EPA goes after Make Sunsets

Lee Zeldin, EPA Administrator, has gone after Make Sunsets over their stunt balloon releases.
Some chemtrail enthusiasts feel validated.


Source: https://x.com/epaleezeldin/status/1912224960803746021


"The United States Environmental Protection Agency ("EPA") is evaluating whether Make Sunsets is subject to the Clean Air Act ("Act") by adversely impacting air quality"

Everyone has been subject to the act as soon as it became law. What the EPA should be addressing is whether Make Sunsets is in violation of the law that they are subject to.
 
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What this is about:
Article:
How our balloons work

We currently use biodegradable latex balloons filled with hydrogen gas and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) to create reflective clouds in the stratosphere. Here's how it works:

Balloon setup:
The amount of hydrogen gas is calculated based on the balloon size, payload weight, and the desired burst altitude. Our goal is to release the reflective cloud above 20 km (66,000 ft) in the stratosphere. A calculator helps ensure precise measurements.

Ascent and release:
After launch, the balloon expands as it rises, due to decreasing air pressure, and eventually bursts. If the payload bursts above 66,000 ft, we issue Cooling Credits. If telemetry does not confirm stratospheric deployment, we re-deploy as needed.

I don't know how they compute the cooling equivalent, given that the science on this is not settled, and their "injection" method is to simply burst a balloon.

Excerpts from IEEE Spectrum:
Article:
Make Sunsets is a tiny start-up headquartered in South Dakota that is using balloons to release small quantities of sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere, in the hope of reflecting some of the Sun's energy away from the earth. Each gram of SO2, says Andrew Song, one of Make Sunsets' founders, offsets the warming from one metric ton of carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels. Not everyone is convinced by Make Sunsets' methods, however—and many researchers and environmentalists worry the startup's unregulated operations are disrupting more responsible research into geoengineering, including a prominent effort at Harvard.

Make Sunsets' name is a reference to the dramatic sunsets that high-altitude SO2 particles can produce, as seen following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. That eruption briefly depressed global temperatures by about 0.2 °C for a year, until the particles slowly returned to Earth.

[...]

"There's a lot of disagreement among folks thinking about solar geoengineering, but most agree that Make Sunsets is a bad idea," says Sikina Jinnah, a professor of environmental studies at the University of California Santa Cruz. Jinnah was also the co-chair of Harvard University's Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEX) advisory committee, one of the first efforts to design a governance framework for an outdoor solar geoengineering experiment.

"A couple of rogue tech bros taking action completely outside the scope of government authority or any public engagement are really embodying the nightmare of what folks think this could be," Jinnah says.

The consensus among most atmospheric scientists is that we have only a very limited understanding of how to inject particles effectively into the upper atmosphere without triggering side effects such as damage to the ozone layer, disrupting weather patterns like monsoons, or causing pollution at ground level. Solar geoengineering could also lock us into having to continue to inject particles essentially forever, in order to avoid the "termination shock" of a sudden temperature rise.
 
A video of one of their balloons bursting shows a conspicuous absence of a reflective cloud.
Screenshot_20250416-093858_Video Player.jpg

( Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ug8tXiEv6d0zoYqxpucEsIh-3wbDMNZL/view )
I'd really like to see the cloud they claim is being seeded by these invisible particles.

The easiest way to comply with EPA regulations would be to not release any SO₂.
 
I did some calculations to show how insignificant the sulfur releases by Make Sunsets are.

Since their first successful launch in February 2023, Make Sunsets has released 128,005 Cooling Credits.* (Source)

1744789223900.png


Each credit is 1 gram of sulfur delivered to the stratosphere, so that's 128kg.

Annual sulfur emissions in the USA amount to about 1.7 million tons (and half a century ago were more like 30 million tonnes a year - they have fallen dramatically!)

1744789365921.png


1.7 million tons per year = 53.9kg of sulfur per second.

Make Sunsets has released 128kg in just over two years.

Which means that every 2.37 seconds the rest of the USA emits as much sulfur as Make Sunsets has released since it began operations.

And, of course, Make Sunsets releases its sulfur in the stratosphere, where there are not many people around to breathe it in. The other sulfur emissions, from industry and transport, mostly occur at ground level where humans are exposed to it.

* The actual amount of sulfur released by Make Sunsets will be somewhat higher than this, as they only count Cooling Credits if the sulfur successfully reaches the stratosphere. Failed launches or crashed balloons don't count, and would or could presumably release sulfur too. But clearly the amounts we are talking about are absolutely tiny in the scheme of things.
 
Article:
Make Sunsets does not employ any scientists. The employees are just Iseman and Song, who met while Iseman worked at a tech incubator and Song worked as an outreach manager at a crowdfunding website. Iseman says if they scale up the company, they'll hire scientists.

[...]

The United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity – a treaty that protects wildlife – has a moratorium on geoengineering that affects living species. But the moratorium is guidance, and non-binding. And "the U.S. is actually not a party" to the treaty, says Daniel Bodansky, a climate legal expert and law professor at Arizona State University.
 
Annual sulfur emissions in the USA amount to about 1.7 million tons (and half a century ago were more like 30 million tonnes a year - they have fallen dramatically!)
And to put that in a broader perspective:
so2.png

dynamically-generated image from: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/so-emissions-by-world-region-in-million-tonnes

IIRC, Tambora (referenced in the twitter thread) was variously 70Mt-150Mt of SO2​, so one or two years' worth of human contributions. (Equivalently, modern human contributions have equalled one Tambora every year or two, if you would rather use the natural as the measuring stick.)
 
A video of one of their balloons bursting shows a conspicuous absence of a reflective cloud.
External Quote:
SO2​ can form sulfate aerosols, which can reflect solar radiation and support the formation of clouds, leading to a cooling effect on the climate. However, sulfur dioxide emissions can also contribute to the greenhouse effect by absorbing and re-emitting infrared radiation, warming the atmosphere.
https://miro-analytical.com/so2-molecule-of-the-month-may/

So I guess you won't expect to see anything as the balloon bursts, in terms of the intended reflective cloud, that's still a couple of steps away.
 
I did some calculations to show how insignificant the sulfur releases by Make Sunsets are.

Since their first successful launch in February 2023, Make Sunsets has released 128,005 Cooling Credits.* (Source)

...

1.7 million tons per year = 53.9kg of sulfur per second.

Make Sunsets has released 128kg in just over two years.

Which means that every 2.37 seconds the rest of the USA emits as much sulfur as Make Sunsets has released since it began operations.

And, of course, Make Sunsets releases its sulfur in the stratosphere, where there are not many people around to breathe it in. The other sulfur emissions, from industry and transport, mostly occur at ground level where humans are exposed to it.

* The actual amount of sulfur released by Make Sunsets will be somewhat higher than this, as they only count Cooling Credits if the sulfur successfully reaches the stratosphere. Failed launches or crashed balloons don't count, and would or could presumably release sulfur too. But clearly the amounts we are talking about are absolutely tiny in the scheme of things.

Yes, the corollary to this practice not having much practical effect is that, despite what the current EPA administrator asserts as the rationale for government action, this company is not notably "polluting the air we breathe."
 
So I guess you won't expect to see anything as the balloon bursts, in terms of the intended reflective cloud, that's still a couple of steps away.
If it "reflects solar radiation", I would expect something. Unless the SO2 has gone liquid and coats the ballon scraps now? @Ann K?
SO2 boils at -10.02 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) under normal pressure.

But I also want to see evidence of the cloud that's supposed to form to presumably obtain the alleged full cooling effect.
 
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If it "reflects solar radiation", I would expect something. Unless the SO2 has gone liquid and coats the ballon scraps now? @Ann K?
SO2 boils at -10.02 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) under normal pressure.

But I also want to evidence of the cloud that's supposed to form to presumably obtain the alleged full cooling effect.
I'd presume their droplets are nucleation sites for water vapour, which would be a far more abundant, and thus we're just viewing them how we would any other cloudy thing, including contrails. In which case, it's not the fact that it's specifically SO2​ that's the problem, a nucleation site is a nucleation site, no matter what it's made of.

However, why should SO2​ condense more easily than water, which is a dependency the above paragraph depends on, and it's something for which I have no supporting data? I do know that water absolutely doesn't want to condense (it almost *can't* condense, thermodynamically, as surface tension makes the tiniest of drops hard to remain together to as the surface it too curved), but I have no idea at all about the sulfuric equivalent. Any physical chemists here?
 
If it "reflects solar radiation", I would expect something. Unless the SO2 has gone liquid and coats the ballon scraps now? @Ann K?
(Disclaimer: not my field.) If there is liquid SO2 when it bursts, that would be a temporary condition. I would expect a small delay until it sublimes, added to whatever delay needed for it to seed and form the clouds. This, of course, causes some cooling ...but the SO2 is a greenhouse gas anyway once it gets to the upper atmosphere, so it's six of one, half a dozen of the other.
 
I'd presume their droplets are nucleation sites for water vapour, which would be a far more abundant
I don't think that's true for that altitude.
Article:
The stratosphere extends from 4 -12 miles (6-20 km) above the Earth's surface to around 31 miles (50 km). This layer holds 19 percent of the atmosphere's gases but very little water vapor.

In this region, the temperature increases with height. Heat is produced in the process of the formation of ozone, and this heat is responsible for temperature increases, from an average -60°F (-51°C) at tropopause to a maximum of about 5°F (-15°C) at the top of the stratosphere.

This increase in temperature with height means warmer air is located above cooler air. This prevents convection as there is no upward vertical movement of the gases. As such, the location of the bottom of this layer is readily seen by the anvil-shaped tops of cumulonimbus clouds

lower layers of the atmosphere.jpg

Weather mostly occurs in the troposphere, and clouds at higher altitudes are formed from ice and very rare.
The volcanic SO2 was carried by convection and wouldn't reach that high. And the removal of SO2 from the atmosphere requires some water chemistry to make the molecules larger, so who knows how long the 20km-injected SO2 stays up. (If it doesn't fall down immediately.)
Article:
As is indicated in the above table different types of cloud are formed in different atmospheric conditions – temperature – humidity – dynamics – stability. From a microphysical point of view, clouds may be liquid, mixed phase, or ice and different microphysical processes are involved in each case.


From Source: https://www.npr.org/2024/04/21/1244357506/earth-day-solar-geoengineering-climate-make-sunsets-stardust
:
img_8515-1--df020d00b180bcaf79ddae25230c7032b41343f4.webp

First, that balloon goes higher than any volcano's SO2. And 1.5kg in a weather balloon may, gas law permitting, simply form a layer of ice inside the balloon because the partial pressure of it inside the balloon is so high; it's concentrated, not dispersed. So the question is, what happens to that ice (if there is SO2 ice) when the balloon bursts?
 
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Article:
Effects of Different Stratospheric SO2 Injection Altitudes on Stratospheric Chemistry and Dynamics (2018)

Two different scenarios are explored that produce approximately the same global cooling of 2°C over the period 2042–2049, a high-altitude injection case using 24 Tg SO2/year at 30 hPa (≈25-km altitude) and a low-altitude injection case using 32 Tg SO2/year injections at 70 hPa (between 19- and 20-km altitude), with annual injections divided equally between 15°N and 15°S. Both cases result in a warming of the lower tropical stratosphere up to 10 and 15°C for the high- and low-altitude injection case and in substantial increases of stratospheric water vapor of up to 2 and 4 ppm, respectively, compared to no geoengineering conditions.

On average both simulations reduce surface temperature by about 2°C.

32Tg = 32×10¹²g = 32 million tons of SO2. This is approximately half of the current worldwide emissions.
 
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