Need Debunking: ONS data shows Covid Vaccinated Teens are 3 times more likely to die than Unvaccinated Teens.

ElementalBrain

New Member
A website claims vaccinated teens aged 15-19 fare worse than unvaccinated teens. The implication, or sometimes the main claim, is that the vaccine is killing them. This seems to be some obscure website, but now its spreading like wildfire and some doctors and scientists are sharing the graphs and the data.

This seems to be the main source of the information. They took official data from England, from this link, deaths occuring between 1 january and 31 october 2021 edition of this dataset, table 9 which among many other things says:

Vaccination statusAge groupPerson-yearsDeaths involving COVID-19Non-COVID-19 deathsAll deaths

Received only the first dose, at least 21 days ago15-19
174.667​
0​
32​
32​

Received the second dose, at least 21 days ago15-19
127.842​
1​
41​
42​

Unvaccinated15-19
1.587.072​
18​
142​
160​

They took the numbers for teens and calculated the "mortality rate per 100,000 person years for 15-19 year-old teens in England by vaccination status." Double vaccinated 15-19 year olds had mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of 32.85, unvaccinated 15-19 year olds had 10.08, and those that took a single dose had 18.32.

One obvious issue to me is that these are just raw numbers and as far as I know with teens they are prioritizing sick teens. But they do follow this claim by with "This may explain why deaths among teenage boys aged 15-19 increased by 53% in 2021 following the introduction of the Covid-19 injection to this age-group."

Does what they do with the numbers even make sense? Is there any research on comparable statistics and the 53% increase in teen deaths?
 

Ann K

Active Member
Does what they do with the numbers even make sense? Is there any research on comparable statistics and the 53% increase in teen deaths?
I cannot speak to the practice in the UK, but in the USA the vaccine was not generally available to teens in the early part of the year EXCEPT those teens with other medical conditions that might make them more vulnerable. That may account for skewed statistics.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
"This may explain why deaths among teenage boys aged 15-19 increased by 53% in 2021 following the introduction of the Covid-19 injection to this age-group."
Euromomo doesn't provide mortality data for that age group, only for 0-14, but it does look like England is special.

Europe-wide, weekly deaths, 2021 doesn't look unusual compared to past years
SmartSelect_20220203-042114_Samsung Internet.jpg
UK, England is special
SmartSelect_20220203-042427_Samsung Internet.jpg
SmartSelect_20220203-042444_Samsung Internet.jpg
If the recent spike in England was caused by vaccines, we ought to see it in the other British nations, too, but we don't.

What you can also see here is that youth mortality in England in the second half of 2020 was low (presumably because of lockdowns etc), so any comparisons that show only 2021 vs 2020 are likely to be skewed.

Source: https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
 
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deirdre

Senior Member.
I cannot speak to the practice in the UK, but in the USA the vaccine was not generally available to teens in the early part of the year EXCEPT those teens with other medical conditions that might make them more vulnerable. That may account for skewed statistics.

Article:
August 4, 2021
Currently in the U.K., only adolescents 12 to 17 years old with pre-existing conditions or those who live with someone with a pre-existing condition may receive the coronavirus vaccine. They are eligible to receive the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech.
....
The BBC reports that 223,755 people under 18 years old have received their first dose of the vaccine across England.

so very rough estimate of 12-17 years would be about 3 million+ population.

1643861711427.png




There also seems to have been an issue with second doses for teens... sounds like only at risk kids were given second doses in that time frame of the OP study.
Article:
October 22, 2021
The government’s vaccines watchdog is understood to have approved the idea of second Covid vaccinations for teenagers aged 16 and 17, putting in place another element of plans to boost protection from the virus into the winter.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) decided in favour of first jabs for the age group in early August, saying at the time it was likely that second shots would begin 12 weeks after the first dose.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
and a fact check of similar FB claims (different time periods week 23-37 which is June 5th-September 17th)
Article:
Not all teenagers could get a vaccine in this period
As regards to the timing, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), advised that over-16s with underlying health conditions were included in the initial vaccine roll-out from late 2020.

Children aged 12 to 15 at severe risk from Covid-19 were advised to receive a vaccine on 15 July, alongside those aged 12 to 17 who live with an immunocompromised person. A broader roll out came later.

The JCVI advised that all 16 and 17-year-olds should receive a first dose of vaccine on 4 August 2021, and the vaccine was recommended for use by all 12 to 15-year-olds by the chief medical officers on 13 September 2021.


.....

However, the ONS has now produced the figures for this age group for a particular (and slightly different period) between weeks 19 and 38, rather than weeks 23 and 37 as outlined in the Daily Sceptic piece.

During this period, the average number of deaths of 15 to 19-year-olds registered between 2015 and 2019 was 283. By comparison, 313 deaths were registered over the same period in 2021, a 10.6% increase.

So deaths registered in 2021 are still higher compared to an average year, but the gap is far smaller than between 2021 and 2020.
 

DaftVaguer

New Member
1644146116811.png
Looking at the spreadsheet, there are a couple of lines that are not shown for 15-19. Within 21 days of the first vaccine the death rate is on 6 per 100,000 person years. Within 21 days of the second vaccine the rate is zero.
 

DaftVaguer

New Member
1644152457661.png

It looks like the original source is https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/02/01/ons-data-covid-vaccinated-teens-more-likely-to-die/

They claim that more males aged 15 to 19 died in England and Wales between week 18-52 2021 compared to week 18-52 2020, which is correct according to the links provided to government data. However, when we look at the weekly averages we find that the odd one out is 2020 18-52. Rates in the other three quarters remain much the same. Taking weeks prior to major lockdowns in 2020 (1-12) the average is 11.1. What the data suggests is that lockdowns and other restrictions had reduced the rate of death for males in this age group in 2020.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
What the data suggests is that lockdowns and other restrictions had reduced the rate of death for males in this age group in 2020.
Thank you for confirming my point.

As a rough estimate, a week of 3 million people aged 15-19 is ~60,000 person-years, so an average of 11 deaths per week amounts to 1 death per 5000 person-years approximately.
1644146116811.png
The mortality of the unvaccinated is about half of that (1 death per 10,000), while the mortality of the vaccinated roughly matches ((174667+127842+43091)/74=4670); that's not considering the gender gap (do we have data on teen vaccinations by gender?).

I'd explain the difference via behaviour: the unvaccinated can't go out for an evening at the pub because of restrictions, not get into associated fights or drive drunk etc. (and also less likely to be on the road with their family), so they're living more safely. A deeper analysis would look into the "cause of death" statistics.
 
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DaftVaguer

New Member
I'd explain the difference via behaviour: the unvaccinated can't go out for an evening at the pub because of restrictions, not get into associated fights or drive drunk etc. (and also less likely to be on the road with their family), so they're living more safely. A deeper analysis would look into the "cause of death" statistics.
Totaling all vaccinated status there are 434,306 person years with 78 deaths = 18 per 100,000 person years.
While for unvaccinated it is 1,587,072 with 142 deaths = 10 per 100,000 person years.

Mendel is effectively claiming that 18 - 10 = 8 per 100,000 (or about half of unvaccinated deaths) are missing due to unvaccinated staying out of trouble.

Unvaccinated make up just over 75% of the person years. This creates a problem: If about half the deaths are missing for three quarters of the population, then the deaths in 2021 should be down by about 37.5% compared to previous years.

The figures indicate we were only short in the last part of 2020 - not in 2021.

This article indicates numbers were marginally higher overall in 2021 compared to the five year average:

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-818000433358
Using a recent five-year average for comparison, U.K. deaths among males aged 15 to 19 increased in 2021 by a much smaller amount, about 17%, while deaths among females aged 15 to 19 decreased by 11%.
Content from External Source
 
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JMartJr

Senior Member
Mendel is effectively claiming that 18 - 10 = 8 per 100,000 (or about half of unvaccinated deaths) are missing due to unvaccinated staying out of trouble.

Unvaccinated make up just over 75% of the person years. This creates a problem: If about half the deaths are missing for three quarters of the population, then the deaths in 2021 should be down by about 37.5% compared to previous years.

The way to understand that, whatever the cause, would be to do as Mendel suggested and look deeper into data showing CAUSE of death. If that shows deaths occuring due to traffic accidents or drinking/drugs or other indications of folks cutting loose and making up for lost party time when getting out from under restrictions put in place during the pandemic, for example, then a vaccine side effect is not demonstrated by the data. But you'd need to look at that data, at that level of detail, to find out.

I'd also look at deaths in that age group (or whatever group interests you) annually from well back before the pandemic, to get a sense of how much the rate varies from year to year: if there is an increase, is it in line with normal and expected fluctuations in the statistics for the group, or does it stand out as something unusual.
 

DaftVaguer

New Member
I cannot speak to the practice in the UK, but in the USA the vaccine was not generally available to teens in the early part of the year EXCEPT those teens with other medical conditions that might make them more vulnerable. That may account for skewed statistics.
Article:
August 4, 2021
Currently in the U.K., only adolescents 12 to 17 years old with pre-existing conditions or those who live with someone with a pre-existing condition may receive the coronavirus vaccine. They are eligible to receive the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech.
....
The BBC reports that 223,755 people under 18 years old have received their first dose of the vaccine across England.

so very rough estimate of 12-17 years would be about 3 million+ population.

There also seems to have been an issue with second doses for teens... sounds like only at risk kids were given second doses in that time frame of the OP study.
Article:
October 22, 2021
The government’s vaccines watchdog is understood to have approved the idea of second Covid vaccinations for teenagers aged 16 and 17, putting in place another element of plans to boost protection from the virus into the winter.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) decided in favour of first jabs for the age group in early August, saying at the time it was likely that second shots would begin 12 weeks after the first dose.
According to Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_the_United_Kingdom for the vaccine rollout
Start Date - Group:
15 Feb 2001 - All underlying risks age 16+
18 June 2001 - 18+
19 July 2001 - Underlying risks - adolescents (now covering age 15)
4 Aug - 16 to 17
13 Sept - 12 to 15 (first Dose) (29 Nov Second Dose)

As the death rate did not go up overall for 15-19, and the vaccinated (in particular those who had the second dose) had a much higher death rate we can take it that the vaccinated must have been skewed to people who would ordinarily have a higher death rate, which it was - cancer patients, transplant recipients, etc, etc (the list on wiki is quite long).

There is room for other things like accidents to play a minor role. However, the death rate had bounce back to normal in early 2001 prior to second doses being given.
 
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