• MH370 speculation has become excessive recently. Metabunk is not a forum for creating theories by speculation. It's a forum for examining claims, and seeing if they hold up. Please respect this and keep threads on-topic. There are many other forums where speculation is welcome.

Flight MH370 Speculation

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WeedWhacker

Senior Member
There will be a press conference in 40 minutes time.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/missing-flight-hijacked-2014-3

The Malaysians are now saying there is conclusive evidence the aircraft was hijacked. Note the language there. Not "terrorism".

Prediction: The phrase "The aircraft appears to have been hijacked by persons unknown..." or something similar will be put forward.

And still...no reports of a landing anywhere? No 'demands' transmitted (as is usual with a hijacking/hostage situation).

"Curiouser and Curiouser"...Alice, and the 'White Rabbit' pop to mind.
 

Soulfly

Banned
Banned
There will be a press conference in 40 minutes time.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/missing-flight-hijacked-2014-3

The Malaysians are now saying there is conclusive evidence the aircraft was hijacked. Note the language there. Not "terrorism".

Prediction: The phrase "The aircraft appears to have been hijacked by persons unknown..." or something similar will be put forward.
I think by nature (definition?) a hijacking is an act of terrorism.
 

TWCobra

Senior Member.
Not necessarily. Terrorism is done for political purposes. A hijacking .... not always.

Edit: The Malaysian PM has confirmed the westerly track of the aircraft and the fact that the ACARS was disabled before it crossed the coast, which may have been before Top of Climb and therefore explains why no TOC report was sent by the ACARS. The transponder was also turned off.

Once again this strongly suggests pilot intervention.
 
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Soulfly

Banned
Banned
Not necessarily. Terrorism is done for political purposes. A hijacking .... not always.

Edit: The Malaysian PM has confirmed the westerly track of the aircraft and the fact that the ACARS was disabled before it crossed the coast, which may have been before Top of Climb and therefore explains why no TOC report was sent by the ACARS. The transponder was also turned off.

Once again this strongly suggests pilot intervention.
I can only think of a few reason to hijack.
Political
Ransom
Pilot suicide

I would think pilot suicide would happen and there would be no need to divert or turn off transponders.
Unless... a pilot just started going ape shit smashing stuff in the cockpit.
 

TWCobra

Senior Member.
A 777 in practical terms needs a 5000 foot sealed airstrip as a minimum. Those sorts of airstrips generally have some substantial infrastructure associated with them. If it is on the ground, someone would have noticed by now.

Re pilot suicide. The other two glaring examples of this occurred as soon as the flight deck was cleared of other pilots. I can conceive of reasons however why putting the aircraft somewhere it is unlikely to be ever found may be desirable.

We may never know. If they went south there is nothing between the southern Indonesian coast and Antartica. According to the release from Malaysia the last Satcom contact was 7 hours after the aircraft disappeared. Where do you start trying to look?
 
J

Joe

Guest
The missing plane was airborne for more than seven hours, Malaysia's Prime Minister said.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
A 777 in practical terms needs a 5000 foot sealed airstrip as a minimum. Those sorts of airstrips generally have some substantial infrastructure associated with them. If it is on the ground, someone would have noticed by now.

Theoretically, it could have done a gear-up landing in a dry lake bed or similar.
http://theflyingengineer.com/out-of-the-blue/lot-767-gear-up-landing/


Not very likely. And it would probably still be dark, unless it went to Australia. And then it's still got to avoid defense radar.

I'm thinking it's in the Indian Ocean, but I don't think I'd put any money on anything right now.
 

Soulfly

Banned
Banned
I can only think of a few reason to hijack.
Political
Ransom
Pilot suicide

I would think pilot suicide would happen and there would be no need to divert or turn off transponders.
Unless... a pilot just started going ape shit smashing stuff in the cockpit.
I'm going to add another to this.
Hijacked and landed plane so could use as weapon at a later time.
 

Trigger Hippie

Senior Member.
As an obscure side note:

According to a Dr. Stone, it looks like the search teams are not using Bayesian search methods to locate the plane.

The CBC just ran an interview with him. He's one of the scientists that used the complex mathematical algorithm to search for, and find Air France 447 in the north Atlantic. He said similar techniques are routinely used to find missing ships, submarines and people. It took 2 yrs to locate Air France 447 (edit: data recorders) and he described that search as one of the most complex in history. He said the missing Malaysian flight is an even more complex situation.

A Bayesian search employs a kind of feedback loop that constantly refines parameter to maximize the search area. Basically it involves probability, computer models and science, none of which I understand.

I believe this is the same guy...

http://www.metsci.com/News/articleT...-BBC-Radio-about-Malaysian-Airline-Flight-370
 
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Balance

Senior Member.
Has anyone uncovered exactly what this immarsat satellite data has/can reveal? From reports coming out, I'm guessing exact plane ID and a vague large geographical area of transmission reception?

Another report emerged on Saturday indicating that MH370 may have turned south towards the Indian Ocean, where it is believed to have last been identified some 1,000 miles west of Perth in Australia, according to satellite "pings" that recorded the plane's data, Bloomberg reported.
Content from External Source
 

Soulfly

Banned
Banned
It took 2 yrs to locate Air France 447 and he described that search as one of the most complex in history.
The wreckage was found in 5 days, the flight recorders took two years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447
While Brazilian Navy authorities were able to remove from the sea the first major wreckage and two bodies within five days of the accident, initial investigation was hampered because the aircraft'sblack boxes were not recovered from the ocean floor until May 2011, nearly two years later.
Content from External Source
 

Balance

Senior Member.
satellite.jpg

Interesting use of language "two possible corridors" and that the satellite operators would not be named.

This is the map issued by the Malaysian authorities. The red lines are the two possible corridors where MH370 was detected by a satellite over the Indian Ocean. The authorities would not say who operated the satellite.
Content from External Source
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
As an obscure side note:

According to a Dr. Stone, it looks like the search teams are not using Bayesian search methods to locate the plane.

The CBC just ran an interview with him. He's one of the scientists that used the complex mathematical algorithm to search for, and find Air France 447 in the north Atlantic. He said similar techniques are routinely used to find missing ships, submarines and people. It took 2 yrs to locate Air France 447 and he described that search as one of the most complex in history. He said the missing Malaysian flight is an even more complex situation.

A Bayesian search employs a kind of feedback loop that constantly refines parameter to maximize the search area. Basically it involves probability, computer models and science, none of which I understand.

I believe this is the same guy...

http://www.metsci.com/News/articleT...-BBC-Radio-about-Malaysian-Airline-Flight-370

There's some detail of the algorithm here:
https://www.informs.org/ORMS-Today/...8-Number-4/In-Search-of-Air-France-Flight-447

There's a key difference in these cases
[for AF 447] The Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) sends messages via satellite containing maintenance and logistic information about the aircraft. Every 10 minutes it sends a GPS position for the aircraft. The last reported position (last known position (LKP), 2.98°N latitude/30.59° W longitude) was sent at 02 hours, 10 minutes and 34 seconds UTC on June 1, 2009. Based on failure to receive any ACARS messages after 02 hours, 14 minutes and 26 seconds, the BEA estimated that the plane could not have stayed in the air longer than 280 seconds or traveled more than 40 nautical miles (NM) from the LKP before crashing into the ocean.
Content from External Source
And it still took two years.

Which gives a very very small search area compared to the MH370 area, like about 1/10,000th the area. And the model here is vastly more complex, as there are so many possible ditch points.

You could certainly set up a probability model in the search for surface debris though.
 
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SR1419

Senior Member.
I apologize for being so out of the loop and pressed for time as such I cannot read the entire thread...

But whatever happened in regards to the debris captured by the Chinese satellite images that wasn't supposed to be released or whatever?

thanks in advance.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I apologize for being so out of the loop and pressed for time as such I cannot read the entire thread...

But whatever happened in regards to the debris captured by the Chinese satellite images that wasn't supposed to be released or whatever?

thanks in advance.

Nothing really happened. They said it was not plane debris, checked the area, and moved on.
 

Aaron Cropper

New Member
In addition to the aforementioned reasons a pilot on MH370 might have hijacked his own plane (Political, Ransom, Pilot suicide), we need to add Criminal Flight - as in trying to get away from something or with something (e.g. stolen treasure).

e.g. Transporting stolen money to a hideway in the wilds of Thailand, Burma, or the 500+ uninhabited islands of the Andaman chain.

All the evidence so far actually fits this scenario - that someone is trying to getaway and hide:
1) Pretense of normal operations with the radio is maintained throughout planned Malaysian air route. Said goodbye to Malaysian ATC.
2) Check-in with Vietnamese ATC is not done.
3) Transponders of various types purposely switched off.
4) Use of normal passenger flight lanes back across Malaysia so as not to attract notice.
5) Plane is last tracked within an hour of potential Andaman, Thai, or Burmese hideouts.
6) No meaningful ransom or terroristic threat. This plane and its pilot are trying (and so far succeeding) to hide, not in making a statement.

So there are several important implications of this:
a) plane may be intact
b) Black Boxes may be switched off as well
c) Plane could be landed, crash landed, or ditched in water near a hideaway

So in terms of search, we should have authorities on the ground combing remote areas on land as well as islands.
We should also intensify the investigation vis-a-vis any of the passenger cell phones that might have made contact with towers on the ground. More on that in another post.
 

Aaron Cropper

New Member
Passenger Cell Phone Tracking

Has anyone seen anything on this? It should be getting investigated. Even if a full telephone call could not be sustained, some of the passenger phones should have been pinging towers near Panang.

1. Once back over the Malay penninsula, the plane would certainly have been in range with some cell towers. Not to rule out the possibility of there being towers on oil platforms in the South China Sea as well.

2. Even if most of the passengers had their phones in 'airplane', inactive mode, on a plane this size, there should have been a few left active.

3. On 9/11 there were many calls from passengers. Albeit at low altitude. The lack of any call from a passenger does not bode well for the possibility of survivors. But perhaps phones were confiscated and passengers are still alive but held prisoner.

Passengers Cell Phone Tracking could provide valuable clues on where the plane went after the last satellite ping. However, the plane descended, the passenger cell phones should have been getting stronger signals to towers.

To make this actionable, the Malay, Chinese, et al governments should be distributing the ESIDs of phones likely to have been on the plane to the government and telecommunications agencies that could comb through the cell tower logs to find a trace of MH370.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Passenger Cell Phone Tracking

Has anyone seen anything on this? It should be getting investigated. Even if a full telephone call could not be sustained, some of the passenger phones should have been pinging towers near Panang.

1. Once back over the Malay penninsula, the plane would certainly have been in range with some cell towers. Not to rule out the possibility of there being towers on oil platforms in the South China Sea as well.

2. Even if most of the passengers had their phones in 'airplane', inactive mode, on a plane this size, there should have been a few left active.

3. On 9/11 there were many calls from passengers. Albeit at low altitude. The lack of any call from a passenger does not bode well for the possibility of survivors. But perhaps phones were confiscated and passengers are still alive but held prisoner.

Passengers Cell Phone Tracking could provide valuable clues on where the plane went after the last satellite ping. However, the plane descended, the passenger cell phones should have been getting stronger signals to towers.

To make this actionable, the Malay, Chinese, et al governments should be distributing the ESIDs of phones likely to have been on the plane to the government and telecommunications agencies that could comb through the cell tower logs to find a trace of MH370.

I think the majority of the 9/11 calls were made by air-phone, not by cell phone. It certainly seems possible that a signal might have been recorded somewhere though.
 

George B

Extinct but not forgotten Staff Member
I think the majority of the 9/11 calls were made by air-phone, not by cell phone. It certainly seems possible that a signal might have been recorded somewhere though.
This is some new info I think?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-plane-data-3243876
BREAKING

Reports coming out of China that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's wife and three children had moved out of the family home the day before flight MH370 disappeared.
Content from External Source
 

George B

Extinct but not forgotten Staff Member
This is some new info I think?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-plane-data-3243876
BREAKING

Reports coming out of China that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's wife and three children had moved out of the family home the day before flight MH370 disappeared.
Content from External Source
Some motivation for Muslim actions against Chinese interest:


http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/29/world/asia/china-plane-hijack-foiled/

Uyghurs are Turkic Muslims, a group linguistically, culturally and religiously distinct from China's majority Han population.



Chinese authorities have often blamed militants of Uyghur descent for outbreaks of violence in Xinjiang in recent years, labeling them terrorists.

Xinjiang was rocked by the worst violence in decades in July 2009 when rioting between Uyghurs and Han Chinese left nearly 200 people dead and 1,700 wounded in the regional capital, Urumqi.
Content from External Source
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
This is some new info I think?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-plane-data-3243876
BREAKING

Reports coming out of China that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's wife and three children had moved out of the family home the day before flight MH370 disappeared.
Content from External Source

Could be nothing. They have two houses. Maybe they always go stay in the other house when he is away.

(I could only find a cached version of the story)
http://archive.is/3OHcW
THE family of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, pilot of the vanished MH370, had moved out of their residence in Laman Seri even before the flight's disappearance last Saturday.

The Malay Mail visited the family's house yesterday but discovered no one at home, except their 38-year-old maid.

"Captain Zaharie's wife and three children had camped at their second house in Subang a day before the incident," said Norhayati Wahiduddin.

"They only came back once to collect some clothes and they just asked if everything was alright around the house."

Norhayati also dismissed claims that police had raided the house as reported by a local Malay daily.

"No one has come in," she said, adding that Zaharie's wife had move out with their three children.

"The eldest is already working, the second recently completed studies in Australia and the third is still studying. "They're not that close to the neighbours here because they don't always live in this house."
Content from External Source
 

Pete Tar

Senior Member.
What is the nature of this satellite data they are talking about? How do they know it was flying and where it was? Do they have actual co-ordinates?


we need to add Criminal Flight - as in trying to get away from something or with something (e.g. stolen treasure).
e.g. Transporting stolen money to a hideway in the wilds of Thailand, Burma, or the 500+ uninhabited islands of the Andaman chain.
All the evidence so far actually fits this scenario - that someone is trying to getaway and hide:
That seems unlikley considering there's a plane full of passengers. Hardly handy for hiding loot, or yourself, with hundreds of witnesses.
He could easily have found an empty smaller plane to do that. And landing a 777 is not exactly convenient for that scenario.
It would be an incredibly backwards plot if that were the case.
 

WeedWhacker

Senior Member
This is some new info I think?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysian-airlines-plane-data-3243876
BREAKING

Reports coming out of China that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's wife and three children had moved out of the family home the day before flight MH370 disappeared.
Content from External Source

Not seeing the mention of the Captain's wife and family in that 'Mirror' article, but I did find this as confirmation of interest:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/terror-...-pilot-zaharie-ahmad-shah-20140315-34u3n.html

" Police raid home of Malaysian pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah "

On Saturday, a police van with a large contingent of officers inside passed through a security gate at the entrance to the luxury compound where Shah, a father-of-three, lives with his wife Faisa.

The family lives in a luxury gated community in Shah Alam, outside Kuala Lumpur. Malaysian media reports quoted colleagues describing Shah as a “superb pilot”, who also served as an examiner, authorised by the Malaysian Civil Aviation Department, to conduct simulator tests for pilots.

Police spent two hours inside the home, and left carrying small bags, similar to shopping bags, CNN reported.
Content from External Source
No word though as to the status and whereabouts of the wife and children (not in that article, anyhow).



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/terror-...-ahmad-shah-20140315-34u3n.html#ixzz2w49ObGFp
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Just for the record, theres a big difference between suicide and murdering children. and why would a pilot fly for 7 hours first? he wouldn't, he would just crash the plane. For all we know the staff could have given their lives trying to save passengers. It's unseemly to suggest otherwise at this point.
 

TWCobra

Senior Member.
The two arcs are based on measuring the time between the communications between the INMARSAT and the Satcom system on the aircraft.

So all they give is a line on which the last communication must have come from.

Here is a representation here from PPRUNE.

I think the aircraft has flown south as flying north would once again expose it to tracking by military radars. So far there is no indication of that.
 

TWCobra

Senior Member.
Just for the record, theres a big difference between suicide and murdering children. and why would a pilot fly for 7 hours first? he wouldn't, he would just crash the plane. For all we know the staff could have given their lives trying to save passengers. It's unseemly to suggest otherwise at this point.

Both the Egyptair and Silk Air suicides occurred before Sept 11. This meant that it was not possible to lock out people who knew how to open the flight deck door (crew) and therefore meant that the opportunity to crash the aircraft had to be taken quickly.

I won't go into the details here but that situation has changed. Just a month ago a First Officer on a Ethiopian Airlines flight locked out the captain and diverted to Geneva.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/17/world/europe/ethiopian-airlines-hijacking/

It wasn't possible to stop this person from doing this. As I said before, they are reasons why someone may not want the aircraft found.
 

TWCobra

Senior Member.
Here is the INMARSAT ping arcs. This represents the possible positions of the LAST satellite ping. I find it interesting that the authorities haven't released the positions of the previous pings. A much clearer appreciation of intent could be inferred from those.

INMARSAT.JPG
 

WeedWhacker

Senior Member
One speculation (among many) that leaped out at me was the depressurization scenario, suggested as a possible method to control the passengers and crew. If this happens to be true, it is pretty heinous an act.

Again speculating...as with the Ethiopian Airlines F/O when he barricaded himself alone on the Flight Deck, a similar situation could have occurred here. But, the potential act of running up the cabin altitude, and exhaust the supplemental oxygen sources (passenger O2 generators from the PSU, and the cabin crew POBs) available in the cabin? Chilling thought.

And, there is plenty of O2 that would last one person for many hours, using the Flight Deck supply.
 
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Ross Marsden

Senior Member.
Hmmm These maps pose (to me) a lot more questions than they answer.
1) The locus of possible locations are exactly along the 40° lines (90° is at the satellite's nadir on the Earth's surface). Is there a margin of error, or is it 40° +/- 0.0°?
2) Why is the spacing of these lines linear from the nadir, and not at wider spacing further away from that point?
3) Why is there a gap between Southern Sumatra and Northern Thailand?
4) Why is the northern arc longer than the southern one?
5) Are all points in the red arcs equally likely as being the last contact, or does the probability vary along that locus?
6) Has other data and considerations been used to filter this satellite data?

And, absolutely yes, the locus of the previous pings (and their probability density functions) would be very interesting, and probably very revealing.
 

TWCobra

Senior Member.
One speculation (among many) that leaped out at me was the depressurization scenario, suggested as a possible method to control the passengers and crew. If this happens to be true, it is pretty heinous an act.

I was wondering why the ACARS would be switched off first. To stop Depres maintenance messages being sent? Shows massive premeditation if true.
 

WeedWhacker

Senior Member
I was wondering why the ACARS would be switched off first. To stop Depres maintenance messages being sent? Shows massive premeditation if true.

Possibly as well. There is also that absolutely fascinating fact that Captain Shah had a home simulator set-up (as many hobbyists do, nowadays. I've only recently learned how it is becoming very popular, and reasonably priced...well, "reasonable price" for airline pilots, anyway!).
 
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