NYT Article on "Drone Fever"

[Calter]

There's an interesting NY article about the "drone fever" as they called it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/24/nyregion/new-jersey-new-york-drones.html (May require free login)

The article itself is a decent read, and it goes over the timeline of the whole thing, but it also seems to elaborate somewhat on how the "first" sighting at Picatinny went off, which I always hear as "there was a report on a military base" without really knowing what the report (or the sighting) entailed.

It was a dry and cool Wednesday evening outside the Army's Picatinny Arsenal in New Jersey, a longtime military installation that once made the bombs and shells that led to victory in World War II. A contractor there knocked off work and decided to wait out rush hour traffic. He picked up some takeout from Wawa, parked outside a nearby wildlife preserve and settled in to watch an episode of Joe Rogan's podcast on his phone. Then he saw a flash in the side mirror.

A light rising straight up from the tree line and toward the arsenal. He started recording. Could it have been a plane?

Or was it a drone?

And so began what seems to be the origin story of the ongoing drone saga. The contractor called in his sighting to his superiors on Nov. 13,
...

At Picatinny Arsenal, where it all began weeks ago, the contractor who reported what he saw in his car's mirror has otherwise stayed quiet about the incident, telling just a few colleagues and an old college classmate. He is speaking out now on the condition that his name be withheld because he is not authorized to address the matter. As he's watched the drone frenzy spread across the country, he said he can't help but worry he's to blame.

"I feel," he said, "like I've caused mass hysteria."

(bolden by me)

I feel like when people mention a report/sighting on a military base, there's some sort of implication that it was serious business. They must have had some soldiers on patrol with binoculars and they spotted something or maybe the drone got really close and it was clearly visible, surely it can't be something mundane since it comes from a military base with trained soldiers.

But in this case (and I wouldn't be surprised if it applies to many others), it can just be a contractor seeing a weird light in the sky while sitting in his car and listening to a podcast.

I wonder if a candidate for the contractor's sighting can be deduced based on the information we have (around rush hour, outside a nearby wildlife preserve and heading towards the arsenal)

 

[RTM]

A light rising straight up from the tree line and toward the arsenal.

Sorry if it's covered in the article, I couldn't access it. But the bit about the light rising above the tree line, as has been pointed out before could this be a case of the object being further away but appearing to be close to the base?

 

[Mick West]

You can often read NYT articles with a free account, you just need to log in. Sometimes a link won't work, sometimes it will next time you visit. Annoying, but it's their site.

Reminder: you can quote relevant excerpts of articles under fair use, but not large chunks, and certainly not entire articles.

The second article is also interesting. I talked to one of the reporters when they were researching it, but they also got a bunch of other experts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/19/video/new-jersey-drones-planes-videos.html

Article:

To better understand what some New Jersey residents have likely been seeing — as well as how perceptions of objects in the night sky can be distorted — The New York Times mapped local airports, tracked air traffic patterns and, along with aviation experts, analyzed hundreds of videos of aircraft purportedly filmed in or near Morris County in November and December.

The vast majority of the videos appeared to show planes or helicopters, moving across a part of the state that brims with airports. None of the videos analyzed by The Times conclusively showed drones, though in some cases that remains a plausible explanation.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/19/video/new-jersey-drones-planes-videos.html

They go on to describe common landing light configurations and normal air traffic patterns and frequency

 

[Mick West]

Sorry if it's covered in the article, I couldn't access it. But the bit about the light rising above the tree line, as has been pointed out before could this be a case of the object being further away but appearing to be close to the base?

From the second article:

Article:

One key factor fueling the confusion, drone and aviation experts said, is that it's exceedingly difficult for the human eye to gauge the distance, size, and movement of flying objects at night.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/19/video/new-jersey-drones-planes-videos.html

Article:

However, flight tracking does not capture every aircraft and the challenges judging distance at night make it easy to misinterpret the data.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/19/video/new-jersey-drones-planes-videos.html

Article:

Greg Pratt, a former air traffic controller and surveillance pilot for the F.B.I., who now teaches law enforcement officers how to identify and respond to drones, said that at night "your depth perception is totally unreliable," even for those with training in identifying drones.

For that reason, it can also be challenging to gauge a flying object's size. Something very big that is very far away, like a plane, can easily be mistaken for something smaller flying at close range, like a drone.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/19/video/new-jersey-drones-planes-videos.html

 

[dr.penguin]

This drone hysteria started when a few people in New Jersey started seeing planes and thought they were mysterious; the word spread in Morris County, and like wildfire, other counties caught on.

 

[TEEJ]

Calter,
Thanks for posting that article and the sighting from the contractor at Picatinny. It would be interesting if the contractor could confirm a specific time/direction.

I would assume that the Wawa the contractor is referring to is the one next to the Rockaway Wildlife Preserve? There are several likely park up viewing areas at the wildlife preserve.

Google map link for Picatinny Arsenal/Wildlife Preserve area.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/KZuK53WszCdbwFMEA

ADSBExchange playback for 13th November 2024. As you can see from early evening onwards there are multiple aircraft passing over Picatinny Arsenal and many at low altitudes from just above 2,000 feet. It is very likely that the contractor simply misinterpreted one of these aircraft passing over Picatinny Arsenal at low level. Too many aircraft to possibly narrow down specifics but if you speed up the playback you will see the regular low heights and approaches that could be misinterpreted.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?replay=2024-11-13-21:30&lat=40.946&lon=-74.558&zoom=12.8

 

[JWrightBrain]

This drone hysteria started when a few people in New Jersey started seeing planes and thought they were mysterious; the word spread in Morris County, and like wildfire, other counties caught on.

Yeah. I mean the early news reports I saw on TV just were centered around concerned women fretting that the drones were looking in their windows. It had nothing to do with aliens, missing nukes or Iran.