Hurricane Milton

Mick West

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Milton

External Quote:
1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat.

4. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.
Hurricane Milton is currently a Category 5 storm, with sustained winds of 165mph, and looks set to be a historic disaster for Florida. There's already a lot of disinformation, and there will be a lot more when it actually happens.

Tampa and St Petersburg (and surrounding areas) are going to experience some of the worst of it. Many of the developments along the beach are only a few feet above sea level, and thousands of homes will be flooded.
 
The wife was chatting on Facebook with an old high school friend that lives in the Tampa area. They were flooded out with Helena, now bracing for round 2. What a mess. It seemed most of the houses had been cleaned out quickly and the drywall was already removed 1/2 way up the walls to prevent mold, but all of the garbage and flooded debris was stacked up in front of the houses waiting to be hauled off.
 
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There are already a bunch of claims of weather manipulation. Do we have a thread debunking weather manipulation?
 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152731.shtml?gm_track#contents
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The latest track has moved slightly south of Tampa and St Petersburg, slightly improving their storm surge outlook.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152731.shtml?tswind120#contents
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I heard one mind-boggling story on Reddit of people whose parents had evacuated to the North yesterday, and then heard the storm had moved a bit south, and so decided to return to Tampa.

A lot of people don't understand that the cone isn't the width of the storm, but indicates the uncertainty of the path of the eye. It might still go over Tampa. Even if it does not, they are still looking at a 10 foot storm surge and hurricane force winds.
 
There are already a bunch of claims of weather manipulation. Do we have a thread debunking weather manipulation?
We debunk claims of evidence. If you can find a claim that's got evidence, feel free to post it here (not just a link, the whole thing including the alleged evidence).
 
VERIFY, which syndicates fact-checking pieces to local TV stations, is working on a package about claims that the U.S. government is manufacturing hurricanes. They already have several reports on related hurricane issues up at verifythis.com.
Thanks. This looks like a site I need to add to my "check this daily" list.
 
Is this legit or a hoax?
The journalist behind /Russian Media Monitor/, Julia Davis, is usually very thorough, and I've never seen a translation called into question.
The pundits on Rossiya1 are off the scale on almost every axis I can put a name too, and many that I can't - it's kinda Goebbels meets Alex Jones.
This particular translation wasn't by her, but she retweeted it just a few hours ago. It should be one of he most recent Xits: https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews
Her YT chan:
Source: https://youtu.be/channel/UCoAw0n5OyITkmejSCMfmnWg?quality=hd720

[Somewhat delayed edit:
In her own words (from her Xitter page, bold mine):
External Quote:
Julia Davis
@JuliaDavisNews

Columnist @TheDailyBeast, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, author of a book "In Their Own Words."

I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to.
Incidentally, we *can't* see see Rossiya1 here. Our government has decided that the subpopulation that likes to celebrate new year at 23:00 might be a little bit too susceptible to the propaganda, so it's blocked. I hate censorship but on this matter they might be right.
]
 
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Claim: Kamala Harris' running mate Tim Walz (MN Governor) alleges Russia artificially created hurricane Milton

External Quote:
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I have received indisputable proof that hurricane Milton was artificially created by Russian scientists. They have somehow managed to alter Earth's gravitational field using the advanced technologies we know they possess.
Source: https://vk.com/wall193490291_242992
This claim was allegedly made by Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota and Kamala Harris' running mate, in a post on the social network X.com on October 10, 2024 (image attached).

However, there are serious doubts about the authenticity of this supposed tweet:
  • The screenshot first surfaced on October 12 among Russian pro-war activists on social media. They claim Walz quickly deleted the post, but the screenshot remains.
  • Upon checking Tim Walz's official X.com account, no traces of this post could be found. There are no credible reports of him making such a statement.
  • The extraordinary claim itself lacks any real evidence. What "indisputable proof" was received and from what source? Artificially creating hurricanes by altering Earth's gravity seems impossible with current scientific knowledge.
  • A single unverified social media post is not a reliable source for such a sensational claim, especially considering the suspicious origin of the screenshot.
  • The phrase "Russian scientists have somehow managed to alter Earth's gravitational field" is almost a verbatim quote from a well-known speech by Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, recorded in September 2002 in Iraq. This further indicates that the screenshot is a fabrication created by someone familiar with Zhirinovsky's statement.
Open questions:
  • Is this image a fabrication intended as disinformation? Who created it and for what purpose?
  • Did anyone else see this post during the short time it was allegedly up? Are there any other records or reactions to it?
  • Has Tim Walz or his representatives commented on the authenticity of the screenshot?
I'm looking for facts that could conclusively prove this tweet is real or expose it as a hoax.
 
I'm looking for facts that could conclusively prove this tweet is real or expose it as a hoax.
Common sense says that it's impossible Tim Walz posted this and nobody saw it; and that the people who did claim to see it commented on it 2 days later instead of right away.
But sure, facts are good, too.
 
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Is this legit or a hoax?
My native language is Russian. I found a recording of the "60 Minutes" TV show with this speech. I made an exact transcript:
External Quote:
Ну начну с того, что хочу сказать всем жителям Флориды: если бы вашим президентом был Дональд Трамп, то никакого урагана Милтон точно бы у вас не было. Надо об этом помнить. Но, к сожалению, ваш президент — Джо Байден. Конечно, он должен быть на боевом посту. Но он не сказал на каком — то ли в Овальном кабинете, то ли где-нибудь на пляже в Калифорнии. У него есть такие пляжные шортики симпатичные, с черепашками. Я не знаю, может он попытается каким-то образом повлиять на силу урагана Милтон. Я не знаю, каким образом он может это сделать. Вообще-то, на самом деле повлиять на эти процессы он не может. А если уж будут ликвидировать, то последствия этого урагана. А не влиять каким-то образом на ураган. Поэтому тут, конечно, по «Рамштайну», здесь есть некая политическая подоплёка.

— Спиридон Килинкаров, депутат Верховной Рады Украины V-VII созывов, в программе «60 минут»: Во встречу на базе "Рамштайн" вмешалась природа. Эфир от 09.10.2024 (11:30). — Таймкод: 01:12:00–01:12:42.
And I translated it using the claude-3-opus neural network:
Well, let me start by saying this to all the residents of Florida: if Donald Trump were your president, you definitely wouldn't have any Hurricane Milton. You need to remember that. But unfortunately, your president is Joe Biden. Of course, he should be at his combat post. But he didn't say which one — either in the Oval Office or somewhere on a beach in California. He has these cute beach shorts with little turtles on them. I don't know, maybe he will try to somehow influence the strength of Hurricane Milton. I don't know how he can do that. Actually, in fact, he cannot influence these processes at all. And if they are going to eliminate anything, it will be the consequences of this hurricane. Not influencing the hurricane itself in any way. So here, of course, regarding Ramstein, there is some political underpinning.

— Spiridon Kilinkarov, Member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 5th-7th convocations, in the "60 Minutes" program: Nature interfered with the meeting at the Ramstein base. Aired on 09.10.2024 (11:30). — Timecode: 01:12:00–01:12:42.

According to Wikipedia, Spiridon Kilinkarov is on the sanctions list of Ukraine because "he spreads Kremlin disinformation and propaganda and supports the war against Ukraine."

On the day this program aired, October 9, at 5:48 (UTC), Kilinkarov wrote on his Telegram channel:
External Quote:
Если бы Трамп был президентом, то никакого урагана «Милтон» не было бы.

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If Trump were president, there would be no Hurricane "Milton".

Source
This phrase was probably inspired by the latest post at that time from the Telegram channel of the former President of Russia and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, from October 6, at 7:33 (UTC):
External Quote:
<…> 4. Нетленка от Трампа: «Если бы президентом был я, то войны в [вставьте любое] удалось бы избежать!» <…>

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<...> 4. An immortal quote from Trump: "If I were president, the war in [insert any] could have been avoided!" <...>

Source
This sentence is a reference to the Harris-Trump debate on September 11, where Trump stated:
If I win, when I'm President-Elect, and what I'll do is I'll speak to one, I'll speak to the other, I'll get them together. That war would have never happened. And in fact when I saw Putin after I left, unfortunately left because our country has gone to hell, but after I left when I saw him building up soldiers, he did it after I left, I said oh, he must be negotiating. It must be a good strong point of negotiation. Well, it wasn't because Biden had no idea how to talk to him. He had no idea how to stop it.
The Russian media outlets "Vedomosti" and "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" interpret a phrase by Medvedev as a direct reference to this statement by Trump.
 
Even when an original tweet is deleted, retweets remain. I can find no retweets of this even by aggregator bots that just collect tweets from certain groups, only tweets of the image. Those bots are fast, too, they catch plenty of tweets that people they're harvesting delete.

These screenshots are trivial to produce. Tweetgen.com, for example, produces images identical to this. You can scrape the user info from a real account or fabricate one yourself.
 
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[*]Is this image a fabrication intended as disinformation? Who created it and for what purpose?

It's clearly intended for a Russian-supporting audience, as that's where it's doing the rounds. It looks like some people have believed it. E.g. this guy's a public official in the Kursk region, and has nearly 200k followers, he definitely seems to think this is the work of Russia, and using Walz's xit to back that claim up:
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He expresses surprise that it was being called "Milton", not "Putin" - his final sentence even seems to be joking that he expects America to adopt a new religion "witnesses to all-powerful Putin". However, my Russian's sketchy at the best of times, I only see keywords, and probably miss all nuance. (e.g. is he being ironic?)
 
My native language is Russian. I found a recording of the "60 Minutes" TV show with this speech. I made an exact transcript:
Thanks, that's helpful.
I can imagine a tone for this where the first part of the statement is sarcastic. In that case, we'd be looking at an example of Poe's law.
External Quote:
Poe's law is an adage of Internet culture which says that, without a clear indicator of the author's intent, any parodic or sarcastic expression of extreme views can be mistaken by some readers for a sincere expression of those views.[1][2][3]
P.S. @apsydium is a new member, and their post was held up in moderation until after @FatPhil's post.
 
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