July 2025 Central Texas floods

[Mick West]

Article:

From July 4 to 5, 2025, a large flooding event took place in the Texas Hill Country and areas downstream, United States, resulting in the deaths of at least 32 people, with hundreds initially reported missing. The floods, caused by the rapid rise of the Guadalupe River after excessive rainfall, have been described as "catastrophic."

Flooding began on July 4 after large amounts of rain fell on Central Texas. Six flash flood emergencies, which included the cities of Kerrville and Mason, were issued the same day. The Guadalupe River surged an estimated 29 feet (8.8 m) in the Hunt area, where over 20 children were declared missing from a summer camp. A total of 25 people were killed on July 4, with search-and-rescue operations still underway. July 5 saw more flash flood emergencies and flood warnings over the Lake Travis area (Colorado River watershed).

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Central_Texas_floods

Because there are many dead, there's conspiracy theories.

Here's the warning:

Article:

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040525Z - 041030Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely across central TX
overnight with very heavy rainfall expected. Hourly rainfall in
excess of 2 to 3 inches seems reasonable given the environment and
localized 6-hr totals over 6 inches will be possible. Some flash
flood impacts could be significant, especially considering
sensitive terrain over portions of the region.
...
The
tropical airmass will be capable of 2 to 3+ inches of rain in an
hour and localized totals over 6 inches in a 6 hour period may
also occur. These areas of heavy rainfall are expected to result
in a few areas of flash flooding through the overnight, some of
which may become locally significant.

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=584&yr=2025

It seems tragically mundane. More rain fell than was expected, and the warning system was inadequate for these novel circumstances

 

[FatPhil]

Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose.

Texas officials appeared to blame the Weather Service for issuing forecasts on Wednesday that underestimated how much rain was coming. But former Weather Service officials said the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm's unusually abrupt escalation.

The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said — the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.
The shortages are among the factors likely to be scrutinized as the death toll climbs from the floods. Separate questions have emerged about the preparedness of local communities, including Kerr County's apparent lack of a local flood warning system. The county, roughly 50 miles northwest of San Antonio, is where many of the deaths occurred.

In an interview, Rob Kelly, the Kerr County judge and its most senior elected official, said the county did not have a warning system because such systems are expensive, and local residents are resistant to new spending.

-- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/...e_code=1.UU8.AMwe.e9OojcASd73d&smid=url-share

 

[Ann K]

In an interview, Rob Kelly, the Kerr County judge and its most senior elected official, said the county did not have a warning system because such systems are expensive, and local residents are resistant to new spending.

And if they install a warning system now and rehire the people to communicate with local officials, it's closing the barn door after the horse is gone.

The Associated Press reports 51 confirmed dead this morning, 27 girls missing from the camp, and the local officials will not even give an estimate of the total number missing, because it's expected that many people have come from elsewhere over the Fourth of July holiday to camp and fish along the river.

https://apnews.com/article/texas-floods-missing-hill-country-5044c169b59921b2b4f65a2568c354c0

 

[MonkeeSage]

Some people on various social media platforms are claiming that Texas cloud seeding programs caused the flash flooding. This is not only inaccurate it is contradicted by the data about cloud seeding operations in Texas.

There is no evidence that the seeding contributes to less rainfall anywhere else. What is more, there is no evidence that seeding causes clouds to grow substantially taller and produce unwanted effects (such as damaging winds, hail, and flash floods). To the contrary, the available evidence from over eight years of research in West Texas suggests cloud seeding, when done timely and accurately, contributes to more gentle, widespread, and longer-lasting rains.

Source: https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/weather/weatherfaq.htm#2

 

[jarlrmai]

It never ceases to amaze me how quickly conspiracy theories jump on tragedy.

 

[Mendel]

And if they install a warning system now and rehire the people to communicate with local officials, it's closing the barn door after the horse is gone.

the problem is that Texas has neither the vegetation nor the infrastructure to retain rainfall

it's definitely not a bad idea to prepare for next flood now. there are still more horses in the barn (and other barns, too).

 

[NorCal Dave]

the problem is that Texas has neither the vegetation nor the infrastructure to retain rainfall

it's definitely not a bad idea to prepare for next flood now. there are still more horses in the barn (and other barns, too).

I was really surprised at the lack of sufficient warning systems, the Hill country is know for being very prone to flash flooding. People get complacent I guess. When the Camp Fire came through here, many of the evacuation protocols that my dad had worked on in the '80s had been forgotten. Post fire, there are evacuation zone signs everywhere and modernized air raid sirens all over town. Even though with a fire, it'll be decades before anything like that can happen again, there's no fuel left.

Flooding just needs rain and there is always going to be plenty of rain along the Gulf coast.

 

[Mendel]

When the Camp Fire came through here, many of the evacuation protocols that my dad had worked on in the '80s had been forgotten. Post fire, there are evacuation zone signs everywhere and modernized air raid sirens all over town.

I live on the German North Sea coast, and we rely on the levees to protect us. While there's an organisation spanning several counties that coordinates efforts and runs building projects etc., much of the responsibility rests on local volunteers who are each responsible for a short section of dike. On one day each year, all of these people walk their section in entirety and report on the condition of the dike. These are also often farmers or builders who would be called upon in an emergency to help shift sand bags with their equipment.

Wildfire safety and flood safety in endangered areas would really profit from a similar system, where local people know the infrastructure in their area and make sure it's intact. It's in their own best interest, after all. You'd have a lightly trained corps of volunteer helpers who'd know how to evacuate their own community in an emergency.

 

[Mick West]

A good post explaining why cloud seeding isn't the cause

Source: https://www.facebook.com/TravisABC13/posts/pfbid0cFTegA2Smh8m55g1ZJe3t8uf68iaUTbKino413FyJTKdeFBsJ4Senn5DLYGYnyb1l

Were cloud seeding operations conducted on the storms that produced the Texas floods?
No. In fact, Texas regulations prohibit cloud seeding on storms that could produce severe weather, tornadoes, or flash floods. One of the companies singled out on social media for cloud seeding conducted its last operation on Wednesday, July 2nd.

Could the cloud seeding conducted two days before the floods have created or impacted the storms on July 4th?
No. Only an existing cloud can be seeded, and once that cloud has been seeded, it rains itself out. Furthermore, the cloud seeding took place southeast of San Antonio, roughly 150 miles away from Kerr County.

 

[Ann K]

I live on the German North Sea coast, and we rely on the levees to protect us. While there's an organisation spanning several counties that coordinates efforts and runs building projects etc., much of the responsibility rests on local volunteers who are each responsible for a short section of dike. On one day each year, all of these people walk their section in entirety and report on the condition of the dike. These are also often farmers or builders who would be called upon in an emergency to help shift sand bags with their equipment.

Wildfire safety and flood safety in endangered areas would really profit from a similar system, where local people know the infrastructure in their area and make sure it's intact. It's in their own best interest, after all. You'd have a lightly trained corps of volunteer helpers who'd know how to evacuate their own community in an emergency.

A dike that has the sea on one side and people on the other makes sense. But a dike that has people on one side and people on the other raises a good many more ethical concerns.

More than a century ago (1913), Ohio and surrounding states had a catastrophic flood. Massive flood control reservoirs were later created as a result by the construction of huge dams, but of course that took many acres away from the farmers that once occupied the valleys (and the integrity of all those old levees and dams is now a concern a century later). The canal locks were dynamited to provide greater water runoff, thus protecting some people while endangering others, and spelling the end of the era of barge transportation. Every decision has consequences, and every natural disaster needs its own set of decisions about mitigation, all made in a hurry while the disaster is at its height.

(An interesting tale from that time relates how the water kept rising in hard-hit Dayton, Ohio, and a man trapped in the library by the rising water went to a diorama depicting the native tribes that once lived there, took the birchbark canoe from the display, stepped into it out the third floor window, and paddled to safety.)

 

[FatPhil]

A good post explaining why cloud seeding isn't the cause

Source: https://www.facebook.com/TravisABC13/posts/pfbid0cFTegA2Smh8m55g1ZJe3t8uf68iaUTbKino413FyJTKdeFBsJ4Senn5DLYGYnyb1l

Were cloud seeding operations conducted on the storms that produced the Texas floods?
No. In fact, Texas regulations prohibit cloud seeding on storms that could produce severe weather, tornadoes, or flash floods. One of the companies singled out on social media for cloud seeding conducted its last operation on Wednesday, July 2nd.

Could the cloud seeding conducted two days before the floods have created or impacted the storms on July 4th?
No. Only an existing cloud can be seeded, and once that cloud has been seeded, it rains itself out. Furthermore, the cloud seeding took place southeast of San Antonio, roughly 150 miles away from Kerr County.

Ironically, cloud seeding is one of the few things that could have prevented the flooding by stopping the dangerous build-up.