Debunked: Completely Engineered Extremes In Weather (Temperature Probability Charts)

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
An article on Rense.com by Dane Wigington claims that the following two charts show a highly artificial and unusual change in the weather in less than a week.


This is described as:
http://www.rense.com/general96/condition.html (http://archive.is/1J73Z)
Unfortunately it seems the writer has misinterpreted the maps. Firstly these are not actually descriptions of what happened, they are forecasts of six days in the future. But most importantly they are not actually temperature maps. They are forecasts of the the probability of the temperature being above or below the normal range.

The maps just show if the temperature is likely to be above or below normal, it does not show how much above or below. And because this is the six day forecast, it's very rough. What he really should be looking at is the actual temperature.

Here's the temp forecast for feb 21th (tomorrow). This is in the middle of the date range for the first chart from Rense.
http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/


And here's five days later.


Note this is the exact same time periods as used in the Rense article. However what you see looks vastly different. This is because the Rense charts don't show temperatures, just higher/lower probabilities.

Yes, some regions of the country experience swings in temperature. Tennessee for example goes from 76°F to 46°F. But this is not really that unusual. Temperature variations are largely governed by the movement of air masses. Warm air from the south, and cold air from the north. So when the weather systems move, you get swings in temperature. To determine how unusual these are, we need to look at a historical record.

Here's a chart of temperature for 2013, Macon, Georgia, US.
http://weatherspark.com/history/30840/2013/Macon-Georgia-United-States^

Notice the overall trend with the seasons, but then the wild swings in both high and low temperatures, and much as 30°F (or more) at times. These swings are both normal, and expected. Here's the chart for Los Angeles, in 2011:

Notice the bar across the top of the above chart. It shows red, white and blue regions. This is similar to what is being forecast in the original NOAA charts. These are periods when the temperature is above average (red), normal (white), or below average (blue)

And these variations are not a new thing. Here's the chart for 1950 Georgia:

http://weatherspark.com/history/30840/1960/Macon-Georgia-United-States (http://archive.is/C9sFk)


1950 Los Angeles:
http://weatherspark.com/history/30699/1950/Los-Angeles-California-United-States (http://archive.is/eyNgF)


1960 Los Angeles:


1970 Los Angeles:


Large variations in temperature are not unusual.


Here's an interesting chart from the Washington post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/hot-hot-hot/2012/07/07/gJQA5CcnSW_graphic.html (http://archive.is/7PQRq)



It shows the high temperature each week for the last 17 years (up to 2012). You can see that significant changes in temperature are not uncommon. The daily temperature is not a smooth up and down curve from winter to summer. It's really rather random.

And these variation in temperature from week to week are really not even that incredible if we look at history. One of the most dramatic swings in temperature came on November 1911, in Oklahoma City, when the temperature went from a high of 83°F to a low of 17°F in just 12 hours^! And that's simply the biggest temperature change, not the fastest. On Jan 22 1943, in Spearfish Dakota, the temperature went from -2°F to 45°F in just two minutes^!
^

This change happened for the same basic reason as the other swings in temperature in the US charts above - but on a much more local scale - it's the shift in boundary between a warm and a cold air mass:



The 1923 incident, or course, was just some wildly unusual, but natural weather. But imagine if it had happened today (and it will certainly happen again, at some point). Unfortunately people have short memories, and don't often look at history.

The most dramatic changes in US weather come from the meandering jet stream - the boundary between warmer air in the south, and cold air in the north. This is naturally variable, and always has been. Some years it is more variable than others.



There's some suggestion that global warming might make the jet stream a bit more variable, but also slower. But it's not clear yet.

What is clear is that the larger US variations in temperature are historically normal.
 
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Soulfly

Banned
Banned
After the recent cold streaks, we are enjoying the low 70s here in North Georgia today. Very typical for the temp to fluctuate like this. I had to turn my AC on in my room, mostly because it is on the top floor and get hotter quicker than the rest of the house.
 

Jason

Senior Member
I don't know if this belongs in this topic, but I was reading up on Contrails on Wiki and found an interesting fact. It deals with climate, more specifically our day/night temperature variations. Immediately after 9/11 the US had a rare 3 day window to do a study on the effects of Contrails and our temps because all flights were grounded.
So ultimately, contrails (not chemtrails) do have an effect on our climate and Earth's radiation balance.
 
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Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Minor update. Here's what actually happened (i.e todays forecast)



- not too different from the original 6-day forecast.:
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Geoengineeringwatch.org continues to misrepresent (or misunderstand) these charts.
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/manipulating-the-climate-manipulating-the-data/


It's worth looking at the real explanation of the NOAA maps to get sense of how wrong the Geoengineeringwatch.org article is:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/erf_info.php?outlook=610&var=t
Or more briefly, the map shows the degree of confidence that a given area will fall in to "Above", "Below" or "Normal", which are calculated so they have historically occurred 33% of the time at that location. In other words, these conditions happen all the time. There's nothing at all unusual about them. Wigington is simply misreading a probability graph as a temperature graph.
 

skephu

Senior Member.
Wigington is simply misreading a probability graph as a temperature graph
Yes, but the probability is related to the temperature. If I'm 90% confident that the temperature will be above normal then it will probably be well above normal. The probabilities can probably be translated to predicted temperature anomalies in some way. See e.g. this temperature anomaly prediction:
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Yes, but the probability is related to the temperature. If I'm 90% confident that the temperature will be above normal then it will probably be well above normal. The probabilities can probably be translated to predicted temperature anomalies in some way. See e.g. this temperature anomaly prediction:

That would be a better chart to use - but then even that would be misused, as he's attempting to show that the temperature variations could only come via climate engineering. I think perhaps it's a misunderstanding of the word "anomaly" which he seems to interpret as something that is bizarre and unprecedented. Really all it means is "not average". And on a daily basis, the weather is rarely average - and certainly not everywhere in the country.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Sure, although the persistent Warm West/Cold East dipole in North America, associated with what is called the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is indeed an anomaly.

It's unfortunate that there's not a better word usage here though. The RRR is a significant anomaly. However the high temperature being 95° instead of 88° today is also an anomaly, just not significant.
 

Jay Reynolds

Senior Member.
You would think that a world famous climate scientist like Dane (he is actually only a High School graduate) would eventually realize his mistake, or that someone, even a friend might correct him. Instead he doubles down on his error?

Probably he can't tolerate the slightest hint that he could be wrong and has insulated himself from correction. But by doing so he has set the stage for making the exact same error a year later.
 

Trailblazer

Moderator
Staff member
That would be a better chart to use - but then even that would be misused, as he's attempting to show that the temperature variations could only come via climate engineering. I think perhaps it's a misunderstanding of the word "anomaly" which he seems to interpret as something that is bizarre and unprecedented. Really all it means is "not average". And on a daily basis, the weather is rarely average - and certainly not everywhere in the country.

This (bolded) is the crux of the matter. Dane seems to expect that the temperature should be "about average" across the whole country at the same time. For a country the size of the USA, that is not only unlikely, it is almost impossible. You will generally have a series of high and low pressure systems around the northern hemisphere, and on the western side of each high pressure ridge it will generally be hotter than average, while on the eastern side it will be cooler than average. The size of typical high pressure systems around the northern hemisphere mean you will generally have at least one ridge-trough system, so somewhere is generally going to be on the hot side and somewhere on the cool side.

Eg the forecast pressure chart to go with that temperature forecast for next Thursday:



The trough centred over the Great Lakes means there is cooler air coming down over the Midwest and generally keeping things cool in the eastern US.
 

Trailblazer

Moderator
Staff member
As an example, the forecast chart for a week's time suggests a very intense plume of hot air coming up towards the UK:



If that happens then the temperature could reach 32-35C here (90-95F) which is pretty unusual.

This chart shows how much above average the temperature could be in London (the red line is long-term mean, the coloured lines are the various model runs, and the temperature is the upper air temperature at 850 millibars, or about 1 mile above sea level. The spikes at the bottom show rainfall.)



And the flip side of that is that further east there will be a cooler plunge of air, such that when London gets hot, Moscow will be considerably cooler than average:

 
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SR1419

Senior Member.
I think perhaps it's a misunderstanding of the word "anomaly" which he seems to interpret as something that is bizarre and unprecedented. Really all it means is "not average". And on a daily basis, the weather is rarely average - and certainly not everywhere in the country.


Seems like he is simply misinterpreting or not recognizing climate and/or weather history. I mean aren't "anomalies" the norm? Isnt climate history- and in fact basic daily weather- filled with variations and extremes that then get computed into "averages" ?

A scenario like the RRR has likely occurred many times over the last 10,000 yrs, why is the only explanation GE?
 

MikeG

Senior Member.
It seems to me that the color palette used in the NOAA map is its most important feature for geoengineeringwatch.org followers. Red means "bad" and that is really just the extent of it. Complicated examination takes them away from simple, easy distinctions.

The anomaly portion of the RRR is interesting. This might stray into the psychology of CT believers, but it might be that it is easier for them to understand weather subject to an omnipotent authority (Wigington's "global power structure") than admit that sometimes nature simply defies prediction, like many other things in the world.
 

Trailblazer

Moderator
Staff member
This might stray into the psychology of CT believers, but it might be that it is easier for them to understand weather subject to an omnipotent authority (Wigington's "global power structure") than admit that sometimes nature simply defies prediction, like many other things in the world.

IMHO that is the root cause of a lot of conspiracy theories. People prefer to believe that bad things are being done deliberately (and therefore could potentially be stopped from happening if we could do away with the Bad Guys), than to believe that bad things happen randomly and thus will always happen.
 
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