Explained: Trump's Claim of Suspicious Early Morning Michigan Bump [It's Detroit]

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Trump Tweeted two graphs today from the NYT data.
Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1329602736053252107%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Ftrump-makes-new-unverified-claim-about-michigan-votes-after-meeting-state-republicans-1548896


The Wisconsin one was already discussed, and is generally agreed to be the Milwaukee City mail-in returns.

2020-11-19_23-04-56.jpg

The 149,772 number seems wrong in the Michigan example. But the 96% figure is correct based on the data. This comes from:
Code:
                    {
                        "eevp": 81,
                        "eevp_source": "edison",
                        "timestamp": "2020-11-04T11:31:48Z",
                        "vote_shares": {
                            "bidenj": 0.47,
                            "trumpd": 0.513
                        },
                        "votes": 4574555
                    },
                    {
                        "eevp": 83,
                        "eevp_source": "edison",
                        "timestamp": "2020-11-04T11:31:53Z",
                        "vote_shares": {
                            "bidenj": 0.485,
                            "trumpd": 0.498
                        },
                        "votes": 4724327
                    },
                    {
                        "eevp": 84,
                        "eevp_source": "edison",
                        "timestamp": "2020-11-04T11:52:08Z",
                        "vote_shares": {
                            "bidenj": 0.485,
                            "trumpd": 0.498
                        },
                        "votes": 4734623
                    },

Now again, all we have in the JSON is a vote total, and two % numbers for Biden and Trump. The actual individual votes have to be calculated from this, and are not exact. But I get 147226 votes, with Biden getting 135290 of them, or 96%

Spreadsheet (attached)
2020-11-19_23-24-43.jpg

It seems again the cause is likely city votes all coming in at once.
2020-11-19_23-29-55.jpg

The per-precinct reports seem to be missing there though. But still
Stright Party: 191152 to 7085
Individual: 233908 to 12654
Totals: 425060 to 19739 (444799)
Pcts: 96% to 4% - exactly the same as the "suspicious" spike.
 

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