COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

deirdre

Senior Member.
You cited the common reasons why vaccines generally provide better protection against variation and evolution (viral or bacterial) than drugs. You did not cite evidence for why these common reasons wouldn't apply to Covid vaccines.

the current vaccines (good as they are) are only targeting one bit of the virus vs multiple bits.
Article:
In recent months, though, it’s become clear that the coronavirus is a slippery, shape-shifting foe—and spike appears to be one of its most malleable traits. Eventually, our first generation of spike-centric vaccines will likely become obsolete. To get ahead of that inevitability, several companies are already looking to develop new vaccine formulations packed with additional bits of the coronavirus, ushering in an end to our monogamous affair with spike. The potential perks of this tactic run the gamut: More vaccine ingredients could help the body identify more targets to attack, and loop in untapped reservoirs of immune cells that have no interest in spike. Multifaceted shots also up the ante for the virus, which can alter only so many aspects of its anatomy at once. “It’s like diversifying a portfolio,” William Matchett, a vaccinologist at the University of Minnesota who’s researching reformulated COVID-19 vaccines, told me.



and the current vax arent prophylactics. not sure i need a citation... prophylactic means you don't get it and you don't spread it. But we "think" (according to the cdc) there are break through infections and (again according to the cdc) they think vaccinated people can spread it.

Article:
A prophylactic is a medication or a treatment designed and used to prevent a disease from occurring.
 

CarolynD

New Member
Wow, thanks for sharing @Mauro - I am very slowly pulling myself out of that state, I've had it since forever. When they asked "have you ever passed out after an injection" my honest response was "no, but I've passed out *before* them, vomitted too" - even when being administered to other people. I can't even watch injections on medical TV programs (slasher horror movies, no problem, but one needle and I'm toast). I've been forcing myself to not turn away, it's got easier over time. I know it's irrational, and I know it can be overcome, and I'm a decent part of the way there.

I honestly felt like a big brave 6-year-old after my (single J&J) jab. In some ways it was utterly pathetic, but it's a step forwards. My nurse was excellent, even though, or perhaps because, she treated me like the big brave 6-year-old that I was. I walked away from the surgery with a smile and a warmth within that I was genuinely surpised by.
Medical phobias or no joke! After years of surgeries, tests, procedures, crappy diagnoses, misdiagnoses, chronic illness etc. I definitely have lab coat syndrome. One thing that has helped me get through my yearly brain MRIs is mindful breathing exercises. Sounds silly, but it works for me.
 

Agent K

Senior Member
the current vaccines (good as they are) are only targeting one bit of the virus vs multiple bits.
Article:
In recent months, though, it’s become clear that the coronavirus is a slippery, shape-shifting foe—and spike appears to be one of its most malleable traits. Eventually, our first generation of spike-centric vaccines will likely become obsolete. To get ahead of that inevitability, several companies are already looking to develop new vaccine formulations packed with additional bits of the coronavirus, ushering in an end to our monogamous affair with spike. The potential perks of this tactic run the gamut: More vaccine ingredients could help the body identify more targets to attack, and loop in untapped reservoirs of immune cells that have no interest in spike. Multifaceted shots also up the ante for the virus, which can alter only so many aspects of its anatomy at once. “It’s like diversifying a portfolio,” William Matchett, a vaccinologist at the University of Minnesota who’s researching reformulated COVID-19 vaccines, told me.



and the current vax arent prophylactics. not sure i need a citation... prophylactic means you don't get it and you don't spread it. But we "think" (according to the cdc) there are break through infections and (again according to the cdc) they think vaccinated people can spread it.

Article:
A prophylactic is a medication or a treatment designed and used to prevent a disease from occurring.
I read somewhere - I think in an interview with the Pfizer vaccine's inventor - that the mRNA vaccine targets multiple sites on the spike protein.

Old antibody tests looked for antibodies to the nucleocapsid instead of the spike protein, so vaccinated people would test negative while those who recovered from COVID-19 test positive. You'd think that the latter would be better protected because they have antibodies to multiple parts of the virus, but apparently they're not. You'd think that inactivated virus vaccines that use a dead virus like Sinopharm's vaccine would be more effective than mRNA vaccines for the same reason, but apparently they're not, although I haven't seen how they hold up against the delta variant.

Pfizer's vaccine prevented symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/06072021-04
https://www.washingtonpost.com/cont...fections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e
1628375310105.png
 
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deirdre

Senior Member.
that the mRNA vaccine targets multiple sites on the spike protein.
yea i read that too... at least for Moderna and Pfizer. I really haven't looked at all the other vax that came out around the world, or J&J.

I should have noted that in my above post.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
You'd think that the latter would be better protected because they have antibodies to multiple parts of the virus, but apparently they're not.

im just grabbing a random article, vs searching for a published paper, .. my PERSONAL thoughts is the vaccine is like 2 infections. the nurse told me the second dose is exactly the same amount as the 1st dose. and some studies showed that over 8o year olds (because that was the study group) had a better antibody response when the vax doses were given further apart. I think it's a thing that the more you catch something the better defenses you have against it, of course i worked with kids for years and years and caught the "kid plague" , as i called it, at least every year and never became immune :)

Article:
Studies have shown that people who have been infected can benefit significantly from vaccination. It gives them a strong, lasting immunity boost. After receiving the first dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, they have immunity levels comparable to those of uninfected people who have received their second dose.

We’re still trying to better understand why immunity lasts longer for some people than others. Underlying factors like obesity or age appear to play a role in how long immunity lasts.
 

Agent K

Senior Member
im just grabbing a random article, vs searching for a published paper, .. my PERSONAL thoughts is the vaccine is like 2 infections. the nurse told me the second dose is exactly the same amount as the 1st dose. and some studies showed that over 8o year olds (because that was the study group) had a better antibody response when the vax doses were given further apart. I think it's a thing that the more you catch something the better defenses you have against it, of course i worked with kids for years and years and caught the "kid plague" , as i called it, at least every year and never became immune :)

Article:
Studies have shown that people who have been infected can benefit significantly from vaccination. It gives them a strong, lasting immunity boost. After receiving the first dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, they have immunity levels comparable to those of uninfected people who have received their second dose.

We’re still trying to better understand why immunity lasts longer for some people than others. Underlying factors like obesity or age appear to play a role in how long immunity lasts.
MedCram's latest video was on "Delta Variant Versus Previous COVID 19 Infection vs. Vaccines"
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RWGh19yTXw


Referencing this study
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03777-9

And this figure

Article:
Fig. 2: Sensitivity of the SARS-CoV-2 variants D614G, Alpha, Beta and Delta to sera from convalescent individuals and vaccinated individuals.
Article:

Neutralization titres of the sera against the indicated viral isolates are expressed as ED50 values. a, Neutralizing activity of sera from the Strasbourg cohort of convalescent individuals (n = 26; left) and convalescent individuals who had been vaccinated (n = 21; right). Samples were collected at month 12 (M12) after the onset of symptoms. b, Neutralizing activity of sera from recipients of the Pfizer vaccine, sampled at week 3 (W3) after vaccination (n = 16; left) and week 8 (W8) after vaccination (week 5 after the second dose) (n = 16; right). c, Neutralizing activity of sera from recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine, sampled at week 10 (W10) after vaccination (n = 23; left) and week 16 (W16) after vaccination (week 4 after the second dose) (n = 20; right). The dotted line indicates the limit of detection (ED50 = 30). Data are mean from two independent experiments. A two-sided Friedman test with Dunn’s multiple comparison was performed between each of the viral strains.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
Coronavirus transmission among vaccinated people could raise the risk of an even more dangerous variant

The coronavirus could be "just a few mutations potentially away" from evolving into a variant that can evade existing COVID-19 vaccines, CDC director Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday.
According to research published Friday in the journal Scientific Reports, vaccinated people — counterintuitively — play a key role in that risk.
The best way to stop coronavirus deaths and severe illness is to roll out vaccines quickly. However, the researchers concluded that the chance a vaccine-resistant strain will emerge is highest in a scenario that combines three conditions: First, a large portion of a population is vaccinated, but not everyone. Second, there's a lot of virus circulating. And third, no measures are in place to curb potential viral transmission from vaccinated people.

Here's the study's abstract
Article:
Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
First, I don't understand why you cite this in response to my post. The model used in this study certainly does not suggest that the virus mutates any faster or differently for vaccinated people.

Generally, natural selection prefers mutations that replicate more efficiently; when nobody is vaccinated, that gives "more infectious" an advantage; but when you have many vaccinated people, "less infectious but can infect some vaccinated people" is better.

The rate of mutation is roughly proportional to how often the virus replicates, which kind of depends on how many individuals have light infections or severe infections. So vaccination definitely contributes to curbing mutations.

I am somewhat suspicious of the nature article, the authors are geneticists and computer scientists, with no epidemiologist or mathematician among them. The run a computer model off a range of assumptions, and get some sensitivity to initial values that is almost chaotic, i.e. close input values can have qualitatively very different end results in a somewhat unsystematic manner. They then identify some characteristics of the model which only transfer to the real world if their modified SIR model actually reflects the real world. I am especially suspicious of the result that resistant strains are more likely to emerge in a period of low transmission, when the overall mutation rate should be low.

Unless I've overlooked something, they haven't really used real-world data to evaluate the predictions of their model.

We'll see how that works out.
 

Mauro

Active Member
First, I don't understand why you cite this in response to my post. The model used in this study certainly does not suggest that the virus mutates any faster or differently for vaccinated people.

Generally, natural selection prefers mutations that replicate more efficiently; when nobody is vaccinated, that gives "more infectious" an advantage; but when you have many vaccinated people, "less infectious but can infect some vaccinated people" is better.

The rate of mutation is roughly proportional to how often the virus replicates, which kind of depends on how many individuals have light infections or severe infections. So vaccination definitely contributes to curbing mutations.

I am somewhat suspicious of the nature article, the authors are geneticists and computer scientists, with no epidemiologist or mathematician among them. The run a computer model off a range of assumptions, and get some sensitivity to initial values that is almost chaotic, i.e. close input values can have qualitatively very different end results in a somewhat unsystematic manner. They then identify some characteristics of the model which only transfer to the real world if their modified SIR model actually reflects the real world. I am especially suspicious of the result that resistant strains are more likely to emerge in a period of low transmission, when the overall mutation rate should be low.

Unless I've overlooked something, they haven't really used real-world data to evaluate the predictions of their model.

We'll see how that works out.
I have to agree with Mendel here. I have only read the abstracts of the two articles cited by AgentK, mind that, but as I understand them, they do not want to point out dangers in vaccines. The Nature article wholly support the vaccination drive, but they caution against policy dangers who could diminish the advantage given by vaccines.

As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3

Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased
(ibidem)

That is to say: fast vaccination is good, because it decreases the risk of dangerous variants. But there exist at least one scenario (with no attached probabilities) when, even with fast vaccinations, a higher risk is possible. Businessinsider realized that:

However, the researchers concluded that the chance a vaccine-resistant strain will emerge is highest in a scenario that combines three conditions: First, a large portion of a population is vaccinated, but not everyone. Second, there's a lot of virus circulating. And third, no measures are in place to curb potential viral transmission from vaccinated people.
https://www.businessinsider.com/cov...le-risk-of-resistant-variant-2021-7?r=US&IR=T

But then they went for a totally misleading title: Coronavirus transmission among vaccinated people could raise the risk of an even more dangerous variant

What the Nature article is actually concerned with is to warn against policy errors which can bring on the bad scenario:
  • Having some people not vaccinated. A difficult political (and social) problem. If I may give a suggestion, find a way at least to vaccinate those people who don't do it just out of injections phobia. In any case the article seems to imply the more the vaccinations the better.
  • There's a lot of virus circulating. Ditto as above. And ditto as below.
  • Even vaccinated people should wear masks and practice social distancing. Yet another difficult political and social problem.


The Nature article abstract concludes with:
Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
There's a lot of virus circulating. Ditto.
Note specifically that the authors distinguish between a virus strain "emerging" and one being "established", with 1000 people infected being the decision point. This distinction alone can account for the result that new strains are only established in high-transmission phases. (Their figures show that in their model, more actually"emerge" in low-transmission phases.) A more useful measure to count a strain as "established" would have been to consider the percentage of viruses that belong to that strain at any one time, with e.g. 5% or 15% set as the threshold; this would more accurately reflect the advantage that a particular strain has over competing strains.

Also note that the first article published in businessinsider is a comment on the study published in Nature that Agent K quoted. There's just the one study, not two.
 

Mauro

Active Member
Also note that the first article published in businessinsider is a comment on the study published in Nature that Agent K quoted. There's just the one study, not two.
You're pretty right, thank you! Post edited.
 

LilWabbit

Active Member
Viral mutations of SARS-CoV-2 outpacing and outsmarting current vaccine development is still a theory rather than a fact. But it is a well-founded epidemiological concern on the basis of the cautionary principle 'it's better to err on the side of caution'.

It's really the mutations of the spike protein rather than any other part of the SARS-CoV-2 virus particle that are of main concern due to the simple fact that it's the spikes that are "its key to fusing with human cells":

Article:
Worrying variants of SARS-CoV-2 tend to have mutations in the S1 subunit of the spike protein, which hosts the RBDs and is responsible for binding to the ACE2 receptor. (A second spike subunit, S2, prompts viral fusion with the host cell’s membrane.)


Hence, despite the worrying new variants, we're still on the safe side with the existing mRNA vaccines and their further development focused on various sites of the spike protein. And yet we cannot sit on our laurels. Here's a helpful image showing the various sites of the spike protein:

d41586-021-02039-y_19394010.png

Arguments for vaccine resistance and against vaccine effectiveness commonly ignore the uniqueness and novelty of mRNA vaccines. For instance, it's much simpler and faster to modify the mRNA vaccines to target variants than it is with conventional vaccines.

Article:
In fact, within days of the genetic code of the SARS-CoV-2 virus becoming available, the mRNA code for a candidate vaccine testing was ready. What’s most attractive is that once the mRNA vaccine tools become viable, mRNA can be quickly tailored for other future pandemics.


file-20201117-23-1joiln2.jpg.png
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
The Nature article wholly support the vaccination drive,
Everybody wholly supports the vaccination drive. Noone is saying "we should stop vaccinating because a vaccine resistant variant" might emerge.

I think business insider used "dangerous variant" to mean a vaccine resistant one. The old people are most at risk for high numbers of deaths and hospitalizations. But right now the vaccine is protecting them to a high degree. And hospitals are now full with unvaccinated people, we can't afford to add high numbers of of vaccinated old people into our hospitals too! so absolutely the vaccine we have is a miracle, but our scientists do need to keep working on improving it (like how Pfizer said they are trying to tweak the current vaccine to be more effective against Delta).
 

Alphadunk

Active Member
It's starting to look like there is increasing consensus among the science and medical fields that COVID is now endemic. The media, as a whole, seems a little hesitant to acknowledge this, as the ramifications are somewhat bleak and would be disappointing to many. It will be interesting to see if curtails on travel are here to stay, particularly in Europe where going on long "holidays" is very common. The more conspiratorial minded might say this is just another ploy to keep the peasants working nonstop!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexle...-here-to-stay-but-not-just-for-covid-reasons/

Robert West, a professor emeritus of health psychology at University College London said that “we have to understand that this virus is now endemic, and that we have to be thinking about our long-term strategies for dealing with it as a global phenomenon.”
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
as the ramifications are somewhat bleak
its only bad in the short term. Long term this is good for humanity, we will build up more natural immunity to SARS type viruses that could emerge much worse in the future. Considering what a crap world we are leaving to our grandkids, this is the least we can do for them.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
It's starting to look like there is increasing consensus among the science and medical fields that COVID is now endemic. The media, as a whole, seems a little hesitant to acknowledge this, as the ramifications are somewhat bleak
Mumps, measles, and influenza are endemic, but the ramifications aren't that bleak!

The thing that's deeply worrying is the emergence of a large main-stream political anti-vaccine movement.
To me, there are signs that there's going to be a problem with the health system having to care for people willfully not getting vaccinated that's going to need to be addressed somehow.
 
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derwoodii

Senior Member.
looking for a post

i recall a post regards uptake of vaccination in US Red vs Blue states but i cannot seem to find it ATM, if any one can help pls
 

Agent K

Senior Member
Mumps, measles, and influenza are endemic, but the ramifications aren't that bleak!

The thing that's deeply worrying is the emergence of a large main-stream political anti-vaccine movement.
To me, there are signs that there's going to be a problem with the health system having to care for people willfully not getting vaccinated that's going to need to be addressed somehow.
Measles is officially eliminated in the U.S., but influenza isn't.

Article:
The United States has maintained measles elimination status for almost 20 years.
While we expect importations of measles cases into the United States to continue, the risk for measles for the majority of the population would still remain low. That is because most people in the United States are vaccinated against measles.

There are occasional measles outbreaks in communities with low vaccination rates, but there's no measles season the way there's a flu season. There was hope that if COVID-19 isn't eradicated like SARS, it'll at least be eliminated like measles instead of becoming seasonal like influenza. Measles is much more contagious than influenza, but the measles vaccine remains highly effective, and immunity lasts for years instead of one year.
 
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derwoodii

Senior Member.
i do have to say, this (below) is ridiculous. there is no way i would stand in that line, that long, with a bunch of unvaccinated people to get a shot.

In America we have appointments, so it's in and out. (and -as long as you have a car- we can choose which vaccine we want)
australia:
1628086996093.png


Yeah we are a fair bit behind the times down here but glad to see we are catching up be it ever so slowly


Victoria launches first drive-through vaccination clinic, expands Astra Zeneca access to young
https://www.news.com.au/national/vi...s/news-story/2e60574501301649d3e790e6baa393f8

 

Mendel

Senior Member.
looking for a post

i recall a post regards uptake of vaccination in US Red vs Blue states but i cannot seem to find it ATM, if any one can help pls
"vaccine state red blue" is a useful google search if you are looking for data.
I don't think I can help you find the post.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
looking for a post

i recall a post regards uptake of vaccination in US Red vs Blue states but i cannot seem to find it ATM, if any one can help pls
heres a fairly recent list. ( 2 days ago. the google thing has higher numbers like Connecticut is 63.9 today
alabama up by .2
https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...entage-of-population-vaccinated-march-15.html

the top 21 states are blue.

to cross check i type in

8-8-2021 8-56-24 PM.jpg



and there are maps all over google that will show you red or blue states

1628470728007.png
 
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deirdre

Senior Member.
hhmm... this is the guy who helped eradicate smallpox. He is an epidemiologist . But this is a pretty specific claim, i've not seen anywhere else.

Article:
But in addition to boosting vaccination in countries with a low inoculation rate, Brilliant said one group of people needs a booster shot "right away" — those who are 65 years and above, and were fully vaccinated more than six months ago but have a weakened immune system.

"It is this category of people that we've seen create multiple mutations when the virus goes through their body," said the epidemiologist.
 

Agent K

Senior Member
hhmm... this is the guy who helped eradicate smallpox. He is an epidemiologist . But this is a pretty specific claim, i've not seen anywhere else.

Article:
But in addition to boosting vaccination in countries with a low inoculation rate, Brilliant said one group of people needs a booster shot "right away" — those who are 65 years and above, and were fully vaccinated more than six months ago but have a weakened immune system.

"It is this category of people that we've seen create multiple mutations when the virus goes through their body," said the epidemiologist.

He also said cases in India fell because the delta variant "basically runs out of candidates" to infect. What percent of India's population was infected?

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...rue&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~IND~GBR
1628484183272.png
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
He also said cases in India fell because the delta variant "basically runs out of candidates" to infect.
Larry Brilliant:
Article:
"But I do caution people that this is the delta variant and we have not run out of Greek letters so there may be more to come"

It makes me wonder if the 77-year-old epidemiologist is going senile, or if he's trying to "dumb things down" for an uninformed audience.

"Runs out of candidates" can be a simplification of "herd immunity", or of NPIs pushing the reproduction rate way below 1 (which has been the cause of epidemic waves ending so far).
 

Agent K

Senior Member
Larry Brilliant:
Article:
"But I do caution people that this is the delta variant and we have not run out of Greek letters so there may be more to come"

It makes me wonder if the 77-year-old epidemiologist is going senile, or if he's trying to "dumb things down" for an uninformed audience.

"Runs out of candidates" can be a simplification of "herd immunity", or of NPIs pushing the reproduction rate way below 1 (which has been the cause of epidemic waves ending so far).
If the delta variant really is as contagious as he says, with an R0=8, then herd immunity would need to be over 87.5%. So how did India get the reproduction rate below 1?

Article:
The Washington Post
3 days ago

Less than 10 percent of India’s population is fully vaccinated, and the country’s vaccine drive is rolling out slower than expected amid hesitancy and production woes.

In India, some experts say the sharp decline was a result of Indians staying at home...
Others attribute the falloff to the virus exhausting itself; it infected everyone it could.

Epidemiologists say a nationwide seroprevalence survey released in July, which checks blood samples for the presence of coronavirus antibodies, may offer clues about which regions will be susceptible. Two-thirds of the country’s population appeared to have antibodies after the spring wave, the study showed.

Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, who has been following the situation in India closely, said it is difficult to predict when and how the next wave will land. The delta variant appears to be so infectious that another wave can be prevented only if 80 to 90 percent of the population is vaccinated, he estimated.

Two-thirds of India's population was infected? 928 million people?! What percent of them died? Over 5.5 million people? If the virus infected everyone it could, why would there be another wave? If it didn't infect everyone it could, why did cases drop? Something doesn't add up.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Two-thirds of India's population was infected? 928 million people?! What percent of them died? Over 5.5 million people?
Well, around that, apparently.
Article:
Researchers from the US-based Center for Global Development used three different data sources to estimate India's excess all-cause mortality during the pandemic until 21 June.

They extrapolated death registrations from seven states, accounting for half of India's population. India conducts yearly mortality surveys but has only published numbers up to 2019.

Second, the researchers applied international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates - the number of people that die from the virus - to data from two countrywide antibody tests, also called sero surveys.

Third, they looked at India's consumer survey of 868,000 individuals across 177,000 households which also records whether any member of the family had died in the past four months.

Taken together, the researchers found that excess deaths were estimated to be in the range of 3.4 million to 4.7 million - about 10 times higher than India's official Covid-19 death toll.

So there may not be much of a fourth wave in India, but of course there could be one elsewhere.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
He also said cases in India fell because the delta variant "basically runs out of candidates" to infect
well he said
Article:
Brilliant said his models on the Covid outbreak in San Francisco and New York predict an "inverted V-shape epidemic curve." That implies that infections increase very quickly, but would also decline rapidly, he explained.

If the prediction turns out be true, it means that the delta variant spreads so quickly that "it basically runs out of candidates" to infect, explained Brilliant.

There appears to be a similar pattern in the U.K. and India, where the spread of the delta variant has receded from recent highs.


New York didnt run out of candidates statewide or citywide, and no vaccines back then. It also wasn't delta. or even Alpha.

NY locked down and masked up. In NY the bulk of spread was 1. in nursing homes, but 2. in family homes between family members. which is more akin to the localized ring immunity which was the tactic they used to eradicate smallpox at the tail end when they only had low number "pop-up" cases of smallpox. Meaning, if you infect everyone in the home and don't spread it to the next home it "runs out of candidates".

so..as far as another wave in India probably depends on where those 2/3rd are.. because 1/3rd who live near each other is alot of people in India. They have over a billion people now.
 

MikeG

Senior Member.
ugh. that sucks. maybe it'll change a bit by then. (fingers crossed).
It is shifting in the right direction. Last Friday, our provost sent a letter out to the faculty telling us that we were going back to "pre-pandemic" operations. The response was immediate and negative. Within 24 hours, we received notice that there was a now mask mandate based on new evidence. New? I'll live with the face-saving rhetoric. No other changes yet, but we'll see how the next few weeks play out.
 

DavidB66

Active Member
I previously noted a run of daily Covid death figures in Russia, in reverse date order from August 4, as 790, 788, 785, 789, 792, 794, 799, and 798. There are now another 6 daily figures, from 5 to 10 August inclusive: 794, 792, 793, 787, 769, and 792. The mean for these 6 figures is 787.8, a slight fall from 792.2 previously. The fall is largely due to one relatively low figure of 769. With that one exception the figures continue to show a remarkable stability, all other figures falling within 1 percent of the mean.
 

Agent K

Senior Member
I previously noted a run of daily Covid death figures in Russia, in reverse date order from August 4, as 790, 788, 785, 789, 792, 794, 799, and 798. There are now another 6 daily figures, from 5 to 10 August inclusive: 794, 792, 793, 787, 769, and 792. The mean for these 6 figures is 787.8, a slight fall from 792.2 previously. The fall is largely due to one relatively low figure of 769. With that one exception the figures continue to show a remarkable stability, all other figures falling within 1 percent of the mean.
A picture is worth a thousand words. Russia is reporting more deaths from COVID-19 now than in previous waves.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...n+outbreaks=false&country=USA~IND~GBR~RUS~ISR
1628722940962.png
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
a preprint study (ie. not peer reviewed yet) but potentially some interesting data on vaccine hesitancy types

*note this article by Daily Mail implies at one section that PhD means people who can treat coronavirus, but that's not what PhD is. I know one lady with 8 fluff PhDs from 40 years ago that she literally has never used in real life (but she still insists people call her Dr. , it's funny)

Article:
The report showed a surprising U-shaped correlation between willingness to get a Covid vaccine and education level - with the highest hesitancy among those least and most educated.

Of those surveyed, 20.8 per cent with a high school education were reluctant to get the shot, and 23.9 per cent with a PhD were against it.

....
But researchers also found that within the first five months of 2021 the largest decrease in skepticism about getting the vaccine was among the least educated - those with a high school education or less.

By May, reluctance to get vaccinated held constant in the most educated group - those with PhDs.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Article:
In an interview on CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday, Fauci asked those individuals to "put aside" any concerns about "personal liberties."

....

"It's the unvaccinated that are doing that, so we have a lot of tasks," he said. "We've got to do mitigation. Put aside all of these issues of concern about liberties and personal liberties and realize we have a common enemy and that common enemy is the virus.


hmm... that doesn't sound like asking. I can't believe they haven't hired a marketing team yet for covid messaging. smh.
 

JMartJr

Senior Member
hmm... that doesn't sound like asking.
Has to be, it can't be ordering because Dr. Fauci cannot give folks orders. Might be edging over into desperate pleading, maybe.

I can't believe they haven't hired a marketing team yet for covid messaging.
100,000,000% agree. Where is the flood of PSA's with celebrities that people trust getting their vaccines and urging folks to do the same, or Mom asking eveybody to do their bit so kids can safely go back to school, or the usual stuff you'd expect. There's almost nothing that I've seen. One of the Sirius channels this morning had a PSA from CDC or USDHHS talking about how we all have to deal with stress from the Pandemic, with no mention of "one way to end the stress is fight to end the ^%$#& pandemic." I have nothing against helping folks who are stressed, stress is bad, but is that the most important thing we need to talk about in a resurgent pandemic?

Sorry if I seem enraged, I was quite annoyed by this while listening to the ad, I am trying to calm down and de-stress now...
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Might be edging over into desperate pleading, maybe.
he should try saying "please" then. :)

There's almost nothing that I've seen
because i google "connecticut coronavirus" every few days, google does highlight the tweets from our states Department of Health, and their tweets are brilliant! (our state isnt really polar in it's political divides).. but who but me sees them? I doubt my god daughter's friends are subscribing to the Connecticut Dept of Health. Our governor's been good too but again.. are the people not vaccinated even listening to him or clicking on those articles? we need ads on the young people radio stations. The old folk stations i listen too (which is likely the stations our conservative hold outs listen to) do often have the DJs throw a neutral reminder out.. but not that often. I guess they dont want to stress out their audience?

And i have seen ...not The Huskys, but one of the girls college basketball team doing a commercial on Hulu.. and lots of commercials of 'ethnic' doctors from Connecticut calmly urging people. but i pay for the cheap seats on Hulu, which means i get commercials. If paid the xtra $6 I'd get no commercials. Maybe some Connecticut ads on Tubi too... but i can't swear to that.
 

NorCal Dave

Active Member
Sorry if I seem enraged, I was quite annoyed by this while listening to the ad, I am trying to calm down and de-stress now...
Your yelling at the radio! Something I've often done. But your right, where's the marketing plan? Trump & Biden both. I don't watch a lot of TV, but with the local fires burning I check in in the morning and evening to see what's up. I've lost count of how many anti-tobacco/vaping ads I see in 00:30 minutes of news. Repeatedly.

We can't do something similar for vaccines? Like the tobacco ads, targeted to different groups? If we were in charge.....
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
July 12th
Article:
Citing very preliminary data, Channel 13 reports that those who recovered from COVID-19 may be better protected from reinfection than those who received the vaccine.

Since May 1, 72 people who previously had COVID were infected again, accounting for 1 percent of confirmed new cases, while 3,000 who were vaccinated have been infected — 40% of confirmed new cases.

Some experts conclude that those who had COVID are relatively safe from reinfection. But other health officials counter that the data does not take into account that new outbreaks did not spread in areas that previously saw massive outbreaks during the pandemic, such as in the ultra-Orthodox community, reports Channel 13.



edit add: up till very recently Israel used Pfizer vaccine.
 
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