COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

NoParty

Senior Member.
Of course, we all knew Omicron would hit the U.S. eventually,
but--as a Californian--I'm especially unhappy about it being here.
Unless I'm reading this wrong, they aren't yet specifying where, precisely,
in the state this traveller from South Africa lives...but all the references about the
confirmation science are in the Bay Area (far from me near the Mexican border).
ETA: Person is SF resident.

https://www.latimes.com/california/...-confirms-first-omicron-variant-covid-19-case
 
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deirdre

Senior Member.
Of course, we all knew Omicron would hit the U.S. eventually,
but--as a Californian--I'm especially unhappy about it being here.
Unless I'm reading this wrong, they aren't yet specifying where, precisely,
in the state this traveller from South Africa lives...but all the references about the
confirmation science are in the Bay Area (far from me near the Mexican border).

https://www.latimes.com/california/...-confirms-first-omicron-variant-covid-19-case
it says San Francisco. your link.
 

DavidB66

Active Member
The UK Government was relatively slow in banning travel from India when the Delta variant was starting out, and the usual 'experts' claimed the delay was responsible for the rapid spread of the variant in the UK. Hundreds of people got on planes to London before the ban came into force, bringing lots of Delta with them. But there was also the factor that the UK has a large ethnic South Asian population, and the initial growth was mainly in areas where they are concentrated.

This time round the govt has been quick in banning travel from southern Africa. The main argument in support of the ban is not that it will prevent the spread of the Omicron variant, but that it will slow it down and give more time for booster jabs to be given to people who have not already had them. Boosters (3rd doses) are being made available to all adult age groups, and are currently being given to over 300,000 people a day, which is about 1% of the relevant population (adults who have not already had a booster). At that rate even a delay of 2 weeks in the spread of the variant would enable a big increase in the proportion of people given a booster before they are exposed to Omicron.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
which is what i said.
you wrote "most travel bans dont refer to people coming home" which I understood as meaning that they don't make exceptions for them. (The bans refer to residents when they specify the exceptions.)

It would've been clearer to write, "most travel bans dont apply to people coming home."
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
you wrote "most travel bans dont refer to people coming home" which I understood as meaning that they don't make exceptions for them. (The bans refer to residents when they specify the exceptions.)

It would've been clearer to write, "most travel bans dont apply to people coming home."
or you could just assume i am not spreading misinformation, because i never do.
 

Landru

Moderator
Staff member
you wrote "most travel bans dont refer to people coming home" which I understood as meaning that they don't make exceptions for them. (The bans refer to residents when they specify the exceptions.)

It would've been clearer to write, "most travel bans dont apply to people coming home."
I understood what Deirdre meant. If there was confusion a request for clarification would be appropriate.
 

Fallingdown

Active Member
But you can't because you need trade, and you need to allow your citizens to come home, so testing and quarantine seems like superior strategy.

(Kinda like "abstinence education" in schools is correlated with higher teen pregnancy rates than teaching teens to use condoms.)

What are your thoughts on the general public?

To be specific lock downs
 
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Fallingdown

Active Member
I
Edit: "political policy decision" sound somewhat arbitrary; a law that's been in effect for decades isn't arbitrary, so I personally feel it shouldn't be called that.
At some point in time someone had to make a policy decision on the law for it to come into effect.

Policy decisions are those that determine how we will act in the future. How will we do this? What will guide our actions? A policy decision tells us how to make choices in order to act in alignment with our purposes and goals.

https://www.sociocracy.info/policy-decisions/
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Article:
Two cases were found in people based in Queens, one was in Brooklyn, and another was in Long Island’s Suffolk County, Hochul said at a briefing with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio. The last case is suspected as a traveler who was in New York City.


“We know we now have cases here in New York City, we have to assume that means there’s community spread, we have to assume that means we’re going to see a lot more cases,” de Blasio said.

At least five U.S. states have reported omicron cases, with Hawaii joining New York late Thursday in saying the variant had been detected. It also has been found in California, Colorado and Minnesota, which said that a resident who had traveled to an anime convention at Manhattan’s Javits Center tested positive.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
New study on "boosters" shows high immunity against very minor side effects.

https://thehill.com/changing-americ...-study-reveals-exactly-how-much-booster-shots

Article:
The study, published this week in the scientific journal the Lancet, looked at the immune response of nearly 3,000 people in the UK who received either one of seven COVID-19 boosters or a control booster two to three months after getting their second shot of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine.


i don't need a booster yet (under 6 months, not "old", not high risk), but im still looking for moderna booster numbers after 2 doses of moderna. March would be about 9 months for me...trying to decide if i should wait.

Article:
NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) could have a COVID-19 booster shot targeting the Omicron variant tested and ready to file for U.S. authorization as soon as March, the company's president said on Wednesday.
 

Fallingdown

Active Member
A big problem I have vaccine mandates. Is that the administration refuses to even discussed in depth natural immunity.

That science is ignored in the push to force everyone to get vaccinations.

Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or mass immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that can occur with some diseases when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity


herd immunity, also called community immunity, state in which a large proportion of a population is able to repel an infectious disease, thereby limiting the extent to which the disease can spread from person to person. [b{Herd immunity can be conferred through natural immunity, previous exposure to the disease, or vaccination. [/b]An entire population does not need to be immune to attain herd immunity. Rather, herd immunity can occur when the population densit of persons who are susceptible to infection is sufficiently low so as to minimize the likelihood of an infected individual coming in contact with a susceptible individual. Herd immunity can prevent sustained disease spread in populations, thereby protecting susceptible individuals from infection. It is applicable, however, only to infectious diseases that can be spread by human contact.
[/QUOTE]
https://www.britannica.com/science/herd-immunity

But despite a history of natural antibodies working. Just like with mask decades old medical practices are thrown out the window in 2020.

Edit;

In order to avoid misdirection I want to emphasize that anybody who hasn’t developed natural antibodies should get a vaccination.
 
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NoParty

Senior Member.
A big problem I have vaccine mandates. Is that the administration refuses to even discussed in depth natural immunity.

That science is ignored in the push to force everyone to get vaccinations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Since herd immunity can be achieved via vaccination with a whole lot less
dead Americans, why would you want leaders diluting the message with
inferior plans? Wouldn't that just make getting the vaccine-resistant
more stubborn?
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
In order to avoid misdirection I want to emphasize that anybody who hasn’t developed natural antibodies should get a vaccination.
and older people who had covid should get at least one dose right after recovery. older people often dont make anti bodie like young people do, even from the disease itself. that is science we all know from previous diseases.

also the more times you are exposed to a germ, the better your resistance becomes from severe symptoms. this is also science we all know from previous diseases.

*except if you got monoclonal antibody therapy with your covid, in which case teh CDC says wait 90 days and then get vaccinated.
 

Fallingdown

Active Member
Since herd immunity can be achieved via vaccination with a whole lot less
dead
I’m not advocating for people that haven’t had it to get it. Hence my point about if you haven’t been exposed get a vaccination.

“ A whole lot less dead“

The people that already have antibodies aren’t going to contribute to the death rate and the people that don’t have natural antibodies I have advised to get a vaccination. Which discredits that quote.

Currently there are 48.1 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US.

C5679A0C-07FA-4D0B-B2B3-729B65543088.png
The only way I know how to link this data is from the Google link and it appears in the first couple post.

https://www.google.com/search?q=How...BDE0LjKYAQCgAQGwAQA&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-hp

The CDC estimate of the flu burden is 146 million.

A648251A-DE85-4956-80C8-BF09D88AC063.png
https://www.google.com/search?q=Vac...JgBAKABAbABAMABAQ&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp

Number number of people fully vaccinated is 196 million.

If you just include the 48.1 million people that have been infected and developed antibodies.

The herd immunity or Natural antibodies number would be 245,100,000 .

Using the figure of 340 million for the population of the US. 245,100,000 would be around 78% of the population fully vaccinated or with natural antibodies.

If we factor in the estimated flu burden because we know every case isn’t reported. It would be a lot higher.

I’m sure next we’re going to get into is the effectiveness of natural antibodies vs vaccinations

I’m ready
 

Landru

Moderator
Staff member
If natural antibodies are effective who cares if a new mutation is vaccine resistant.

All that does is prove the point that natural immunity working.
Natural antibodies (a misnomer) are not as effective. https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/covid-19-studies-natural-immunity-versus-vaccination

Natural immunity alone is weak​

One study compared natural immunity alone to natural immunity plus vaccination. They found that, after infection, unvaccinated people are 2.34 times likelier to get COVID-19 again, compared to fully vaccinated people. So vaccinated people (after infection) have half the risk of reinfection than people relying on natural immunity alone.
 

Fallingdown

Active Member
and older people who had covid should get at least one dose right after recovery. older people often dont make anti bodie like young people do, even from the disease itself. that is science we all know from previous diseases.
Sounds reasonable but I’d have yet to see a study. Can you provide a link?
also the more times you are exposed to a germ, the better your resistance becomes from severe symptoms. this is also science we all know from previous diseases.
I don’t understand that point. Are you saying natural immunity‘s don’t work or last.


A Michigan Medicine study found that most patients with mild COVID-19 infections produce antibodies that persist and protect them from reinfection for up to six months.

Researchers analyzed nearly 130 subjects with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 illness between three and six months after initial infection. Three patients were hospitalized while the rest were treated as outpatients and experienced mild infection, with symptoms including headaches, chills and loss of taste or smell.

The study only lasted six months and produce antibodies that persist and protect them from reinfection. If they lasted the entire six-month study you can be sure they continued lasting after the six month deadline.


https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/lab-...fection-risk-for-up-to-six-months-study-finds

As for producing antibodies there’s this.

Long-lived bone marrow plasma cells (BMPCs) are a persistent and essential source of protective antibodies1,2,3,4,5,6,7. Individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 have a substantially lower risk of reinfection with SARS-CoV-28,9,10. Nonetheless, it has been reported that levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 serum antibodies decrease rapidly in the first few months after infection, raising concerns that long-lived BMPCs may not be generated and humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2 may be short-lived11,12,13. Here we show that in convalescent individuals who had experienced mild SARS-CoV-2 infections (n = 77), levels of serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S) antibodies declined rapidly in the first 4 months after infection and then more gradually over the following 7 months, remaining detectable at least 11 months after infection. Anti-S antibody titres correlated with the frequency of S-specific plasma cells in bone marrow aspirates from 18 individuals who had recovered from COVID-19 at 7 to 8 months after infection. S-specific BMPCs were not detected in aspirates from 11 healthy individuals with no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We show that S-binding BMPCs are quiescent, which suggests that they are part of a stable compartment. Consistently, circulating resting memory B cells directed against SARS-CoV-2 S were detected in the convalescent individuals. Overall, our results indicate that mild infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces robust antigen-specific, long-lived humoral immune memory in humans.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4

At last count I have 62 studies backing my
position that natural antibodies are superior.

I’m sure you have many studies to counter mine . Which bring brings me back to my statement. There’s obviously a discussion to be had and it’s not settled science. So why won’t the administration even entertain that discussion?


That in itself speaks of the of disingenuous position and an ulterior motive.

I’m not posting on this thread to convince everyone they are wrong. I understand the flutility of attempting that.

The main point I’m trying to get across is people should be questioning the administration’s stance not parroting it

There are a lot of holes in Fauci and Biden stances.

But when you bring them up here the reception reminds me of the legend of the rhinoceros arbitrarily stamping out fires.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
The CDC estimate of the flu burden is 146 million.

no it isnt. where are you getting that data? if you cant post proper links perhaps you shouldnt post at all.

Article:
To estimate the number of flu illnesses that occur in the United States each year, CDC uses mathematical modeling in combination with data from traditional flu surveillance systems. CDC estimates that from 2010 to 2020, flu has resulted in between 9 million and 41 million illnesses annually in the United States.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Can you provide a link?
yes. but why dont you just google it, since it is well established science.
I don’t understand that point. Are you saying natural immunity‘s don’t work or last.
i'm saying the more often you are exposed to a specific germ, the better your body is able to fight the next time you get the germ. because covid is "new", one infection is only 1 exposure.

The study only lasted six months and produce antibodies that persist and protect them from reinfection. If they lasted the entire six-month study you can be sure they continued lasting after the six month deadline.


https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/lab-...fection-risk-for-up-to-six-months-study-finds
you are cherry picking your own source

it also says:
Article:
Meanwhile, they concluded that individuals with COVID-19 can delay vaccination for 90 days after infection ends. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends those treated with monoclonal antibodies or convalescent plasma wait 90 days after receiving treatment before getting vaccinated, and others should wait until they have recovered from COVID-19 and "have met the criteria to discontinue isolation."


A study conducted in Kentucky that found that unvaccinated people who already had COVID-19 were 2.34 times more likely than fully vaccinated people to be infected again, suggesting “vaccination provides additional protection against reinfection.”

Additionally, the research was conducted between March 2020 and Feb. 2021, months before the highly transmissible Delta variant became the dominant strain of COVID in the United States.
 

Fallingdown

Active Member
I just posted two studies that refute your position.

And like I said I’ve got about 60 more.

We can do this all night.

I wanna ask you a question. It’s been proven that natural immunity works in the past and it should be added into the herd immunity count.

There was no large scale vaccination project for the 1918 Spanish flu. What do you think rained in that monster?

So are you claiming it’s different this go around? Every rule and procedure we followed prior to 2020 is wrong .

Even before all the studies are done which will take years. You can unequivocally say that this infection is different than any other infection in history?

And the preponderance of evidence for natural immunity‘s doesn’t stand up to this fear mongering one year of data collection?
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
@Fallingdown said
"There’s obviously a discussion to be had and it’s not settled science. So why won’t the administration even entertain that discussion?

That in itself speaks of the of disingenuous position and an ulterior motive."
Content from External Source

sorry i cant quote you properly as your formatting is messed up. I dont think it speaks to an ulterior motive. i think it speaks to an incompetent messaging team.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
I just posted two studies that refute your position.
no you did not. you posted 2 studies that show natural infection produce antibodies. everyone already knows that.

Landru (and most of the science, if not ALL of the science) said (paraphrase) vaccines are better.
 

Landru

Moderator
Staff member
I just posted two studies that refute your position.

And like I said I’ve got about 60 more.

We can do this all night.

I wanna ask you a question. It’s been proven that natural immunity works in the past and it should be added into the herd immunity count.

There was no large scale vaccination project for the 1918 Spanish flu. What do you think rained in that monster?

So are you claiming it’s different this go around? Every rule and procedure we followed prior to 2020 is wrong .

Even before all the studies are done which will take years. You can unequivocally say that this infection is different than any other infection in history?

And the preponderance of evidence for natural immunity‘s doesn’t stand up to this fear mongering one year of data collection?
You cherry picked your quotes as Deirdre pointed out. The study I linked is refered to by your study. You also add covid infected people to the total number of immunized people which is not correct. There are people who have had covid and have received a vaccine.
 

Fallingdown

Active Member
You cherry picked your quotes as Deirdre pointed out. The study I linked is refered to by your study. You also add covid infected people to the total number of immunized people which is not correct. There are people who have had covid and have received a vaccine.
I didn’t read her post. I decided to concentrate on one person in at a time.



So you’re telling me you’re study proves absolutely that natural antibodies are useless. End of discussion?

Correct?
 

Landru

Moderator
Staff member
I didn’t read her post. I decided to concentrate on one person in at a time.



So you’re telling me you’re study proves absolutely that natural antibodies are useless. End of discussion?

Correct?
No that is not what I said. Do not paraphrase. The study I posted (and referred to by the study you posted) said

... people who already had COVID-19 were 2.34 times more likely than fully vaccinated people to be infected again, suggesting “vaccination provides additional protection against reinfection.”
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
@Fallingdown your first abstract there (i cant access the paper and i doubt you can either) in your deleted comment, does not say what you are claiming it says.

Go look over in Israel, you'll come closer to posting something that might actually back your position.
 

Fallingdown

Active Member
No that is not what I said.
Which brings me back to my point. if it’s not the end of discussion . Why isn’t everyone involved in this discussion nationally right now?

If herd immunity and the safety of the public is the main concern.

Why does The media shut it down and the Biden administration avoided at all cost.

Why does Facebook and Twitter censor discussions on the topic under the label of misinformation. When there’s 100 years of data behind natural immunity and conflicting studies .

My labeling it miss information that is the definition of cherry picking studies.

This is from an article naming things you’re not allowed to post on Twitter.

It's safer to just get the disease rather than the vaccine.” Claims that building natural immunity is safer than vaccine-acquired immunity are barred.

Like with my global warming point. There is no way on earth they can prove that is accurate at this point in the pandemic.

What day cited is this information because of either personal preference or agenda.

https://www.aarp.org/health/conditi...cebook-blocks-coronavirus-misinformation.html


I’ll end this discussion with a question.

If safety is the main concern and herd immunity is the main goal.

Do you think with the science backing it.

Natural antibodies and their historically proven protection should get oh let’s say 10% of the discussions as Omicron doesn’t
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
This is from an article naming things you’re not allowed to post on Twitter.

It's safer to just get the disease rather than the vaccine.” Claims that building natural immunity is safer than vaccine-acquired immunity are barred.
This is just a silly claim. to the extreme.

it's not safer to get the disease rather than the vaccine. hospitalization and long term illness from the vaccine is much, much rarer than hospitalization, and long term illness from the disease. and we also have no concrete cases of death from the vaccine.
 

Landru

Moderator
Staff member

Mendel

Senior Member.
im still looking for moderna booster numbers after 2 doses of moderna.
The recommendation I hear is that cross-boosting gives slightly better results (i.e. combining Pfizer primary with Moderna booster, or vice versa), but I don't believe the benefits justify deferring the booster shot.
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
I dislike it when "current events" blows up in discussion over an issue that's not even new.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
The recommendation I hear is that cross-boosting gives slightly better results (i.e. combining Pfizer primary with Moderna booster, or vice versa), but I don't believe the benefits justify deferring the booster shot.
i only heard that for the vaccines that had lower efficacy, like johnson and johnson or astra-zeneca. but that still doesn't answer my question.

(* i only pay attention to U.S, UK, israel and a little bit australia.. so my leaving out a low efficacy vax from the list, is not indicative of if they should be on my list. I just dont know their names or efficacies)
 

purpleivan

Member
There was no large scale vaccination project for the 1918 Spanish flu. What do you think rained in that monster?

As Spanish flu is estimated to have resulted in 50 million deaths at a time that the world population was only 1.8 billion (23% of currrent 7.9 billion), I'd hardly describe that as reigning it in.

At currently population, that rate have resulted in 219 million deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/

Obviously other factors are at play, such as improvements in medical science and care generally, but with studies clearly identifying vaccination as superior to herd immmunity, then you go with vaccincation, as that is our best method of defense.
 

FatPhil

Senior Member.
As Spanish flu is estimated to have resulted in 50 million deaths at a time that the world population was only 1.8 billion (23% of currrent 7.9 billion), I'd hardly describe that as reigning it in.

At currently population, that rate have resulted in 219 million deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/

Obviously other factors are at play, such as improvements in medical science and care generally, but with studies clearly identifying vaccination as superior to herd immmunity, then you go with vaccincation, as that is our best method of defense.

Indeed, healthcare has improved massively in the 100 years since then, at least in modern societies, so, for amusement only, let's run with that idea. Using that favourite "state of healthcare" statistic, and applying total guesswork, pushes us towards maternal mortality being many tens of times higher back then. (Inputs to my Fermi-guesstimation: was in the hundreds, now in single figures. The fact that there's a healthy order of magnitude between the best and the worst "modern societies" regarding this stat imply that there's plenty of fuzz in the figures.) But something like 40x seems believable?

I'm not saying that the Spanish Flu figures should be scaled down by that number to account for healthcare improvements, but you do get an interesting number when you do ;-) . (And of course that number's *bogus*, as I inserted "in modern societies" above, apples/oranges.)
 

Rory

Senior Member.
There was no large scale vaccination project for the 1918 Spanish flu. What do you think rained in that monster?

As Spanish flu is estimated to have resulted in 50 million deaths I'd hardly describe that as reigning it in.

According to this article in Time it ended because the virus "infected enough people that the world population no longer had enough susceptible people for the strain to become a pandemic again" and "with fewer susceptible people out and about and mingling [due to social distancing, mask wearing, school closures, quarantining and isolation, etc] there was nowhere for the virus to go - the 'herd immunity' being talked about today” (ie, people were either dead or immune or keeping out of the way - about a third of the world's population were infected back then, whereas today (confirmed cases, at least) we're at about a tenth of that).

(NB: reined in is a tricky one. Think horses' reins used to slow it down or hold it back. Queens and kings reign. And rain with an a is what comes from clouds.)
 
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