COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

Mendel

Senior Member.
1. Deaths are on a delay (16 days for Australia), the world uptick was only 10 days ago.
2. Compared to 2020, we have vaccinations now, and better treatments which is why the case fatality rate shrunk.
 

Rory

Senior Member.
Yep. But also it's a clear indicator that Omicron isn't so strong. UK has had it longer than Australia and no significant uptick there compared to cases/past:

1641579475420.png

1641579529950.png

Maybe that'll go to about double that in a week or two based on the large increase in case numbers from the last month or so.
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
But also it's a clear indicator that Omicron isn't so strong. UK has had it longer than Australia and no significant uptick there compared to cases/past:
To me, it looks like the recent uptick in deaths on your graph is due to the Omicron uptick. We can expect relatively fewer deaths with Omicron than with Delta, but many more Omicron cases, so....

Dec 31 update from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings (there should be a Jan 7 update, but it's delayed?)
Article:
An update on the analysis published last week finds the risk of presentation to emergency care or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.53, 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.57). The risk of hospital admission from emergency departments with Omicron was approximately one-third of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.33, 95% CI: 0.30 to
0.37).
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
Here's how some of the non-RNA vaccines are performing against Omicron:
Article:
Dec 23 (Reuters) - A three-dose course of AstraZeneca's (AZN.L) COVID-19 vaccine is effective against the rapidly-spreading Omicron coronavirus variant, the pharmaceutical company said on Thursday, citing data from an Oxford University lab study.
Findings from the study, yet to be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal, match those from rivals Pfizer-BioNTech(PFE.N), (22UAy.DE) and Moderna(MRNA.O) which have also found a third dose of their shots works against Omicron.
The study on AstraZeneca's vaccine, Vaxzevria, showed that after a three-dose course of the vaccine, neutralising levels against Omicron were broadly similar to those against the virus's Delta variant after two doses.

Article:
Published: 3:24pm, 5 Jan, 2022
China’s widely used Sinopharm and Sinovac Covid-19 vaccines will give some protection against severe illness, hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant despite declines in protective antibodies, a WHO official said on Tuesday.

The assessment from World Health Organization incident manager Abdi Mahamud came just days after several preliminary laboratory studies indicated that three doses of Sinovac did not produce enough antibodies to prevent infection from the new variant.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
wow America is cranking. we're at almost 90% with at least one dose!
Article:
You know, we’ve reduced the number of American adults without any shots from 90 million to about 35 million in the past six months. But there’s still 35 million people not vaccinated.



edit: no, i think it's like 70% when i do the math by hand. i dont know why my math never works when i use a calculator!
edit 2: ah i had to multiply not divide.
 
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obiwanbenobi

Active Member
wow America is cranking. we're at almost 90% with at least one dose!
Article:
You know, we’ve reduced the number of American adults without any shots from 90 million to about 35 million in the past six months. But there’s still 35 million people not vaccinated.

by now if you haven't been vaccinated it is more likely you're going to be innoculated by the Omicron variant. hopefully it won't be noticed or harmful. good luck. :)

Michigan hospitalisation numbers are looking ok, if high, because we were still coming down from the Delta wave when Omicron hit. you can see a reduction in the numbers before they started going back up:

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news...ichigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/

Monday numbers are always not really up to date, but that's what we get...

how long is this peak going to go? 3-6 more weeks for those who are more remote. i think around here it will be peaked in 3 weeks or less.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
you can see a reduction in the numbers before they started going back up:

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news...ichigan-covid-19-hospitalization-data-trends/
The really scary stuff is here:
SmartSelect_20220111-012145_Samsung Internet.jpg
Content from External Source
Monday numbers are always not really up to date, but that's what we get...
That's why I'm waiting for Tuesday. :)
how long is this peak going to go?
My guess is it'll be similar to last winter, but who knows?
 

Ravi

Senior Member.
Perhaps of interest. In the Netherlands, the amount of positive tests is going to 200k in a week (Dutch!).
But, there is no increase seen in the hospital and ICU numbers. It is of course all related to the Omikron variant being "mild".

EDIT Forgot to mention, this effect happens DURING our full lock down.

1641913907791.png
Relevant tweet
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
But, there is no increase seen in the hospital and ICU numbers. It is of course all related to the Omikron variant being "mild".
We'll see what happens with the deaths. It is scary to see Omicron defy lockdown.
Australian growth is exponential on the ourworldindata.org chart; and the logarithmic chart shows it's multiplying faster than it is in the UK or the US, so without countermeasures, Australia is going to overtake them. The time to stop this growth is now.
That was on Dec 24th, 18 days ago, and Australia had gone from 75/million to 200/million cases. Unfortunately, the country has now topped 3000/million and fulfilled my prediction. Cases triple each week and it's not even winter. Also, Japan's cases are surging badly.
Article:
coronavirus-data-explorer-9.png

But deaths are at their lowest level since October 2020:
it's a clear indicator that Omicron isn't so strong. UK has had it longer than Australia and no significant uptick there compared to cases/past:
5 days later (note there is also a reporting delay involving deaths):
Article:
SmartSelect_20220111-184316_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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Rory

Senior Member.
Also:

Maybe that'll go to about double that in a week or two based on the large increase in case numbers from the last month or so.

Looks pretty on schedule for that.

(I was literally about to post the exact same image right when your post came up.)
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
What is in your opinion a "covid case"? Is that someone who is sick or someone who just tested positive?
Typically, both; it depends on the country (which is why using these graphs to compare countries against each other is slightly iffy).
Usually, a "case" requires a diagnosis by a doctor, but some countries derive their case numbers from laboratory PCR test results because they can be reported more quickly than doctor's diagnoses via the local health officials. (A pneumonia case can typically be diagnosed as a Covid case without a test because the X-ray is distinctive.)

I'd say that a case is fairly certain to correspond to an infected person, but not all infected persons become cases; if they're asymptomatic, it may depend on contact tracing for them to get tested; and some people simply won't get tested. But you can be fairly sure that cases rising means infections rising, unless there's been a testing policy change.

Someone who is sick and tests positive for Covid is symptomatic case; someone who tests positive but is not sick could be asymptomatic (no symptoms) or pre-symptomatic (gets symptoms later).
 

obiwanbenobi

Active Member
The really scary stuff is here:
SmartSelect_20220111-012145_Samsung Internet.jpg
Content from External Source

This is the total number of cases for 10 million people. While I hate to see anyone get sick this is still a small number of cases. Also considering those cases are showing up in the children because up until recently children were not being vaccinated.


That's why I'm waiting for Tuesday. :)

They only update that website Monday, Wednesday and Friday.


My guess is it'll be similar to last winter, but who knows?

It will probably burn out in Michigan sooner than more remote places and isolated populations may take even longer, but once it gets going it runs with the wind.

I saw a claim that Omicron is on par or worse than the measles when it comes down to how easily transmitted it is. Based upon everything happening around me I have no doubt about that. Almost everyone I know has been sick recently or is sick now. We're both having some mild cases ourselves right now. Nothing major, but it is here.

So far there are still a large number of Delta variant cases hanging on in the hospitals and most of the deaths are still from the unvaxinated. A few more weeks of mess and then I hope we'll be past the worst of it. In the meantime there will be disruptions to various stores being open because they can't even get enough people to come to work.
 
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deirdre

Senior Member.
This is the total number of cases for 10 million people.
but 10 million is your whole population. in Connecticut our pediatric population is about 25%.

but that chart is likely just a general indicator of how covid is spreading through the community as most states at this point are not separating "with covid" from "for covid".

Don't get me wrong any virus or bacterial that children get, esp in the winter months can be serious if not fatal. and this certainly includes Omnicron.

Article:
Some hospitals are seeing more patients with incidental COVID-19 cases, or patients who were primarily admitted for other ailments and test positive.

Officials from New York City-based NYU Langone Health told The New York Times in a Jan. 4 report that about 65 percent of its COVID-19 patients were "incidentally" found to be infected after admission for other reasons. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul asked hospitals to adjust their reporting on COVID-19 hospitalizations beginning Jan. 4 to make the distinction between those admitted for the virus as their primary condition and those who incidentally test positive.

Hospitals across the U.S. reported similar trends. Fifty three percent of 471 COVID-19 patients at Jackson (Fla.) Health System were primarily admitted for other reasons, and at Baltimore-based Johns Hopkins Medicine, about 20 percent of patients seeking non-COVID-19-related care are tesing positive.



Article:
In late December, for example, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky raised eyebrows when she suggested that “many children are hospitalized with covid as opposed to because of covid.” She was accused in some quarters of downplaying pediatric hospitalizations, but Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, made almost identical comments regarding children.





this is 2 years old
1642176260406.png
https://mlpp.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021-kids-count-in-michigan-data-book.pdf
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
Also considering those cases are showing up in the children because up until recently children were not being vaccinated.
That sounds plausible. We see pediatric hospitalisations peaking at twice the number of the last wave. Adult hospitalization is not twice, but about the same; but back in April, Michigan had 70% unprotected and now 35% unprotected, so perhaps that's what accounts for the lower numbers.

Michigan has 2.6 million residents under 18, so 130 pediatric admissions are 50 per million. Adults are at something like 400 per million.
 

Ravi

Senior Member.
For the past 20 days increasing numbers of positively tested persons, and today we had 42.427 over the past 24hrs. Luckily, and amazingly, the amount of folks needing treatment in hospital is not increasing at all.
 
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Rory

Senior Member.
Yep. But also it's a clear indicator that Omicron isn't so strong. UK has had it longer than Australia and no significant uptick there compared to cases/past:

1641579475420.png

1641579529950.png

Maybe that'll go to about double that in a week or two based on the large increase in case numbers from the last month or so.

10 days later and UK cases are quite a long way down from the Jan 5th peak:

1642452344699.png

And 7-day average on deaths not quite doubled yet:

1642452444234.png

Seems like a fairly rosy forecast. Until the next variant kicks in.
 

obiwanbenobi

Active Member
For the past 20 days increasing numbers of positively tested persons, and today we had 42.427 over the past 24hrs. Luckily, and amazingly, the amount of folks needing treatment in hospital is not increasing at all.

i hope it stays that way!
 

ladyMccormick

New Member
To me, it looks like the recent uptick in deaths on your graph is due to the Omicron uptick. We can expect relatively fewer deaths with Omicron than with Delta, but many more Omicron cases, so....

Dec 31 update from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings (there should be a Jan 7 update, but it's delayed?)
Article:
An update on the analysis published last week finds the risk of presentation to emergency care or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.53, 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.57). The risk of hospital admission from emergency departments with Omicron was approximately one-third of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.33, 95% CI: 0.30 to
0.37).

Yeah. We do analyst like this at the institution I work for. The Omicron infection rate seems high, but the kill rate is meager. I think there will be no one left without the virus with this variant.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Via https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings :
Article:
SmartSelect_20220118-160101_Samsung Notes.jpg

This graph shows that there was a 2-week period at the end of November (the green "foot" on the bottom graph) where travel restrictions made sense, and after that, the cat was out of the bag. After that time, local spread of Omicron took off, and travellers no longer mattered much.
SmartSelect_20220118-162118_Samsung Notes.jpg
Content from External Source
 

Ravi

Senior Member.
Yeah. We do analyst like this at the institution I work for. The Omicron infection rate seems high, but the kill rate is meager. I think there will be no one left without the virus with this variant.

It has been shown indeed that there is no escape from Omicron. It is ridiculously contagious.

But then there is always the people that go "yeah but what IF we get a worse variant!!1!".. So we continue for ever.
 

Agent K

Senior Member
It has been shown indeed that there is no escape from Omicron. It is ridiculously contagious.

But then there is always the people that go "yeah but what IF we get a worse variant!!1!".. So we continue for ever.
Easy prediction that there will be more variants of concern. Professor Nicholas Christakis joked that the Greek alphabet has too few letters.

Article:

Time to learn more Greek letters: Omicron won't be last worrisome COVID variant, scientists say

Viruses don't always get less deadly over time.
By Laura Ungar, AP Science Writer

"The faster omicron spreads, the more opportunities there are for mutation, potentially leading to more variants," Leonardo Martinez, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Boston University, said.

Experts say the virus won't become endemic like the flu as long as global vaccination rates are so low.
 

econ41

Senior Member
Findings are similar to the similar meta analysis of influenza vaccine trials a few years ago: lots of adverse effects (especially ones like headache and fatigue) are reported by the recipients of placebo trial doses. :)
Yes. Managing issues of perception - including the so-called "psychosomatic" effects - is a major reason for double-blind trials including placebo "treatments".
 

Ann K

Active Member
useful link (wish US was more up to date) as we can easily look in our age groups when making booster decisions. thanks!
"Your age group" is only one factor. Why not have consideration for those in more at-risk populations with whom you might come in contact? You can spot obesity or advanced age without too much trouble, but many people appear to be in good health yet suffer from confounding conditions that are not obvious. We are fortunate to have vaccines and boosters. It's tragic that some people don't want to take advantage of them.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Why not have consideration for those in more at-risk populations with whom you might come in contact?
properly fitted [surgical or n95] masks are more important than boosters for that. Everyone needs to assume they might be contagious at any time.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
properly fitted [surgical or n95] masks are more important than boosters for that.
that's not how that works
protections multiply

someone who practices
• distancing
• N95 mask
• boosted
is less likely to be infected and to infect others than someone who only does
• distancing
• N95 mask
and if "protection against symptomatic disease" is a proxy for transmissibility, then the difference is more than 2-fold
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Interesting meta analysis recently published about the frequency of adverse events reported by the patients of placebo wings of covid vaccine trials: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2788172?
Article:
After the first dose, however, the group differences for most systemic AEs were small. Headache, fatigue, malaise, and joint pain were common in both groups and seem to have been particularly associated with nocebo. [...]

Common nonspecific symptoms such as headache and fatigue, which the study’s findings showed to be particularly associated with nocebo, are listed among the most common AEs after COVID-19 vaccination in many information leaflets.
52-54 There is evidence that this sort of information may increase nocebo mechanisms such as AE-related anxiety and expectations.17 Furthermore, the information might cause a misattribution of commonly experienced nonspecific symptoms (eg, headache or fatigue55) as specific AEs due to vaccination, even if these symptoms might have occurred in the absence of receiving any treatment.56 Thus, the current way of informing the public about potential vaccine AEs via leaflets and in the media may prompt or further increase nocebo responses.30 Nonetheless, it is ethically necessary to fully inform participants about the vaccines’ potential AEs. Emergent data suggest that full disclosure and education about nocebo responses may be helpful.19,20 For example, adding simple but accurate information about nocebo responses to the usual informed consent procedure (eg, “participants in the placebo arm of the randomized clinical trials testing this intervention reported similar AEs, probably because of worry and anxiety”) helped reduce medication-related AEs in a clinical population.20 Highlighting the probability of not experiencing AEs might also be beneficial.21 Although more research on these communication strategies is needed, such honest information adds to full disclosure and is unlikely to cause harm. In addition, informing the public about the potential for nocebo responses may help reduce worries about COVID-19 vaccination, which might decrease vaccination hesitancy.9,31
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
and if "protection against symptomatic disease" is a proxy for transmissibility,
it's not. asymptomatic people can spread the disease.

someone who practices
• distancing
• N95 mask
• boosted
is less likely to be infected and to infect others than someone who only does
• distancing
• N95 mask
that is only true on a global epidemiologic scale.

that is one of the reasons people are giving up: Nothing is ever good enough.
 

FatPhil

Senior Member.
that's not how that works
protections multiply

someone who practices
• distancing
• N95 mask
• boosted
is less likely to be infected and to infect others than someone who only does
• distancing
• N95 mask
and if "protection against symptomatic disease" is a proxy for transmissibility, then the difference is more than 2-fold

The "less" ratio need not be identical in the "to be infected" and "to infect others" cases. Just from the summaries that fly past weekly in the popular press, so to be taken with a pinch of salt, the "to be infected" seems to be a starker ratio than the "to infect others" one. In which case, the selfish argument is stronger than the "don't kill grandma" one presently.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
In which case, the selfish argument is stronger than the "don't kill grandma" one presently.
but we aren't talking about grandma, who has pretty good protection against omicron from severe outcomes. we are talking about 50 year old women with cancer or children with leukemia.

the 50 year old woman with cancer standing in line at the grocery store doesn't much care about "less" percentages or global arguments. either the person behind her is transmissible, or they are not. ie. wear a properly fitted adequate mask.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
asymptomatic people can spread the disease.
pre-symptomatic, yes
asymptomatic, I haven't seen evidence of that, and doubt they shed as much virus as (pre-]symptomatic people do
Nothing is ever good enough.
not true in this case
hygiene, physical distancing, reducing contacts, wearing masks in public enclosed spaces or when not able to distance, and getting vaccinated and boosted is definitely good enough
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
The "less" ratio need not be identical in the "to be infected" and "to infect others" cases. Just from the summaries that fly past weekly in the popular press, so to be taken with a pinch of salt, the "to be infected" seems to be a starker ratio than the "to infect others" one. In which case, the selfish argument is stronger than the "don't kill grandma" one presently.
I'm not following. If I'm less likely to be infected, I'm also less likely to infect others, since the former is a prerequisite for the latter. I believe that the severity of the infection (and my behaviour) determines how many other people I endanger.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
the 50 year old woman with cancer standing in line at the grocery store doesn't much care about "less" percentages or global arguments.
she should, though
she's safer in a community with fewer sick people
masks aren't perfect
 
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