Study: 'On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs

Critical Thinker

Senior Member.
Link to the full article that I found about this study on BBC Science


The Journal article at for a more detailed analysis.
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Senior Member.
You see the effect all the time. There is no common ground between the believers other the very basic 'chemtrails exist', '9-11 was an inside job'. 'the CIA created ISIS' etc. Even this common ground is based on nothing other than wild speculation and any evidence to back up such ideas cannot be proved and does not stand up to scrutiny. So the CT believers look for more proof, come up with different types of even more shaky evidence, and others can't even agree on the motives of the conspirators in the first place. 'Chemtrails are geo-engineering and weather warfare'... 'No, they are population control'.... 'your both wrong - they are part of project blue beam'.. (etc ad nauseum). Then its only a short step to schism in the movement, 'I'm right and all the rest are mad / shills / wrong / etc' type flame wars and the result is they can't even agree on what the real conspiracy is, let alone put forward evidence to support their claims. The result is that these conspiracies are as about as viable as a chocolate fire screen.


Active Member
Nice article. While they focus on actual collusion(s), there are several factors that would rule out colluding such as geopolitics let alone short lived collusion. Take UFOs, moon base... Why would China for instance or Russia cooperate in a coverup given they are somewhat rivals?


Senior Member.
Great article.

I usually use the Contra war against Nicaragua as an example of this model when I teach. It was (and is) ludicrous to conduct a "covert" operations comprising tens of thousands of people with the expectation that it could remain secret. And this was before cell phone, the internet, etc., when the fax machine was cutting edge technology.


Senior Member.
Some of these have awfully long ranges of estimated time to be exposed.


Senior Member.
David Icke, mentions this study, in a recent (Jan, 2016) video made by him....

Icke (as have others) blames the CIA for encouraging (or inventing) "debunking"....that the CIA coined the phrase "conspiracy theorists" after the JFK assassination, in an effort to discredit such conspiratorial thinking.
The problem with a conspiracy idea believed to be "true", is that good "evidence" is often not required. Gut or anecdotal feelings often suffices as evidence. Or, these gut feelings are the fuel to make weak evidence seem strong.
Secrets are never revealed....until they are. Then, they're no longer secrets. If they are revealed, the source of the secret-holder needs to be credible, and verifiable.
As conspiracies age with time, MATHS is a tool to estimate a conspiracy possibility....especially given the often human failure of keeping a secret, over time.
Modern therapy encourages the patient to reveal secrets, in order to be on the road to self-help and greater happiness.
Alcoholics Anonymous' 12 step program uses confession (admission of wrong) as a key tool toward sobriety.
Accused murders often confess their secrets, wanting to relieve their weighing burden, and become voluntarily and genuinely remorseful.......even though such a confession may lead to their life in prison.
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Senior Member.
I was by chance reading the same or very similar Ploss article today from

which links to this page of debunking articles

but CT will claim their conspiracy iron clad because henchmen signed one of these



Senior Member.
There's also some CTs who will take the flip side of this. They have their fake "insiders" and "whistleblowers," remember, and just last month we got a flood of "state of the movement" kind of statements all of which predicted that this is THE YEAR that it will all fall apart for "them" - just like every year. Most of the CT communities are fueled by this idea that it's only a matter of time, that soon, very soon, they'll win.

To their mind, this article isn't just right, but also proves THEM right.

Critical Thinker

Senior Member.
but CT will claim their conspiracy iron clad because henchmen signed one of these


Something that I find to be humorous is that while Donald Trump has recently been espousing more and more allegations of Conspiracies, that he requires all his employees and now campaign volunteers to sign a non-disclosure/non-disparagement agreement and that the "Republican nominee says he would consider requiring in the White House"

This would be a first for White House employees to be required to sign a non-disparagement agreement. As expected people that have access to classified information are required to sign a non-disclosure agreement, however never before has a President required a non-disparagement agreement, which would be a violation of the first amendment's guarantee of Freedom of Speech.

AP Article about Trump's required non-disclosure/non-disparagement agreement

Link to Buzzfeed article of non-disclosure agreement


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