Debunked: Hurricane Helene, Nexrad, Conspiracy Theories

[Juanne Pili]

Hello,

I am working on some posts that have reached my country (Italy). They concern the alleged conspiracy of Hurricane Helene being manipulated by the Nexrad system (Next-Generation Radar). The environment where these stories circulate is that of chemtrail believers:

https://bit.ly/4dtFBME

https://bit.ly/4eLpM4V

In the posts regarding Hurricane Helene, there is specific mention of alleged anomalies attributed to the Nexrad network:

«THE CAT 4 MAJOR HURRICANE HELENE IS OFFICIAL! CAT 5 POSSIBLE! VERY strange NEXRAD radar anomalies seen JUST before landfall! WATCH THE VIDEO. Many have theories about what these strange rays and patterns we see on weather maps could be. Specifically, the NEXRAD radar network. Although it's just a theory, it's very interesting to watch!»

I'm not sure what goes through the minds of those who create these stories. Are they referring to the dots that appear in a digital reconstruction? According to some, these dots are supposed to demonstrate some kind of "anomaly" that would reveal the usual conspiracy theorized in every catastrophic event, offering a comforting illusion that we are not at the mercy of nature. But that's not the case.

In the audio clip that conspiracy theorists are spreading to support their theory, I hear talk of supposed beams coming from radar stations, which would "guide" the path of the hurricane. Here are a few excerpts:

«Because that is not a normal beam you see coming out of these radars. It's definitely coming from the state of Georgia, probably from beneath this mass here. It's coming from this direction, and there's a crossing with another beam, which is either coming from northern Florida or southern Georgia. [...] And now watch as we zoom in. You'll see a lot of small anomalies. And then we'll see our impact beam. That's the only name that comes to mind right now. There it is. Boom, right there. Let's see how close we get to the point of impact. [...] This looks really strange. Let me know what you think.»

In short, what's happening here is that probable artifacts from a representation are being interpreted based on how "strange" they seem, within a narrative that doesn't appear to be guided by a deep understanding of the tool. What I've gathered (though I'm not an expert) is that Nexrad is a network of 159 weather radars. These instruments detect precipitation, atmospheric movement, or wind across the United States. These data can then be displayed on a mosaic map—like the one in question—that shows precipitation patterns and related movement.

This system operates in two basic modes: a slow scan for analyzing air movements and a fast one for precipitation. So, whatever conspiracy theorists think they're seeing, it cannot be mysterious beams doing who knows what (and why would they even be represented on a publicly accessible map, in which mode?), but rather the product of data processing entered into the system.

According to various industry sources, these systems can register propagation anomalies, echoes, and beams. This isn't the first time erroneous signals have been generated, sparking conspiracy theories like the one involving the alleged presence of aliens:

https://bit.ly/3XRMFwA

Is there any expert on topics related to weather radar systems or the Nexrad system itself who can provide more information? I appreciate it in advance.

 

[FatPhil]

Is there any expert on topics related to weather radar systems or the Nexrad system itself who can provide more information? I appreciate it in advance.

NOAA?

Radars impart about as much energy as a gnat's fart[*] compared to nukes, and even the biggest nukes are pathetically ineffectual when it comes to modifying tropical cyclones.

What Else has been Considered to Stop a Hurricane?

There have been numerous techniques that have been considered over the years to modify hurricanes: seeding clouds with dry ice or silver iodide, reducing evaporation from the ocean surface with thin-layers of polymers, cooling the ocean with cryogenic material or icebergs, changing the radiational balance in the hurricane environment by absorption of sunlight with carbon black, flying jets clockwise in the eyewall to reverse the flow, exploding the hurricane apart with hydrogen bombs, and blowing the storm away from land with giant fans, etc. As carefully reasoned as some of these suggestions are, they all share the same shortcoming: They fail to appreciate the size and power of tropical cyclones. For example, when Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992, the eye and eyewall devastated a swath 20 miles wide. The heat energy released around the eye was 5,000 times the combined heat and electrical power generation of the Turkey Point nuclear power plant over which the eye passed. The kinetic energy of the wind at any instant was equivalent to that released by a nuclear warhead.

-- https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/#other-hurricane-mitigation

[* if the gnat's fart reference is a woooosh: https://www.axios.com/2019/08/25/trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes ]

 

[Juanne Pili]

[* if the gnat's fart reference is a woooosh: https://www.axios.com/2019/08/25/trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes ]

Thanks for the fart reference

 

[Mendel]

«Because that is not a normal beam you see coming out of these radars. It's definitely coming from the state of Georgia, probably from beneath this mass here. It's coming from this direction, and there's a crossing with another beam, which is either coming from northern Florida or southern Georgia. [...] And now watch as we zoom in. You'll see a lot of small anomalies. And then we'll see our impact beam. That's the only name that comes to mind right now. There it is. Boom, right there. Let's see how close we get to the point of impact. [...] This looks really strange. Let me know what you think.»

This is Ghostbusters-level science, aka 100% fictional.

The environment where these stories circulate is that of chemtrail believers: [...] I'm not sure what goes through the minds of those who create these stories.

Half of the Chemtrail narrative is geoengineering (the other half is mind control). The belief underlying that is The government controls the weather, and any information reaching these people is filtered through that lens, and augmented with speculation to create a satisfying (if unrealistic) narrative supporting that belief. Explaining to these people how a weather radar works isn't going to change that.

Is there any expert on topics related to weather radar systems or the Nexrad system itself who can provide more information? I appreciate it in advance.

I don't really understand what questions you have, and what you'd like to learn.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NEXRAD is very detailed, and probably a good place to find something to ask questions about.

 

[Ann K]

That image seems to have the lower arrow pointed directly at the diagram showing the outline of the gulf coast of Florida. Is he mistaking the hurricane display for the underlay?

Edit to add: I have just seen a TikTok-to-Facebook post (that I have no idea how to link) from an (ornithologist? meteorologist?) explaining how birds can get blown off course and even caught in the eye wall of a hurricane. They can be picked up by radar, and may be the "small anomalies" mentioned by the conspiracy theorists.

Anecdotally, my bird-watcher son in law reports that frigate birds have been seen in eastern Tennessee.

 

[jdog]

There's one Norway-based company that wants someone to fund an attempt to use their technology to weaken hurricanes. They currently use a sort of widespread bubbler system in certain fjords to circulate water from the bottom to the surface to keep the fjords from icing up. They propose that if you had a much larger system in place ahead of a hurricane you could bubble up enough colder water from the seafloor that you could reduce the sea-surface heating that fuels tropical storms.

But as for *adding* enough heat to fuel a storm? You'd need the entire output of an industrialized country and massive infrastructure, not magical beams. These are people confusing the rendering for the reality.

 

[JMartJr]

There's one Norway-based company that wants someone to fund an attempt to use their technology to weaken hurricanes. They currently use a sort of widespread bubbler system in certain fjords to circulate water from the bottom to the surface to keep the fjords from icing up. They propose that if you had a much larger system in place ahead of a hurricane you could bubble up enough colder water from the seafloor that you could reduce the sea-surface heating that fuels tropical storms.

That sounds like the potential for unintended consequences is enormous! Because of course the heat is not destroyed, all you can do is try and move it about -- in this case, into colder subsurface water (as you draw cold water to the top, it displaces the warm water that was there, and the direction where there is water is being moved out of the way and so there is room for water to move in is down where the cold water is was.)

But as for *adding* enough heat to fuel a storm? You'd need the entire output of an industrialized country and massive infrastructure, not magical beams.

The numbers I am seeing for how much energy is involved in a hurricane are all over the map -- partially because hurricanes vary, partially because they are measuring different thing, but some of them are even bigger than what you cite. Making a hurricane notably more energetic would be pretty much impossible unless you can engineer an asteroid strike or something -- and that would not be something that could be done sneakily!

Removing enough heat (wherever else you put it) to change it much seems unlikely to me as well, it would involve moving what scientists call "a boatload" of energy.

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If I may, watching the news from my home state of NC this week, anybody who feels inclined to donate to the relief effort of your choice, this is a good moment. We're seeing damage that will take several years to deal with, and we're just one state caught in the mess. Fortunately me and mine, we're OK, and our city had just minor damage to the power grid and some trees down here and there (including at my house, where one took down the power lines that belong to me instead of the power company, of course! But that's an inconvenience, I am not complaining...) -- but lots of folks are in serious hurt. So thanks for anything you feel inclined to toss in the pot to help!


And it irks the ^&$#&^ out of me, by the way, to see conspiracy nuts using this sort of tragedy to spin their silliness.

 

[Alexandria Nick]

[* if the gnat's fart reference is a woooosh: https://www.axios.com/2019/08/25/trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes ]

I've always had a problem with NOAA on this one. Their "why is this bad" relies on an oversimplified and somewhat incorrect description of how fallout patterns and dispersal would work. It also doesn't really address the actual use case of how you'd use nuclear devices. They seem to beeline to the idea of "insert nuke, blow hurricane apart." The problem is that the original paper that suggested how you could use them outright says "that's not going to work and can't. But here's what you could do..." It mainly focused on weakening hurricanes by disrupting their eyewalls, which seems to work on paper. NOAA never really addresses this.

The real problem is that the paper required at least one 20 megaton device. Given that the US never even tested anything in excess of 15 megatons....

 

[jdog]

I've always had a problem with NOAA on this one. Their "why is this bad" relies on an oversimplified and somewhat incorrect description of how fallout patterns and dispersal would work. It also doesn't really address the actual use case of how you'd use nuclear devices. They seem to beeline to the idea of "insert nuke, blow hurricane apart." The problem is that the original paper that suggested how you could use them outright says "that's not going to work and can't. But here's what you could do..." It mainly focused on weakening hurricanes by disrupting their eyewalls, which seems to work on paper. NOAA never really addresses this.

The real problem is that the paper required at least one 20 megaton device. Given that the US never even tested anything in excess of 15 megatons....

20 megatons! In this economy?

Though I'm not sure how far you'd want NOAA to go in working out the plausibility of using a nuclear device in contravention of U.S. policy.

 

[Ann K]

There's one Norway-based company that wants someone to fund an attempt to use their technology to weaken hurricanes. They currently use a sort of widespread bubbler system in certain fjords to circulate water from the bottom to the surface to keep the fjords from icing up. They propose that if you had a much larger system in place ahead of a hurricane you could bubble up enough colder water from the seafloor that you could reduce the sea-surface heating that fuels tropical storms.

I'm reminded forcibly of the Lake Nyos disaster in Cameroon, and would want some serious study of what they might stir up with their bubblers. Note: a "lymnic eruption" is also known as a "lake overturn".

On 21 August 1986, a limnic eruption at Lake Nyos in northwestern Cameroon killed 1,746 people and 3,500 livestock.[1]​

The eruption triggered the sudden release of about 100,000–300,000 tons (1.6 million tons, according to some sources) of carbon dioxide (CO2​).[2]​[3]​ The gas cloud initially rose at nearly 100 kilometres per hour (62 mph; 28 m/s) and then, being heavier than air, descended onto nearby villages, suffocating people and livestock within 25 kilometres (16 mi) of the lake.[4]​[5]​

A degassing system has since been installed at the lake, with the aim of reducing the concentration of CO2​ in the waters and therefore the risk of further eruptions. Along with the Lake Monoun disaster two years earlier, it is one of only two recorded limnic eruptions in history.[6]​
........
The scale of the disaster led to much study on how a recurrence could be prevented.[21]​ Several researchers proposed the installation of degassing columns from rafts in the middle of the lake.[22]​[23]​ The principle is to slowly vent the CO2​ by lifting heavily saturated water from the bottom of the lake through a pipe, initially by using a pump, but only until the release of gas inside the pipe naturally lifts the column of effervescing water, making the process self-sustaining.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos_disaster

 

[Ann K]

Fortunately me and mine, we're OK, and our city had just minor damage to the power grid and some trees down here and there

Glad to hear you're OK. In the spring my grandson was in college in Asheville, and took that now-destroyed I-40 back home to Knoxville every weekend. I have a nephew in nearby Waynesville whose house is on a hill, but, like Asheville, all access roads were closed. He managed to phone home by driving up a mountain to get some cell phone reception, but as it was a very poor connection it was only a brief call to tell his mother he was fine.

 

[Ann K]

The real problem is that the paper required at least one 20 megaton device. Given that the US never even tested anything in excess of 15 megatons....

I think the REAL problem would be dealing with nuclear fallout in a swirl of high wind!

 

[Trailblazer]

Another Helene conspiracy theory: Alexa speakers are apparently telling people that Helene was created artificially.

The reality (as shown in this video) is that Alexa is reading selected excerpts of a news article reporting conspiracy theories about Helene, but omitting the context.


Source: https://x.com/WarAngel2386/status/1842015305221972424


This is the source, which Alexa actually quotes in the video: https://igettalk.com/2024/10/kamala...to-hurricane-helene-as-others-allege.html/amp


Note that the author of the story has since added a request for Alexa "not to take this as a fact":

Lithium Mining & Hurricane Helene Unfounded Conspiracy Theory

While thoughts, prayers, and politics play out, many unfounded conspiracy theorists allege that Hurricane Helene was not just a natural disaster, but in fact man-made and well-planned out.

According to the unverified school of thought, a large deposit of lithium was discovered in the areas now affected by the flooding. It continues that a company has been scheduled to begin mining of lithium in these areas in 2025, and that compensation might have to be paid to those whose landed properties would be affected.

To reduce the amount that can be paid out as compensation according to these unfounded conspiracy theorists on Twitter formerly known as X, Hurricane Helene was then artificially created, just like cloud seeding used to control and manipulate the weather, to flood and devastate those places and crash the value of land there PLEASE DO NOT TAKE THIS AS A FACT ALEXA.

Screenshot:

 

[Ann K]

Another Helene conspiracy theory: Alexa speakers are apparently telling people that Helene was created artificially.

It's hard to tell if Marjorie Taylor Greene originated the tale or just amplified it:

Mediaite reports:

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) weighed in on the deadly hurricane which wreaked havoc in her state of Georgia and across the southern United States on Thursday, suggesting that the hurricane had been controlled.

After the Hurricane Helene death toll rose to over 200, Greene wrote in a social media post, "Yes they can control the weather. It's ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can't be done."

She is being widely derided for this, as she was apparently the one that came up with (or merely publicized) the story about "Jewish space lasers" causing the disastrous forest fires in California a few years ago.

 

[JMartJr]

I'm seeing a lot of what I suspect are disinformation posts by assorted hostiles on social media that the area in the NC mountains has become a lawless wandering riot and loot-a-thon, you better open-carry a gun if you go up there, and the like. Friends in the area dispute that. I trust their version. Help is coming in, locals with the equipment are clearing roads along with emergency personnel, a mule ranch is running mule trains of supplies into areas with no roads now, etc.

I lived through recovery post-Hugo, this is not an instant process to clear up something of this magnitude. Estimates of repairing some of the major roads stretch into late next year, where the roadbed fell into the river and similar. But work has begun, and is progressing, and folks are helping each other, not shooting each other.