Libertarian

Banned
Banned
It is sad that the intelligence of the average person is now so low that we must use dumbed down cartoons to communicate with them.

Since the anti vax campaigns where fewer people are being vaccinated there have been several measles outbreaks in the USA. What does THAT lead you to believe?
Post Hoc Ergo Procter Hoc. While you may well be correct, this specific argument is fallacious and can not lead to a valid conclusion.

Dr. Watt obviously knew the number of unvaccinated cases. Thus his ability to claim a "significant" number. In science, "significance" usually means statistical significance. So where the heck are the statistics showing the significance? The lack of such references leads me to believe that in fact specific statistics do not strengthen his case. i.e. that there was also a "significant" number of cases among the "immune herd".
 
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NoParty

Senior Member.
It is sad that the intelligence of the average person is now so low that we must use dumbed down cartoons to communicate with them.

Post Hoc Ergo Procter Hoc. While you may well be correct, this specific argument is fallacious and can not lead to a valid conclusion.
No, if you said "We know that this caused that" you'd be committing Post Hoc.

Asking "What does THAT lead you to believe?" in light of all the other circumstances,
is a perfectly reasonable question. Essentially: "What is most probable, given all we know?"

Also, I have no problem with communicating data to people via cartoons, if that makes them more likely to read it.

To say that the existence of alternative modes of info means that we can determine anything negative about the
"intelligence of the average person" is, of course, grossly fallacious. :p
 
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Efftup

Senior Member.
You don't actually KNOW that he didn't go on to give an entire statistical breakdown. You only Know that the paper didn't print one.
While you and I would both have preferred a complete statistical breakdown, it may be that either Dr Watt or the paper didn't think it would be helpful or obvious to the average reader.
Maybe Dr Watt didn't have all the figures exactly to hand at the time the reporter asked him, or maybe the numbers didn't fit the point he was trying to make.

I have no axe to grind so I will not jump to any conclusions, but I might well start digging to see if there ARE any actual figures to be had anywhere. What I have found so far is not very helpful.
 

Libertarian

Banned
Banned
That is one of the claims I addressed earlier in the thread. Although SV40 has been found to induce cancers in animal models both in vivo and in vitro, a link between human cancers and SV40 has yet to be established and the CDC has not been able to attribute any increase in cancer incidence rates to the contaminated batches of polio vaccine
The CDC is not able to provide an objective assessment. Expecting them to admit to anything would be akin to first warning a six year old that if they stole cookies from the cookie jar that they will be spanked very very hard, and then asking them whether they did. The government, like the six year old, is backed into a corner and will almost invariably issue a denial.

The government is afraid of being spanked. It is therefore not a reliable source of information on SV-40.

There are quite a few solid links between SV-40 and human cancer. Here is an article on a few of them:
Also, the National Library of Medicine confirms that SV-40 causes cancer in human cells:
 
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Trigger Hippie

Senior Member.
I thought pro-vaxers prided themselves on science... So where the heck are the statistics showing the significance?
The science is already in. It's really quite simple: If you don't vaccinate, you run a higher risk of falling ill.
 
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deirdre

Senior Member.
It is sad that the intelligence of the average person is now so low that we must use dumbed down cartoons to communicate with them.

Post Hoc Ergo Procter Hoc. While you may well be correct, this specific argument is fallacious and can not lead to a valid conclusion.

Dr. Watt obviously knew the number of unvaccinated cases. Thus his ability to claim a "significant" number. In science, "significance" usually means statistical significance. So where the heck are the statistics showing the significance? The lack of such references leads me to believe that in fact specific statistics do not strengthen his case. i.e. that there was also a "significant" number of cases among the "immune herd".
i'm sure they will update as more info comes in. we're still missing data on 17 people.

http://emergency.cdc.gov/HAN/han00376.asp

add:
http://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
 
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Trigger Hippie

Senior Member.
More important than the number of cases is the ratio of unvaccinated cases to vaccinated cases

Those numbers are known. As of Jan 21, 2015, 59 California residents contracted measles. 34 have vaccination records. Of the 34 that have vaccination records, 28 were not vaccinated.

http://www.cdph.ca.gov/Pages/NR15-008.aspx

and how that ratio compares to the broader ratio of unvaccinated people relative to vaccinated people attending the park.

Short of forcing people to fill out a questionnaire or present vaccination records before entering the park, how could anyone possibly know the number of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people attending the park? I think you could reasonable assume that attendees represent a cross-section of the population.
 
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Dan Wilson

Senior Member.
The government is afraid of being spanked. It is therefore not a reliable source of information on SV-40.

There are quite a few solid links between SV-40 and human cancer. Here is an article on a few of them:

You can't just say "The government says it therefore it is wrong." The CDC's statements are backed up by science. There is no concrete link between human cancers and SV40 on an epidemiological level. Performing PCR on people and finding SV40 DNA does not mean that it is causing cancer nor that the virus is necessarily active. There are conflicting views in the scientific community in regards to how much SV40 could contribute to certain cancers, but when it comes to the SV40 contaminated polio vaccine batch it does not seem to have caused noticeable changes in cancer trends.

http://www.cancer.gov/newscenter/newsfromnci/2004/sv40
The epidemiological data suggests that the SV40 contamination, which is no longer present, did not cause cancers.

Also, the National Library of Medicine confirms that SV-40 causes cancer in human cells:

It can transform cells in the lab, but the dish is different than the body. Not all people with SV40-associated tumors are infected with SV40. Not all people with SV40 develop tumors. There is a correlation and on a molecular level it is certainly possible, but that does not mean that it is a likely event. It has to infect the right cells, avoid the immune system, and successfully transform a cell without killing it. As far as recent science goes, this particular study demonstrates that certain markers for malignant mesothelioma occurred independent of SV40 in a sample of patients.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25162674
Either way, the SV40 is no longer a contaminant in any vaccine, so there is no reason to worry about it when it comes to vaccination.
 
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Buildy

Member
Can anyone speak to the so called "Vaccine Court"? I keep running into the argument that the "vaccine courts" have paid out over $3B in damages to those adversely affected by vaccines. The only thing I could find outside of conspiracy links was an LA Times article which reported on the court denying the link to Autism. It had a quick excerpt but didn't give much.

Is there any good links/information out there about this?
 

MikeC

Closed Account
Here's the wiki article on it -

the burden of proof does not require scientific "certainty" for any link:

It has awarded a lot of money:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_court#cite_note-NVICP-stats-6
 

Buildy

Member
Ok so a total of 2114 compensated.

I've also been trying to find the number of shots actually given in the history of the US to try to rationalize this. Not an easy number to nail down!
 

Svartbjørn

Senior Member.
Had an Ozzy friend of mine txt this link to me just a short time ago with YAY!!!! Keep in mind she's very anti-government for the most part but she does agree with vaccinations and sees this as a good thing, but doesnt like the fact that the government had to get involved to get it done:

 

Hevach

Senior Member.
Ok so a total of 2114 compensated.

I've also been trying to find the number of shots actually given in the history of the US to try to rationalize this. Not an easy number to nail down!
Influenza alone is typically over 150 million. This year was on the "low" side with 147.8 million doses. That's the biggest group, but new parents, children under 1, children over 1, and the elderly all account for upwards of 10 million each. Even the small groups (emergency rabies and tetanus vaccines) are on the order of millions a year, those are the ones doctors really over prescribe*. The total is well in excess of 200 million doses per year.

*-actual rabies cases in the US are on the order of 2-4 per year, but because the survival rate is nearly zero once symptoms show, chances are simply not taken with the disease.



Every year, about 30,000 VAERS reports are filed, with most being coincidental and not vaccine caused. About 1700 of the 30,000 are considered serious, but most of them are also coincidental (hence why in 20 years the number actual compensated is much lower than the number reported). The most common vaccine related report is pain, swelling, or rash at the injection site, which is a common side effect of many vaccines, but is also a side effect of a poorly delivered saline injection, making it a particularly difficult one to actually pin down cause. Most doctors don't particularly care, but some hospitals and clinics do track this to try and catch nurses being sloppy with needles (it means discomfort with a shot, but the same mistake could mean serious infiltration with an IV and even worse injury with a central line catheter).
 
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derwoodii

Senior Member.
claims big pharma is killing off alternative vax therapist


http://thefreethoughtproject.com/3-alternative-health-doctors-dead-run-ins-feds/

In the past several weeks, a number of controversial natural health doctors have died under mysterious circumstances. Some of them have even had recent encounters with federal agents and bureaucracies.

Two weeks ago, the string of mysterious deaths began when Dr. Jeff Bradstreet MD was found in a river with a gunshot wound to his chest. The police claim that the gunshot wound was self-inflicted and that the death was a suicide, however, Broadstreet’s family suspects foul play.


further claims

http://www.healthnutnews.com/famous...inflicted-gunshot-wound-and-found-in-a-river/

Famous Autism researcher and Doctor, Jeff Bradstreet MD died of alleged “self inflicted gunshot wound” to chest and found in a river

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-autism-therapy-found-dead-family-cries-foul/

James Jeffrey Bradstreet’s life was full of controversy. To thousands of supporters, he was a savior: a physician who claimed vaccines caused autism and promoted radical procedures to treat those afflicted, including his own son.

To many others, however, he was a crackpot: a man who, despite his medical license, ignored science and championed dangerous, discredited and occasionally deadly treatments.

It’s no surprise, therefore, that Bradstreet’s death is proving equally divisive.
 
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derwoodii

Senior Member.
one seem to have died naturally aged 67 other by gun shot suicide after a FDA raid the last murdered by an unknown attacker
 

MikeC

Closed Account
First death due to measles in USA for 12 years.

Person seems to have caught it while in hospital in a weakened state -

 

deirdre

Senior Member.
one seem to have died naturally aged 67 other by gun shot suicide after a FDA raid the last murdered by an unknown attacker
probably should be a seperate thread. lots of CT sites rehashing the same article.

Plus so far i havent found anything yet about Hedendal being anti-vax. or Dr. Sievers. Not really fair to include them in an anti vax thread if they weren't anti vax. their families are going to go through enough hell because of this CT nonsense as it is.

A blog (i wont link at this time) that includes quite a few comments from Dr. Hedendals family members and acquaintences doesnt sound like anyone is thinking 'foul play'.
 

Graham2001

Active Member
In an interesting case of conspiracy bleed, I think I've just found the replacement for Mercury in the Anti-Vaxxers toolkit:

The above quote comes from a speaker at an Australian Anti-Vax conference that was covered by a report from, of all things, the Australian Womans Weekly.

http://www.aww.com.au/latest-news/health/vaccination-debate-at-forum-21125
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member.
In an interesting case of conspiracy bleed, I think I've just found the replacement for Mercury in the Anti-Vaxxers toolkit:


"Frankenstein genetically-modified virus" is such a disappointing way to talk about it. All the genetic modification does is weaken or inactivate the pathogen so that, like all vaccines, you can't actually contract the diseases itself. This way the virus is just a sitting duck for your immune system to come in and process the most immuno-dominant proteins (antigens) and start to build a defense.

http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/getfile?dDocName=STELPRDC5097326
 

Libertarian

Banned
Banned
Every year, about 30,000 VAERS reports are filed, with most being coincidental and not vaccine caused. About 1700 of the 30,000 are considered serious, but most of them are also coincidental (hence why in 20 years the number actual compensated is much lower than the number reported)....
Is there any available evidence that speaks to the number of VAERS reports filed vs the actual number of VAE's? I.E. How many adverse cases are currently estimated to be unreported, and by whom?
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Is there any available evidence that speaks to the number of VAERS reports filed vs the actual number of VAE's? I.E. How many adverse cases are currently estimated to be unreported, and by whom?


this old (1999) but: FDA testimony
the CDC (perhaps you can research the source links and let us know)
from an anti vax site
which sounds plausible to me. i certainly wouldnt report manageable fever or mild soreness etc. But i assume you mean "underreporting of severe side effects" ?

btw, i cant remember... what is the Canadian version of VAERs?
 
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Leifer

Senior Member.
probably should be a seperate thread. lots of CT sites rehashing the same article.

Plus so far i havent found anything yet about Hedendal being anti-vax. or Dr. Sievers. Not really fair to include them in an anti vax thread if they weren't anti vax. their families are going to go through enough hell because of this CT nonsense as it is.

Started one HERE.
 

Pete Tar

Senior Member.
I had a tdap vaccine last week and am still dealing with the symptoms of a really bad flu, much worse than how it usually hits me. I'm told it's unusual to be that affected (assuming it wasn't a coincidence) but on pregnancy forums there's quite a few reports of people being hit hard for a week or so after their pertussis shots, so it's probably more common than officially acknowledged and I imagine it's under-reporting that leads to it being thought of as unusual.
 

Hama Neggs

Senior Member.
Sorry if this is covered, but I just encountered a person who says that the concept of "herd immunity" is a "myth" and I found some links to similar opinions via Google. Not an area of expertise for me. Anybody care to fill me in?
 

Hevach

Senior Member.
This makes no sense at all. Immunity is immunity.
Well, many forms of natural immunity require individuals to become infected at some point to gain immunity, meaning herd immunity is difficult to establish and virtually impossible maintain, because when your immunity rate gets high, the disease recedes and immunity rates drop.

Vaccine herd immunity can be achieved and maintained in the complete absence of the disease.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I suspect they are confusing their terms, and thinking that herd immunity is when people get sick, spread it though the herd, and make them sick, and the survivors are then immune.

When really it's the fact that when most of a herd is immune, then it's very hard for the disease to spread between the small fraction of people who are not immune.
 

Spectrar Ghost

Senior Member.
Herd immunity seems like something that is easy to misunderstand/misconstrue. It's not about making any one unvaccinated person immune, it's about having enough immune people to control transmission. If you block off enough transmission vectors you can contain an outbreak.

Think of it like a road network where police have randomly blocked off intersections. As the number of blocked intersections increases, the chances of you getting to work decrease, even if you can get a few block. At some point that chance of arriving becomes negligible. For herd immunity that's somewhere around 90%.
 

Hama Neggs

Senior Member.
Here's a list of stuff somebody came up with. I haven't reviewed it at all.

 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member.
http://www.vaccinationcouncil.org/2...s-of-mass-vaccination-suzanne-humphries-md-3/
This article is so ill-researched. Earlier in the page they claim that "vaccinators" always talk about how small pox and polio were eradicated by vaccines while polio is certainly not eradicated. Anyway, with what they say about measles, it's completely false. Measles has a history of devastating populations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles#History
The numbers don't lie. Before widespread use of measles vaccines in America, there would be over 200,000 cases in one year. With vaccines, that number went to less than 100 in 2005. Now, with so many people not vaccinating, that number has risen to almost 20,000 in 2014. The idea that "natural immunity is better" does not work. If you simply allow a virus like measles to circulate it will inevitably kill. Sure, those who survive will probably have some good immunity against it, but so will someone who gets vaccinated because the process of building immunity is no different in the two cases. A circulating virus will also never infect an entire population, it will always have new hosts to infect, spread from, and potentially kill. Why obtain some immunity at the expense of children when most of a population can be vaccinated and gain immunity at virtually no expense?
 

skephu

Senior Member.
Well, it's certainly true that many modern vaccines don't provide life-long immunity. For example, older pertussis vaccines contained whole bacterial cells and were very effective, providing (probably) life-long immunity, but they had more side effects and in some cases caused serious and scary adverse reactions. The newer pertussis vaccine only contains a tiny part of the bacterium, and is a lot safer, adverse reactions are very rare, but the immunity provided by it doesn't last very long. So yes, it is true that these vaccinations should in principle be repeated every few years, and if that doesn't happen then herd immunity will not be there. But that doesn't make the principle of herd immunity flawed; in fact it just confirms it.
 

Hama Neggs

Senior Member.
Well, it's certainly true that many modern vaccines don't provide life-long immunity. For example, older pertussis vaccines contained whole bacterial cells and were very effective, providing (probably) life-long immunity, but they had more side effects and in some cases caused serious and scary adverse reactions. The newer pertussis vaccine only contains a tiny part of the bacterium, and is a lot safer, adverse reactions are very rare, but the immunity provided by it doesn't last very long. So yes, it is true that these vaccinations should in principle be repeated every few years, and if that doesn't happen then herd immunity will not be there. But that doesn't make the principle of herd immunity flawed; in fact it just confirms it.
I asked the original guy I was talking to what his reasoning was on the issue. He just called me a "Troll" and refused to answer.
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member.
The newer pertussis vaccine only contains a tiny part of the bacterium, and is a lot safer, adverse reactions are very rare, but the immunity provided by it doesn't last very long.

Yes, a vaccine can't always contain a whole weakened organism or, in the case of particle vaccines, can't always have the most immunodominant antigens from the pathogen. This could come from problems in manufacturing or isolating the antigen or the issue could lie in safety. Each vaccine is different and some still contain whole attenuated cell/virus.
 

Jeremy

Active Member
This might be a callous and sad (and possibly off-topic) thing to say, but I think the only thing that would change anti-vaxxers' minds is if one of their children caught pertussis or diphtheria. Then again, maybe it wouldn't.
 
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