Actually, Almaz Antey exactly positioned the explosion of the missile in front of the cockpit window of the captain.

Even fastest pellets of missile from Zaroschenskoe cannot hit plane under this angle.

Even if the point of exploding of AA is correct, there is still a big variable which is unproven in the AA point of exploding, the angle (or heading) of the missile. At this moment is assumed the trajectory of the missile is 20 degrees, which is for me still a very big questionmark. This trajectory doesn't match with the basic principle of the radar of the missile and with the functionality of the proximity fuse (although i have to admit, i need more information on that to be sure).

The velocities involved are big, the errormargins so very small. 1/10 of a second difference in timing means a gap of 125 meters between the plane and missile (252 m/s of the plane and 1000 m/s of the missile), even 0,05 of a second already means the difference between 'succes' and 'failure'.

The radar of the missile has a variable angle between 30-60 degrees. The missile will adjust its trajectory depending on the result of this radar, but at the same time always makes sure the new trajectory is never outside the margins of the radar angle of 30-60 degrees. At launch of the missile the width of the angle in km is big, but the closer it gets to its target, the narrower it gets. A launch from Zaroschenskoe will show a curved (in 2D horizontal spectrum) trajectory then a launch from Shizne.

My personal opinion is the trajectory of a missile launched from Zaroschenskoe should be bigger, how much i can't tell (yet).

What i am traying to explain:

there are several variables that needs to be proven (launchlocations and angles) we cannot proof variable 1 with using one of the other variables. We have to do step by step.

1st: the best estimate of the point (both vertical and horizontal) of the moment of exploding.

2nd: the precise functionality of the radar and proximity fuse

Based on those answer, we could draw a conclusion on the possible launchingside.