Florida Contrails and Flight Tracking

Joe

Senior Member
Maybe where you live they do . Only been almost 2 years since I seen this much . Have you ever surfed Mick ? Or at least in Florida where you sit waiting for a swell with nothing to look at but the sky ? Have you ever seen a rocket launch from Cape Canaveral from sixty miles away ? What I saw yesterday was much worse then Iv seen in quite a while . Too much air traffic in a short time to be airliners . Im sure more are coming to Florida this time of year but Flightaware doesnt support or show this amount of activity. IOt really doesnt matter much we could have a massive alien invasion (not from Mexico ) and the American Public wouldt care or even notice . Not that I belive in Space Aliens :) .
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Maybe where you live they do . Only been almost 2 years since I seen this much . Have you ever surfed Mick ? Or at least in Florida where you sit waiting for a swell with nothing to look at but the sky ? Have you ever seen a rocket launch from Cape Canaveral from sixty miles away ? What I saw yesterday was much worse then Iv seen in quite a while . Too much air traffic in a short time to be airliners . Im sure more are coming to Florida this time of year but Flightaware doesnt support or show this amount of activity. IOt really doesnt matter much we could have a massive alien invasion (not from Mexico ) and the American Public wouldt care or even notice . Not that I belive in Space Aliens :) .
"Too much air traffic in a short time". Let's try to put numbers on that. How much air traffic? In what time?

Looking at your photo:


I see about seven trails, maybe ten tops. Probably laid within an hour of each other, based on their size. Now you live in Indian River County, right? (based on your blog). Well here's 24 hours of traffic in the general area. All the blue lines are ABOVE 30,000 feet, and hence potential contrails.


You might also be interested in this post, as it's discussing traffic in the general area:
http://contrailscience.com/contrail-grids-are-not-chemtrail-grids/

Basically what you are seeing is unusual weather. Unusual weather is something that happens every so often.
 
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Joe

Senior Member
correct the southern edge of indian river county less then a mile of st lucie . why do most of the aircraft not show up on flightaware ? I know there is a delay of a few minutes
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
correct the southern edge of indian river county less then a mile of st lucie . why do most of the aircraft not show up on flightaware ? I know there is a delay of a few minutes
You need to be focussed on a nearby airport, like KMLB:
http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KMLB

But even so, it does not give very good coverage, seemingly just a sample of the planes.

Try FR24, which is a lot better now they added FAA data:
http://fr24.com/27.57,-80.64/8
 

Joe

Senior Member
Iv tried going back to Sunday on Flightrader and even though ours skies were quite busy that day . It didnt look that way at all on Flightrader ? I do like the view from the cockpit that works nice with Google earth . Seems from what I see there seems to be more activity above then shows up . Does it track Military Flights ?
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Iv tried going back to Sunday on Flightrader and even though ours skies were quite busy that day . It didnt look that way at all on Flightrader ? I do like the view from the cockpit that works nice with Google earth . Seems from what I see there seems to be more activity above then shows up . Does it track Military Flights ?
I don't think it tracks military flights.
 

Joe

Senior Member
Thanks . Does it track all of them ? The Non Military ? Im watching this guy in a Beechcraft flying around in circles for the past few hours . must be training ? N6003Y
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Thanks . Does it track all of them ? The Non Military ? Im watching this guy in a Beechcraft flying around in circles for the past few hours . must be training ? N6003Y
I think it tracks anything that would file a flight plan. But I'm not entirely sure. I know it does not track all the small general aviation planes flying visual flight rules.

N6003Y:



Looks like flight training to me. Some flying around in loops, and what looks like 2 or 3 landings at KFPR. That's the kind of thing I did when flight training.

It's owned by Aviator Flight Training Academy
http://www.aviator.edu/FlightSchool

You can get the Google Earth file from here:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N6003Y/history/20121212/0346Z/KFPR/KFPR

 
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scombrid

Senior Member.
Maybe where you live they do . Only been almost 2 years since I seen this much .
I've lived on the east coast of Florida for 9 years. I'm still amazed at how much clearer the air is here on average than back home in Virginia. By clearer I mean much less particulate haze because of the maritime influence on our airmass. Summer high pressure up north means lots of pollution trapped under the cap. High pressure here in summer usually puts us in a maritime subtropical airmass. There have been tons of contrails since I've been here and the contrails were/are typically N-S oriented since most of our commercial traffic heads up to the hubs north of here. I haven't seen a change in frequency or duration of trails. I surf. I surfski. Surfski is 1-2X per day 5-7 days per week. I'm also a biologist and do field work a couple of days per week. I watch the sky a lot.


Too much air traffic in a short time to be airliners .
I just did a search for one way non-stop from South Florida (primarily WPB, MIA, FTL to JFK, Newark, LGA for next Sunday between 6AM and Noon. I got 39 flights. That's one way. There will be reciprocal going the other way so there will be 80 flights along that corridor in that 8 hour block. That also doesn't count flights to the NYC area that make stops. If I include those the search engine I use pegs out at 250 flights, a huge number of which are Delta to Atlanta and US Airways to Charlotte with connections to the NYC area.

That's a lot of flights and not inconsistent with the contrails along the east coast of FL last Sunday.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I just did a search for one way non-stop from South Florida (primarily WPB, MIA, FTL to JFK, Newark, LGA for next Sunday between 6AM and Noon. I got 39 flights. That's one way. There will be reciprocal going the other way so there will be 80 flights along that corridor in that 8 hour block. That also doesn't count flights to the NYC area that make stops. If I include those the search engine I use pegs out at 250 flights, a huge number of which are Delta to Atlanta and US Airways to Charlotte with connections to the NYC area.

That's a lot of flights and not inconsistent with the contrails along the east coast of FL last Sunday.


If you let me know your exact location, I can refine it.

(There's a few flights there that are not going through the blue circle, those are additional legs of multi-leg flights)

Edit: actually that was a bit off DAB, centering exactly gives 365 flights:
 
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Joe

Senior Member
So im guessing you work for a university or the govenment ? ("That's a lot of flights and not inconsistent with the contrails along the east coast of FL last Sunday. )" I tried looking for those flights and didnt see what in saw in the sky ?
 

Joe

Senior Member
Can you get me a zoom on Vero beach from last sunday ? 10 am till 12noon est ? Mick
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
For a start though, here's the 24 hours of flyover traffic (above 30,000 feet). 181 flights within 50 miles.


Note the two fairly thick lines just to the left of VRB, thats a lot of flights on the same tracks. They go between PBI (Palm Beach) and MLB (Miami), but are not all from those airports, just using them as navigation points.
 
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Joe

Senior Member
yes it seems that AA and delta along with many other airlines use that thick line or corridor on the path going south .so ive noticed . Between I-95 and the coast .
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
yes it seems that AA and delta along with many other airlines use that thick line or corridor on the path going south .so ive noticed . Between I-95 and the coast .
Here's the traffic within 10 miles of VRB, most of which is along the PBI-MLB track. I've sorted them by time, which is PST, so add 3. 10-12 EST would be 7-9 EST, which I've bolded.

10 miles is pretty much overhead though, you can easily see contrails up to 50 miles, which gives us 181 flights, and here are the 10-12 flights

Interesting there's only 2 flights in the 7 range (10AM), then a lot more in the 11AM and 12AM ranges.
 

scombrid

Senior Member.
Thanks for the DAB info. Note that some of our best contrail days over the peninsula are when the subtropical jet stream is vigorous and trails are rapidly advected from west to east. I'm 25 mile inland of DAB. Trails laid over the Tampa area by flights between Miami and Houston (busy route) area visible in the western sky and will pass overhead within 90 minutes while trails created overhead will pass off shore quickly.
 

SR1419

Senior Member.
To me this data highlights just how much air traffic there is- traffic that most people are probably oblivious too...and how easy it would be, if conditions permit, to create a grid of contrails.

TreasureCoast- I am curious, have your opinions regarding "chemtrails" changed at all since you have participated in this forum? Am I correct in recalling that you were very convinced of some type of spray campaign at one point? Didn't you participate at AirCrap.org at times? or was that someone else?
 

Joe

Senior Member
To me this data highlights just how much air traffic there is- traffic that most people are probably oblivious too...and how easy it would be, if conditions permit, to create a grid of contrails.

TreasureCoast- I am curious, have your opinions regarding "chemtrails" changed at all since you have participated in this forum? Am I correct in recalling that you were very convinced of some type of spray campaign at one point? Didn't you participate at AirCrap.org at times? or was that someone else?
My opinions have changed slightly . Iv look into both chemtrails and geoengineering and always tried to stick with the geoengineering aspect only. The fact that there are trails over the Whitehouse would lead me to belive that there isnt threat to my health at the time . That would rule out all the diseases and sicknesses that would come with spraying . They are persistant ugly contarils and the only health threat to me is my daily dose of Vitamin D . Iv always tried to stick with facts and consider my self a skywatcher not a chemtrailer . I like when I am engaged with facts on this site . Insults which I do get from time to time on this site however are counter productive . Mick has always been civil and engages with science and facts . When others learn to do the same it would only help the cause . In the end if I find out that it has always been like this and my skies will always look like crap . I will stop looking up :) .
 

George B

Extinct but not forgotten Staff Member
My opinions have changed slightly . Iv look into both chemtrails and geoengineering and always tried to stick with the geoengineering aspect only. The fact that there are trails over the Whitehouse would lead me to belive that there isnt threat to my health at the time . That would rule out all the diseases and sicknesses that would come with spraying . They are persistant ugly contarils and the only health threat to me is my daily dose of Vitamin D . Iv always tried to stick with facts and consider my self a skywatcher not a chemtrailer . I like when I am engaged with facts on this site . Insults which I do get from time to time on this site however are counter productive . Mick has always been civil and engages with science and facts . When others learn to do the same it would only help the cause . In the end if I find out that it has always been like this and my skies will always look like crap . I will stop looking up :) .
IMO there is no reason to have so much crap in the sky . . . a 2 - 3% increase in fuel costs on persistent contrail optimal days would dramatically reduce their frequency . . .

 

Joe

Senior Member
IMO there is no reason to have so much crap in the sky . . . a 2 - 3% increase in fuel costs on persistent contrail optimal days would dramatically reduce their frequency . . .

Id have to agree . Could it just be theyve changed the fuel so that there are persistant contarils ? I remember living near LAX as a kid (1972) how you could see the blackness coming out of the jet engines as they landed along the 405 freeway . They seemed to get cleaner over the years . But i still dont remember Contrails everywhere even then . Did they remove sulphur like they did in diesel fuel only to add it later again ?
 

George B

Extinct but not forgotten Staff Member
I came upon this study and find it interesting . . . the research indicates that Cirrus Cloud reductions (through a type of high tropospheric cloud seeding) could result in slowing global warming and that commercial aviation could be the easiest and cheapest way to accomplish such geoengineering without much of the side effects of sulfur injection for example . . . the amount of cloud seeding material would be small in comparison to the sulfur injected into the stratosphere . . .

 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Id have to agree . Could it just be theyve changed the fuel so that there are persistant contarils ? I remember living near LAX as a kid (1972) how you could see the blackness coming out of the jet engines as they landed along the 405 freeway . They seemed to get cleaner over the years . But i still dont remember Contrails everywhere even then . Did they remove sulphur like they did in diesel fuel only to add it later again ?
The fuel is pretty much the same. The higher efficiency engines create more contrails because of the cooler exhaust. The biggest factor of course is the increase in flyover traffic. None of the local LAX traffic would have made contrails in 1972, but now there's a lot more North-South traffic over LAX for San Diego and Mexico.

We still get very few contrails in Los Angeles (I'm just 4 miles for LAX, so, again, get no contrails from LAX traffic). Contrail season picks up when the rains do.
 

George B

Extinct but not forgotten Staff Member
Id have to agree . Could it just be theyve changed the fuel so that there are persistant contarils ? I remember living near LAX as a kid (1972) how you could see the blackness coming out of the jet engines as they landed along the 405 freeway . They seemed to get cleaner over the years . But i still dont remember Contrails everywhere even then . Did they remove sulphur like they did in diesel fuel only to add it later again ?
Persistence is caused by a few factors since the 1970s
1) More efficient and larger engines
2) Increased number and frequency of air traffic above 30,000 feet where air is more optimal for persistence
 

FreiZeitGeist

Senior Member.
IMO there is no reason to have so much crap in the sky . . . a 2 - 3% increase in fuel costs on persistent contrail optimal days would dramatically reduce their frequency . . .
A small groupe around a german researcher named Prof. Peter Spichtinger trying to make these ideas popular - he often mentioned that flexible flight-ranges could sink the rate of contrails.

suddenly, most of his work is only available in german.

Here are his publications: http://www.staff.uni-mainz.de/spichtin/

The paper I´d read was "Spichtinger, P., 2004: Eisübersättigte Regionen. DLR-Forschungsbericht FB-2004-21, pp. 211. (PhD Thesis)"

There is also a radio-podcast in english from him:

Last month I spoke with Dr. Peter Spichtinger at the ETH in Zurich about his work studying cirrus clouds in the upper atmosphere and the need for more complete cloud models:
http://90degrees.shashafeng.com/sound/peter-spichtinger_11-28-08.mp3
View attachment peter-spichtinger_11-28-08.mp3

Download and save it, the blog this podcast belongs to, is actually closed and deleted.
 

Ross Marsden

Senior Member.
Persistence is caused by a few factors since the 1970s
1) More efficient and larger engines
2) Increased number and frequency of air traffic above 30,000 feet where air is more optimal for persistence
"More efficient and larger engines" is not a cause of contrail persistence.

Also, the air above 30,000 feet is no more "optimal for persistence" than the air below 30,000 feet. Where did you read that?

Perhaps you had better re-think and clarify your statements. :)

On persistent contrail mitigation, I have seen research that says that a change in altitude of 1000 feet will get you out of the ice-supersaturated layer on most occasions that you find your self in one - or something like that. I will find the reference and post it.
 

FreiZeitGeist

Senior Member.
Another point why more contrails are seen is, that smaller commercial airlines are using more Jets instead of propeller-driven airliner. Actually most European Airlines replacing their Probs with modern Jets a planespotter sayed me.
 

Fred259

New Member
IMO there is no reason to have so much crap in the sky . . . a 2 - 3% increase in fuel costs on persistent contrail optimal days would dramatically reduce their frequency . . .
It would be nice to think airlines would consider this however this article published in the London Guardian reveals that British Airways were spending 7 million GBP per day on fuel. ( 11,300,000 USD per day)

So with a 50 million pound fuel bill per week 2% would be another million per week in extra costs wouldn’t it.

This then means George that you the passenger may have to pay an extra £50 on the airline ticket which we assume you are quite OK about.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/04/british-airways-raises-fuel-surcharge

However don’t despair....Rolls Royce and the industry has been working for some time trying to mitigate the effects of persistent trails.



http://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...y-airborne-microwave-emitter-research-319138/


http://news.virginia.edu/content/uv...n-rolls-royce-and-commonwealth-further-reduce
 

George B

Extinct but not forgotten Staff Member
"More efficient and larger engines" is not a cause of contrail persistence.

Also, the air above 30,000 feet is no more "optimal for persistence" than the air below 30,000 feet. Where did you read that?

Perhaps you had better re-think and clarify your statements. :)

On persistent contrail mitigation, I have seen research that says that a change in altitude of 1000 feet will get you out of the ice-supersaturated layer on most occasions that you find your self in one - or something like that. I will find the reference and post it.
I think you will find that more efficient engines have cooler exhaust which lead to higher Relative Humidity of the plume and greater chance of persistence in optimal air; the air above 30,000 has a higher liklyhood of being below -40 C and is above where most long haul aviation cruises . . .
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I think you will find that more efficient engines have cooler exhaust which lead to higher Relative Humidity of the plume and greater chance of persistence in optimal air; the air above 30,000 has a higher liklyhood of being below -40 C and is above where most long haul aviation cruises . . .
It does not actually make a contrail more likely to persist, as that depends on the ambient air temp and humidity. It DOES make it more likely to be created in the first place, so it will increase the number of contrails, both short and persistent.
 

Joe

Senior Member
Persistence is caused by a few factors since the 1970s
1) More efficient and larger engines
2) Increased number and frequency of air traffic above 30,000 feet where air is more optimal for persistence
No more jumbo jets just more little sardine cans packed full :(
 

George B

Extinct but not forgotten Staff Member
Well Fred . . . I think your estimate is way over the top for the following reasons . . . world wide persistent contrail optimal air (supersaturation for ice) is (if my memory is correct) 15 - 17% at cruising altitudes . . . one need only alter altitude or vector on those days . . . of course the UK may have more optimal days than say Spain for example . . . and you are so correct about fuel costs . . . it would be a universal burden all effected equally . . . and my gasoline costs vary more than 1-2% percent in one week . . . so no sympathy their either . . . LoL!!!!


 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
You'd also need to spend a few hundred million dollars on getting the system up and running, and then millions yearly in operating costs. Nobody want to pay that, so nobody is going to do it. Especially when the benefits are so uncertain.
 
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