Drones over New Jersey?

He recounts that he initially thought he was filming drones and then via the thermal imaging camera realized that they were aircraft

Apparently, this guy missed the memo from Democratic Bad Boy in post #474 explaining that drones look just like aircraft. So, still drones ;) .

External Quote:

This drone prototype is built like smaller model versions of airliners, but they are not airplanes.
Source: https://x.com/foundingideals/status/1868744823534239837

EDIT: I think this is great with the thermal imagining. Be interesting to see what comes of it.
 
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This popped up in my FaceBook feed today:
not drone fb.JPG


Relevant transcript (emphasis added):
External Quote:

0:01:54] IP: Yeah. Unfortunately, we're not done with this thing yet. That's true. Okay, so here's
as best I can understand it, what has happened so far. We're of course referring to the drones.
More specifically, the mass hysteria that has gripped much of New Jersey with regard to what
many, many people are claiming are drones. Drones is any aircraft, apparently, that you cannot
identify because you're not on, or something. It's unclear to me how they're these distinctions
are being made. But here's what's happened as far as I understand it so far. In mid-November,
there were reports and what seemed to be legitimate reports of unknown small drones over the
Picatinny Arsenal in New Jersey.
Those reports are being investigated by the military, which certainly takes seriously the
incursion over its facilities. It's being investigated by a variety of three-letter agencies in the US.
Now, it's apparently being investigated by every single person who has decided to look up into
the sky. That seems to be where this all started, as far as an actual thing to kick off a conspiracy
theory. From there, everyone, it seems, on the East Coast and especially in New Jersey, looked
up for the first time at night and saw lights in the sky. Instead of thinking, oh, I live next to
Newark International Airport, one of the busiest international airports on the Eastern Seaboard.
Maybe those are airplanes. People have decided that those are drones.
This is expanded to be anything that happens mostly at night. These things only fly at night
apparently, and they all have navigation lights. so people have taken to claiming that these are
drones, these are unidentified aircraft. Certainly, they are unidentified, if you personally are
unable to identify them. for the most part, they are easily identifiable as human manufactured
and operated aircraft. Lots of the videos that I've seen have made these aircraft easily
identifiable, not even pulling out flightradar24, just looking at the airplane and going, that looks
like an American Airlines 737. That looks like a French BA350.
When you add the ability to track aircraft via flightradar24 into the mix, it becomes even easier
to see that people are discovering that they apparently live under approach and departure paths
from major international airports.
[0:04:56] JR: Not just major international airports. There is also in Central Jersey, if that is
actually a thing, Maguire Air Force Base, a pretty large Air Force Base, and not all of those
aircraft rightfully so transmit ADSB, and they are not trackable for obvious reasons. Yeah, there
probably are untrackable aircraft flying low over New Jersey, because that happens all the time.
That's not anything new. It's just the mass hysteria that has been stoked, not just by people in
New Jersey looking up, which is a fun sentence to say, but also, up into the ranks of
government, where you have politicians from Pennsylvania, seeing a very clearly fake Star
Wars prop on the back of a flatbed truck driving and he's going, oh, that must be one of those
drones that got downed. then you have what was the governor of Pennsylvania pointing his
phone up to the sky.
[0:05:54] IP: I believe, it was Larry Hogan, former governor of Maryland.
[0:05:57] JR: Oh, that's right. I'm sorry.
[0:05:59] IP: That discovered Orion's belt. My apologies to Josh Shapiro. That didn't sound
right, but I got the wrong governor. But the governor of Maryland looking up at the sky saying,
"Drones," when it was literally stars in the sky. Proven to be stars in the sky. We have gotten to
this point of mass hysteria that I think is the pinpoint moment of peak stupidity of at least the US
population, that government officials state top government officials are looking up, panicking at
the literal stars in the sky. That's how bad this is.
[0:06:35] IP: Speaking of government officials, all of the statements that we've – the official
statements that we've got, as in here's a statement from the FBI and from the military, they say,
"We haven't found anything that would indicate that any of this is a systematic operation of
unidentified aircraft." All of these statements point to the fact that all of the reports that they've
received so far have been found out to be human powered, human operated aircraft stuffed with
humans, hundreds of them as well.
[0:07:11] IP: Because here comes the FedEx and UPS pilots banding together to say, "Please,
stop shining lasers at us. We are carrying your Christmas presents and do not want to crash
into your neighborhood."
[0:07:22] JR: Yes, that would be helpful.
To that point, the FAA at the exact moment we started
recording this podcast today, actually, put out some laser incident data that year over year from
December 2023 over to December 2024, which is not over, it is only December 18th, reports
specifically of aircraft getting lasered in New Jersey is up 269% over the same year. December
2023 reported 16 incidents for the entire month. So far in December 2024 through December
16th, there have been 59 incidents of morons going outside, pointing lasers at aircraft that could
range anywhere from nothing bad happens to blinding the pilots operating the flight leading to
some incident, which seems like it's only a matter of time at this point.

It is to anyone who says this is just harmless activity, people being stupid, nothing bad is going
to happen, something bad will eventually happen if this hysteria keeps up. I mean, there are
other government officials saying, "If I see this over my lane, I'm going to shoot it down." Well, at
some point that NOTAM that's in Haiti, that you don't want to fly too low, because people are
shooting at airplanes. Well, that's going to become New Jersey. Man, that's going to make it
hard for United to operate a hub.
[0:08:45] IP: Yeah. I mean, let's widen our scope here and talk a little bit about what people are
seeing in the sky and how you can – and this might be a little remedial for our audience. In case
you're listening to the podcast for the first time, or you just think to yourself, "Okay, maybe this
will be helpful. I can share it with someone who," if you're the avgeek in your group of friends, I
assume that people have been asking you what you think is happening. Let's talk about what
people are saying.
Aircraft on approach often are visible, because they have turned their lights on, are more visible
because they have turned additional lights on, which is often, I think, what we're seeing with
these videos is where aircraft are turning on their landing lights and people go, "Oh, that must
be one of the drones." You'll also notice that aircraft are blinking with anti-collision beacons and
navigation lights. If it has navigation lights, it's fairly safe to assume that it's an aircraft that does
not want to crash into things.

[0:09:51] JR: Yes. Drones flying over areas for espionage, or spying reasons probably aren't
turning all of their anti-collision and landing lights on and all sorts of other lights.
They usually
don't have people looking out the windows either.
[0:10:04] IP: There's that.
[0:10:06] JR: If you're running an espionage drone mission, you're probably not going to turn
the lights on.

[0:10:09] IP: Exactly. Also, as far as identifying where aircraft are and identifying the specific
aircraft, if you're hearing aircraft, you are behind where the aircraft actually is, if you're hearing
it, because light travels faster than sound. If you hear where the aircraft is, look in front of that,
because that's where you're going to see the aircraft. I think that gets a lot of people in trouble,
especially at night, where they're saying, "I hear it, but I can't see anything," because you're
probably looking in the wrong spot. Be aware of that.
Two, human depth perception, especially at night, is terrible. It is terrible. People often perceive
things, especially aircraft, as closer to them than they actually are. One of the things that folks
have done when they're trying to use flightradar24, or whatever, if you're using another service
and listening to this podcast, fine, I guess. But zoom out, because the aircraft could be further
away, or higher than you think.
Those are just some of the tips that I've been giving far too often
this week. I really hope that we can be done with this before, like Jason said, before something
happens, before something bad happens, before somebody takes this too far.
[0:11:41] JR: Yeah. I do have a theory of why this has been so disproportionately reported for
New Jersey and to a lesser extent, New York. No, we're not elitist here. We know what airplanes
are, but I do have a feeling that in New York, Air Traffic Control has a tendency to bring aircraft
to a lower and slower altitude far sooner before they arrive at the airport than other major metro
areas, just because of the traffic conditions here, how congested the airspace is. It may not be
something people are used to elsewhere to see a 787 at 3,000 feet nowhere near the actual
airport, but that's actually quite common here.
The approach path for all three of our airports, depending on where you're coming from,
Newark, LaGuardia, and JFK, all of those routes have a tendency to go over New Jersey pretty
close to each other. It's not surprising that there are a lot of aircraft flying low and slow at night
when air traffic increases into over New Jersey, because that's just how it works around here.
[0:12:44] IP: I thought we were going to try and find a way to blame this on the FAA moving the
trade responsibility to Philadelphia.
[0:12:50] JR: If New Jersey can blame Philly for something, that's always a good scapegoat.
Maybe let's just go with that.
[0:12:56] IP: There you go. Hopefully, we're not back with any additional stories on this, but we'll
keep you posted. I fear that this might not be the last we hear of the drones.
Source: https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/AvTalk_299_Transcript.pdf
 
A New Jersey Skywatch Task Force has been set up by some people. At least one member is using a thermal image camera.

Chris Neff, who is a member of the Skywatch team, and lives in Mendham, NJ appeared on CNN.
Hey this is cool. Sounds like he's doing everything he should (logging the DTL's etc), and his results seem to be bring some common sense to the discussion (at least for this panel). I hope they stay rigorous, it could become a great example of citizen science.

And if we get some good optical images with corresponding thermal, it might be a good way to demonstrate how silly this all was in a tiktokable format.
 
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The Skywatch Task Force was set up by Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner along with residents.

Message from the Mayor - Drones
Release Date: December 19, 2024
Dear Mendham Borough Residents,


Last week we convened a last minute briefing on the drone situation that has been over our skies for over a month. Since that time I have attended a State briefing for Mayors at the State Police HQ in Ewing, and participated on a conference call for New Jersey Mayors arranged by the White House with speakers from various security agencies.

You are seeing on the news the same thing that they have told us. To clarify we have been told that we have nothing to worry about, yet they are not certain if these drones could be carrying payload. We have also been told that they are not federal or state government drones, but they believe they are hobbyist, commercial, and police drones.

Since we are all watching the skies and taking pictures, we decided to form the Skywatch Task Force and organize our own efforts. Our goal is to get a clear picture or video of what many in our town believe to be drones the size of a vehicle.

I have brought together a group of volunteer residents that each offer unique expertise in helping us with this goal. Should we capture a picture of something that is more than a small drone, we will share this with the NJ State Police. We have arranged to gather tonight to do a Skywatch stakeout at Borough Park Field at 5:30pm. If you are able to assist and watch the sky from your home and believe you see a drone, it would be greatly appreciated if you would take a video or pictures.

We realize that some of these sightings could be that of planes or a star, which is why we will be assisted by some pilots who will help us determine what we capture.


We thank you in advance for your assistance

Christine Serrano Glassner
Mayor


They have a sightings form on the website.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSflnjsyQqjUSuMpxoNQiTyVwG57u6pC9uzQ4a3PUxfZwvdEIw/viewform

https://www.mendhamnj.org/cn/news/index.cfm?NID=57398

https://www.mendhamnj.org/
 
Which of course would necessitate the observer being able to properly discern how far away the object actually is. I saw a woman on Steven Cambian's show recently claim that UAPs were flying directly over her house and that FlightRadar24 didn't show anything above her house at the time. Then she showed the videos which of course showed the objects (with FAA-compliant flashing lights) far off in the distance.
I had a discussion with her on twitter and she refused to believe there were any planes nearby during the 7:15-7:20PM EST Dec 9, 2024 time window she said she was looking at the sky and filming. I tried to show her that there almost certainly were. She would only say she was in Camden County, nothing more precise, but from skimming through the air traffic over that county during that time window, I honestly don't think it's possible for her to have looked at a large portion of the sky there and to have seen no planes for a full 5 minutes. It was not a particularly cloudy night. Few/scattered clouds according to METAR. And the video shows much of the sky clear.

METAR KPHL 092254Z 25006KT 10SM FEW010 FEW070 SCT110 09/07 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP129 T00890067=


Source: https://x.com/kyle_ferriter/status/1869246033043292354
 
Hank Green (brother of John Green) has a very large platform and put out a good video about the misinformation and unsubstantiated rumor circulation aspects of this whole thing. I was glad to see someone with his size and type of general public following do a good video on it.

Caption:
I was shocked how different my perception of the story was from what the actual story was. Honestly, I was not paying much attention to this before I started making this video, so maybe that's part of the problem, but when I started looking into it and realized that there were literally zero confirmed sightings of anything weird, I was pretty disappointed in how we've handled the whole thing!


Source: https://youtu.be/-NI6lxgHaN8


Hank's video has 854K views at the time of this comment. And the next video Youtube recommends to me is an episode of David Spade and Dana Carvey's podcast where they host Steven Greer to give his theories on the "drones". Posted the same day (Dec 20). And that one has 1.3M views. And the next video about the drones that Youtube recommends after that is a 1.2M view episode of Mike Rowe's podcast where he and his cohost Chuck Klausmeyer ridicule the idea of mistaken identities, and speculate on how the government is lying and maybe testing new technology to intentionally scare people into subservience, and echo unsubstantiated rumors like that the "drones" evade police when approached.

You win some you lose some.
 
From her posts on Twitter it looks like Somerdale is a good bet.
Yeah I centered the circles in my first post on the Wawa in Somerdale. I usually use a USPS or town hall or whatever else in a central location as a starting point address when lacking something more specific to the situation.

GfDkxK6WoAAAtRP.jpg
 
This was a good example of how people can confidently identify planes as mystery craft at a much lower altitude.

The woman posting on Facebook here said she has been around planes all her life, always looking up, etc etc, yet estimates the altitude as 200 to 400 feet. The aircraft in question were actually in formation between 4,500 and 5,500 feet. So she was out by a factor of at least 10, even if you took the high end of her estimate.

To give her credit she did agree that the ID of the planes was correct, once shown the screenshot.


1735045143684.jpeg
 
The local flap ends when the NJ residents stop flapping, the UFO fans who have been riled up by this flap well that may take a lot longer..
The ufo youtubers are indeed not done with it yet. There is still a lot of stuff to be squeezed out of it for new content for new videos you know!
 
The ufo youtubers are indeed not done with it yet. There is still a lot of stuff to be squeezed out of it for new content for new videos you know!

Obviously, those UFOlogist that look to monetize UFO/UAPs will get all they can out of this current flap, as you point out. And I would assume they'll lean heavily into the "cover-up" and the "government is lying and hiding things from us" angles as that goes along with the standard UFO/UAP narrative.

However, I would think at some point they need to be a bit careful, as claiming all of these drone sightings are in effect true, that is, drones and not conventual manned aircraft, still means all these thousands of lights being reported are NOT UFOs. They're known conventual unmanned aircraft. Regardless of the nefarious cause or the actual amount of real drones vs manned aircraft, none of them are aliens. They have to be a bit careful claiming all these lights in the sky can in fact be identified as terrestrial aircraft, even if the wrong terrestrial aircraft.

Having said that, I wouldn't harbor any illusions that they'd have any trouble just pivoting back to UFOs when the time comes. Nor will their erstwhile followers likely notice any semblance of duplicity or hypocrisy in claiming that lights in the sky are aliens, no wait they're drones, no back to aliens.
 
Obviously, those UFOlogist that look to monetize UFO/UAPs will get all they can out of this current flap, as you point out. And I would assume they'll lean heavily into the "cover-up" and the "government is lying and hiding things from us" angles as that goes along with the standard UFO/UAP narrative.

However, I would think at some point they need to be a bit careful, as claiming all of these drone sightings are in effect true, that is, drones and not conventual manned aircraft, still means all these thousands of lights being reported are NOT UFOs. They're known conventual unmanned aircraft. Regardless of the nefarious cause or the actual amount of real drones vs manned aircraft, none of them are aliens. They have to be a bit careful claiming all these lights in the sky can in fact be identified as terrestrial aircraft, even if the wrong terrestrial aircraft.

Having said that, I wouldn't harbor any illusions that they'd have any trouble just pivoting back to UFOs when the time comes. Nor will their erstwhile followers likely notice any semblance of duplicity or hypocrisy in claiming that lights in the sky are aliens, no wait they're drones, no back to aliens.
In my experience browsing r/UFOs, they have little difficulty navigating the logic gap from "drones" to "aliens".
For example, this post from 3 weeks ago titled Pentagon: No evidence it's any foreign entity. It's not Iran. It's not our own tech. Which leaves…?

With a highly upvoted comment such as
External Quote:

The Pentagon: "These are not US military drones".

The Pentagon: "These are not drones coming from a foreign entity or adversary"

Ok then.

Aliens it is.
The more this whole thing dies down the easier it will be to attribute it to mysterious aliens which can have any justification for any action or non-action that they do because their goals are obviously beyond our understanding.

They don't think it's possible the whole thing was a storm of miscommunication, misidentification and misinformation. So, unless some foreign adversary declares war on the US by claiming responsibility or the US reveals their secret fleet of SUV sized drones, then the "drones" from NJ will simply be alien drones by this time next year.
 
They don't think it's possible the whole thing was a storm of miscommunication, misidentification and misinformation. So, unless some foreign adversary declares war on the US by claiming responsibility or the US reveals their secret fleet of SUV sized drones, then the "drones" from NJ will simply be alien drones by this time next year.
Mutters in conspiracy theory: "You'll be an alien drone by this time next year."
 
They don't think it's possible the whole thing was a storm of miscommunication, misidentification and misinformation. So, unless some foreign adversary declares war on the US by claiming responsibility or the US reveals their secret fleet of SUV sized drones, then the "drones" from NJ will simply be alien drones by this time next year.

It will be interesting to see how the believers rationalise the continuing presence of the exact same "mysterious lights" over NJ in a few months' (or years') time. Will they just stop looking? Will they pivot to "Well yes, these ones are clearly planes but the ones we saw last year were totally different"?
 
I decided to check the status of the Wikipedia page on this and have to say I'm pretty happy with the current status. There is now an infobox that includes the explanation as "misidentification" and the second paragraph of the lede sums it up pretty well.

External Quote:
The reported sightings were largely the result of misidentification of celestial bodies, manned aircraft, and other routine aerial objects, including hobbyist and commercial drones. Some overflights of sensitive military areas remain unresolved, though experts like Jamey Jacob have indicated they were probably "careless actors" and the Pentagon stated that drone flyovers are "not unusual" and are generally not nefarious. Commentators also attributed the sightings to widespread confirmation bias and social panic. A joint investigation by civilian and military agencies of the U.S. government failed to find "anything anomalous" and said that sightings include mistaken aircraft and other objects. State and local law enforcement as well as numerous independent experts reported similar conclusions.
I think chances are good that the better part of mainstream media will come to their senses soon.
 
FOIA release on BlackVault linked from usual Reddit thread.

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/1hwpkl1/new_documents_highlight_drone_sightings_near/

https://www.theblackvault.com/docum...ight-drone-sightings-near-nuclear-facilities/

This gives some insight into the UAS / drone sightings that weren't (for the most part) planes etc. as identified by trained observers over nuclear plants. The document doesn't cover the later 2024 reported sightings, so I don't know how if there was a genuine uptick in confirmed sightings.

UAS ranged from 2 to 10 feet in size, with various light combos of red, red and white, red and green, green, and the occasional spotlight on larger drones. Some had no lights. All travelled in a manner consistent with commercially available drones, often in packs with varied flight paths. One drone got lodged in a tree and was confirmed as a Ranger EXO.
 
FOIA release on BlackVault linked from usual Reddit thread.

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/1hwpkl1/new_documents_highlight_drone_sightings_near/

https://www.theblackvault.com/docum...ight-drone-sightings-near-nuclear-facilities/

This gives some insight into the UAS / drone sightings that weren't (for the most part) planes etc. as identified by trained observers over nuclear plants. The document doesn't cover the later 2024 reported sightings, so I don't know how if there was a genuine uptick in confirmed sightings.

UAS ranged from 2 to 10 feet in size, with various light combos of red, red and white, red and green, green, and the occasional spotlight on larger drones. Some had no lights. All travelled in a manner consistent with commercially available drones, often in packs with varied flight paths. One drone got lodged in a tree and was confirmed as a Ranger EXO.

What "trained observers" are there at nuclear plants? Who are they employed by and what is their training?
 
This analysis is wrong because I fell victim to the classic daylight-saving time conversion error. I should have been looking at 10:28AM rather than 11:28

There's not a lot of info to go around, but I do wonder if something can be deduced from the sighting that provides a time.

1736375322663.png

The sighting happened the 12th of March 2024, around 5:28CDT over Clinton Power Station, which is here

The object would have been travelling North, and it had both green and red lights. So if it were a plane, it would need to be to the west of the site so that the green light is visible (while the red light could be an anti-collision light on the belly of the plane).

Checking ADS-B Exchange, there was a plane travelling North to the West of the base at that time and date.
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?replay=2024-03-12-11:28&lat=40.257&lon=-88.808&zoom=11.4
1736375689350.png


Downloading the flightpath and checking on google earth, here's how the trajectory would have looked from below (from 5:28AM to 5:30AM given the time and duration given).
1736375903248.png

1736375874147.png


It could have been a drone, but given how often planes have been mistaken as drone for the past month, it could also have been this plane travelling from New Orleans to Chicago.

Edit: I will add, the plane would have been at 26k feet, so it's not exactly a perfect match, just a possible one
 
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I do wonder how drone overflights are supposed to be more than a nuisance to nuclear power plant security, since there's apparently not much an adversary can see that's not already on Google Maps or available from other aerial imagery, and the facilities themselve are designed to resist (most) calamities. (I'm more worried about poor maintenance and management practices of the sort that lead to the shutdown of San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station.)

I see the Nuclear Regulatory Commission published a report on the issue in 2020 as part of the initiative that lead to these records being kept: https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/fs-drone-pwr-plant-security.html

As the frequency of drone sightings at nuclear power plants increased, the NRC initiated a technical analysis with Sandia National Laboratory to gauge the extent of the threat drones pose. That assessment is classified, but an unclassified executive summary was released in October 2019 (ML19302E409).

The technical analysis concluded that U.S. nuclear power plants do not have any risk-significant vulnerabilities that could by exploited by adversaries using commercially available drones to result in radiological sabotage, theft or diversion of special nuclear material (essentially the reactor fuel). In addition, the study concluded that any information an adversary could glean from overhead surveillance using drones is already accounted for in the NRC's design-basis threat, which assumes adversaries have insider information about the plant and its operations.
 
This analysis is wrong because I fell victim to the classic daylight-saving time conversion error. I should have been looking at 10:28AM rather than 11:28

Just realized my previous analysis was using CST time, rather than CDT time. So I checked again but this time for 10:28AM UTC which is the correct time and I found this plane instead.
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?replay=2024-03-12-10:28&lat=40.304&lon=-88.735&zoom=10.3

1736381012875.png



1736381313756.png

It's much closer and much lower (around 5k feet) but the time would be off by a few minutes

This is from 5:26 to 5:28
1736381176611.png

And this is from 5:23 to 5:25
1736381254839.png


A plane at that altitude does match more with what people have been confusing with drones lately, but the time would be off by 5 minutes at most (I'm not sure how the time of sighting is taken for these reports)
 
There's not a lot of info to go around, but I do wonder if something can be deduced from the sighting that provides a time.

View attachment 75613
The sighting happened the 12th of March 2024, around 5:28CDT over Clinton Power Station, which is here

The object would have been travelling North, and it had both green and red lights. So if it were a plane, it would need to be to the west of the site so that the green light is visible (while the red light could be an anti-collision light on the belly of the plane).

Checking ADS-B Exchange, there was a plane travelling North to the West of the base at that time and date.
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?replay=2024-03-12-11:28&lat=40.257&lon=-88.808&zoom=11.4
View attachment 75615

Downloading the flightpath and checking on google earth, here's how the trajectory would have looked from below (from 5:28AM to 5:30AM given the time and duration given).
View attachment 75617
View attachment 75616

It could have been a drone, but given how often planes have been mistaken as drone for the past month, it could also have been this plane travelling from New Orleans to Chicago.

Edit: I will add, the plane would have been at 26k feet, so it's not exactly a perfect match, just a possible one
Keep in mind, GA aircraft, with some exceptions, are usually not equipped with transponders. Been too long since I had to deal with those caveats to remember specifics, but included higher altitude flights and different airspace classes.

The point being, just because there is no flight tracker data to show an a/c at a location at a particular time doesn't mean it isn't/wasn't there. I see GA a/c (helicopter flight school/GA airport less than 10 miles away) fly over frequently, but not show on FR24, FlightAware, ADS-B Exchange,etc. If a commercial jet airliner can be mistaken for a drone, a (non-squawking) relatively low altitude GA Cessna or Beech could just as easily.
 
Mixing up my terms with the USAF base reports, but in any case more methodical than 'Joe' from NJ and his 30sec of "WTF is that thing!"

Just a heads up as you are a newer member, the term "trained observer" will be heavily questioned any time it comes up, especially in relation to things the observers being mentioned are usually NOT trained to observe whatever it is they are supposedly observing.

Case in point, the security personal at various nuclear sites. It's very unlikely they have any special training in observing aircraft, or more importantly drones. They are trained, if at all, to patrol the site and maintain security. I would assume they might be trained to understand the surveillance systems and other security systems around the facility. That is, they may be trained in very specific things that are pertinent to their daily activities, not some sort of generalized "observer training".

Way back in the early '90s, my lovely wife worked in banking and handled cash. She did receive special training on how to "observe" cash. She was a "trained observer" when it came to cash and how to spot counterfeit cash. It doesn't make her good at spotting drones.

The "trained observer" claim is a bit of a trope that gets thrown around, often in the UFO world, to mean certain people, police officers, pilots or security personal are somehow "trained" to "observe" things, and therefore they can't be mistaken or wrong in their observations. As such, it's considered a bit of a loaded term around here.
 
This popped up in my FaceBook feed today:
View attachment 75177

Relevant transcript (emphasis added):
External Quote:

0:01:54] IP: Yeah. Unfortunately, we're not done with this thing yet. That's true. Okay, so here's
as best I can understand it, what has happened so far. We're of course referring to the drones.
More specifically, the mass hysteria that has gripped much of New Jersey with regard to what
many, many people are claiming are drones. Drones is any aircraft, apparently, that you cannot
identify because you're not on, or something. It's unclear to me how they're these distinctions
are being made. But here's what's happened as far as I understand it so far. In mid-November,
there were reports and what seemed to be legitimate reports of unknown small drones over the
Picatinny Arsenal in New Jersey.
Those reports are being investigated by the military, which certainly takes seriously the
incursion over its facilities. It's being investigated by a variety of three-letter agencies in the US.
Now, it's apparently being investigated by every single person who has decided to look up into
the sky. That seems to be where this all started, as far as an actual thing to kick off a conspiracy
theory. From there, everyone, it seems, on the East Coast and especially in New Jersey, looked
up for the first time at night and saw lights in the sky. Instead of thinking, oh, I live next to
Newark International Airport, one of the busiest international airports on the Eastern Seaboard.
Maybe those are airplanes. People have decided that those are drones.
This is expanded to be anything that happens mostly at night. These things only fly at night
apparently, and they all have navigation lights. so people have taken to claiming that these are
drones, these are unidentified aircraft. Certainly, they are unidentified, if you personally are
unable to identify them. for the most part, they are easily identifiable as human manufactured
and operated aircraft. Lots of the videos that I've seen have made these aircraft easily
identifiable, not even pulling out flightradar24, just looking at the airplane and going, that looks
like an American Airlines 737. That looks like a French BA350.
When you add the ability to track aircraft via flightradar24 into the mix, it becomes even easier
to see that people are discovering that they apparently live under approach and departure paths
from major international airports.
[0:04:56] JR: Not just major international airports. There is also in Central Jersey, if that is
actually a thing, Maguire Air Force Base, a pretty large Air Force Base, and not all of those
aircraft rightfully so transmit ADSB, and they are not trackable for obvious reasons. Yeah, there
probably are untrackable aircraft flying low over New Jersey, because that happens all the time.
That's not anything new. It's just the mass hysteria that has been stoked, not just by people in
New Jersey looking up, which is a fun sentence to say, but also, up into the ranks of
government, where you have politicians from Pennsylvania, seeing a very clearly fake Star
Wars prop on the back of a flatbed truck driving and he's going, oh, that must be one of those
drones that got downed. then you have what was the governor of Pennsylvania pointing his
phone up to the sky.
[0:05:54] IP: I believe, it was Larry Hogan, former governor of Maryland.
[0:05:57] JR: Oh, that's right. I'm sorry.
[0:05:59] IP: That discovered Orion's belt. My apologies to Josh Shapiro. That didn't sound
right, but I got the wrong governor. But the governor of Maryland looking up at the sky saying,
"Drones," when it was literally stars in the sky. Proven to be stars in the sky. We have gotten to
this point of mass hysteria that I think is the pinpoint moment of peak stupidity of at least the US
population, that government officials state top government officials are looking up, panicking at
the literal stars in the sky. That's how bad this is.
[0:06:35] IP: Speaking of government officials, all of the statements that we've – the official
statements that we've got, as in here's a statement from the FBI and from the military, they say,
"We haven't found anything that would indicate that any of this is a systematic operation of
unidentified aircraft." All of these statements point to the fact that all of the reports that they've
received so far have been found out to be human powered, human operated aircraft stuffed with
humans, hundreds of them as well.
[0:07:11] IP: Because here comes the FedEx and UPS pilots banding together to say, "Please,
stop shining lasers at us. We are carrying your Christmas presents and do not want to crash
into your neighborhood."
[0:07:22] JR: Yes, that would be helpful.
To that point, the FAA at the exact moment we started
recording this podcast today, actually, put out some laser incident data that year over year from
December 2023 over to December 2024, which is not over, it is only December 18th, reports
specifically of aircraft getting lasered in New Jersey is up 269% over the same year. December
2023 reported 16 incidents for the entire month. So far in December 2024 through December
16th, there have been 59 incidents of morons going outside, pointing lasers at aircraft that could
range anywhere from nothing bad happens to blinding the pilots operating the flight leading to
some incident, which seems like it's only a matter of time at this point.

It is to anyone who says this is just harmless activity, people being stupid, nothing bad is going
to happen, something bad will eventually happen if this hysteria keeps up. I mean, there are
other government officials saying, "If I see this over my lane, I'm going to shoot it down." Well, at
some point that NOTAM that's in Haiti, that you don't want to fly too low, because people are
shooting at airplanes. Well, that's going to become New Jersey. Man, that's going to make it
hard for United to operate a hub.
[0:08:45] IP: Yeah. I mean, let's widen our scope here and talk a little bit about what people are
seeing in the sky and how you can – and this might be a little remedial for our audience. In case
you're listening to the podcast for the first time, or you just think to yourself, "Okay, maybe this
will be helpful. I can share it with someone who," if you're the avgeek in your group of friends, I
assume that people have been asking you what you think is happening. Let's talk about what
people are saying.
Aircraft on approach often are visible, because they have turned their lights on, are more visible
because they have turned additional lights on, which is often, I think, what we're seeing with
these videos is where aircraft are turning on their landing lights and people go, "Oh, that must
be one of the drones." You'll also notice that aircraft are blinking with anti-collision beacons and
navigation lights. If it has navigation lights, it's fairly safe to assume that it's an aircraft that does
not want to crash into things.

[0:09:51] JR: Yes. Drones flying over areas for espionage, or spying reasons probably aren't
turning all of their anti-collision and landing lights on and all sorts of other lights.
They usually
don't have people looking out the windows either.
[0:10:04] IP: There's that.
[0:10:06] JR: If you're running an espionage drone mission, you're probably not going to turn
the lights on.

[0:10:09] IP: Exactly. Also, as far as identifying where aircraft are and identifying the specific
aircraft, if you're hearing aircraft, you are behind where the aircraft actually is, if you're hearing
it, because light travels faster than sound. If you hear where the aircraft is, look in front of that,
because that's where you're going to see the aircraft. I think that gets a lot of people in trouble,
especially at night, where they're saying, "I hear it, but I can't see anything," because you're
probably looking in the wrong spot. Be aware of that.
Two, human depth perception, especially at night, is terrible. It is terrible. People often perceive
things, especially aircraft, as closer to them than they actually are. One of the things that folks
have done when they're trying to use flightradar24, or whatever, if you're using another service
and listening to this podcast, fine, I guess. But zoom out, because the aircraft could be further
away, or higher than you think.
Those are just some of the tips that I've been giving far too often
this week. I really hope that we can be done with this before, like Jason said, before something
happens, before something bad happens, before somebody takes this too far.
[0:11:41] JR: Yeah. I do have a theory of why this has been so disproportionately reported for
New Jersey and to a lesser extent, New York. No, we're not elitist here. We know what airplanes
are, but I do have a feeling that in New York, Air Traffic Control has a tendency to bring aircraft
to a lower and slower altitude far sooner before they arrive at the airport than other major metro
areas, just because of the traffic conditions here, how congested the airspace is. It may not be
something people are used to elsewhere to see a 787 at 3,000 feet nowhere near the actual
airport, but that's actually quite common here.
The approach path for all three of our airports, depending on where you're coming from,
Newark, LaGuardia, and JFK, all of those routes have a tendency to go over New Jersey pretty
close to each other. It's not surprising that there are a lot of aircraft flying low and slow at night
when air traffic increases into over New Jersey, because that's just how it works around here.
[0:12:44] IP: I thought we were going to try and find a way to blame this on the FAA moving the
trade responsibility to Philadelphia.
[0:12:50] JR: If New Jersey can blame Philly for something, that's always a good scapegoat.
Maybe let's just go with that.
[0:12:56] IP: There you go. Hopefully, we're not back with any additional stories on this, but we'll
keep you posted. I fear that this might not be the last we hear of the drones.
Source: https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/AvTalk_299_Transcript.pdf
Where can I listen/watch the source of this transcript?

edit: spotify link


Source: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4wSoYJMLtuF1vUwQCUKnfY?si=b822bdd86b5443ca
 
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Just a heads up as you are a newer member, the term "trained observer" will be heavily questioned any time it comes up, especially in relation to things the observers being mentioned are usually NOT trained to observe whatever it is they are supposedly observing.

Case in point, the security personal at various nuclear sites. It's very unlikely they have any special training in observing aircraft, or more importantly drones. They are trained, if at all, to patrol the site and maintain security. I would assume they might be trained to understand the surveillance systems and other security systems around the facility. That is, they may be trained in very specific things that are pertinent to their daily activities, not some sort of generalized "observer training".

Way back in the early '90s, my lovely wife worked in banking and handled cash. She did receive special training on how to "observe" cash. She was a "trained observer" when it came to cash and how to spot counterfeit cash. It doesn't make her good at spotting drones.

The "trained observer" claim is a bit of a trope that gets thrown around, often in the UFO world, to mean certain people, police officers, pilots or security personal are somehow "trained" to "observe" things, and therefore they can't be mistaken or wrong in their observations. As such, it's considered a bit of a loaded term around here.
Thanks. My apologies for stepping into a great steaming pile with that faux pas. Googling the term with 'drone' and 'New Jersey' shows it to be a trope in UFO and tabloid press as you said, but, aside from New Jersey case, also a term used in relation to drone training and licensing. Obvs I know that pilots and licensed drone operators (e.g. NJ police) make plenty mistakes as covered on this site.
 
It would be interesting to try to pin down the original sighting that kicked this whole thing off, as reported in the New York Times article

External Quote:

It was a dry and cool Wednesday evening outside the Army's Picatinny Arsenal in New Jersey, a longtime military installation that once made the bombs and shells that led to victory in World War II. A contractor there knocked off work and decided to wait out rush hour traffic. He picked up some takeout from Wawa, parked outside a nearby wildlife preserve and settled in to watch an episode of Joe Rogan's podcast on his phone. Then he saw a flash in the side mirror.

A light rising straight up from the tree line and toward the arsenal. He started recording. Could it have been a plane?

Or was it a drone?

....

Five days after the arsenal sighting, on Nov. 18, multiple drones were reported
Presumably he bought his food from this Wawa store and parked up by one of the wooded areas to the north/west of the Arsenal.

1736247635509.png


Actually I see there is already a thread about this. I wonder if there are any more details of the time and location of the sighting available to the public?
 
Keep in mind, GA aircraft, with some exceptions, are usually not equipped with transponders. Been too long since I had to deal with those caveats to remember specifics, but included higher altitude flights and different airspace classes.
That's no longer true. Since 2020, all aircraft operating in controlled airspace in the ConUS (and 20 nm outside major airports) must have ADS-B out. So unless they're a sheep farmer flying around their ranch, that GA aircraft probably has it.
The point being, just because there is no flight tracker data to show an a/c at a location at a particular time doesn't mean it isn't/wasn't there. I see GA a/c (helicopter flight school/GA airport less than 10 miles away) fly over frequently, but not show on FR24, FlightAware, ADS-B Exchange,etc. If a commercial jet airliner can be mistaken for a drone, a (non-squawking) relatively low altitude GA Cessna or Beech could just as easily.
The main reason a low-flying aircraft (obviously a lot of helicopters) don't show up is that they need line-of-sight to a receiver on the network of that tracking site, and that's often not the case, due to mountains or other obstacles, or simply Earth curvature.

https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/equipadsb/research/airspace has a graphical overview of ADS-B requirements, and a Google Earth overlay that also includes ADS-B coverage as seen by ATC.
 
Since 2020, all aircraft operating in controlled airspace in the ConUS (and 20 nm outside major airports) must have ADS-B out.
Can you clarify whether or to what extent this includes military/government aircraft? I'm assuming GA in the discussion refers to "general aviation," but I want to be sure I understand your point before possibly explaining it to somebody else out there on the Internets... and it had been my understanding, possibly erroneously, that military aircraft might be an exception to this sort of requirement.
 
Can you clarify whether or to what extent this includes military/government aircraft? I'm assuming GA in the discussion refers to "general aviation," but I want to be sure I understand your point before possibly explaining it to somebody else out there on the Internets... and it had been my understanding, possibly erroneously, that military aircraft might be an exception to this sort of requirement.
It depends on jurisdiction, but, yes, the US military are explicitly allowed to opt out of broadcasting:
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-- https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2019-07-18/pdf/2019-15248.pdf
 
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