COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
Science magazine has a news article out that summarizes the situation nicely, they even address conspiracy theories. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins
So, right now we know that this coronavirus is very similar to bat viruses, but it remains unclear how it jumped to humans. Scientists suspect that the virus may have jumped to another animal first and identifying that intermediary species remains a big priority and challenge.
 

Arugula

New Member
The Chinese tech giant Tencent seems to have temporarily reported (or misreported) a huge number of infections on their website (10x more infections and 80x more deaths), leading some to fear these are the "real" numbers that China is hiding from us:

1580900133-5e3a9f2567c51.jpg
Left to right: "Nationally confirmed cases", "Suspected Cases", "Cured", "Deaths"

Source: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

I think this is more likely to have been a temporary bug than someone trying to "leak the truth". Not because these numbers themselves are impossible, but the data gathering seems sort of impossible. We have seen a massive mobilization, but even adding around 1200 medical staff brought in to join doctors in the area doesn't seem close to the scale needed to handle 5,000+ new cases per day, tracking an additional 2,600+ people daily, while treating a sick population the size of Dayton Ohio, and confirming 800 deaths a day. Not to mention how difficult it would be to hide the deaths of 24,285 real people with families and connections all over the world. A lie that big would also be extremely dangerous to healthcare workers and scientists racing to find a cure. And all of those lies would lead to exponentially more lies... and the Chinese government would completely lose all legitimacy if those "lies" were revealed.
 
Last edited:

dc_hatman

Member
My wife and I have a trip booked for Vietnam and Cambodia in June. Of course we are worried now about whether we really should be traveling to Asia.

I contacted our travel insurance and it seems that we are not covered if we wish to cancel the trip due to Coronavirus. Apparently it is common policy for travel insurance to not cover for cancellations due to global health epidemics.

This leaves us possibly in the precarious position that our tour may be canceled, yet we will have flights booked which we cannot get a refund for.

I’m sure many other people will be in this situation.

Of course this is a first world problem and nowhere near compatible to those directly affected by the outbreak.
 

Leifer

Senior Member
The Chinese tech giant Tencent seems to have temporarily reported (or misreported) a huge number of infections on their website (10x more infections and 80x more deaths), leading some to fear these are the "real" numbers that China is hiding from us:

View attachment 39514
Left to right: "Nationally confirmed cases", "Suspected Cases", "Cured", "Deaths"

I don't think there was an "accidental release of true (or hidden) figures". t seemed like a mistake that was soon corrected.
Because according to the bolstered figures first presented....this means there is a 16% death rate among the infected....in China.
With 154,023 confirmed cases and 24,589 deaths....this results in a 16% death rate.
But in other countries at the same time period as these numbers..... Japan's infected would have had 7 deaths, and Singapore would have had 4 deaths.
But there were Zero (0) deaths in both above respective countries, respective of infected numbers..
Source: https://youtu.be/GT3_A1bf9pU?t=77
 
Last edited:

Leifer

Senior Member
I also think there needs to be some perspective (as far as explosive virus media paranoia), that there is already a mutating virus that is killing many more people called Influenza.
U.S. CDC estimates were recently reported as:
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
I'm not trying to distract from a new or novel virus that may be genuinely concerning................. but that public media may be potentially becoming numb or "immune" (bad pun) to an ongoing virus emergency........or that the FLU is somehow not as important or equally worthy of interest.
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
some publications and youtube videos are reporting that the virus is now airborne. since this is a major problem, i went looking for some official source... and at this time, no. there is no evidence at this time coronavirus is airborne.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-virus-coronavirus-aerosol-transmission-moh-12418446


add: it sounds as if a bureaucrat maybe misunderstood what airborne/aerosol is. (I don't speak Chinese so im going by reporters like Newsweek). I don't want to quote his bunk but the responses from doctors, that NEwsweek also gives:
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-could-airborne-chinese-official-claims-1486493
 
Last edited:

Agent K

Active Member
some publications and youtube videos are reporting that the virus is now airborne. since this is a major problem, i went looking for some official source... and at this time, no. there is no evidence at this time coronavirus is airborne.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/wuhan-virus-coronavirus-aerosol-transmission-moh-12418446


add: it sounds as if a bureaucrat maybe misunderstood what airborne/aerosol is. (I don't speak Chinese so im going by reporters like Newsweek). I don't want to quote his bunk but the responses from doctors, that NEwsweek also gives:
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-could-airborne-chinese-official-claims-1486493
China has a history of downplaying epidemics like SARS, so take anything they say with a big grain of salt.
CDC guidance as of February 3 (bold added for emphasis)
They're still debating whether flu is airbone. A 2018 study found that it is.
But then, a 2019 study found that surgical masks were no different from N95 respirators at protecting healthcare workers from the flu.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
China has a history of downplaying epidemics like SARS, so take anything they say with a big grain of salt.
Don't get me wrong, if my elderly mother lived in the apartment above a coronavirus infection, I would move her. but this is a debunking site and I can find no medical confirmation that 2019-nCoV is currently airborne.
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
As far as we can currently tell, Covid-19 (now the official name of 2019-nCoV) spreads in a similar manner as SARS, which is thought to be through respiratory droplets or fomites. This means that being in sneezing or coughing range of an infected person or, for example, touching a door handle that they just touched after wiping their nose, coughing into their hand, etc. would be required in order to catch it from that infected individual. https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
mod add: (because I had to look it up) fomite:
objects or materials which are likely to carry infection, such as clothes, utensils, and furniture.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Agent K

Active Member
As far as we can currently tell, Covid-19 (now the official name of 2019-nCoV) spreads in a similar manner as SARS, which is thought to be through respiratory droplets or fomites. This means that being in sneezing or coughing range of an infected person or, for example, touching a door handle that they just touched after wiping their nose, coughing into their hand, etc. would be required in order to catch it from that infected individual. https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
mod add: (because I had to look it up) fomite:
objects or materials which are likely to carry infection, such as clothes, utensils, and furniture.
The CDC recommended respirators back in 2005.
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
The CDC recommended respirators back in 2005.
recommending highest level precautions for health care workers with new diseases, is not the same thing as the medical community declaring something as airborne.

add: cdc commentary during ebola scare (bold added for emphasis)
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/t1020-ebola-reponse-update.html
 
Last edited:

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
The CDC recommended respirators back in 2005.
Those masks can also help protect against thick droplets from a fresh sneeze or cough. SARS was never confirmed to be transmissible through lingering aerosols.
 

Agent K

Active Member
Those masks can also help protect against thick droplets from a fresh sneeze or cough. SARS was never confirmed to be transmissible through lingering aerosols.
Wasn't the worst SARS outbreak literally fanned by bathroom exhaust fans through air shafts?
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
Wasn't the worst SARS outbreak literally fanned by bathroom exhaust fans through air shafts?
ugh. thanks for making me read that just before I dream. the bottom line (no pun intended) is
https://www.foxnews.com/story/who-leaky-pipes-fans-and-diarrhea-caused-sars-outbreak-at-hong-kong-apartments
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
Wasn't the worst SARS outbreak literally fanned by bathroom exhaust fans through air shafts?
Is there a source on that? Many SARS outbreaks were initiated by super spreaders (think people like Typhoid Mary except with SARS). In these cases, patients were admitted to hospitals and then spread SARS to hospital staff who then spread it to patients. The spread to hospital staff was thought to happen during intubation. Intubation is when hospital staff tries to insert a breathing tube into a SARS patient's throat when they are having trouble breathing. There are multiple accounts of super spreaders spewing bloody mucus and phlegm during this intubation procedure and the staff subsequently getting sick. These accounts are retold in books like Spillover by David Quamen and Twenty-First Century Plague: The Story of SARS by Abraham Thomas. The topic is also described briefly on Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super-spreader#SARS_outbreak_2003
 

Agent K

Active Member
Is there a source on that?
deirdre found it, the outbreak at Amoy Gardens
https://www.foxnews.com/story/who-leaky-pipes-fans-and-diarrhea-caused-sars-outbreak-at-hong-kong-apartments
Also here.
http://www.openscar.com/amoygardens.html

They say, "Transmission of the disease by airborne, waterborne route and infected dust aerosols has been examined but these were not supported by the epidemiological picture and laboratory results."
So it was another weird mode of transmission that I don't quite understand.
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
deirdre found it, the outbreak at Amoy Gardens
https://www.foxnews.com/story/who-leaky-pipes-fans-and-diarrhea-caused-sars-outbreak-at-hong-kong-apartments
Also here.
http://www.openscar.com/amoygardens.html

They say, "Transmission of the disease by airborne, waterborne route and infected dust aerosols has been examined but these were not supported by the epidemiological picture and laboratory results."
So it was another weird mode of transmission that I don't quite understand.
I see, but this does not conclude that the virus is transmissible through aerosols.
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
So it was another weird mode of transmission that I don't quite understand.
sounds to me most of those cases were probably transferred by typical "flu like" means (elevator buttons, door handles etc)
but leaky septic pipes are a good lesson for people to be aware of. :(

droplets (not airborne) are still pretty small. droplets are bigger than (as of a few years ago anyway) 5um.
1581520326019.png

https://eportal.mountsinai.ca/Microbiology/faq/transmission.shtml

this is 2007, but more recent (2018 etc) published papers are still quoting the same numbers. (bold added for emphasis)
https://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/WHO_CDS_EPR_2007_6c.pdf
 

Stefan Leahu

New Member
My personal opinion is that it might depend on atmospheric conditions, but I'm a meteorologist, not a virologist. In cool air with high relative humidity, the virus itself might be a condensation nucleus for fine water droplets, which are themselves much more prevalent in such atmospheric conditions (use a headlamp on a cold foggy night and you'll see what I mean), and that would mean it stays airbourne and alive much longer. Might not be the case in drier air.
 
Last edited:

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
My personal opinion is that it might depend on atmospheric conditions
You would be right, these factors are in fact thought to affect the spread of influenza virus. Whether or not the same is true for coronavirus remains untested and thus unclear. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6706471/pdf/mSphere.00552-19.pdf
 

Arugula

New Member
Televangelist Jim Bakker has added coronavirus into his doomsday prophecy, and is now selling $300 "Silver Solution" (aka colloidal silver) to "kill" the coronavirus. His site claims that it uses “catalytic instead of chemical action” to "deactivate" it. This is the same solution he's tried to pass off as an STI cure in the past.


Source: https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1228337601448296448



It probably goes without saying, but colloidal silver doesn't do anything when ingested, and if anything it can cause poor absorption of real medications and potentially cause argyria.

https://nccih.nih.gov/health/colloidalsilver
https://www.iheart.com/content/2017-10-11-health-drink-turns-people-blue-and-it-doesnt-even-work/
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Agent K

Active Member
You would be right, these factors are in fact thought to affect the spread of influenza virus. Whether or not the same is true for coronavirus remains untested and thus unclear. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6706471/pdf/mSphere.00552-19.pdf
The Director of Penn State University's Center of Infectious Disease Dynamics, Elizabeth McGowan, said this:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/experts-weigh-in-on-how-coronavirus-may-or-may-not-run-rampant-in-us-in-coming-months/681958
If we know that heat and humidity prevent the spread of viruses, does anyone recommend raising the heat and humidity indoors? What about using air purifiers?
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
does anyone recommend raising the heat and humidity indoors?
well you've still got the contact transfer.

this article suggests higher humidity though. the CDC did a study.
https://www.livescience.com/27533-flu-transmission-humidity.html

https://www.airpurifiers.com/pages/air-purifiers-for-germs


edit add: i'm going to add that humidifiers MUST be cleaned frequently to prevent mold etc. which is bad to breathe and high humidity can make breathing difficult for people with asthma, so pneumonia might be a similar problem. since Covid-19 presents with breathing difficulties/pneumonia, it's best to consult a physician before raising humidity levels too high in the home.
 
Last edited:

Agent K

Active Member
https://www.airpurifiers.com/pages/air-purifiers-for-germs

edit add: i'm going to add that humidifiers MUST be cleaned frequently to prevent mold etc. which is bad to breathe and high humidity can make breathing difficult for people with asthma, so pneumonia might be a similar problem. since Covid-19 presents with breathing difficulties/pneumonia, it's best to consult a physician before raising humidity levels too high in the home.
Raise the humidity to the normal summer level. Use a vaporizer or boil water to raise both temperature and humidity.

Do ionic purifiers help? They're supposed to make particles clump together and stick to surfaces, but they also generate irritating ozone.
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
If we know that heat and humidity prevent the spread of viruses, does anyone recommend raising the heat and humidity indoors? What about using air purifiers?
Hospitals do have to consider humidity. I'm not aware of any doctor recommendations about how to treat your home, though. As far as I'm aware, good hygiene and vaccinations (when available) are the best precautions you can take. https://www.cedengineering.com/userfiles/Intro to HVAC for Med Facilities.pdf
 

Agent K

Active Member
More mainstream speculation about biolabs.

"Beijing-sponsored South China University of Technology concludes that 'the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8009669/Did-coronavirus-originate-Chinese-government-laboratory.html
Some click-bait
"Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program" (but so far there's no evidence of it)
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-link-china-biowarfare-program-possible/
"China denies lab link to coronavirus as questions over origin mount"
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/5/china-denies-lab-link-to-coronavirus-as-questions-/
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
"Beijing-sponsored South China University of Technology concludes that 'the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8009669/Did-coronavirus-originate-Chinese-government-laboratory.html
Here is the link to the actual publication. https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/PDF-The-possible-origins-of-2019-nCoV-coronavirus.pdf It's not suggesting anything totally crazy, an accidental release from a lab is different from claiming it was engineered. However, this is not a scientific study. All that is discussed in the paper is circumstantial evidence, mainly that a lab that studies coronaviruses is ~12 kilometers away from the Wuhan seafood market. The experiment to prove that their idea is true would be to directly compare the genomes of coronavirus strains in the outbreak to any that were kept in the lab. This has not been done. So, this paper does not test or prove anything.
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
From today: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
that jeopardise our global collaboration in the fight against this virus,” the statement says.
this bit seems a bit hyperbolic. I highly doubt the conspiracy believer or spreader types are actually doing anything constructive as far as combatting this virus problem. The serious men and women that ARE working (and risking their lives) to save people* and those trying figure out a way to stop this virus spread don't care about "media" conspiracy theories, they have bigger things to deal with.

* I read, besides the doctor who first alerted about the virus, that the head of the hospital in Wuhan has died too from the virus :( These men and women on the front lines are the true definition of 'heroic'.
 

Dan Wilson

Senior Member
this bit seems a bit hyperbolic. I highly doubt the conspiracy believer or spreader types are actually doing anything constructive as far as combatting this virus problem.
I don't think it's an inaccurate statement. For example, if people reject the idea that the virus came about as a result of humans' close contact with animals then preventative measures for future outbreaks will be harder to implement.
 

Trailspotter

Senior Member
There is a new related article in Science magazine:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus
 
Top