Russia and Ukraine Current Events

LilWabbit

Senior Member
The S-300 uses semi-active radar homing: the target is illuminated by a radar and the missile homes in on the radar reflection. But it's impossible to illuminate an object on the ground with a radar (unless the radar is airborne...

Or at an elevation in the nearby topography which doesn't even have to be that high if the target landscape is mostly flat farmlands.

On a fully automated mode such errors could occur (from the same S-300 article): "All tasks – detection, tracking, target setting, target designation, development of target designation, target acquisition, maintenance, capture, tracking and missile guidance, and assessment of results of firing system – are capable of being dealt with automatically."
 

Duke

Active Member
Most SAMs use a proximity fuse, including the S-300 I assume. So if the self-destruct on this particular S-300 malfunctioned as has been theorized, regardless of whether it was still actively tracking or following an unguided ballistic trajectory, wouldn't it have detonated in the air as it approached the ground? That is, unless an overage proximity fuse failed as well.
 

NorCal Dave

Senior Member.
Now I can't do that calculation, but if that probability is infinitesimally small, you should consider the possibility that Przewodow was deliberately targeted

I don't understand.

Russia has been firing hundreds of missiles, including S300s, cruise missiles, drones and anything else at non-military and infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine for the past month, including one would presume, some near the Polish border.

Ukraine has an assortment of anti-missile countermeasures, including older Soviet era S300s, that are fired in response to the Russian barrages.

It doesn't seem odd that at least one of these old S300s might drift off course and end up in Poland, unfortunately striking near a tractor.

How, and why would either side target a Polish tractor?

How: While a Surface to Air (SA) missile designed to hit aircraft, like the old S300, can be lobbed at ground targets like a power plant, can they be successfully guided to something like a tractor on the ground? Doesn't seem likely, but I'll let other more knowledgably folks weigh in.

If the S300 is incapable of targeting something like a tractor even though the Przewodow area was targeted, then it was just an unfortunate incident that the tractor was hit. In that case it would be indistinguishable from a stray missile striking a tractor.

Why: What is served by targeting and striking 2 Polish guys on a tractor? Russia would do it just to get NATO more excited and involved? Though Putin is sometimes hard to predict, anything that increases NATO involvement seems counterproductive.

Ukraine purposely targeted Poland in a false flag operation to drag Poland further into the conflict? Poland is already one of Ukraine's biggest supporters, and a false flag operation is very risky.

Giving the number of missiles flying around in that area and the number targeting non-military areas throughout Ukraine, an unfortunate accident seems completely plausible.
 

LilWabbit

Senior Member
Giving the number of missiles flying around in that area and the number targeting non-military areas throughout Ukraine, an unfortunate accident seems completely plausible.

I think the above paragraph by Dave captures the salient point irrespective of what the exact cause and likelihood of the S-300 (or its shrapnel) hitting a tractor are.
 

Henkka

Banned
Banned
It doesn't seem odd that at least one of these old S300s might drift off course and end up in Poland
You can use the exact same logic to understand what I was saying. No, it's not odd that if lots of missiles are being fired near the border, at least one would end up in Poland.

And similarly, if lots of missiles end up in Poland, it's not odd that one would strike a person. But if only one crosses over, it's very unlikely that it would strike a person, because the area is like 99% empty fields. That is unless there's some mechanism in the missile that would make it more likely, like something that LilWabbit was suggesting. I don't know if that's the case or not.

But we can end it here, I don't think there's really anything more to say about it... There's no way for anyone here to prove if Przewodow was intentionally targeted, or if it was just an unfortunate accident.
 

DavidB66

Senior Member
There's no way for anyone here to prove if Przewodow was intentionally targeted, or if it was just an unfortunate accident.
There is a third possibility: that the missile was intended to land in Poland, perhaps in the general area of Przewodo, but not to kill anyone. A combination of intentional targeting and unfortunate accident.

I don't think this is at all likely (lack of motive, etc), but somewhat more likely than deliberately aiming to kill people, with all the complications that would involve.

Incidentally, having looked at a map of that part of Poland, I don't think it is wildly improbable that a stray missile would randomly hit a house, a vehicle, etc. It's rural, but it's not the Australian Outback. It's a fertile farming area with a lot of villages strung out along the secondary roads.
 

Duke

Active Member
 Article

Moscow may soon be deploying a new weapon in the Ukraine war – the T-14 Armata Main Battle Tank.

It is equipped with an anti-drone protection system, advanced sensors, data networking, onboard drones, and a high degree of automation. It is built on the ‘Armata’ Universal Combat Platform which can be used to create larger armoured vehicles, as per the report.

As per MSN, the tank has fully-digitised equipment and an isolated armoured capsule for the crew. It can also launch mini-drones and has an unmanned turret, which makes it less vulnerable to anti-tank missiles.
Content from External Source
https://www.firstpost.com/explainer...chines-could-be-devastating-11674211.html/amp

I remember reading about this tank (in Jane's?) back before COVID, and since Feb have been looking for some source indicating its use in Ukraine. If this Indian source is to be believed, it hasn't yet been used in Ukraine, but could be soon.

At this point of the conflict, I don't understand why the Russians would introduce T-14s into Ukraine. You'd think they'd be concerned about one of them being captured by the Ukrainians, giving NATO an opportunity to have it analyzed by Western technical experts.
 

NorCal Dave

Senior Member.
 Article

Moscow may soon be deploying a new weapon in the Ukraine war – the T-14 Armata Main Battle Tank.

It is equipped with an anti-drone protection system, advanced sensors, data networking, onboard drones, and a high degree of automation. It is built on the ‘Armata’ Universal Combat Platform which can be used to create larger armoured vehicles, as per the report.

As per MSN, the tank has fully-digitised equipment and an isolated armoured capsule for the crew. It can also launch mini-drones and has an unmanned turret, which makes it less vulnerable to anti-tank missiles.
Content from External Source
https://www.firstpost.com/explainer...chines-could-be-devastating-11674211.html/amp

I remember reading about this tank (in Jane's?) back before COVID, and since Feb have been looking for some source indicating its use in Ukraine. If this Indian source is to be believed, it hasn't yet been used in Ukraine, but could be soon.

At this point of the conflict, I don't understand why the Russians would introduce T-14s into Ukraine. You'd think they'd be concerned about one of them being captured by the Ukrainians, giving NATO an opportunity to have it analyzed by Western technical experts.

I wasn't sure I would post these, but now that you bring up the T-14, I'll share a few.

While exactly what's happening on the ground in Ukraine may be unclear, I think it's safe to say it's not going well for Russia. The source ISW, which Mendel often shares here, seems to be reliable and has shown Russia in multiple retreats and pull backs over the last 2 months. Ukraine clerly seems to be on the offensive.

However, I have been getting multiple stories on my news feed suggesting the Russians are in fact winning and are about to use deadly new weapons, like the mighty T-14. All these stories come from the Hindustan Times of India. At first I started noticing them because of the almost comic book like headlines for the stories. Going on memory they included stuff like: "Putin's Men Have the Last Laugh!" or "Putin's men Rampaging! Zelinsky Panics!".

Then one about the T-14 popped up yesterday. I try to keep up and thought the T-90 was Russia's most advanced tank, but after having a few of them captured or destroyed, Russia was pulling out old moth-balled T-72s. What's a T-14? According to the Hindustan Times it's about the most badass tank there is. They titled this video about it, "Putin Twists the Knife". Lots of rock music over video of a T-14 doing tank like things with graphics about all the specs. You'll have to click on the actual link on these, I used a screen grab to show how they appear on the feed:

1669159953431.png
https://www.msn.com/en-in/video/wat...k-seen-at-training-ground-details/vi-AA14lTmN

So, I looked it up. Seems Russian's MAY get some T-14's sometime after next year or maybe not at all (bold by me):

However, as of 2021, Russian state-owned TASS media agency claimed the Armata had been expected to begin serial production in 2022, with delivery of a test batch of 100 to the 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor Rifle Division expected to begin in 2022.[15] The tanks are planned to only be officially transferred following completion of all state tests.[16][17][18][19] In December 2021 the Russian state conglomerate Rostec stated that serial production had commenced,[4] with "more than 40" Armata tanks anticipated to be delivered to Russian troops after 2023.[20]

In November 2022 Moscow Times and Newsweek reported that the state program under which the T-14 Armata is being developed has been halted.[21][22]
Content from External Source
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-14_Armata

Footnote 22 takes one to a Newsweek article:

The plan promised cutting-edge T-14 Armata tanks, whose production has stalled, aircraft and thousands of helicopters. But the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine with old equipment and is believed to be exhausting its stocks of high-precision missiles.

Vedomosti reported that the terms of the SAP had been "suspended" to focus on the needs of the war in Ukraine.

"The fact that Russia is doing that publicly and announcing it is significant," said Steven Horrell, a non-resident senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

"It highlights something other than the 'everything is going our way' narrative the Kremlin has been putting out," he told Newsweek.
Content from External Source
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-armaments-putin-weapons-priorities-1760426

So, maybe there is some operational T-14s out there, but it doesn't sound like they'll be deployed anytime soon.

The other Hindustan Times articles/videos are like this one below. It proports to show a Ukrainian US built MRAP/BMP being destroyed from the air. Maybe it shows that, maybe not. But, like many of the others I saw, it seems to suggest that this one incident is indicative of the whole war. If Putin's men can take out a US BMP, then Russia must be handing it to Ukraine.

1669160223774.png
https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/wat...sedgntp&cvid=ce444380647741ddbe4614dc6c5b2e3f

I looked up the Hindustan Times, thinking that maybe the headlines were lost in translation, but it appears to be an English language paper aligned with the Congress party and founded at the end of the Raj:

In review, The Hindustan Times reports national and international news with a left-leaning bias. Articles and headlines contain emotionally loaded language such as this Thackeray under pressure from Bollywood’ mafia’ to derail Sushant probe: Sushil Modi. This story, like most, lacks hyperlinked sourcing. There is low bias when reporting on international news as they use credible sources such as Reuters, AP and maintain factual reporting.

Editorially, they generally align with The Congress Party, the liberal opposition party to Modi’s conservative BJP party. The Congress Party advocates liberty, social justice, equality, the welfare state, and a progressive and secular society. We have also found evidence of promoting Pro-Russian propaganda such as this ‘The plunder of India’: Putin slams West as Russia annexes Ukraine’s 4 regions. In general, the Hindustan Times aligns left politically and has several examples of promoting misinformation, as seen below in the failed fact checks.

Overall, we rate the Hindustan Times Left-Center Biased and questionable due to poor sourcing, numerous failed fact checks, and the promotion of propaganda. (M. Huitsing 9/5/2017) Updated (09/30/2022)
Content from External Source
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/hindustan-times/

Here's todays blurb.
1669159781932.png
https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/wat...sedgntp&cvid=ce444380647741ddbe4614dc6c5b2e3f

I don't pretend to understand Indian politics or why this paper would, if not align with Putin, give him and the Russians a positive spin.
 

Duke

Active Member
@NorCal Dave:
A lot to unpack in your post #729, especially the question of India's position relative to Russia in Ukraine. Your paragraph from that post (see below), however left me scratching my head.

The other Hindustan Times articles/videos are like this one below. It proports to show a Ukrainian US built MRAP/BMP being destroyed from the air. Maybe it shows that, maybe not. But, like many of the others I saw, it seems to suggest that this one incident is indicative of the whole war. If Putin's men can take out a US BMP, then Russia must be handing it to Ukraine.

The MRAP and BMP are two different vehicles. The US made MRAP is a mine/IED resistant, lightly armored transport vehicle developed for use in Iraq and Afghanistan. I would not be surprised if we provided some of them to Ukraine. The BMP is a Russian designed infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) roughly comparable to the US Bradley. There have been BMPs in Ukrainian service for years. There are no US BMPs, but the US could have facilitated the transfer of, then refurbished, some of them from former Warsaw Pact nations like Poland or Hungary to Ukraine. What they do have in common is they are both lightly armored, so either of them being taken out by the Russians, especially from above where their armor is thinnest, as the video shows is no surprise.

size1-army.mil-51994-2009-10-01-091005.jpg
US MRAP

bmp2.jpg
Russian BMP
 
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captancourgette

Active Member
India is the largest buyer of Russian Weapons in the world. roughly half their weapons come from there, It dwarves what Pakistan gets from Russia, Pakistan gets most from China. Perhaps the Media there wants to convince themselves/others that they havent brought lemons?

Adding to a long list of why invading Ukraine was a very bad idea(*) by Putin. Its been a terrible showcase for their arms industry (The 2nd biggest after the USA in the world)

(*) The only recent decision thats close at least per capita, would be the World Cup in Qatar, $220 billion cost yet I would argue peoples perceptions (at least in the west) are more negative of the country than if they spent $0. Before most people before wouldnt of had an opinion about that land. To put that number in perspective the boondoggled SLS mission that is currently winging its way to the moon has cost $23 billion with all its delays and cost overruns. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System
 

Duke

Active Member
India is the largest buyer of Russian Weapons in the world. roughly half their weapons come from there, It dwarves what Pakistan gets from Russia, Pakistan gets most from China. Perhaps the Media there wants to convince themselves/others that they havent brought lemons?
This came about as the result of the 1965 India v Pakistan War. Prior to this war, the Indians bought most of their military hardware from the UK, Pakistan bought most of their's from the US. When both Western countries placed an arms embargo on the two nations, the Indians turned to the Soviets and the Pakistanis turned to China.

Since the two Communist nations were at odds over border disputes (that led to a deadly series of skirmishes between them in the mid/late 60s), each was happy to add a "client state" in the region and supply them with weapons. Also, the Chinese and Indians had fought a brief border war in 1962, so supplying weapons to Pakistan strengthened their own position relative to India.

Adding to a long list of why invading Ukraine was a very bad idea(*) by Putin. Its been a terrible showcase for their arms industry (The 2nd biggest after the USA in the world)
A fair point, and one that has been made a number of times in the past, particularly in the Middle East in combat against the Israelis and US. Yet nations still buy Russian weaponry.

Soviet/Russian arms are cheaper to buy than Western weapons, but their logistical support for their customers is historically abysmal.
 
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NorCal Dave

Senior Member.
Your paragraph from that post (see below), however left me scratching my head
I appear to have confused myself. I was getting 3-4 of these a day popping up. There was one about some US made equipment being hit and I thought the video showed file footage captioned "MRAP". Must have been a different one, but the gist is the same. Here is 1 piece of equipment being hit, therefore the war is going bad for Zelinsky.

What's odd is that if I remember something close to what the headline was, I can find the video/article searching the MicroSoft news feed. But they're very difficult to find on the actual Hindustan Times website.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
Premature reports of Ukrainian forces capturing territory on the left bank of the Dnipro River provoked backlash in the Russian information space. Reports emerged that Ukrainian forces had reached Nova Kakhovka, Oleshky (about 10km southeast of Kherson City), and the Kinburn Spit, but Ukrainian officials later refuted these claims.
Well, now they're acknowledging the Kinburn Spit:
Article:
Ukrainian officials continued to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces are conducting operations on the Kinburn Spit on December 1. Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing to conduct operations on the Kinburn Spit and that Ukrainian forces have not yet liberated the area.
 

Duke

Active Member
Article:

Ukraine's embassy in Madrid received a parcel containing animal eyes on Friday, the latest in a series of similar "bloody packages" sent to its diplomatic missions across Europe, Ukrainian and Spanish officials said.

The bloody missives follow the reception of six letter bombs sent in the past week to addresses in Spain including Ukraine's embassy in Madrid, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the U.S. Embassy to Madrid, prompting Spain to step up security.
Content from External Source
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...kages-containing-animal-eyes-kyiv-2022-12-02/

Letter bombs I get, but animal eyes? If there is some message or symbolic meaning in sending bloody eyes, it's beyond me. Is it perhaps something from Slavic culture or folklore?
 

jplaza

Active Member
Article:

Ukraine's embassy in Madrid received a parcel containing animal eyes on Friday, the latest in a series of similar "bloody packages" sent to its diplomatic missions across Europe, Ukrainian and Spanish officials said.

The bloody missives follow the reception of six letter bombs sent in the past week to addresses in Spain including Ukraine's embassy in Madrid, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the U.S. Embassy to Madrid, prompting Spain to step up security.
Content from External Source
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...kages-containing-animal-eyes-kyiv-2022-12-02/

Letter bombs I get, but animal eyes? If there is some message or symbolic meaning in sending bloody eyes, it's beyond me. Is it perhaps something from Slavic culture or folklore?

https://cadenaser.com/nacional/2022...tra-vez-en-la-embajada-de-ucrania-cadena-ser/
Una nueva carta ha sido interceptada este viernes en la sede de la embajada de Ucrania en Madrid, (...) Inicialmente la Policía lo comparó con el primer paquete y aseguraron que era similar a los anteriormente recibidos. Pero, tras las comprobaciones de los TEDAX, se ha verificado que no contenía ningún tipo de explosivos. Sí contenía, sin embargo, un ojo de animal aplastado. Interior lo relaciona ahora con el resto de cartas que se están recibiendo en otras embajadas ucranianas de Europa. La Policía llega a esa conclusión por su franqueo, que no es español.

A new parcel has been intercepted this Friday at the ukranian embassy in Madrid, (...) Initially, Police compared it with the first parcel and said it was similar to those previously received. But after investigation by TEDAX(*), it was verified that it did not contain any kind of explosive. It did contain, however, a smashed eye of an animal. Interior Ministry now relates it with the other letters being received in other ukranian embassies in Europe. The police reaches this conclusion due to postage not being spanish.
Content from External Source
(*) TEDAX: Explosive deactivation units.

I can't find any reference now, what I heard this afternoon on the radio is that Police thinks this parcel containing eyes would be unrelated to the ones with explosives received in the last days at different places in Spain. Those were sent from somewhere Spain, it seems.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
The Russian Ministry of Defense and several milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces used UAVs to strike the Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast (approximately 315 miles from Ukrainian territory) and the Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast (approximately 285 miles from Ukrainian territory).[5] Both airbases house elements of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, which Russia has employed to strike Ukraine throughout the war. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak tweeted that the Kremlin should have known that “if something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point.” Still, Ukrainian authorities have not formally claimed responsibility for the strikes as of publication.

Some people theorize that the UAVs were launched from Russian territory. However, evidence regarding the type of UAV and the launch location seems to be absent?
 

DavidB66

Senior Member
Some people theorize that the UAVs were launched from Russian territory. However, evidence regarding the type of UAV and the launch location seems to be absent?
According to a Reuters report (below), official Russian sources are claiming that the UAVs were old Soviet-era drones, maybe adapted from a reconnaissance role. I don't think there is anything very remarkable about the range of the attacks (a few hundred miles). Several modern drones (Predator, Reaper, the Turkish Bayraktar, and the Iranian Shahed) have potential ranges of 1000 miles or more. The surprising thing is that the Russians seem to have been so unprepared. Photographs of the airfields (but maybe not recent) show lots of strategic bombers out in the open lined up in neat rows. One can only imagine what the Israeli air force would do to that set-up!

From Reuters:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...ainian-rebuff-to-missile-barrages/ar-AA14YoqX
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Neither side has produced concrete evidence of what kinds of weapons were used and who was behind the attacks.

But the Russian statements suggested Ukraine may have used a Tupolev Tu-141 or Tu-143 reconnaissance drone, which date to the 1970s but could have been carrying explosives this time, according to some experts.

"It would be visible on radars: the question arises of how this drone could fly from Ukraine through Russian territory and not be visible to S-400 units and hit strategic bombers at a military site," said Oleksandr Musiyenko, another Kyiv analyst.
Content from External Source
 

Duke

Active Member
Article:

Over the last two months, support for the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine has dropped dramatically among the Russian population — a roughly 20 percent drop, according to several polls, including one conducted for the Kremlin. And as that support drops, Russia’s leading propagandists are making a new case for continuing the war.

It’s no longer only about “denazification,” “demilitarization” or the often-heard rants about saving Russia from the evil, soulless West. Now the most influential voices in the country are pointing to the likelihood of a war-crimes tribunal and warning that — in the event of Russia’s defeat — it’s not just President Vladimir Putin and his top lieutenants who would be charged; even ordinary Russians will be judged.

In other words, if you’re a Russian citizen, you’d better back this war to the hilt and to the end. Otherwise, you might find yourself detained and prosecuted by “the West.”
Content from External Source
https://www.grid.news/story/global/...we-dont-win-well-all-be-tried-for-war-crimes/

Didn't see that coming, not exactly a morale builder for the home crowd. Would the host of Russia's "most popular political talk show" have broached this topic on air with the head of the RT channel without Kremlin approval? I have my doubts.
 

derwoodii

Senior Member.
https://www.facebook.com/worldmilitaryphotosdotcom

Satellite image of Russia's Engels-2 airbase shows one Tu-95MS Strategic bomber was damaged by the Ukrainian drone attack yesterday.
It is believed that weaponized Tu-141 drones were used to attack the two airbases in Russia yesterday resulting in a Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS being damaged which will likely be out of service for some time.
Does make people question the famed Russian Integrated Air Defense System that a recon drone from the 80s managed to hit strategic airbases deep inside Russia.

317904753_500970722128749_5855399592467327732_n.jpg
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Does make people question the famed Russian Integrated Air Defense System that a recon drone from the 80s managed to hit strategic airbases deep inside Russia.
well, I'm wondering how many of the SAM units that comprise this system have been moved to Ukraine, where they're sorely needed

if I was given to speculation, I'd wonder how much of the Russian generals' meeting regarding nuclear war back in October was concerned with the possibility that Russia has lost its capability to strategically protect itself, and that Putin de-escalated his nuclear threats as a result. This is definitely one for future historians to research and unravel....

the strike may prompt Russia to withdraw some SAM systemy from the front lines, giving Ukraine a better shot at air superiority.
 

Duke

Active Member
https://www.facebook.com/worldmilitaryphotosdotcom

Satellite image of Russia's Engels-2 airbase shows one Tu-95MS Strategic bomber was damaged by the Ukrainian drone attack yesterday.
It is believed that weaponized Tu-141 drones were used to attack the two airbases in Russia yesterday resulting in a Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS being damaged which will likely be out of service for some time.
Does make people question the famed Russian Integrated Air Defense System that a recon drone from the 80s managed to hit strategic airbases deep inside Russia.

317904753_500970722128749_5855399592467327732_n.jpg
The Tu-141 was not designed to be stealthy, but on the other hand, it probably doesn't have a huge radar cross section due to its relatively small/narrow planform. The higher (and further) it flies, the easier it is to detect on radar. Could be they were just flown at very low level, effectively flying "under" Russian ground based search and targeting radars used by their SAMs. Tough to find targets "down in the weeds" without an AWACS type aircraft looking from above, even then they can get lost in the ground clutter.

As a missile, the Tu-141 would have some type of improvised warhead. It's possible the Ukrainians could have also developed homegrown electronic warfare (black box) technology to mount on/within the Tu-141 to jam or spoof Russian radars. I doubt the West would have provided such technology for fear the Russians could recover and analyze the equipment.
 
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captancourgette

Active Member
"It would be visible on radars: the question arises of how this drone could fly from Ukraine through Russian territory and not be visible to S-400 units and hit strategic bombers at a military site," said Oleksandr Musiyenko, another Kyiv analyst.
I'm not a fan of memes but this one has never been more appropriate

How on earth can it fly near to moscow without problem?
I'm guessing a lot of the air defence spedning instead went into dachas & yachts

Im reminding of that time that german teenager flew a plane to moscow in the 80s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathias_Rust
Article:

It’s no longer only about “denazification,” “demilitarization” or the often-heard rants about saving Russia from the evil, soulless West. Now the most influential voices in the country are pointing to the likelihood of a war-crimes tribunal and warning that — in the event of Russia’s defeat — it’s not just President Vladimir Putin and his top lieutenants who would be charged; even ordinary Russians will be judged.

Didn't see that coming, not exactly a morale builder for the home crowd. Would the host of Russia's "most popular political talk show" have broached this topic on air with the head of the RT channel without Kremlin approval? I have my doubts.
Mate its gone beyond denazification now its desatanization :D
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Mate its gone beyond denazification now its desatanization :D
"hundreds of sects are now operating in Ukraine"

compare:

Article:
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 there has been a revival and spread of Siberian shamanism (often mixed with Orthodox elements), and the emergence of Hinduism and new religious movements throughout Russia. There has been an "exponential increase in new religious groups and alternative spiritualities", Eastern religions and Neopaganism, even among self-defined "Christians"—a term which has become a loose descriptor for a variety of eclectic views and practices. Russia has been defined by the scholar Eliot Borenstein as the "Southern California of Europe" because of such a blossoming of new religious movements, and the latter are perceived by the Russian Orthodox Church as competitors in a "war for souls". However, the multiplicity of religions in Russia has been a traditional component of Russian identities for hundreds of years, contributing to a long-established ethno-cultural pluralism.
 

FatPhil

Senior Member.
Article:
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 there has been a revival and spread of Siberian shamanism (often mixed with Orthodox elements), and the emergence of Hinduism and new religious movements throughout Russia. There has been an "exponential increase in new religious groups and alternative spiritualities", Eastern religions and Neopaganism, even among self-defined "Christians"—a term which has become a loose descriptor for a variety of eclectic views and practices.
Here's some background into the flip-side of that - the attempts to stamp out religions a century ago:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq8VA_OoKqQ

I'm no fan of the "reacts" format, I'd rather a considered response, thank you, but at least the Russian sources, the posters, are quite interesting. Next time I go to the old tat market looking for locally-made soviet-era glasses, I shall look through the soviet-era posters too, and see if I can find any, they would fit in well with the other political eclectica we've gathered over the decades. (There's an white-supremacist nationalist party and ultra-christian anti-vax rally poster in my loo right now, which has briefly shocked almost everyone who's visited. Fortunately none of them have been dumb enough to ask any kind of "I never knew you ..." questions, they've worked it out themselves. That's a little bit of history right there - and a primary source; of course I was going to take it.)
 

Duke

Active Member
Article:

Fire engulfed one of the largest shopping malls near Moscow early on Friday, emergency services said, leading to the collapse of part of the structure, which complicated firefighters' efforts to douse the flames.
Content from External Source
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fire-rages-through-shopping-mall-moscow-suburbs-2022-12-09/
And a video of the fire:
Source: https://youtu.be/WCzp0KL_AxM


No indication this was the result of an Ukrainian attack, still the fact the Ukrainians have not acknowledged newsworthy attacks on the Russians works in their favor here. They wouldn't have to have done this, the notion they did in the minds of Muscovites could be enough to continue to raise concerns and dissatisfaction in the way the war is going.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
the notion they did in the minds of Muscovites could be enough to continue to raise concerns and dissatisfaction in the way the war is going.
do Muscovites think they did it? your quote doesnt say anything like that.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
No indication this was the result of an Ukrainian attack
Article:
A massive fire at one of Russia’s largest shopping malls has killed one person and burned down a formerly German-owned home improvement store in northwest Moscow, emergency officials and state media reported early Friday.

The fire, which broke out before dawn, engulfed 18,000 square meters of the MEGA Khimki mall at its peak. It was eventually contained at 7,000 square meters two hours later.

TASS news agency reporters on the ground said OBI was “almost completely destroyed,” with only load-bearing walls remaining upright. They noted that the fire had not spread to the rest of the shopping center.

OBI announced its exit from Russia this spring over the invasion of Ukraine.


One person was killed, state-run news agencies reported, citing emergency officials. Moscow region prosecutors later identified the victim as a MEGA Khimki employee, while other news outlets said he was likely a security guard.

Investigators have opened a criminal case into safety violations in connection with the fire.
Article:
authorities later said the blaze appeared to have been sparked by welding that apparently violated safety regulations, with a probe launched.


Nonetheless, conspiracy theories thrive.
SmartSelect_20221209-180702_Samsung Internet.jpg
SmartSelect_20221209-181444_Samsung Internet.jpg
SmartSelect_20221209-181539_Samsung Internet.jpg

Back in June, there was a full-blown hoax:
Article:
The footage of people fleeing in the Facebook video wasn’t from Moscow and didn’t even occur this year. It's CCTV footage from a 2018 fire that engulfed a mall in the Russian city of Kemerovo, more than 2,200 miles away from Moscow.

Which just goes to show that malls sometimes burn even when there is no war on, and hardware stores (with all that paint thinner etc.) are especially flammable.
 

Duke

Active Member
Article:
A massive fire at one of Russia’s largest shopping malls has killed one person and burned down a formerly German-owned home improvement store in northwest Moscow, emergency officials and state media reported early Friday.

The fire, which broke out before dawn, engulfed 18,000 square meters of the MEGA Khimki mall at its peak. It was eventually contained at 7,000 square meters two hours later.

TASS news agency reporters on the ground said OBI was “almost completely destroyed,” with only load-bearing walls remaining upright. They noted that the fire had not spread to the rest of the shopping center.

OBI announced its exit from Russia this spring over the invasion of Ukraine.


One person was killed, state-run news agencies reported, citing emergency officials. Moscow region prosecutors later identified the victim as a MEGA Khimki employee, while other news outlets said he was likely a security guard.

Investigators have opened a criminal case into safety violations in connection with the fire.
Article:
authorities later said the blaze appeared to have been sparked by welding that apparently violated safety regulations, with a probe launched.


Nonetheless, conspiracy theories thrive.
SmartSelect_20221209-180702_Samsung Internet.jpg
SmartSelect_20221209-181444_Samsung Internet.jpg
SmartSelect_20221209-181539_Samsung Internet.jpg

Back in June, there was a full-blown hoax:
Article:
The footage of people fleeing in the Facebook video wasn’t from Moscow and didn’t even occur this year. It's CCTV footage from a 2018 fire that engulfed a mall in the Russian city of Kemerovo, more than 2,200 miles away from Moscow.

Which just goes to show that malls sometimes burn even when there is no war on, and hardware stores (with all that paint thinner etc.) are especially flammable.
Article:
Arson is being investigated as a possible cause of the fire, but an electrical fault is thought to be a more likely trigger.
Content from External Source
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63914682

Arson? Unsafe welding? Electrical fault? It's doubtful anyone really knows what started the fire so soon after the fact. As you pointed out, there are/will be those who will are looking for conspiratorial causes regardless of the eventual official explanation. One of those is bound to be action on the part of the Ukrainians. My point was any such notion, particularly within Russia, is advantageous to the Ukrainians.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
My point was any such notion, particularly within Russia, is advantageous to the Ukrainians.
i would think attacking civilians would piss the Russians off. so i dont really see it as advantageous. Terrorism tends to get people's backs up, not make them cower.
 

Duke

Active Member
Düsseldorf airport burned on 11. April 1996 for that reason, 17 dead, 88 injured
Sure, fires start for any number of reasons. Growing up I had a classmate whose family garage burned because his little brother wanted to see if he could really start fires with a magnifying glass on a sunny day.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
A New York Times (NYT) investigation of Russian military documents supports ISW’s longstanding assessments about how flawed Russian planning assumptions and campaign design decisions plagued Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from its onset. ISW has long assessed that faulty Russian planning assumptions, campaign design decisions, and Russian violations of Russia’s own military doctrine undermined Russian operations. The NYT acquired and published logbooks, timetables, orders, and other documents of elements of the 76th Airborne Division and 1st Guards Tank Army related to the early days of the war on December 16.[11] The documents demonstrate that Russian military planners expected Russian units to be able to capture significant Ukrainian territory with little to no Ukrainian military opposition. The documents indicate that elements of the 76th Airborne Division and Eastern Military District were ordered to depart Belarus and reach Kyiv within 18 hours against little resistance; Russian planners placed OMON riot police and SOBR Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) special police elements (essentially a Russian SWAT equivalent) within the first column of a maneuver element of the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Airborne Division.[12] Riot police are not suitable lead elements for a large maneuver force in a conventional force-on-force war because they are not trained to conduct combined arms or mechanized warfare. The decision to place riot police in the lead column is a violation of Russian (or any normal) doctrine and indicates that Russian planners did not expect significant organized Ukrainian resistance. A separate set of orders indicates that Russian planners expected unsupported elements of the Russian 26th Tank Regiment (of the 47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army) to conduct a mostly uninhibited, 24-hour dash from Ukraine’s border with Russia to a point across the Dnipro River, about 400 kilometers away.[13] Ukrainian forces destroyed elements of the 26th Tank Regiment in Kharkiv Oblast, hundreds of kilometers short of its intended destination on March 17.[14]

The NYT investigation also supports ISW’s assessments that Russian strategic commanders have been micromanaging operational commanders' decisions on tactical matters and that Russian morale is very low. The investigation supported existing reporting that Russian soldiers in Belarus did not know they were going to attack Ukraine until February 23—the day before the invasion—and that some soldiers did not know about the invasion until one hour before the invasion began.[15] A retired Russian general told the NYT that the lack of a unified Russian theater command meant there was “no unified planning of actions and command [and control].”[16] A Ukrainian pilot told the NYT he was amazed that Russian forces did not conduct a proper air and missile campaign at the beginning of the war to target Ukrainian airfields—as Russian doctrine prescribes. The NYT reported a Russian tank commander deliberately destroyed a Rosgvardia checkpoint in Zaporizhia Oblast over an argument and that many Russian soldiers sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid combat.[17] The NYT's findings support ISW’s assessments and body of research on why the Russian military has been experiencing significant failures since the beginning of the invasion.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
"Our goal is not to spin this flywheel of a military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war," Putin said during a press conference Thursday. "This is what we are striving for."

Nikita Yuferev, a lawmaker in Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg, said that this comment is not consistent with a law Putin signed that effectively criminalized referring to Russia's assault on Ukraine as a "war" or "invasion." The law made it illegal to spread "false information" about the Russian military, punishable by up to 15 years in prison, which essentially made criticism of the war a criminal offense.

"Vladimir Putin called the war a war, but there was no decree to end the special military operation and no war was declared," Yuferev said on social media, per the Moscow Times, adding, "I sent an appeal to the authorities so Putin can see justice for spreading 'fake news' about the army."

So I guess Putin has now debunked the claim that there is no war in Ukraine?
 

FatPhil

Senior Member.
Sure, fires start for any number of reasons. Growing up I had a classmate whose family garage burned because his little brother wanted to see if he could really start fires with a magnifying glass on a sunny day.
The roof of our building, just last month. No freaking idea why. Possibly something from the neighbour's building: http://theanna.org/tmp/Fire2.jpg
(deliberately not embedding the image, there's no point in forcing everyone to see our burnt roof. If you're ghoulishly interested, you'll follow the link, if you're not, you won't.)
 
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