To Be Debunked: September 2012 Jobs Report Manipulated

Met Watch

Since this was actually a rather public conspiracy, I figured it should be noted here. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8% for the month of September, with over 870,000 jobs filled during that month - one of the largest single month gains over the last 10 years.

There was immediately mass speculation over this number, and with a little help from the media and former GE CEO Jack Welch, the conspiracy is as follows.

This job report must have been tampered with because:
1) The job numbers are extremely large compared to the last several reports and couldn't possibly have jumped that high.
2) The unemployment rate is now "conveniently" 0.1% lower than the employment rate when Obama was sworn in - therefore it must have been manipulated to help him, especially after his performance (or lack thereof) in the debates last week.
3) It's a government report and the government should never be trusted with ANYTHING.

I personally find this ridiculous and don't see how this large gain in job numbers, and corresponding drop in unemployment, is implausible. Keep in mind I do understand that the real unemployment rate is likely higher due to fewer people looking for work, but this thread discusses this particular jobs report and the speculation behind it.

Mick, made it "To Be Debunked" until an argument is presented - you can change it to Debunked at any time.

Mick West

Staff member
Here's a good article on the topic:

With the conclusion:

“No mainstream economists, as far as I’m aware, would question whether the statistics have been deliberately manipulated,” Ashworth said.
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There's also a rather large margin of error in the household figures:

The household survey and establishment survey both produce sample-based estimates
of employment and both have strengths and limitations. The establishment surveyemployment series has a smaller margin of error on the measurement of month-to-month change than the household survey because of its much larger sample size. Anover-the-month employment change of about 100,000 is statistically significant inthe establishment survey, while the threshold for a statistically significant change in the household survey is about 400,000.
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New Member
Talking about it,some conservatives are saying that the Obama Administration "tampered" with the figures shown in Friday's jobs report. The report said that thousands of jobs had been produced in Sept, and that the joblessness rate had dropped to 7.8 percent. Article resource: Financial Advice