Here's another scenario. Let's see if it holds up.
There were two bursts. There was an initial series of 3 shots. After a pause there was another series of shots - I haven't counted how many. At least 5, I would think.
Assumption: The shots in this second series were not aimed in the direction of the audience. They were wild shots at the snipers.
Evidence for that:
-The pause implies that Crooks was shifting his aim.
-There are many shots in this second burst. If they were aimed in the direction of the audience, where are the equal number of audience members wounded?
-It's reasonable to assume that Crooks changed his point of aim to the snipers in order to take them out. He could then resume aimed shots at Trump.
There were three spectators who were hit. Let's assume that they were all hit by one of the three rounds in the first series.
I'll present my new
tentative scenario, using still frames from this video:
Source: https://youtu.be/X7NRXLQLehM?si=iaF25M7UUxp-z3x7&t=60
The author of this video makes the assertion that Corey Comperatore was hit by one of the shots in the second series.
Not unreasonable. But this raises questions.
-Where did all the other rounds in that second series go?
-What really happened to this bullet after hitting this poor man?
That later depends on what kind of ammunition Crooks was using. We don't know that, yet. But's let assume that he was using ammo designed to do the most damage to an animal or human. That kind of bullet would tend to fragment after this kind of shot to hard tissue.
And isn't it reasonable to expect that an assassin would use that kind of ammo? We'll see.
My
tentative scenario:
Shot One hits David Dutch. It passes through him and hits the rail on the top right corner of the right grandstand.
Shot Two hits Corey Comperatore. The bullet fragments. One fragment hits Trump in the right ear.
Shot Three hits James Copenhaver.
Shot Three is the one we see in this photo. Trump is already reacting to the hit from the fragment of the second bullet.
"But, Z.W., you obstreperous scallywag," I hear you say. "Didn't you say that that the streak in this photo was caused by a bullet passing in front of Trump?"
Yes, I did. But that was assuming that this streak was caused by the sunlight on the bullet itself. But we've already explored the possibility that this streak is actually a "bullet trace." A kind of aerodynamic contrail. A short lasting one. If this is a bullet trace, it could appear as any length in the photo. Therefore this bullet trace may be behind and above Trump..
I'd draw a diagram using the Shot Three frame, but that's getting ahead of ourselves here. We don't know how accurate the mapping in this video really is. I've been burned once.
Just now, let's treat these frames as rough schematics, just to get an idea of what we're talking about.