Trump Shot at Rally

I haven't watched this myself but this video might be helpful for you.


Thank you. Very helpful!

Preliminary location of red arrow shots in left grandstand.

3D Map Red.png


I'm going to double check the location of the green arrow shot.

First Hit Marked.png
 
New info on possible motive

From ABC (ignore the headline - those messages have been confirmed to be from someone else)
External Quote:
Investigators also found internet searches for both Trump and President Joe Biden on the phone belonging to Crooks, sources familiar with the investigation told ABC News. Crooks had searched for the dates of Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and for those of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, the sources said.

...

"Likely, it was a combination of mental health issues, ideological beliefs and a sense of personal grievance, the same combination of factors present in almost every school shooting and mass casualty attack over the past several years. As with those incidents, the warning signs were there, they were just not recognized," Cohen said. "The threat was real but people around him did not understand what they were witnessing or how it would play out last Saturday."
Fame seeker who looked up both Trump and Biden, and Trump happened to be having a rally right nearby.

Also, stunning incompetence:

External Quote:
Law enforcement officials investigating the assassination attempt told lawmakers on Wednesday that 20 minutes had passed between the time Secret Service snipers first spotted Crooks on a rooftop and the time the first shots were fired, according to several law enforcement officials and lawmakers briefed on the matter.
(Same source as above)

And then we have this: police and secret service WERE TRAPPED BY THEIR OWN FENCES.

WTF. This is just so absurd! (Though bear in mind this is a reddit post without an attached source verifying the description)
 
amazing, isnt it? <that's not sarcasm. I cant believe it either.
It makes you realize that we don't have many assassinations simply because people haven't been trying, rather than actual security. (Though the appearance of security deters would-be assassins I'm sure.) Hopefully, this doesn't serve as motivation for others to try.
 
It makes you realize that we don't have many assassinations simply because people haven't been trying, rather than actual security. (Though the appearance of security deters would-be assassins I'm sure.) Hopefully, this doesn't serve as motivation for others to try.
i kinda doubt the majority of situations are this inept. they have snipers on the roofs and likely most teams know not let people climb up on nearby roofs.
 
who looked up both Trump and Biden

Article:
Crooks also conducted searches online about major depression disorder, administration officials told Congress during briefings Wednesday.

...
Law enforcement sources briefed on the investigation told CNN that in addition to the photos of Trump and Biden, the shooter's phone also contained pictures of congressional leaders, such as House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

There were also pictures of other politicians across the political spectrum, including Rudy Giuliani, the former Trump attorney involved in the effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and Fani Willis, the Fulton County district attorney who is prosecuting both Trump and Giuliani.
 
A good overview image from Reuters that shows the nearby buildings. Note the JCB in the foreground which was hit causing its arm to collapse.

Source: https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/CFGYTHO3RVMM7PWJYHGFM42MWM.jpg
CFGYTHO3RVMM7PWJYHGFM42MWM.jpg

External Quote:
Law enforcement sources later tell ABC News the shooter made is way onto the building by pulling himself up using an AC [air conditioning] unit
Source: https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/trump-shooting-timeline-assassination-attempt-unfolded-111974337

Note at 2:48 in that video you can see who appears to be Corey Comperatore standing, he's wearing a dark T-shirt and cap [going on descriptions given above].

And here's another visualization from The Telegraph.
1721338155900.png

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...=2ahUKEwjfx4mpwLGHAxWjVkEAHVQ6AbcQjRx6BAgAEBU
 
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Confirmed. This is the upper right hand corner of the right grandstand. (The grandstand to Trump's left. But from now on I'm calling it the right grandstand.)
First Hit Marked.png

The narration at this point in this NYT video:
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000009576871/trump-shooting-assassination-attempt.html?smid=url-share


Video analysis shows the first bullet hitting the bleachers to the right of the stage.
I marked a puff of debris in green.


I've been looking for the location of the other shooting victims and I think I've found two of them in this frame from just a fraction of a second later.

Orange Arrow - David Dutch
Purple Arrow - James Copenhaver
NYT Both.png


I'm confident of the identity of Dutch, because of his distinctive American Flag Shirt.

I'm 90% confident of Copenhaver. White beard, white shirt, black pants.



Here they are in screens shots from the video in this story:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-trump-supporters-helping-221020602.html

When viewed in the video, this is clearly the upper right hand corner of the right grandstand.

Purple Arrow - James Copenhaver lying prone.
Orange Arrow - Approximate position of Dutch, sitting.
Copenhaver A and Dutch.png




Lifting Copenhaver - White shirt, black pants
Lifting Copenhaver A.png



David Dutch - Orange Arrow
Just starting to get up, but top of head just visible
Lift Dutch 1 A.png


Being led down stairs
Dutch B A.png
 

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CFGYTHO3RVMM7PWJYHGFM42MWM.jpg

This picture (posted by @Giddierone, above) shows the 2-storey building where the NYT reports that the third sniper team was located. Its upper windows overlook the roof where the shooter was.
 
The NYT times video cuts this particular segment off very quickly and I can't find the raw footage.

First Hit Marked.png


Just after this hit on the railing, Dutch is seen to jerk forward.
NYT.png

The man I think is James Copenhaver jerks to his left.


And the segment ends abruptly, right there.

Is Dutch ducking in reaction to the sound of that shot, or has he been hit in the abdomen by another round? Or is this a through and through shot that passed through his body and then hit the rail?

I saw a report that Dutch was hit twice. Once in the liver and once in the stomach. But I can't find the darn thing again.

Here's the 3D map again. I've added 3 arrows that (approximately) mark where the bullet hit on the rail and where the two men were standing. It's just a schematic.

3D Map Arrows.png


Green- Railing
Orange - David Dutch
Purple - James Copenhaver

And the Red Arrow is where Corey Comperatore was standing. Comperatore was shielding his family when he was hit. That means he had time to assess what was happening, make a plan and get in position. That implies he was hit by the second series of shots.

The NYT video narration says:

Video analysis shows the first bullet hitting the bleachers to the right of the stage.

Is this really the first shot? What's the scenario?

- Two more rounds, possibly 3, hit this same area in rapid succession.
Which means the first 3 to 4 rounds hit way high of the intended target, due to remarkably poor aim. It's not credible that any these rounds hit Trump or came anywhere near him. This scenario doesn't make sense. It doesn't fit with the fact that Trump was hit during the first series of 3 shots.

- The first shot hit the railing due to very poor aim. A wild shot. Crooks then lowered his aim and the next shots were close to Trump. Then Crooks accidently raised his aim and went back to shooting at the top corner of the right grandstand, missing Trump with wild shots. Is that credible?

And it's too many shots. Most sources say there were three shots in the first series. Including the NYT video narration.

...three shots ring out. Followed by a volley of several more.




But what if the round that hit the rail was not the very first shot? What if it was the first shot of the second series of shots?

-Once Trump was down and shielded by the agents, Crooks changed his aim to the grandstands. He started shooting people at random. Four to 5 rounds hit spectators. Wouldn't this fit with the reported second series of shots?

This is the scenario that seems more likely to me.
 
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Where did the first 3 rounds end up?

According to this, they should have hit the lower sections of the right grandstand. A bit left of center it looks like.
Lower.png


Why wasn't anyone there hit? Dumb luck, I guess.
 
Why wasn't anyone there hit? Dumb luck, I guess.
The problem with that particular recreation video is that they render human figures far too small. It renders thousands of people in the bleachers behind Trump, but if you compare it to the actual footage upthread the crowd was not nearly as dense as depicted - yet people were unlucky enough to be shot.
Screenshot 2024-07-18 at 18.26.25.png
 
To test my theory, I have to try to destroy it.

-What if the 3D map is not accurate?

-what is the height above the ground of the shooter position

-what is the height of the stage and the height of the rounds above the stage.

-what is the height of the right grandstand

The math may show that those rounds were the ones that passed Trump.

David Dutch was shot twice, How could that jibe with a series of 3 rounds? One shot hit the rail, 2 shots hit Dutch. One hit Copenhaver. Four rounds.


But what if?:

- Dutch was not hit twice; once in the liver, once in the stomach. He was hit once and the bullet took a path through those two organs.

- Dutch was shot twice but the rail was hit once by a through and through shot.

It's very tricky to tell from this video, but could the right grandstand be lower than it appears in the 3D video? And other reconstructions?



The real test. How high is the shooter's position above the ground in relation to the right top corner of the right grandstand?
 
The problem with that particular recreation video is that they render human figures far too small. It renders thousands of people in the bleachers behind Trump, but if you compare it to the actual footage upthread the crowd was not nearly as dense as depicted - yet people were unlucky enough to be shot.
View attachment 70308

Yeah, you caught me while I was pondering.
 
The middle grandstand is higher than the two to the sides. The 3D Map does not appear to be accurate.

Lower than.png


Busted, Jamie?
Yeah, busted.

Hold on, though. What about Corey Comperatore?
 
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Dutch was not hit twice; once in the liver, once in the stomach. He was hit once and the bullet took a path through those two organs.

- Dutch was shot twice but the rail was hit once by a through and through shot.
- Dutch and/or Copenhaver were hit by a bullet that ricocheted off an iron railing. There are plenty of options.
 
The NYT times video cuts this particular segment off very quickly and I can't find the raw footage.

View attachment 70304

Just after this hit on the railing, Dutch is seen to jerk forward.
View attachment 70305
The man I think is James Copenhaver jerks to his left.


And the segment ends abruptly, right there.

Is Dutch ducking in reaction to the sound of that shot, or has he been hit in the abdomen by another round? Or is this a through and through shot that passed through his body and then hit the rail?

I saw a report that Dutch was hit twice. Once in the liver and once in the stomach. But I can't find the darn thing again.

Here's the 3D map again. I've added 3 arrows that (approximately) mark where the bullet hit on the rail and where the two men were standing. It's just a schematic.

View attachment 70306

Green- Railing
Orange - David Dutch
Purple - James Copenhaver

If Dutch and Copenhaver were hit by the rounds that passed by Trump, the raw video from which the NYT pulled that segment must show them getting hit... and going down. Did the NYT analysts not see that? Or did the NYT censor itself?

They didn't have to show it. They could have verbally described it. So what gives, NYT? It's news. You didn't report all the facts? Or you missed them?
 
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- Dutch and/or Copenhaver were hit by a bullet that ricocheted off an iron railing. There are plenty of options.
That kind of ricochet is really unlikely. It would either break up, or just keep going if it stayed together. Bullets ricochet alright; but usually off hard, flat surfaces at a slant to their direction of travel. A concrete wall, the road, a rock.



Or...

Trump was hit by a bullet fragment. A fragment of the bullet that hit Corey Comperatore, and broke up. It didn't graze Trump. It hit him; but without enough force to do more damage than break the skin. We've heard remarkably little about his wound. Did they remove a BB sized bit of metal?

That's one.

Dutch was hit by one bullet that hit his liver and stomach. Then it hit the railing after going through him. That's two.

Copenhaver was hit by a third. Adds up to 3.
 
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Why do I think the bullet that hit Corey Comperatore would break up?

I asked Chat-GPT

When considering which types of .223 Remington ammunition are likely to fragment upon penetrating a human skull, it is essential to understand that fragmentation is influenced by the bullet's design and construction. Fragmentation occurs when the bullet breaks apart into smaller pieces upon impact, increasing tissue damage but reducing penetration depth. Here are the types most likely to fragment upon penetrating a human skull:

1. Hollow Point (HP)
Description: The bullet has a hollowed-out tip.
Fragmentation: High likelihood of fragmentation due to the design promoting rapid expansion and breaking apart upon impact.
Use: Effective for self-defense due to creating extensive tissue damage.

2. Ballistic Tip (BT)
Description: The bullet has a polymer tip over a hollow cavity.
Fragmentation: Likely to fragment as the polymer tip facilitates rapid expansion and subsequent break-up of the bullet.
Use: Common in hunting and tactical scenarios where rapid incapacitation is desired.

3. Tipped MatchKing (TMK)
Description: A match-grade bullet with a polymer tip.
Fragmentation: Designed for precision, but the polymer tip can cause rapid expansion and fragmentation upon hitting hard surfaces like bone.
Use: Used in competitive shooting but also effective for self-defense due to its expansion and fragmentation characteristics.

4. Polymer Tip
Description: Similar to ballistic tip, these bullets have various designs with polymer tips.
Fragmentation: High potential for fragmentation due to the combination of rapid expansion and break-up on impact with hard surfaces.
Use: Versatile, used in hunting and tactical applications.
Factors Influencing Fragmentation
Velocity: Higher velocities increase the likelihood of fragmentation, as the impact energy is greater.
Construction: Thinner jackets and softer cores promote fragmentation, while bonded or partitioned bullets are less likely to fragment.
Less Likely to Fragment

Soft Point (SP): Typically expands without extensive fragmentation.
Partition: Designed to retain weight and penetrate deeply, with less likelihood of breaking apart.
Bonded Bullet: The bonded construction keeps the core and jacket together, reducing fragmentation.

In summary, hollow point, ballistic tip, tipped MatchKing, and other polymer tip bullets are the types of .223 Remington ammunition most likely to fragment upon penetrating a human skull. Their designs promote rapid expansion and break-up upon impact, making them suitable for scenarios where maximum tissue damage is desired.
 
External Quote:
Minutes after Saturday's shooting at a Trump rally in Butler, Pa., liberals began flooding social media platforms with conspiracy theories.

They claimed the blood on former president Donald Trump's ear was from a theatrical gel pack; that the shooting was a "false flag," perhaps coordinated by the Secret Service in collaboration with the Trump campaign; that the scene of a bloodied Trump raising his fist under an American flag was "#staged."

The shooting threw into overdrive a phenomenon dubbed "BlueAnon" — a play on the right-wing conspiracy theory QAnon — that refers to liberal conspiracy theories online. As more Americans lose trust in mainstream institutions and turn to partisan commentators and influencers for information, experts say they are seeing a big uptick in the manufacture and spread of BlueAnon conspiracy theories, a sign that the communal warping of reality is spreading well beyond the right.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...non-conspiracy-theories-trump-rally-shooting/

"BlueAnon." Now that's funny.
 
External Quote:
Polling data from Morning Consult shows 34% of registered Democrats believe it's "definitely credible" or "probably credible" that the shooting was staged, according to The Washington Free Beacon. Another 18% of Democrats don't know/aren't sure whether the shooting was real.
https://www.outkick.com/culture/donald-trump-democrats-staged-shooting-poll

Unfortunately, "Morning Consult," a left leaning "business intelligence company," is behind a pay wall, so I had to look elsewhere for the actual poll results. Quite disturbing.
GSzaWFIWMAAjQFx.pngGSzaUTMXkAARwEN.pngGSzaRxzWQAAzf2z.png

(This "Morning Consult" data was embeded within an X post from the "Outlook" link previously referenced.)

I'd never heard of "Morning Consult," here's what "Media Bias/Fact Check" says about them.

  • Overall, we rate the Morning Consult as Left-Center biased based on polling that moderately favors Democratic candidates and reasonably low-biased news reporting. We also rate them as Mostly Factual based on 74% accuracy in predictive polling.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/morning-consult/
 
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I'm completely lost in this thread. What claim are we discussing exactly?
This is a "current events" thread. @Mick West creates these for topics that he anticipates are going to generate bunk. I think the idea is to collect reliable facts, and to kinda "pre-debunk" any bunk that's going to come up—to meet it head-on, so to speak.
 
This is a "current events" thread. @Mick West creates these for topics that he anticipates are going to generate bunk.
And it is. Trump's foreshortened fingers look like a blood pack or like he's holding a pro-wrestling "blading" tool to intentionally nick his ear, and that Biden or the Left ordered it and the Secret Service let it happen, with side discussions of how only a Nikon P900 (or other specific camera) could have captured the bullet flying by, and how unlikely it is that the photographer would have happened to have exactly the right camera at exactly the right place, and such...

This thread as a collection spot for information has been very useful...
 
This is a "current events" thread. @Mick West creates these for topics that he anticipates are going to generate bunk. I think the idea is to collect reliable facts, and to kinda "pre-debunk" any bunk that's going to come up—to meet it head-on, so to speak.
That's right. I created my own theory to test it out. That Crooks was shooting randomly into the crowd. And I busted my own theory. It's clear now that the spectators were collateral damage to the three rounds fired at Trump in the first series of shots. So, in a way it's a preemptive debunk of a theory that may come forth. Not really a conspiracy theory itself as it's a reasonable scenario that doesn't involve somethin outlandish. But not valid anyway.
 
Here's another scenario. Let's see if it holds up.

There were two bursts. There was an initial series of 3 shots. After a pause there was another series of shots - I haven't counted how many. At least 5, I would think.

Assumption: The shots in this second series were not aimed in the direction of the audience. They were wild shots at the snipers.

Evidence for that:
-The pause implies that Crooks was shifting his aim.
-There are many shots in this second burst. If they were aimed in the direction of the audience, where are the equal number of audience members wounded?
-It's reasonable to assume that Crooks changed his point of aim to the snipers in order to take them out. He could then resume aimed shots at Trump.

There were three spectators who were hit. Let's assume that they were all hit by one of the three rounds in the first series.

I'll present my new tentative scenario, using still frames from this video:

Source: https://youtu.be/X7NRXLQLehM?si=iaF25M7UUxp-z3x7&t=60


The author of this video makes the assertion that Corey Comperatore was hit by one of the shots in the second series.
Second.png


Not unreasonable. But this raises questions.

-Where did all the other rounds in that second series go?
-What really happened to this bullet after hitting this poor man?

That later depends on what kind of ammunition Crooks was using. We don't know that, yet. But's let assume that he was using ammo designed to do the most damage to an animal or human. That kind of bullet would tend to fragment after this kind of shot to hard tissue.

And isn't it reasonable to expect that an assassin would use that kind of ammo? We'll see.

My tentative scenario:

Shot One hits David Dutch. It passes through him and hits the rail on the top right corner of the right grandstand.
Shot 1.png



Shot Two hits Corey Comperatore. The bullet fragments. One fragment hits Trump in the right ear.
Shot 2.png


Shot Three hits James Copenhaver.
Shot 3.png



Shot Three is the one we see in this photo. Trump is already reacting to the hit from the fragment of the second bullet.
Bullet Photo.png


"But, Z.W., you obstreperous scallywag," I hear you say. "Didn't you say that that the streak in this photo was caused by a bullet passing in front of Trump?"

Yes, I did. But that was assuming that this streak was caused by the sunlight on the bullet itself. But we've already explored the possibility that this streak is actually a "bullet trace." A kind of aerodynamic contrail. A short lasting one. If this is a bullet trace, it could appear as any length in the photo. Therefore this bullet trace may be behind and above Trump..

I'd draw a diagram using the Shot Three frame, but that's getting ahead of ourselves here. We don't know how accurate the mapping in this video really is. I've been burned once.

Just now, let's treat these frames as rough schematics, just to get an idea of what we're talking about.
 
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This is a "current events" thread. @Mick West creates these for topics that he anticipates are going to generate bunk. I think the idea is to collect reliable facts, and to kinda "pre-debunk" any bunk that's going to come up—to meet it head-on, so to speak.
I encourage people to start new thread in the Trump Shooting forum for anything new that comes out.
https://www.metabunk.org/forums/trump-shooting.65/

Please don't add any new topic to this thread.
 
I encourage people to start new thread in the Trump Shooting forum for anything new that comes out.
https://www.metabunk.org/forums/trump-shooting.65/

Please don't add any new topic to this thread.
i think any new facts the FBI gives us should go in this thread (where as the two shooter video above and zw's personal ponderings could go in their own thread so we can actually FIND factual information without mucking through pages of ponderings.
 
The "two shooter" conspiracy theories are out now. Although he doesn't have the location of one of the injured correct.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LouUbMYb7Bc&t=119s


The two bursts of shots at around 19:00 in the video do sound quite different. The video claims this shows that these are from two different guns. The final shot also sounds different. I don't know much about guns... What would be some rational explanation for this, assuming all shots are from the gun of Thomas Crooks?
 
The two bursts of shots at around 19:00 in the video do sound quite different. The video claims this shows that these are from two different guns. The final shot also sounds different. I don't know much about guns... What would be some rational explanation for this, assuming all shots are from the gun of Thomas Crooks?
The shots may sound different because the microphone may have become muffled. Or it could have been bumped and turned 180 degrees.

Do we know how many shots were fired at the shooter? Only the shot that killed him? Other shots that missed?


If they were from two different guns. Different sized rounds will sound different. The Secret Service looked to be using a much larger round than the average AR15 guy at the range. At least in my experience. Most AR15s I see shoot .223/.556, some shoot .22, some shoot 7.62 (AK47 most common I think), and then I see some .308. But the Navy Seal and Army snipers I have seen comment have said the Secret Service weapons looked to be shooting .300 Winchester Magnum round. Which is capable of superior distance and stopping power compared to the others. That .300 Winchester Magnum is gonna move a lot more air than the others.
 

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The shots may sound different because the microphone may have become muffled. Or it could have been bumped and turned 180 degrees.
I don't think it was muffled, the shouting and screaming doesn't sound different. But yeah the person filming does turn around. For the first three shots they're facing away from Crooks, and then for the next burst they are facing toward Crooks. But afaik smartphones have omnidirectional microphones, so I don't think that should cause a significant difference.

The video posits the theory that the first three shots came from inside the building that Crooks was on top of, causing them to sound more muffled in the video.
 
But yeah the person filming does turn around. For the first three shots they're facing away from Crooks, and then for the next burst they are facing toward Crooks. But afaik smartphones have omnidirectional microphones, so I don't think that should cause a significant difference.
Not always true.
Article:
But many of the modern smartphones have more than one microphone. The reason is the same reason why modern hearing aids also have more than one microphone. This allows the microphone system to be directional in the sense that it helps to reject unwanted noise if the noise is coming from the rear direction. Although this noise-rejection strategy can be very useful, it may be problematic if the noise is what you want to measure.

For example, if one wants to use an app that turns the smartphone into a sound-level meter, then this can pose problems if the smartphone is not held properly or aimed appropriately at the noise source.

Another issue is the dynamic range: these microphones distort very loud noises, so if you're holding the "microphone hole" towards the gun, the sound may become distorted. You may not perceive this on the background noise if the auto gain control (AGC) compensates for it.

So I would want more facts and fewer assumptions regarding the performance of that particular microphone.

How do other recordings of both groups of shots sound?
 
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