Naive falsification and conspiracy theories

MikeC

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Whilst generally browsing around the subject of falsification I discovered that there is actually a "scientific" term for the tactic that CT's often use for avoiding the obvious - Naïve Falsification -

..... it is always possible to change the universal statement or the existential statement so that falsification does not occur. On hearing that a black swan has been observed in Australia, one might introduce the ad hoc hypothesis, 'all swans are white except those found in Australia'; or one might adopt another, more cynical view about some observers, 'Australian bird watchers are incompetent'.
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Or all debunkers are shills! :)

I found it ironic and a little amusing that the constant shifting of the goalposts that most conspiracies seem to exhibit actually has a scientific term to describe it :)
 
Similar to the "no true Scotsman" fallacy.

This is certainly something I've found with the chemtrail theory, and in a way it's a downside of debunking. Just the use of antibiotics leads to antibiotic resistant bugs, so too can debunking lead to debunking resistant bunk, as it twists and turns to fit the evidence. Eventually devolving into A) There's so much evidence something must be happening, and B) You can't trust the government, so they must be doing something.

A typical example of naive falsification with chemtrails is:

CT: Contrails did not persist before 1995
Me: Here's some photos from 1980
CT: Contrails did not persist before 1995 except for experiments
Me: Here's some from 1944, and accounts from the 1920s
CT: Contrails did not persist before 1995 except for experiments and in the olden days when engines were different
 
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