUCTION EXPERIENCE.
Joseph J. Stefula was MUFON's State Director for New Jersey, and his deputy was Rich Butler.
I found it interesting because I've been fascinated by the seemingly influential connection between pop culture/media and "UFOs," particularly "abductees," and this plot seems to mirror Napolitano's account.
I've since ordered "Nighteyes," and look forward to seeing how accurate Klass' summary is.
Stefula, Butler and George Hansen also published a final report on their findings about the case in 1993 that is worth a read. It was initially published in smaller UFO circulars because the big groups like MUFON and CUFOS would not publish it according to the authors.Joseph J. Stefula was MUFON's State Director for New Jersey, and his deputy was Rich Butler.
External Quote:Enclosed is our report on the much acclaimed case of the UFO abduction
of Linda Napolitano. We invite your comments.
Hopkins' claims have generated enormous publicity and have been
mentioned in the New York Times, Omni, the Wall Street Journal, and
Paris Match, among others. As such, this case is likely to have a
substantial impact on the field of ufology.
Leadership in both the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON) and the J. Allen Hynek
Center for UFO Studies (CUFOS) aggressively opposed our investigation,
and both previously refused to publish our criticisms. This raises grave
questions about the scientific and journalistic integrity of MUFON and
CUFOS.
Those organizations have many members, and we are unable to provide more
than a few copies of this paper to others. We ask you to help us with
the distribution. Please feel free to make copies of this article, post
it on electronic bulletin boards, and print it in periodicals.
External Quote:A Critique of Budd Hopkins' Case of the UFO Abduction
of
Linda Napolitano
by Joseph J. Stefula, Richard D. Butler, and George P. Hansen
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ABSTRACT: Budd Hopkins has made a number of public presentations of a
purported UFO abduction case with multiple witnesses. The primary
abductee is Linda Napolitano, who lives in an apartment building on the
lower east side of Manhattan (New York City). She claims to have been
abducted by extraterrestrial aliens from her 12th floor apartment in
November 1989. It is claimed that three witnesses in a car two blocks
away observed Linda and alien beings float out of a window and ascend
into a craft. One alleged witness was United Nations Secretary General
Javier Perez de Cuellar. It is also claimed that a woman on the Brooklyn
Bridge observed the abduction. Linda has reported nose bleeds, and one
X-ray displays an implant in her nose.
To date, Hopkins has provided no full, detailed written report, but he
did publish a couple five page articles in the September and December
1992 issues of the Mufon UFO Journal and made a presentation at the 1992
MUFON symposium. We have made use of that information as well as records
from other presentations, and we have interviewed the abductee. A number
of serious questions arose from our examination. The case has many
exotic aspects, and we have identified a science fiction novel that may
have served as the basis for elements of the story.
Several prominent leaders in ufology have become involved, and their
behavior and statements have been quite curious. Some have aggressively
attempted to suppress evidence of a purported attempted murder. The
implications for the understanding of ufology are discussed.
Budd Hopkins is the person most responsible for drawing attention to the
problem of the extraterrestrial (ET) abduction experience. His efforts
have been instrumental in stimulating both media attention and
scientific research devoted to the problem. He has written two popular
books (Missing Time, 1981, and Intruders, 1987), established the
Intruders Foundation, and has made innumerable appearances at
conferences and in the media.
Although Hopkins is neither a trained therapist, an academic, nor a
scientist, he has involved such people in his work. John E. Mack, M.D.,
a Pulitzer Prize winner and former head of the psychiatry department at
Harvard Medical School, has praised Hopkins' work and acknowledged his
indebtedness to him (Mack, 1992a, 1992b). Hopkins has collaborated with
university professors in co-authoring an article in the book Unusual
Personal Experiences (1992), which was sent to 100,000 mental health
professionals. He has testified as an expert witness at a hearing
regarding the medical competence of a physician who claims to have been
abducted (McKenna, 1992). Because of such strong endorsements and
impressive affiliations, and because of his untiring work on behalf of
abductees, Hopkins has become the single most visible figure in the UFO
abduction field. His contributions, positive or negative, will be
quickly noticed by those inside and outside ufology.
Last year, Hopkins made a number of public presentations about a
spectacular UFO abduction case occurring in November 1989 and having
multiple witnesses. The primary abductee was Linda Napolitano, a woman
living on the 12th floor of a high-rise apartment building in lower
Manhattan (New York City) [Hopkins has previously used the pseudonym
"Linda Cortile" in this case]. It is claimed that three witnesses in a
car two blocks away observed Linda and three ET aliens emerge from a
window and ascend into a craft. Further it is claimed that a woman who
was driving across the Brooklyn Bridge also saw the event.
The case has generated enormous interest and drawn international
attention. It has been discussed in the Wall Street Journal (Jefferson,
1992), Omni (Baskin, 1992), Paris Match (De Brosses, 1992), the New York
Times (Sontag, 1992), and Hopkins and Napolitano have appeared on the
television show Inside Edition. The Mufon UFO Journal labeled it "The
Abduction Case of the Century" (Stacy, 1992, p. 9). Even the technical
magazine ADVANCE for Radiologic Science Professionals carried a
discussion of Linda's nasal implant (Hatfield, 1992). We should expect
continuing coverage of the affair not only in the UFO press but also in
the major media.
In a short article previewing his 1992 MUFON symposium presentation, he
wrote: "I will be presenting what I believe to be the most important
case for establishing the objective reality of UFO abductions that I
have yet encountered" (Hopkins, 1992, p. 20). During his lecture at the
symposium he stated: "This is probably the most important case I've ever
run into in my life" (tape recorded, July 1992). In his abstract for the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Abduction Study Conference held in
June 1992 he wrote: "The importance of this case is virtually
immeasurable, as it powerfully supports both the objective reality of
UFO abductions and the accuracy of regressive hypnosis as employed with
this abductee." Because of Hopkins' renown, and because of his
evaluation, this case warrants our careful scrutiny.
Ooh, I thought I had read most of his books, but I don't know that one!Just finished reading Caves of Steel by Isaac Azimov. I've read it before, but I had to read it again.