COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

[Mendel]

More on this not-quite-current event:

This message featuring a Red Cross nurse and prevention instructions appeared in the U.S. publication Illustrated Current News in 1918.
Source: The National Library of Medicine. Images from the History of Medicine Collection

There was no vaccine at all at the time.
Influenza is different from Covid in that there are some very different strains around, and depending on which generation got exposed to what, you can have some cross-immunity in parts of the population. So it's possible (though I'd need to read up on that) that stopping the Spanish Flu took advantage of some existing immunity; but we don't seem to have that with Covid.

Covid spreads more easily than flu, and emergent strains get better at spreading (omicron is expected to spread faster than delta):

Article:

The Delta variant is now replacing all other SARS-CoV-2 variants. We found a mean R0 of 5.08, which is much higher than the R0 of the ancestral strain of 2.79. Rapidly ramping up vaccine coverage rates while enhancing public health and social measures is now even more urgent and important.

Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34369565/

R0 for the Spanish flu way around 2 in cities, and probably less in rural areas that weren't as well connected as modern life is now. It required less of the population to be immune to stop spreading.

Also, influenza has a very strong seasonality, meaning it spread very little in summer, which helped to get rid of it.

 

[deirdre]

Also, influenza has a very strong seasonality, meaning it spread very little in summer, which helped to get rid of it.

Article:

This first wave was comparatively mild and had begun to die down in some areas, but a second, more lethal wave began about August or September 1918. During this wave, pneumonia often developed quickly, with patients usually dying just two days after experiencing the first symptoms of the flu. As social distancing measures were enforced, the second wave began to die down toward the end of November.

Source: https://www.britannica.com/story/how-long-did-the-flu-pandemic-of-1918-last

 

[NoParty]

There's a long list of issues I don't personally view as political (like medicine) but the real
world keeps arguing otherwise: A sobering fact-based analysis by NPR. Worth a few minutes.

"Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden."
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...isinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

 

[Mendel]

There's a long list of issues I don't personally view as political (like medicine) but the real
world keeps arguing otherwise: A sobering fact-based analysis by NPR. Worth a few minutes.

April 8, 2020, WHO press briefing:

Article:

"The focus of all political parties should be to save their people," Tedros said. He added that politicizing the virus only exploits differences at the national level.

"If you want to be exploited and if you want to have many more body bags, then you [politicize the virus]," the WHO leader said. "If you don't want many more body bags, then you refrain from politicizing it."

"If we care about our people, if we care about our citizens," Tedros said, "please work across party lines, across ideology, across beliefs, across any differences, for that matter. We need to behave. That's how we can defeat this virus."

Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829944795/please-don-t-politicize-this-virus-who-head-says-after-trump-threatens-funding

I watched that as a livestream back then, and even though Tedros didn't point at anyone, I thought of a few governments that were the reason why he said it. Covid isn't the first epidemic that some country has politicized, so the WHO was speaking from tragic experience there. I remember him saying that politicizing Covid helps the virus, and I remember thinking that the people who didn't want to listen to this were the ones pushing (political) anti-WHO propaganda.

"Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden."
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...isinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

I first thought, "maybe it's because of age demographics", but no:

Notes​

Circle sizes reflect population. Vaccination rates are percent of 18+ population vaccinated. Death rates are new COVID-related deaths since May 1. Averages are weighted by county population. The overall average represents the average of the 3,011 counties included in the analysis. "Heavily Trump" indicates a county that voted for Trump at 60% or more. "Heavily Biden" indicates a county that voted for Trump at 40% or less. Data is as of Nov. 30.
Credit: Daniel Wood/NPR

Content from External Source

Age should also boost the vaccination rate, but it doesn't.

 

[deirdre]

There's a long list of issues I don't personally view as political (like medicine) but the real
world keeps arguing otherwise: A sobering fact-based analysis by NPR. Worth a few minutes.

"Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden."
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...isinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

are you TRYING to jinx us democrat areas as we enter winter with omnicron? i'm going to knock on wood for your cmment.

 

[deirdre]

and I remember thinking that the people who didn't want to listen to this were the ones pushing (political) anti-WHO propaganda.

really? because you aren't anti-WHO and yet you arent behaving.

ask yourselves why communities of color finally started to up their vaccination rates. was it because they were incessantly mocked and belittled in the media and on Metabunk? Was it?

If you arent part of the solution, then you are part of the problem.

 

[deirdre]

this is the third ive read about from possibly that anime convention. smh. although most pics show most people wearing masks. i wonder if they had a kissing booth.

(mild illness though, he was vaccinated)

Article:

The person who tested positive was a man in his 60s in Hartford County, who may have been infected by a family member who attended the Anime NYC convention in New York, according Gov. Ned Lamont’s office.

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/connecticut-records-first-confirmed-case-of-omicron-variant-of-covid-19/ar-AARtsaE?ocid=msedgntp

Article:

Everyone who attended the convention was required to show proof of vaccination. The Minnesota man who tested positive was not only fully vaccinated, he also had a booster shot. He is said to have had only mild symptoms.

Source: https://www.insideedition.com/2nd-us-case-of-omicron-variant-found-in-minnesota-man-who-attended-nyc-anime-convention-71674

 

[qed]

South Africa is about to be hit very hard by it's fourth wave.

On Monday three adults in my team reported Covid kids, yesterday my boy got it, and today my brother's two kids have it. Us particular adults are vaxed. But most South Africans are not, and for much the same reason Americans are not getting vaxed.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

 

[Mendel]

South Africa is about to be hit very hard by it's fourth wave

The slope on that wave looks scary. With a vaccination rate <30%, your medical system is going to have an intense next two months.

 

[qed]

The vax is and has been available to everyone here! But...

 

[econ41]

Even allowing for the 2.3 times population difference the Australian stats are very different.

 

[Mendel]

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases allows comparisons on a free selection of countries and many different data sets.

 

[econ41]

@Mendel - I've been following the ourworldindata starts comparing US, UK with AU, NZ. And musing on the factors which have led to the relative success of AU, NZ, Island status, easy to "lock the doors); Small population - more scattered than other countries; Political stability - both have bi-partisan support for COVID strategy. NZ a single state, AU a federation but only 8 "states". Both AU & NZ able to push "lock downs" a lot harder than some other countries >> But "we" had no big surge until delta. Those early choices to "lock the gates" seem to have had long term benefits for both NZ and AU. If we set aside economic issues for now. But I suspect small population and political stability are the significant factors. Haven't given it any in-depth thought. Cultural acceptance - the willingness of the population to tolerate hard lock downs also important and possible drove high acceptance of vaccination - my state is 92.9% fully vaxed adults as per yesterday's reports despite the late start after Australia stuffed up the vax supply logistics for several months.

 

[Mendel]

That said, the above is theory; researchers are working right now to look at it in reality to confirm all of this for the new variant.

We're getting some lab data in on how well existing antibodies work on omicron; the answer is "not well". It looks like vaccinations won't help most people not get infected, but they may still help make symptoms less severe - we don't know that yet because you can't find that out in the lab.
We're going to want new vaccines (expected by March, maybe) and new monoclonal antibodies. Oh, and boosting still improves your chances, especially since Delta is still predominant pretty much everywhere.

Article:

Due to numerous mutations in the spike protein, the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron (B.1.1.529) raises serious concerns since it may significantly limit the antibody-mediated neutralization and increase the risk of reinfections. While a rapid increase in the number of cases is being reported worldwide, until now there has been uncertainty about the efficacy of vaccinations and monoclonal antibodies. Our in vitro findings using authentic SARS-CoV-2 variants indicate that in contrast to the currently circulating Delta variant, the neutralization efficacy of vaccine-elicited sera against Omicron was severely reduced highlighting T-cell mediated immunity as essential barrier to prevent severe COVID-19. Since SARS-CoV-2 Omicron was resistant to casirivimab and imdevimab, genotyping of SARS-CoV-2 may be needed before initiating mAb treatment. Variant-specific vaccines and mAb agents may be required to treat COVID-19 due to Omicron and other emerging variants of concern.

To evaluate the protective capacity, antibody-mediated neutralization efficacy against authentic SARS-CoV-2 Omicron was determined in vitro using an isolate obtained from a double 1273-mRNA-vaccinated travel returnee from Zimbabwe and compared to Delta.

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.07.21267432v2

 

[Mendel]

I haven't been able to independently verify this item:

Article:

The Cass County Commission passed a resolution Friday which ended the enforcement of COVID-19 related measures and limited the authority of the county’s public health director.
The resolution comes at a time when a growing number of health departments across Missouri are ending their COVID-19 response after Attorney General Eric Schmitt demanded the agencies comply with a court ruling that appears to severely limit the authority of local health officials.

In the resolution, the Cass County Commission said it “believes in the importance of individual freedom” and that “no resident should be forced to quarantine or isolate” due to COVID-19.

The resolution says the Cass County public health director cannot force a person who has tested positive for COVID-19 to isolate or force a close contact of a person who has the virus to quarantine. It also says that any person who is currently in quarantine or isolation “can be released.”

Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article256518601.html

Article:

Source: https://www.casscounty.com/2450/COVID-19

 

[deirdre]

I haven't been able to independently verify this item:

not sure what there is to verify, sounds like typical American law stuff to me. The will of the people ie. elected officials, and all that jazz.

Article:

In November, attention initially focused on how Green’s ruling effectively stopped local health officials from issuing quarantine and other orders absent approval from a local governing body.

Source: https://www.kansascity.com/article256483746.html

Read more at: https://www.kansascity.com/article256483746.html#storylink=cpy


edit: @Mendel just curious, what is Germany doing about school children? are you guys quarantining hundreds of kids for 2 weeks if one child gets a positive test? (cause some school districts here are doing that)

 

[Mendel]

what is Germany doing about school children? are you guys quarantining hundreds of kids for 2 weeks if one child gets a positive test?

Germany is not doing that great overall right now, so possibly this isn't a good example to follow.
Measures vary by state, and over time.
Typically, students get tested 3 times a week. My states mandates self-tests for 2 weeks after the winter holidays, before the kids leave the house in the morning. Classroom masks, ventilation etc. are also mandated.
If a kid is infected, typically close contacts would also be quarantined; some states automatically quarantine the whole class when there's 4 cases; I believe the local health authorities would have the last word.
A German school class typically stays together as a group of 20-30 students during the day, while in the US, the student groups would vary during the day, so if we're quarantining a "class", that's just that small group, and not everyone in the same grade.

 

[Mendel]

My county health officials closed an elementary school yesterday when they learned that one child had a confirmed omicron diagnosis; they've since found more cases among the pupils.
A pre-Kindergarten was also closed on suspicion, and a Kindergarten group was quarantined. (That Kindergarten had separated its kids, so the other group is still meeting.)

The RKI (German CDC equivalent) recommends for all contacts of diagnosed omicron cases to quarantine, including double and triple vaccinated people, local health authorities will mandate that.

My state is going to level 3 restrictions (maximum) for Dec 24th-Jan 2nd.

 

[Mendel]

Article:

Remarks by President Biden After Meeting with Members of the COVID-⁠19 Response Team

For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm.

But there’s good news: If you’re vaccinated and you had your booster shot, you’re protected from severe illness and death — period.

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/12/16/remarks-by-president-biden-after-meeting-with-members-of-the-covid-19-response-team/

Today's Covid Task Force briefing should show the data this is based on.

Personally, I think he's exaggerating a little; we'll see by how much in a few months.
I believe many/most hospitals will be overwhelmed, and there'll be a disproportionate amount of unvaccinated among the hospitalized and dead of Covid.

 

[derwoodii]

not good news from down under,, we had pretty much controlled the numbers over passed months and in process of lifting restrictions when we get a infection spike and run with connections to the O variant.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12...-conference-omicron-vaccine-borders/100707284

Here are the key events from Friday.

• The remote Northern Territory town of Tennant Creek has been put into lockdown until 5pm on Monday
• Masks are becoming mandatory again in many outdoor and public locations across Queensland
• Western Australia has tightened the state's border rules for people travelling from Queensland and Tasmania

Content from External Source

 

[econ41]

not good news from down under,, we had pretty much controlled the numbers over passed months and in process of lifting restrictions when we get a infection spike and run with connections to the O variant.

The rise in NSW total new cases is more than I anticipated 2213 yesterday - it has risen from the relatively stable 2-3-4 hundreds of the past couple of weeks. I think we have probably outlived the political acceptability of hard lockdowns. And with 94% fully vaxed adults - the pragmatics seems to be "live with it"...

 

[Mendel]

And with 94% fully vaxed adults - the pragmatics seems to be "live with it"...

Have you transitioned from watching case numbers to watching hospitalizations yet?

 

[econ41]

Have you transitioned from watching case numbers to watching hospitalizations yet?

Personally or Government Official Reporting?

I've not been watching or analysing numbers or comparing stats for several weeks. Just monitoring the State Govt daily reports - which are snapshots and need a bit of processing to determine trends. Today's daily report - State population is ~8.2 million:



I also watch the comparisons US, UK, AU, NZ - that upward spike in AU is my current bit of concern.

 

[deirdre]

that's alot of tests! wow.

 

[econ41]

that's a lot of tests! wow.

I've been a bit surprised at how willingly compliant Aussies seem to have been throughout the pandemic. Tolerance of hard lock-downs and getting tested are just two of the issues. And, yes, we do have a manic fringe of "my rights" and "anti-vax" types. But their influence seems to have been far less than even I would have expected... I've never been tested so far. My wife once as a mandatory requirement of her volunteer role transporting cancer patients for treatment.

 

[Mendel]

Personally or Government Official Reporting?

Officially. My state is watching the hospitalisation rate and the utilisation of ICU beds to automatically tighten regulations state-wide when things get worse. 7-day case numbers are also relevant on a county level.



German laboratories do ~1.7-1.9 million PCR tests per week right now. Either NSW tests about 7 times more per population, or the NSW number includes quick antigen tests?

Your vaccination rates are excellent, we don't even have 90% in the 60+ population :-(

 

[deirdre]

Your vaccination rates are excellent, we don't even have 90% in the 60+ population :-(

we barely have 90% over 60. it's the young people in NSwales that surprise me. 90% seems awfully high.

and our 65-74 at 100% -one shot- is bunk, i dont know what's happening there. they must be counting "snowbirds" who actually reside in Florida etc.
Connecticut dec 17th

 

[Mendel]

we barely have 90% over 60.

averaging your 65-74 and 75+
(240559+325600)/(277425+352819)=89.8%

 

[econ41]

Officially. My state is watching the hospitalisation rate and the utilisation of ICU beds to automatically tighten regulations state-wide when things get worse. 7-day case numbers are also relevant on a county level.

We don't appear to have any official concern about health system logistic overload. But our overall numbers are still 5 to 10 times lower than other countries.

German laboratories do ~1.7-1.9 million PCR tests per week right now. Either NSW tests about 7 times more per population, or the NSW number includes quick antigen tests?

I cannot confirm that official testing is anything other than PCR. There is a growing market and availability of rapid antigen self-test kits. How much they are used I don't know. I'm remote from areas where COVID infection is seen as a real daily threatening risk.

Your vaccination rates are exc ellent, we don't even have 90% in the 60+ population :-(

Subjectively I think a big factor can be attributed to frustrations with hard lock downs - ironically driven in part by logistic delays in the supply of vaccines. That was probably the only significant political glitch. We've seen strong political leadership, with bi-partisan agreement between our (effectively***) two main political parties. Very little political nonsense either way - a bit of ritual posturing. Rember only 8 states and only four seriously affected for most of the time of the pandemic. Add to that - also subjective assessment - but the majority of Aussies seem to have said "let's do the right thing - get vaccinated". Both the anti-vaxers and the"my rights" minorities would generally get ignored or laughed at. Only a couple of militant protests near-riots. Which naturally got attention on FaceBook CT type pages from some overseas persons who are more militant than mainstream Aussies.
.
.
*** It's a bit more complicated than just "Two Parties" that BUT the details don't matter. EXCEPT the presence of minority parties can be a factor in stability. I won't derail.

 

[derwoodii]

today NSW gets high (record) number

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12...ses-recorded-in-australian-nsw-cases/13682848

New South Wales has again broken a national coronavirus record with 2482 infections recorded today. That number is predicted to climb over the coming weeks.

Content from External Source

The NSW R reproduction value is over 2 now

My own state of Victoria is tracking higher as expected with vector setting restrictions eased some 4 week ago

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-18/victoria-covid-cases-deaths-omicron-delta-outbreak/100711016

The newly reported deaths bring the toll during the current outbreak up to 631, and there are 13,443 active COVID-19 cases across the state.

There are 384 people in hospital with COVID-19, of whom 84 are in intensive care and 43 are on a ventilator.

A further 38 cases remain in intensive care but have been cleared of COVID.

Yesterday there were 88,083 COVID tests done,

Content from External Source

 

[deirdre]

averaging your 65-74 and 75+
(240559+325600)/(277425+352819)=89.8%

yea but we had like 7,000 old people die before vaccines available. so i get 90.8% (granted the pop. numbers are taken from 2019, and like i said that 100% number is bunk..so...)

 

[Ann K]

I first thought, "maybe it's because of age demographics", but no:

Notes​

Circle sizes reflect population. Vaccination rates are percent of 18+ population vaccinated. Death rates are new COVID-related deaths since May 1. Averages are weighted by county population. The overall average represents the average of the 3,011 counties included in the analysis. "Heavily Trump" indicates a county that voted for Trump at 60% or more. "Heavily Biden" indicates a county that voted for Trump at 40% or less. Data is as of Nov. 30.
Credit: Daniel Wood/NPR

Content from External Source

Age should also boost the vaccination rate, but it doesn't.

Mendel mentions age, but remember that the nursing-home demographic was first to die in great numbers (proximity, age, other disabilities all contributing to that) but also the first to be vaccinated when it became available. For that reason, there needs to be some sort of cut-off date for any meaningful analysis, else the initial year of the virus skews the stats badly. I'm glad to see this chart states "since May 1", but one should be wary of studies that don't specify the date range.

 

[Mendel]

https://xkcd.com/2557

This plan may sound appealing to people who know a little about the immune system, but the drawbacks are clear to people who know a lot about the immune system and also to people who don't know anything about it.​

 

[econ41]

This plan may sound appealing to people who know a little about the immune system, but the drawbacks are clear to people who know a lot about the immune system and also to people who don't know anything about it.​

The ever-present problem. People looking for binary certainties >> "works" <> "Doesn't work" in a situation that involves multiple layers of interacting probabilities.

 

[Mendel]

The ever-present problem. People looking for binary certainties >> "works" <> "Doesn't work" in a situation that involves multiple layers of interacting probabilities.

That's not what the cartoon is about.

 

[derwoodii]

so its kicking off down here,, delta and O spreading to all states as we had pretty much opened up domestic travel last few weeks. the Gov it seems are taking the relaxed control it stance masks yes but no lockdowns, travel yes but with tests and registration events yes but less number booster shots yes etc etc.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12...st-updates-omicron-nsw-restrictions/100723968

COVID figures and press conference times

Content from External Source

NSW: 5,612 new COVID cases, 382 in hospital, 1 death

Victoria: 2,095 new COVID cases, 397 in hospital, 8 deaths

Content from External Source

I was looking up at a blue sky with many contrails this morning & musing the CT mob could say yup that signatures of vector bug spread..

 

[econ41]

so its kicking off down here,, delta and O spreading to all states as we had pretty much opened up domestic travel last few weeks. the Gov it seems are taking the relaxed control it stance masks yes but no lockdowns, travel yes but with tests and registration events yes but less number booster shots yes etc etc.

My wife and I have optimistically booked a paddle boat trip on the Murray River for April next.

And for the non-Aussies the Murray River is the state boundary between my State of New South Wales and derwoodii's state of Victoria. So if either State gets upset and re-introduces border controls.... There is a "cop-out" escape clause in the contract.

Yes, the NSW and Victorian state infection numbers are rising. But still much lower than some other countries. Not that it is a matter for comparisons.

 

[Mendel]

, the NSW and Victorian state infection numbers are rising. But still much lower than some other countries. Not that it is a matter for comparisons

Australian growth is exponential on the ourworldindata.org chart; and the logarithmic chart shows it's multiplying faster than it is in the UK or the US, so without countermeasures, Australia is going to overtake them. The time to stop this growth is now.

 

[deirdre]

Article:

Business Insider

Booster protection against symptomatic illness caused by the Omicron variant dropped by up to 25% within 10 weeks, new real-world data found — though it's not yet clear whether everyone may need further doses in 2022.

The UK Health Security Agency said protection against symptomatic COVID-19 caused by the variant dropped from 70% to 45% after a Pfizer booster for those initially vaccinated with the shot developed by Pfizer with BioNTech.

In the same analysis published on Thursday, the agency found the effectiveness of Moderna's booster paired with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine held at 70% to 75% for up to nine weeks, though not many people in the study received this regimen, which could affect the accuracy of the finding.

For those fully vaccinated with AstraZeneca's vaccine, booster effectiveness dropped from 60% to 35% with a Pfizer booster and to 45% with a Moderna booster after 10 weeks, the UKHSA said.

Eric Topol, the director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, tweeted on Thursday that the UK findings were a "replication" of what had been seen in Israel.

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/booster-shots-protect-against-symptomatic-omicron-infection-for-about-10-weeks-study-finds-which-could-mean-more-doses-for-some-in-2022/ar-AAS7m2P?ocid=msedgntp

 

[derwoodii]

Early days but it seems while cases numbers in OZ state NSW are going exponential deaths and hospitalization seem to be reducing.

Is this due to high Vax pop% vs the O variety lower harm ?

https://www.9news.com.au/national/c...tmas-day/7b97d3c5-6363-4c62-bb6a-18d327e9fe21

NSW cases have topped 6000, a day after mask rules were reintroduced.
The state has recorded 6288 new cases, in figures announced on Christmas Day.
Nobody has died, though there are 388 people in hospital including 52 in ICU.

Content from External Source