Need Debunking: "Indian Women in UK Have 40% Higher COVID Rates Than in India"?

[Juanne Pili]

Hello everyone,

Houston, We have a problem. I was notified of an old interview, probably from 2020, where a well-known Italian conspiracy theorist lists many of the now well-known hoaxes about megadoses of vitamin C and D, which would work against Covid-19.

The interview continues to circulate on Facebook. Source: https://www.facebook.com/patrizia.rotolo.39/videos/1080962023462038

I know that it is not just an Italian problem, these are old narratives that continue to circulate on social networks, even on American pages. I am writing to you because at a certain point in the interview a study is cited on the alleged antiviral efficacy of vitamin D, conducted on Indian women. I am reporting the part of the interview in which the study is cited, transcribed with TurboScribe and translated into English with the help of Google Translate:

Vitamin D without sun does not work, it needs sun. There is a very interesting work done on Indians who live in England. Indian women who live in India are very dressed, so they have little skin exposed to the sun, but in India there is a lot of sun and they don't get sick. When they go to England they are dressed exactly like in India, that is, they have little skin exposed to the sun, but in England they get sick, because that little sun is not enough to metabolize their vitamin D. While in India it is enough because there is more sun. So it is interesting to see how the sun is absolutely fundamental on the same race, on the same habits, but at different latitudes, therefore at different sun exposures.

I am writing to you because this thing is driving me crazy. I just can't find any references. Maybe I am tired in this period! The only reference I found is on a Facebook page from May 2020: https://www.facebook.com/legacy/notes/2420148804896339/

Here a supporter of the same guru, citing his "deeds", reports the following statement (I have to adapt it myself because it is written in terrible Italian):

To metabolize Vitamin D you need the sun. It is essential for the immune system (they have shown that Indian women in the UK get sick 40% more than those in India, precisely because of the climate).

Maybe among you there is someone who has already coincidentally found himself having to do fact-checking on the same study or is more skilled than me in finding the source. Could you help me please?

Yes, I know, the burden of proof lies with the person making the statement. But I am curious to read that study (if it really exists). That the narratives on the antiviral properties of megadoses of vitamins are hoaxes is generally already confirmed.

 

[Mendel]

Article:

Vitamin D deficiency in British South Asians
Barbara J Boucher

High vitamin D deficiency rates, with rickets and osteomalacia, have been common in South Asians (SAs) arriving in Britain since the 1950s with preventable infant deaths from hypocalcaemic status-epilepticus and cardiomyopathy. Vitamin D deficiency increases common SA disorders (type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease), recent trials and non-linear Mendelian randomisation studies having shown deficiency to be causal for both disorders. Ethnic minority, obesity, diabetes and social deprivation are recognised COVID-19 risk factors, but vitamin D deficiency is not, despite convincing mechanistic evidence of it. Adjusting analyses for obesity/ethnicity abolishes vitamin D deficiency in COVID-19 risk prediction,

Source: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9641767/

Article:

Everyone in the UK is advised to take a daily supplement containing 10 micrograms (400 international units) of vitamin D during the autumn and winter months (October to early March), when we cannot make vitamin D from sunlight.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vitamin-d-deficiency-migrant-health-guide

The comparative vitamin D deficiency compared to India is a fact, but it's not a factor that causes Covid.

Edit: added missing source link

 

[Juanne Pili]

Article:

Vitamin D deficiency in British South Asians
Barbara J Boucher

High vitamin D deficiency rates, with rickets and osteomalacia, have been common in South Asians (SAs) arriving in Britain since the 1950s with preventable infant deaths from hypocalcaemic status-epilepticus and cardiomyopathy. Vitamin D deficiency increases common SA disorders (type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease), recent trials and non-linear Mendelian randomisation studies having shown deficiency to be causal for both disorders. Ethnic minority, obesity, diabetes and social deprivation are recognised COVID-19 risk factors, but vitamin D deficiency is not, despite convincing mechanistic evidence of it. Adjusting analyses for obesity/ethnicity abolishes vitamin D deficiency in COVID-19 risk prediction,

Source: Vitamin D deficiency in British South Asians

Article:

Everyone in the UK is advised to take a daily supplement containing 10 micrograms (400 international units) of vitamin D during the autumn and winter months (October to early March), when we cannot make vitamin D from sunlight.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vitamin-d-deficiency-migrant-health-guide

The comparative vitamin D deficiency compared to India is a fact, but it's not a factor that causes Covid.

Thanks! Then I'm starting to think that nothing is found because 1) they misunderstood a study that talks about what you also highlighted; 2) it was a predatory publication that got lost.

 

[Mendel]

Thanks! Then I'm starting to think that nothing is found because 1) they misunderstood a study that talks about what you also highlighted; 2) it was a predatory publication that got lost in thin air.

The abstract I quoted makes me think such a study exists. But do you know the saying, "correlation is not causation"?

If you compare women in India, who may be slender and have enough vitamin D, with Indian women in Britain, who may be more obese on average and lack vitamin D, then you're probably going to find the British women suffer more from Covid. Boucher's point is, however, that this is due to the obesity and the ethnicity, i.e. these two risk factors by themselves account for the increased Covid incidence. The vitamin D deficiency is just something that happens on top of it, but doesn't contribute.

 

[deirdre]

where a well-known Italian conspiracy theorist lists many of the now well-known hoaxes about megadoses of vitamin C and D, which would work against Covid-19.

The interview continues to circulate on Facebook. Source: https://www.facebook.com/patrizia.rotolo.39/videos/1080962023462038

what is the full name of this doctor. FB videos dont translate for me like Youtube video often do. and when i google "Dr. Montanari" i am getting way too many American hits.

Does he have a Youtube channel? Bunk only in Italian are going to be very hard for Metabunkers to help you with..the more information you can find and provide to help us search the better.

 

[Juanne Pili]

what is the full name of this doctor. FB videos dont translate for me like Youtube video often do. and when i google "Dr. Montanari" i am getting way too many American hits.

Does he have a Youtube channel? Bunk only in Italian are going to be very hard for Metabunkers to help you with..the more information you can find and provide to help us search the better.

Stefano Montanari. Is common know in Italy for his "statements" about alleged contamination in vaccines and other substances.

No, it is irrelevant to know his name in this case. The problem here is that He cites an alleged study, without giving any other references. Everything I found on that "study" I have reported to you in English. The other statements He makes in the interview are the usual hoaxes that you already know about vitamins C and D, because He often borrows from American authors.

 

[deirdre]

August 2020

Article:

India's covid-19 count could be missing many women

...
The question then becomes - are we seeing fewer women in the official case counts because fewer women are being tested, or because fewer women develop serious enough symptoms to warrant testing? The evidence thus far suggests that both might be true.

In May, the Indian Council for Medical Research published its analysis of over one million diagnostic tests for covid-19 conducted between January 22 and April 30. They found that while men made up the majority of positive cases, women were slightly more likely to test positive than they were to be tested.

Source: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-covid-19-count-could-be-missing-many-women-11598670961443.html

 

[deirdre]

^^i should note the above does not suggest i dont think good vitamin D plays a role. Recent studies pretty much all say good D levels help with severity and outcomes. While Mega dosing is dangerous and a bit ridiculous, if good d levels help keep severity down its quite possible less women in India would get tested as they wouldn't be as sick.

I've been supplementing 2,000 iu a day -in winter/rain-as Fauchi said he was taking 6,000 a day.<this was back in beginning of pandemic, i dont know if he still does that. maybe. kinda sounded like it was just something he's always done. I read upper safe limit is 4,000 so people should check with the doctor before taking stuff!!

from Mendels link above

Article:

COVID-19 pandemic advice for UK adults in 'lockdown' was '400 IU vitamin D/day', inadequate for correcting the deficiency seen winter/summer at 17.5%/5.9% in White, 38.5%/30% in Black and 57.2%/50.8% in SA people in representative UK Biobank subjects when recruited ~14 years ago and remaining similar in 2018. Vitamin D inadequacy worsens many non-skeletal health risks.

Source: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9641767/

and NIH 2022

Article:

Results: The number of primary studies included in the systematic reviews ranged from 3 to 13. Meta-analysis of seven systematic reviews showed strong evidence that vitamin D supplementation reduces the risk of mortality (Odds ratio: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.346-0.664; P < 0.001) in COVID patients. It was also observed that supplementation reduces the need for intensive care (Odds ratio: 0.35; 95%CI: 0.28-0.44; P < 0.001) and mechanical ventilation (Odds ratio: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.411-0.708; P < 0.001) requirement. The findings were robust and reliable as level of heterogeneity was considerably low. However the included studies were of varied quality. Qualitative analysis showed that supplements (oral and IV) are well tolerated, safe and effective in COVID patients.

Conclusion: The findings of this study show that vitamin D supplementation is effective in reducing the COVID-19 severity. Hence, vitamin D should be recommended as an adjuvant therapy for COVID-19.However, more robust and larger trials are required to substantiate it further.

Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35166850/

 

[Juanne Pili]

Yes, the issue here is that these alternative medicine 'gurus' go overboard, suggesting that vitamin D can be used in a way comparable to an antiviral or even as a substitute for vaccines. It's great to keep your car's tank full, but if you want to avoid accidents, you also need to learn how to drive and check your brakes.

 

[deirdre]

Yes, the issue here is that these alternative medicine 'gurus' go overboard, suggesting that vitamin D can be used in a way comparable to an antiviral or even as a substitute for vaccines. It's great to keep your car's tank full, but if you want to avoid accidents, you also need to learn how to drive and check your brakes.

as an extremely healthy person in my 20s and 30s (lots of sun, exercise, good food etc) who worked with children... trust me, you are gonna catch it if there's no vaccine. It's more an issue of staying normal healthy to help fight it off.

 

[Mendel]

and NIH 2022

Article:

Results: The number of primary studies included in the systematic reviews ranged from 3 to 13. Meta-analysis of seven systematic reviews showed strong evidence that vitamin D supplementation reduces the risk of mortality (Odds ratio: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.346-0.664; P < 0.001) in COVID patients. It was also observed that supplementation reduces the need for intensive care (Odds ratio: 0.35; 95%CI: 0.28-0.44; P < 0.001) and mechanical ventilation (Odds ratio: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.411-0.708; P < 0.001) requirement. The findings were robust and reliable as level of heterogeneity was considerably low. However the included studies were of varied quality. Qualitative analysis showed that supplements (oral and IV) are well tolerated, safe and effective in COVID patients.

Conclusion: The findings of this study show that vitamin D supplementation is effective in reducing the COVID-19 severity. Hence, vitamin D should be recommended as an adjuvant therapy for COVID-19.However, more robust and larger trials are required to substantiate it further.

Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35166850/

that's not a good study

from a comment:

Article:

In addition, a meta-analysis assumes that each included trial provides an unbiased estimate of the effect of an intervention.2,3 However, all the data included in the forest plot were secondary data, which did not meet this assumption and resulted in very high heterogeneity.

Source: https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/article/116/7/609/7087106?login=false

I wouldn't place great confidence in this result.

 

[deirdre]

I wouldn't place great confidence in this result.

the study says the opposite of your quoted comment. But yea thats why i included the full end statement.

either way it's just the first one i grabbed. I'm happy to have you pull a few more recent ones that say the opposite, as Yale and the Mayo clinic etc are all publishing vit D helps covid severity.. so it would be cool to debunk them.

ex:

Article:

The clinical review, conducted by researchers at Assiut University in Egypt and published in Inflammopharmacology, analyzed 58 clinical studies that investigated the therapeutic effects of vitamin D in more than 14 million patients with COVID-19. The authors found that 49 studies (86%) demonstrated that having a higher vitamin D level was associated with less severe COVID-19 symptoms. The researchers concluded that vitamin D likely acts against COVID-19 by protecting the respiratory system and regulating the innate and adaptive immune system.

Source: https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/long-covid-treatment-does-your-vitamin-d-level-play-a-role

 

[deirdre]

@Juanne Pili as far as tracking down a study talking about a 40% difference, was thinking it might not have been a study per se but just "stats". Back then countries were publishing stats about everything..maybe someone just looked at the stats released by India vs the stats released by England for that specific demographic. ??

 

[John J.]

...was thinking it might not have been a study per se but just "stats".

Agreed.
The very widespread use of testing and reporting regimes in the UK might well have detected large numbers of asymptomatic / minor symptom COVID-19 that would otherwise have gone undetected and unreported.
This would apply to people of Indian descent as well as people of local descent.

 

[Mendel]

The problem is that observational studies can be misleading.
Sure, obese people with vitamin D deficiency have worse outcomes with Covid. But we already know that obesity causes vitamin D deficiency.
So is it
A) Obesity causes Vitamin D deficiency; deficiency makes Covid worse
or is it
B) Obesity makes Covid worse, and also causes vitamin D deficiency?

So what we want is not an observational study, we want a controlled trial where they give people vitamin D and see what happens:

Article:

COVID-19 symptoms vary from asymptomatic cases to moderate and severe illness with patients needing hospitalization and intensive care treatment. Vitamin D is associated with severity of viral infections and has an immune-modulatory effect in immune response. Observational studies showed a negative association of low vitamin D levels and COVID-19 severity and mortality outcomes. In this study, we aimed to determine whether daily supplementation of vitamin D during intensive care unit (ICU) stay in COVID-19 patients with severe illness affects clinically relevant outcomes. Patients with COVID-19 disease in need of respiratory support admitted to the ICU were eligible for inclusion. Patients with low vitamin D levels were randomized into one of two groups: the intervention group received daily supplementation of vitamin D and the control group did not receive vitamin D supplementation. In total, 155 patients were randomized: 78 into the intervention group and 77 into the control group. There was no statistically significant difference in number of days spent on respiratory support, although the trial was underpowered for the main outcome. There was no difference in any of the secondary outcomes analyzed between two groups. Our study suggests no benefit in vitamin D supplementation to patients with severe COVID-19 disease admitted to the ICU and in need of respiratory support in any of the analyzed outcomes.

Source: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10005311/

Now you could say, maybe the dosage was wrong, or you need to give it to people earlier. But if we want to have confidence in "eating vitamin D helps against Covid", we need a (large enough) controlled trial that shows exactly this.

Meanwhile, correcting a vitamin D deficiency is beneficial anyway (for other, well-established reasons) even if it does not help against Covid.

 

[deirdre]

we want a controlled trial where they give people vitamin D and see what happens:

there were some RCTs in my Yale link. the results vary. Based on many instances of similar wording and numbers with the Yale Hospital link above i think this is the main paper the article refers to.

Results vary between RCTs but im gonna keep taking my supplements.

Article:

However, the overall number of randomized controlled trials that failed to find a beneficial role for vitamin D was small with a small sample size of the enrolled population and heterogeneous with respect to study design, dosing and intervention strategies. In addition to the conflicting results in the meta-analysis as described with Zhang et al. (2023). Therefore, these studies are considered to have low-grade evidence against the beneficial role of vitamin D in COVID-19.

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10787-023-01383-x