Debunked:9/9/2012 -- HAARP ring outbreak -- Midwest to South USA

[scombrid]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thqhr-27V1o&feature=channel&list=UL

Watch each ring epicenter for developing severe weather .. usually within 48 hours of the pulse .. usually attracting storms to the center of each pulse.

In that video Dutch attributes noturnal clutter on radar to HAARP and predicts that severe weather with hit the ring centers within 48 hours. Yes, let's watch the areas he highlights from 4AM CDT on the 9th of September through 4AM CDT on the 11th of September and see what weather manifests.

I noted in this post:

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/75...s-and-Scalar-Squares-are-Often-From-the-Birds

The fall migration of birds from there northern breeding grounds to southern wintering grounds had begun and that Dutchsinse would likely start to make "forecasts" based on the appearance of "HAARP" rings when the big movement of animals started behind the larger frontal passages. We experienced the first big front of the fall season this past weekend as many people in the eastern 2/3s of the US have surely noticed with and large drop in temperatures. When cold fronts pass in the fall birds of many species from hawks, ducks, and geese to neotropical song birds make mass migration at night on the favorable winds behind the fronts. This results in widespread nocturnal clutter. This occurred on a grand scale overnight between Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th.

I've attached below the national mosaic from 12AM CDT on 9 September as well as velocity images from western Kentucky in the middle of the "ring outbreak" to western south Dakota where there is minimal clutter around the radar. In Kentucky as well as at all of the sites where there is widespread clutter on the radar the winds are north. In western south Dakota the wind is west. Loops of the velocity images from individuals confirm that the clutter comprises southbound widely scattered targets which are consistent with migrating birds. Dutch says that each ring center will be hit with severe weather within 48 hours. In actuality the weather is typicaly quite nice for several days after these fall "rings" as high pressure builds in behind the front.





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[scombrid]

I've been accused of spreading "disinfo". Are bird watchers and ornithologists also part of a "coverup" out there spreading "disinfo" by attributing certain types of radar returns to birds and claiming to use such returns to study the movement of birds and to select locations to focus their bird-watching?

http://www.wqed.org/birdblog/2012/09/10/watch-migration-on-radar/#comments

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VaRF2w3htFo

Most birds that flap to migrate choose to travel at night because the calmer air makes flying easier and they can see the stars by which they navigate.
From sunset until 2:00am — sometimes until sunrise — they are in the air above us flying in loose flocks kept together by contact calls. The number of travelers peaks between 11:00pm and 1:00am on nights with a north wind. We know this because they’re seen on radar.
Back when radar was first widely used during World War II operators noticed that many things showed up as blips on the screen including rain, snow, birds and insects. After the war, radar came into its own as a weather forecasting tool. Nowadays it’s easy for birders to monitor nighttime migration because weather radar is available on the Internet

The note above about birds flying in the calm winds of night is an oversimplification. Birds want a tailwind but they want less turbulence so flying at night is best. Air is more stable at night because you don't have the buoyancy driven convection from solar heating of the surface. Moderate gradient winds are birds' prefered condition for migration.

 

[scombrid]

http://www.nemesisbird.com/2012/09/heavy-migration-on-light-north-winds/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nemesisbird+%28The+Nemesis+Bird%29

From the east coast:

The radar showed pretty heavy migration across the East Coast last night as clear skies and north winds finally aligned across the region.

 

[scombrid]

Bird watchers predicting the migration behind the front as it traverses the country:

http://birdcast.info/forecast/new-york-city-area-migration-forecast-6-september/

[h=1]New York City Area Migration Forecast – 6 September[/h]

Southwesterly winds, warm temperatures, and scattered rain will keep most birds on the ground for the end of the week through Sunday. However, a substantial change in weather is forecast late on Sunday, and there is a good chance that a passing cold front, followed by cooler temperatures and northwesterly winds, will facilitate a large movement of birds, beginning on Sunday night if it passes before sunset. Migration will be heavy once the front passes the region. Sunday night (assuming the front passes) would be an excellent night for observing migration atop the Empire State Building, watching from the observation deck on the 86th floor as birds fly streak past, illuminated by the light of the building. This night will also be a good night for listening to nocturnal migration, particularly in suburban areas of New York where one might hear flight calls of passing Veery, Wood Thrush, Scarlet Tanager, American Redstart and Ovenbird, and a suite of other species. Monday should be a fine day for weather and to see a large number and diversity of birds in city parks like Central Park, Forest Park, and Prospect Park. This diversity should include the muted hues of 15-20 species of warblers, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, and thrushes like Veery, Wood Thrush, and the first substantial numbers of Swainson’s Thrushes

 

[scombrid]

Last year September 6 is nearly a carbon copy of the current event:

http://birddigiscoper.blogspot.com/2011/09/warbler-migration-and-nexrad.html

Top image is after sunset on 4 September 2011. Bottom is Midnight CDT on 8 September 2012. Note the rings behind the front.

 

[solrey]

Yes, let's watch the areas he highlights from 4AM CDT on the 9th of September through 4AM CDT on the 11th of September and see what weather manifests.

Nice work scombrid. His "forecast" should be a major fail as there's an Omega Block slowly making its way from the Ohio valley into the Mid-Atlantic. That should provide nice weather well past 4AM CDT on 11, Sept. Forecasts across the region show pleasant weather until a cold front begins to move through on Wednesday.

I noticed he put that vid on his "backup" channel, without comment. Just weird background music and a recording of somebody going on about resonant frequencies of the human body. The part about cell phone frequencies and head size being in resonance was quite ridiculous considering cell phones operate across a fairly wide range of frequencies and head size and shape varies greatly. Just more fearmongering BS from dutch.

 

[scombrid]

He certainly doesn't need hits to claim success. He does seem to have shifted his "HAARP" ring forecasts off of his main page. Maybe he is realizing his poor confirmation rate and is putting these posts where they are mostly consumed by his more loyal suc... "fans".

http://sincedutch.files.wordpress.c...ring-effected-area-1245am-cdt-sept-5-2012.jpg

He has in that photo a shot of "rings" and then screen shots of radar "multiple tornado outbreak in ring affected areas". But he always says in his forecasts "Watch each ring epicenter..." and none of the weather in his confirmation images is in or near a ring epicenter.

If he was more clever he'd leave the HAARP ring "forecasts" for the spring when the rings are prominent ahead of fronts where birds are migrating on southerly winds and weather does follow close behind the rings (even if the weather doesn't have any correlation to the ring "epicenters" since those are just the location of the radars that are surveiling the atmosphere).

 

[scombrid]

Weather has been mighty fine these last couple of days. There hasn't even been any precip in the "warned" areas much less strong or severe storms. Will he start extending his time frame to 72 hours, 96 hours, etc...?

The night of the 9th-10th had big bird migration with what ornithologists call coastal fallout. Notice the heavy non-precipitation returns at 1AM EDT along the coastal sights like JAX, ILM, Savannah. That is birds running into the front pinned along the coast and dropping to stop-over spots. The second pic is noon CDT yesterday just to illustrate how clear it has been since that giant high pressure built in.

 

[scombrid]

Oops. Forgot second pic in previous post. Pic is Noon CDT yesterday. Beautiful weather over the east 2/3s of the country.

 

[scombrid]

Still no severe weather in his "warned" areas.

 

[scombrid]

26-November-2012:

He pulled the video linked in the opening post from his channel. Don't know when, but it is gone. Regardless, there are plenty of similar videos in spring and fall 2011 and spring 2012. He backed off that tack a bit this fall though.

 

[scombrid]

I see he has blogged with all of his supposed confirmations:

http://sincedutch.wordpress.com/2012/01/28/1282012-skeptical-about-what-i-call-haarp-rings/

He even added his latest 27 November post to the list.

His September 9 forecast that is debunked in this thread and that he has deleted from youtube is not on that list. Obviously he has more videos than I have time to analyze one by one. It is telling that the one that I did pick apart was simply disappeared without a word. That is confirmation bias on par with a bad cold reader. Keep the hits and make the misses go away. Never mind the shoe-horning required to make the hits fit.

One test for his confirmations, something he doesn't do, is to draw a circle around his ring and see if the subsequent weather is actually in the center of the rings or as he says "Watch each ring epicenter for developing severe weather" . It becomes very clear that the weather has no correllation with the rings (which it wouldn't since the rings are always just non precipition returns of some sort whether from ground clutter, biological targets, or data error and he fails to distinguish between types though their appearance differs substantially).

I would like to ignore him but he is accusing hundreds of meteorologists and radar technicians of high crimes with his fallacious claims about NEXRAD being a weather weapon when it is just a remote sensing tool.

 

[Jazzy]

I would like to ignore him but he is accusing hundreds of meteorologists and radar technicians of high crimes with his fallacious claims about NEXRAD being a weather weapon when it is just a remote sensing tool.

Yes. That's really irritating. I know how you feel.