If you hang around here long enough ... I've been talking to truthers for going on 10 years.
Believe me, I've been hanging around forums like this and talking to truthers for longer than that. My views are based on experiences that are probably as rich and varied as yours. That doesn't make me right, I know. But since you bring it up, I thought I'd mention it.
There exists in this world a group of people who are predisposed to believe conspiracy theories. Many psychological studies have shown this to be true.
I've looked at this, and I'm unimpressed with the studies. (If you have a favorite one, let me know, and maybe I can persuade you.) It's trivially true that some people suffer from mental conditions that resonate nicely with conspiracy theories. But their problems are not going to be solved by debunking. In fact, I tend to think it's irresponsible and cruel to try to do so. A lot of the "tin foil"/"crazy" rhetoric among debunkers is, as I'm sure you know, in somewhat poor taste for precisely this reason. The people who are truly beyond the reach of rational argument are often suffering terribly. They really do need professional help -- not insults to that effect.
As to the group of otherwise "normal" people who are "predisposed" to these sorts of theories, I think it's basically like arguing about movies or sports. They don't take it as seriously as we sometimes think. And it ultimately leads them to entirely mainstream political positions (like voting for one of the major parties) that people hold for complicated reasons, and in which 9/11 plays a minor role.
The truthers I find most interesting are precisely those that take it seriously, hold their views rationally, and are open to the better argument. Here, I often find myself embarrassed by the fact that I'm constructing arguments (and thought experiments) that I should just be able to refer to in the work of people more qualified than me. I feel like expert opinion has let me down. To stay on the topic of this thread: I feel the sting of that "half a page" meme. Like I say, I think it hits a mark.
I've yet to meet a single one who's issue with the "official story" could be fairly boiled down to "NIST's reports and other communications could have persuaded such person that the buildings collapsed due to fire, but, instead, due to NISTs imperfect messaging, such person instead chose to believe a set of theories completely at odds with everything in those reports and every other related government report..."
It's not the imperfect messaging but the absence of a detailed explanation, which persists to this day. More on this in the next section...
The pathway to getting conspiracy theorists to drop their chosen conspiracy theory is almost never going to be a "better" government report. ... I seriously doubt many people are going to read something like a NIST report (no matter how you propose to rewrite it) before going down that path or not. And I guess that's where we'll have to agree to disagree--you believe there are likely many such people.
I do disagree with you about this. But I'm not sure why we'd just leave it at that. There are so many historical events that don't have (successful) conspiracy theories attached to them that, leaving aside the possibility that they're actually true, there must be something in the "official" response that explains why some of them do. I want to stress that I'm not just interested in the government report -- it's the response of the whole engineering community and its representatives in the popular press that I'm critical of. NIST could certainly have done better (and they had a good sense of what they up against, as the WTC7 press conference and FAQ showed). But others could have taken up the issue.
Keep in mind that, since progressive collapse wasn't even a serious scientific puzzle, it could have been explained to laypeople from day one. Over the years, that explanation could have become ever more detailed (and even presented in terms of several likely scenarios/hypotheses) without any need for special investigations. The buildings simply behaved like our existing structural models predicted. And, yet, engineers politely stayed out of it. I can understand why conspiracy theorists found that suspicious, and why uncommitted curious minds let that fact alone sway them, at least for a while.
There are likely very, very few people who believe 911 truth without believing in several other conspiracy theories.
This is a tricky issue, though maybe a bit tangential to our main theme (maybe another thread?). If you think about it, this is actually a rational position. To think that 9/11 being an inside job is the
only time in history that such a conspiracy was organized would be weird. 911T may be (and I suspect often is) the first conspiracy theory someone takes seriously, but, since it implies a "deep state" cabal that is capable of such things, other events would be needed to confirm it. So they look at things like OKC and are reminded of JFK, and then Tonkin and Pearl Harbor, and they decide that there are enough questions (and connections) there too. In other words, they try to fit this new idea into a rational theory of history and find that it's at least possible. Now they're committed to a long-term project: to relearn history. They've run into what Norman Mailer called "a hitch in historiography".
[Update: I went ahead and started a
separate thread on this last point.]