Dietrich is BY FAR the most credible and reasonable eye witness of all of them. No agenda, no assumptions (and if, she clearly labels them as such), no ego.
I believe a submarine (Louisville or another) deploying EW balloons, maybe tethered at the beginning, makes the most sense now.
28k feet, 100 knots, SE movement matches the weather report for winds at this altitude!
They spoofed the same signature, maybe by accident maybe to have a laugh to appear at CAP point. Maybe they already deployed multiple balloons with a similar signature and they thought balloon 1 is the same as balloon 2. This could definitely explain the "snowflakes" of Kevin Day.
It would also make sense to either test the new radar of the princeton OR it was just a EW exercise for the louisville (maybe a combination of both).
I dont know how EW in 2004 worked but maybe there were multiple balloons in the air, reflecting radar signature when their reflector had a specific angle and when this angle of the reflector changed due to wind it didnt return a ping.
The AATIP report stated the uss louisville was in the area and didnt notice anything "unusual" on its sonar.
She said they could rule out "A life fire situation from a submarine in the area", EW deployment is not a life fire exercise.
To this day we dont know the position of the lousiville nor do we have a single testimony from her crew. Makes you wonder..
The 10 seconds time frame, Dietrich following Fravor does solve the parallax issue of two oberservers, no radar, no flir, only eyes combined with Fravors extreme self believe how he cant misjudge size and distance because hes an instructor, Fravor pushing ET narratives, etc
Im 99% sure this is roughly what happened.