COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

deirdre

Senior Member.
you can buy one of those dome umbrellas. which would also force people to distance a bit. (this started as a wise guy comment, but now im thinking i might buy one!
1626403507483.png

or even better (not as stylish though)
1626403654353.png
 

econ41

Senior Member
Estonia owes you an apology, I guess I can proxy it to you.

Accepted. ;)
Actually if I try to objectively see the wider international perspective I can easy build an argument for AU and NZ to have second or lower priority for vaccine supply. But I have no way of quantifying the real numbers for a legitimate risk managed probability assessment. And real politics will always be a bigger factor.

It's funny how we have done some things so well, and then shown abject incompetence in such closely related fields.
"We" - Aussies and Kiwis managed to get early response right. But not something we should claim undue credit for. We are both isolated islands and with relatively small populations and low international travel >> easy to shut the doors. And both countries politics a damn sight more stable than USA and UK just to mention two examples.

Bottom line - some lessons will be learned. Some wont. And time will tell which is which.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
what the bleep is the CDC doing with this yellow, orange, red zone map of theirs!? They basically have the entire state of Connecticut in the red zone, but our state map looks like
1627956865357.png
https://data.ct.gov/stories/s/q5as-kyim


How are we supposed to know which states are really bad, if they have us all in the red zones? it's so frustrating. The CDC has been ridiculously inept since this pandemic started (both under Biden and Trump), smh. I've been telling my mom for months that vaccinated people can still be asymptomatic and spread covid... and the CDC is just figuring this out now? How many salaries are we paying at the CDC?

(had to vent, sorry.)
 

MikeG

Senior Member.
CDC Counties.png
I have been using the CDC website to track my county.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view

Like it or not, the CDC has to navigate state and national politics while it also contends with a mutating virus. The combination of these features has not produced clear or consistent guidance at points.

Personally, I am concerned about guidance for incoming college students, one of the least vaccinated demographics. I have 70 in one class at the end of the month.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
CDC Counties.png
I have been using the CDC website to track my county.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view

ah that's actually helpful. never thought to look at cdc specifically, so its local news that has been marking red instead of orange (although orange for whole counties is a bit much too..esp when middlesex was 3 miles from our own red zones but Middlesex didnt have any cdc warning!)
1628003493316.pngScreenshot 2021-08-03 110902.png

the CDC has to navigate state and national politics
no they don't. they are supposed to just give us health info. i think if they were navigating politics they wouldn't be going out of their way to turn [rural] people off to getting a vaccine. Although i guess in urban areas, the delta rise itself should be encouraging vaccinations. and - in Connecticut- there are more people in the urban areas then all the rural areas. still....

I do feel a bit better this morning though, i was freaking out that our Eastern towns (low vac rates) will feel justified in not getting the vaccine. But that's more Rhode Islands problem than mine! :)

Personally, I am concerned about guidance for incoming college students, one of the least vaccinated demographics. I have 70 in one class at the end of the month.

i was wondering what your school was doing about that. Our colleges are requiring vaccinations.
 

DavidB66

Active Member
Looking at the Worldometers table for international Covid data I noticed that recently the reported daily death rate for Russia has been remarkably stable. The last 7 days' figures, in reverse date order, are 788, 785, 789, 792, 794, 799, 798. That gives an average (mean) of 792.1. It will be seen that all data points are within 1 percent of the mean.
I note this as a statistical curiosity. Most other countries show greater short-term variation, often with a marked weekly cycle, perhaps due to delays and catch-ups in reporting deaths, as is well-known in the UK. Even in Russia the stability seems to be a very recent phenomenon, with figures stuck in the range 780 to 799 for the last three weeks (with a few lower figures, like 727 on July 26). Previous data seem to show a weekly cycle like other countries. The recent stability in Russia would be understandable if the daily figures were in fact rolling averages, but the occasional lower figures seem to rule that out. The cynic (or paranoiac) in me wonders if some luckless apparatchik has been told 'don't let the daily figures go over 800', and is making a rather clumsy job of it. But most likely it is just a genuine statistical oddity, like a long run of heads or tails in coin tosses.
 

derwoodii

Senior Member.
its all gone bit pear shaped down here the Indian/delta strain going about various states of Australia.
The infected numbers are very low in world comparison but we seem to have a political eradication ideal rather than effective vax control

Im having trouble finding a accurate news page link that give broad brush national Australian perspective report
 

econ41

Senior Member
its all gone bit pear shaped down here the Indian/delta strain going about various states of Australia.
The infected numbers are very low in world comparison but we seem to have a political eradication ideal rather than effective vax control

Im having trouble finding a accurate news page link that give broad brush national Australian perspective report
I agree. I suspect political apathy slowed down vaccination logistics because "we" were successful in the first response. Even with the current infection rates in NSW*** - ~200 new cases per day for a population of 8.2 million is low. But we have had many months of either zero or low single digit new cases per day. Also I suspect community preventative standards have been low for the same reason - "apathy" because it has not been seen as a real threat.

Whilst two "social" elements are notable. Very subjective - I have no basis for objective measurement:
1) I knew that the "anti-vax" and "my rights are supreme" sources of activity appear to be low in AU and that seems to be holding; AND
2) The tolerance of the AU culture - the "we not me" balance - and the "we are all in this together" also seems to be holding BUT... how long?

We don't appear to have any rabid advocates of either "selfish rights" or "anti-vax" - yes we have both but at this stage no critical mass...
.
.
.
*** Oops. Bit of Aussie geography derwoodii is from the state of Victoria - the south east corner of AU. I'm from NSW ("New South Wales") the next northern state half way up the east coast. (The third and northern most state on the East coast is "Queensland". Guess which monarch reigned when Australia was "formed" and federated.) AND we only have 6 states plus a couple of governed territories and it is same size as mainland USA. Victoria and NSW have had the worst impacts of COVID infections dealt with by rigorous "lock down" rules.
states.png
 
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FatPhil

Active Member
Both Finland and Estonia have declared the increasing case rates in the other country to be of concern. I popped over to Finland for a beer festival last weekend (for which I presume they severely restricted the number of people, it never particularly filled up on any of the days), and as I got off the boat over there I was asked to prove I'd been vaxxed - all quick and easy, barely slowed anyone down at all (at least in the 'fully vaxxed' stream, no idea how the other streams went). On the way back, there was absolutely nothing, it's as if covid was no longer a thing. Our case counts are rising quicker than Finland's. I wonder why, he says sardonically. Then again, our hospitals coped with the much higher peaks of apparently nastier strains last year very well, and perhaps we're just playing the Sweden game, and trying to just get it over through natural means. Bring on the chicken pox parties, in that case.
 

FatPhil

Active Member
ok, scratch that. they sort of are, but not really..so basically they aren't. :)

Yup. One thing I've said many times here is "there're not even implementing a mechanism for enforcing a restriction, so basically there is no restriction", each time new "restrictions" are talked about.
Likewise, I wish people would stop using the term "quarantine" for a polite request not to mingle for a couple of weeks, that's not what quarantine is, and it also wound me up.
 

FatPhil

Active Member
Looking at the Worldometers table for international Covid data I noticed that recently the reported daily death rate for Russia has been remarkably stable. The last 7 days' figures, in reverse date order, are 788, 785, 789, 792, 794, 799, 798. That gives an average (mean) of 792.1. It will be seen that all data points are within 1 percent of the mean.
I note this as a statistical curiosity. Most other countries show greater short-term variation, often with a marked weekly cycle, perhaps due to delays and catch-ups in reporting deaths, as is well-known in the UK. Even in Russia the stability seems to be a very recent phenomenon, with figures stuck in the range 780 to 799 for the last three weeks (with a few lower figures, like 727 on July 26). Previous data seem to show a weekly cycle like other countries. The recent stability in Russia would be understandable if the daily figures were in fact rolling averages, but the occasional lower figures seem to rule that out. The cynic (or paranoiac) in me wonders if some luckless apparatchik has been told 'don't let the daily figures go over 800', and is making a rather clumsy job of it. But most likely it is just a genuine statistical oddity, like a long run of heads or tails in coin tosses.

I'd go with the apparatchik explanation any day. We're catching a handful of recently-arrived Russians positives every day, and we only get a microscopic fraction of their population coming across the border each day - their case rate is way higher than they're declaring. Either that, or COVID is disproportionally affecting lorry drivers. Countries lie. China was doing this back in early 2020 too - they seemed to have programmed an exact smooth curve to achieve, and hit it bang on every day.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
We don't appear to have any rabid advocates of either "selfish rights" or "anti-vax" - yes we have both but at this stage no critical mass...
or maybe your mainstream media is just smart enough not to cover it. I havent seen such coverage (on anti-vax) recently, come to think of it, so maybe our media wised up too.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
i do have to say, this (below) is ridiculous. there is no way i would stand in that line, that long, with a bunch of unvaccinated people to get a shot.

In America we have appointments, so it's in and out. (and -as long as you have a car- we can choose which vaccine we want)
australia:
1628086996093.png
 

MikeG

Senior Member.
i was wondering what your school was doing about that. Our colleges are requiring vaccinations.
The school took down all signs regarding COVID more than a month ago. We are back to face-to-face, full classes in about three weeks. No distancing. No vaccinations required. We were told we cannot make them wear masks in class or during office hours. I am worried, quite frankly.
 

NorCal Dave

Member
i do have to say, this (below) is ridiculous. there is no way i would stand in that line, that long, with a bunch of unvaccinated people to get a shot.

In America we have appointments, so it's in and out. (and -as long as you have a car- we can choose which vaccine we want)
australia:
1628086996093.png
We sorta have appointments. We got a "window" to show up at the fairgrounds where we waited in line outside and then inside an exhibit hall. Always masked and separated by 6'. That was back in early April. Nowadays if I pick up some poison oak cream at the local (rural) pharmacy they practically beg me to get a vaccine or send someone that needs one.

But if that line was what it took to get a vaccine I'd be all in. Life is risk management. Waiting outside with people that are clearly NOT anti-vaxxers for a chance to try and put this s*&t show behind would be worth it for me. But that's me.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
The school took down all signs regarding COVID more than a month ago. We are back to face-to-face, full classes in about three weeks. No distancing. No vaccinations required. We were told we cannot make them wear masks in class or during office hours. I am worried, quite frankly.
ugh. that sucks. maybe it'll change a bit by then. (fingers crossed).
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
We sorta have appointments
are you northern California?

yea if i was still working with little ones or if i was in a public facing job i would too. i dont want spreading it to anyone on my conscious. we have an amazing number of healthcare workers still not getting the vaccine. But i heard Pfizer should be FDA approved soona nd Moderna approved by late August... that might help convince some more to get it.
 

NorCal Dave

Member
are you northern California?

yea if i was still working with little ones or if i was in a public facing job i would too. i dont want spreading it to anyone on my conscious. we have an amazing number of healthcare workers still not getting the vaccine. But i heard Pfizer should be FDA approved soona nd Moderna approved by late August... that might help convince some more to get it.
Yes I am. About 80-90 miles north of Sacramento.
Hopefully full FDA approval will help. I have 2 good friends, both in health care, that wont get vaccinated. I'm at a loss to convince them. One is left of center, one is right of center, politically, so I don't know. I would just like for us to get beyond this Ms. Deirdre so we can argue about UFOs and Bigfoot.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
I'm at a loss to convince them
i got a few people to go in by telling them to just get the first shot, "at least it gives you some protection and most side effects are after the second shot". obviously the cdc doesnt agree with me or they would be putting out that message... but 30% chance at protection, is better than 0%.

and im not going to ask them about their second shot, but im hoping if they get the first and feel ok they might try the second too. I myself was mostly paranoid about the allergic reaction that the media pushed out. but that would only apply to the first shot.


add: one county data:
Article:
Known infections among vaccinated and partially vaccinated residents comprise just 0.17% of cases, meaning the vast majority of infections involve people who are not yet immunized.


Article:
Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris gave county commissioners an update on the pandemic Wednesday night, reporting that at least 624 people have contracted COVID-19 before completing their vaccine series.

This number is in addition to the 376 “true breakthrough cases” in the county that Mecklenburg officials reported for the first time last week, Harris said. The data is current as of July 26.

....
The full tally of breakthrough infections could be far higher, though.

Due to data reporting problems between the state and county, Mecklenburg officials on Friday acknowledged the 376 figure “does not represent all breakthrough cases.”
 
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Mauro

Active Member
One thing I never see being talked about is that there are some people who really want to be vaccinated, do not have any 'hard' contraindication but who cannot get the shot nonetheless. I'm talking about people who suffer of blood-injection-injury type phobia, of which unfortunately I am one. There's nothing to laugh about needle phobia: it's the only phobia which actually decreases the life expectancy.

Blood injury injection (BII) phobia is a common psychiatric disorder, with an estimated prevalence of 3% to 4% in the general population [1, 2]. While most patients with blood injury phobia will not look for medical assistance and refuse medical appointments because of anxiety symptoms emerging with exposure, do not present to clinics or hospitals, and generally refuse hospital appointments because these things act as a phobic stimulus to them which increase their anxiety. BII phobia is a condition in which people are likely to faint at the sight of blood, the anticipation of physical injury, or the anticipation of an injection, characterized by avoidance behavior and intense, irrational fear in response to seeing blood, injections, injuries, disability, or exposure to these or other similar medical procedures
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4094700/

This is what happened to me: I tried to get my shot, I went to the vaccination hub in my city, I ended up having a panic attack and I fled (literally).

3%-4% of the population is a lot of people who will not get vaccinated only because they fear the shot. I think 3-4% is too high a figure, some of those will be able to overcome their fears and get the shot, but were it just 1% it's always a lot of unvaccinated people. I can even hypothesize that, among the anti-vaxxers, some of them are not 'true' anti-vaxxers but phobic people who became anti-vaxxers as a way to rationalize their fears or not to be shamed as 'that coward stupid guy who can't even take a shot'.

Is there any way out of this? Well there are different kinds of psycotherapy which can be tried, they don't work (or at least, they did not work with me). There are tranquillizers, which do help, but up to a point (I had been prescribed by my doctor a benzodiazepine tranquillizer before I tried to get my shot, it could have worked, but it didn't). There is another method: a needle-less injection device. It's been since the late 60s that I hear about those devices, but it seemed they never were able to get them to work properly. But nowadays it seems there is at least one working device (Comfort-in IM, from a South Korean producer). In an Italian city (Messina) they are using it now, the news were on all TVs and newspapers. Unfortunately I'm not registered as a Messina citizen, I live in the opposite part of Italy, more than 1000km away. I have sent a letter to the sanitary authorities of my region (no answer yet, what did I expect..) and I have even pleaded directly to the President of Italy (no answer yet). I'll let pass some more days (at least, out of respect for the President) then I will plead with Messina, hoping I'll be allowed to go there to be vaccinated.

And, every time I hear on the TV things such as 'doctors point their fingers against unvaccinated people' or 'being vaccinated is a moral and civic imperative' I also feel to be fooled around.

Sorry for a post which is, mostly, personal.
 
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FatPhil

Active Member
Wow, thanks for sharing @Mauro - I am very slowly pulling myself out of that state, I've had it since forever. When they asked "have you ever passed out after an injection" my honest response was "no, but I've passed out *before* them, vomitted too" - even when being administered to other people. I can't even watch injections on medical TV programs (slasher horror movies, no problem, but one needle and I'm toast). I've been forcing myself to not turn away, it's got easier over time. I know it's irrational, and I know it can be overcome, and I'm a decent part of the way there.

I honestly felt like a big brave 6-year-old after my (single J&J) jab. In some ways it was utterly pathetic, but it's a step forwards. My nurse was excellent, even though, or perhaps because, she treated me like the big brave 6-year-old that I was. I walked away from the surgery with a smile and a warmth within that I was genuinely surpised by.
 

Mauro

Active Member
Wow, thanks for sharing @Mauro - I am very slowly pulling myself out of that state, I've had it since forever. When they asked "have you ever passed out after an injection" my honest response was "no, but I've passed out *before* them, vomitted too" - even when being administered to other people. I can't even watch injections on medical TV programs (slasher horror movies, no problem, but one needle and I'm toast). I've been forcing myself to not turn away, it's got easier over time. I know it's irrational, and I know it can be overcome, and I'm a decent part of the way there.

I honestly felt like a big brave 6-year-old after my (single J&J) jab. In some ways it was utterly pathetic, but it's a step forwards. My nurse was excellent, even though, or perhaps because, she treated me like the big brave 6-year-old that I was. I walked away from the surgery with a smile and a warmth within that I was genuinely surpised by.
I'm very happy for you FatPhil, and thank you :)
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
I honestly felt like a big brave 6-year-old after my (single J&J) jab. In some ways it was utterly pathetic, but it's a step forwards. My nurse was excellent, even though, or perhaps because, she treated me like the big brave 6-year-old that I was

That's a ridiculous way to view yourself, or others. Do you honestly think 6 year olds (or 2 year olds who also brave injections) have the psychological and cognitive database to have developed the same fears?

3%-4% of the population
that is extremely useful. I never thought of that.
There are also people who cannot get the shot due to allergies or past diseases (for instance there is a slight warning for those who had in the past Guillian-Barre..i wonder how many of them are risking the shot. I wouldnt)

and in my state approx 15% of our population is not eligible for vaccines. and that too is often not included in the math we see.


Is it possible for your personal GP (physician) to get a shot for you, so at least you dont have to go to a hub? If he can, maybe y'all can think of some strategies to make it easier for you depending on what your specific phobias are actually centered around. For example when i needed a MRI i kinda freaked (i wont take nitrous at the dentist either, or anesthesia) based on stories i was told. so i told the old man who was bringing me up to tell me when to close my eyes so i wouldn't see the machine. he did. and i did. kept them closed the entire time. (it was actually quite pleasant, like being on a hammock on the beach.. with a bit of construction going on nearby).

But dont feel bad about all the "unvaccinated" bashing, they aren't talking about you or minorities. and at least you know you are unvaccinated, so are probably taking steps to keep yourself and others safe. Immunocompromised people or people who dont know they are immunocompromised yet, are often not making antibodies but think they are vaccinated so are wandering around not being safe. let alone the 20% or so whose antibodies aren't good enough to protect against against delta.

I'm a little upset about break through cases, because i think it's stupid to assume you are safe or not contagious after vaccination. EVERYONE knows you can still get flu after a flu shot!
Logically i get that normal life needs to go on, but that is my emotional response. But really, all those media stories bashing the unvaccinated aren't talking about you 3%. Just remember that.


ps add: its a super small needle (if you have needle phobia) and i had no blood drops on my bandaid..*not that i had to LOOK at my bandaid on removal, but i had none). it's nothing like the needle you feel when getting blood drawn, and its done in 1/4 of a second. No pressure!!!.... i dont think badly of you for not getting the vax... just sharing.
 
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...
ps add: its a super small needle (if you have needle phobia) and i had no blood drops on my bandaid..*not that i had to LOOK at my bandaid on removal, but i had none). it's nothing like the needle you feel when getting blood drawn, and its done in 1/4 of a second. No pressure!!!.... i dont think badly of you for not getting the vax... just sharing.

yes, a very small needle. for both of my vaccine doses there wasn't hardly even a mark on my arm from the injection. i did not look. i don't like watching needles go in or out, etc. but on the whole this was a minor thing compared to what many people have gone through.

we've lost a number of friends to this disease. i consider anyone who has access to a vaccine who won't get one an idiot unless you have other complications which make sense for you to avoid it. not many people are in that category.

i hope the people in NZ and AU can get their vaccines soon and will do it before they learn how bad it really can get.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
i consider anyone who has access to a vaccine who won't get one an idiot unless you have other complications which make sense for you to avoid it.

well...until one of the infected vaccinated teach the virus how to mutate its spike protein to get around the vaccine. then we're back to square one.
 

Landru

Moderator
Staff member
well...until one of the infected vaccinated teach the virus how to mutate its spike protein to get around the vaccine. then we're back to square one.
There is no evidence to suggest that vaccinated people can cause variants.

"Fact Check-No evidence vaccination efforts are causing new COVID-19 variants | Article [AMP] | Reuters" https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL2N2NL1M2

There is no evidence that COVID-19 vaccinations have caused the original coronavirus to mutate. As explained here by the World Health Organization (WHO), when a virus is spreading widely in a population and infecting many people, it is more likely to mutate. “The more opportunities a virus has to spread, the more it replicates – and the more opportunities it has to undergo changes,” the WHO says.
 

Landru

Moderator
Staff member
i didnt say the vaccinated cased the original coronavirus to mutate.
You said,
well...until one of the infected vaccinated teach the virus how to mutate its spike protein to get around the vaccine. then we're back to square one.
No evidence exists to suggest your statement is possible.
 

LilWabbit

Active Member
sorry i didn't realize the "lay off antibiotics because it's making antibiotic resistant germs", thing had been debunked. thanks.

Antibiotics deal with bacteria. Viruses operate differently. A common confusion.
 
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deirdre

Senior Member.
Antibiotics deal with bacteria. Viruses operate differently. A common confusion.

since you didnt explain why, ill just move on back to the drug vs vaccine issue. From what i've been reading, these two bolded reasons that vaccines typically dont produce resistance, don't apply to the covid vaccine that we have now. (i'm not insulting the vaccine, they got us something good and quickly so major major kudos to the producers!)

Article:
Why is drug resistance common and vaccine resistance rare? Drugs and vaccines both impose substantial pressure on pathogen populations to evolve resistance and indeed, drug resistance typically emerges soon after the introduction of a drug. But vaccine resistance has only rarely emerged. Using well-established principles of population genetics and evolutionary ecology, we argue that two key differences between vaccines and drugs explain why vaccines have so far proved more robust against evolution than drugs. First, vaccines tend to work prophylactically while drugs tend to work therapeutically. Second, vaccines tend to induce immune responses against multiple targets on a pathogen while drugs tend to target very few. Consequently, pathogen populations generate less variation for vaccine resistance than they do for drug resistance, and selection has fewer opportunities to act on that variation. When vaccine resistance has evolved, these generalities have been violated. With careful forethought, it may be possible to identify vaccines at risk of failure even before they are introduced.
 

LilWabbit

Active Member
since you didnt explain why, ill just move on back to the drug vs vaccine issue.

A useful encapsulation of the mechanics involved in antibiotic resistance which are obviously different from viral mutations since antibiotics concern bacteria instead of viruses:

Article:
The five main mechanisms by which bacteria exhibit resistance to antibiotics are:
  1. Drug inactivation or modification: for example, enzymatic deactivation of penicillin G in some penicillin-resistant bacteria through the production of β-lactamases. Most commonly, the protective enzymes produced by the bacterial cell will add an acetyl or phosphate group to a specific site on the antibiotic, which will reduce its ability to bind to the bacterial ribosomes and disrupt protein synthesis.[84]
  2. Alteration of target- or binding site: for example, alteration of PBP—the binding target site of penicillins—in MRSA and other penicillin-resistant bacteria. Another protective mechanism found among bacterial species is ribosomal protection proteins. These proteins protect the bacterial cell from antibiotics that target the cell's ribosomes to inhibit protein synthesis. The mechanism involves the binding of the ribosomal protection proteins to the ribosomes of the bacterial cell, which in turn changes its conformational shape. This allows the ribosomes to continue synthesizing proteins essential to the cell while preventing antibiotics from binding to the ribosome to inhibit protein synthesis.[85]
  3. Alteration of metabolic pathway: for example, some sulfonamide-resistant bacteria do not require para-aminobenzoic acid (PABA), an important precursor for the synthesis of folic acid and nucleic acids in bacteria inhibited by sulfonamides, instead, like mammalian cells, they turn to using preformed folic acid.[86]
  4. Reduced drug accumulation: by decreasing drug permeability or increasing active efflux (pumping out) of the drugs across the cell surface[87] These pumps within the cellular membrane of certain bacterial species are used to pump antibiotics out of the cell before they are able to do any damage. They are often activated by a specific substrate associated with an antibiotic,[88] as in fluoroquinolone resistance.[89]
  5. Ribosome splitting and recycling: for example, drug-mediated stalling of the ribosome by lincomycin and erythromycin unstalled by a heat shock protein found in Listeria monocytogenes, which is a homologue of HflX from other bacteria. Liberation of the ribosome from the drug allows further translation and consequent resistance to the drug.[90]


Resistance to antiviral drugs is also a thing but thus far hasn't been shown to result from existing Covid-19 vaccines. Hence you were pressed for evidence to back up your claim. The Covid-19 virus has mutated in the course of prolonged and widespread infection within the world population. Even these mutations haven't, so far, proven to be significantly resistant to the existing vaccines, but we may yet come to that point if left to roam rampantly.

From what i've been reading, these two bolded reasons that vaccines typically dont produce resistance, don't apply to the covid vaccine that we have now. (i'm not insulting the vaccine, they got us something good and quickly so major major kudos to the producers!)

You cited the common reasons why vaccines generally provide better protection against variation and evolution (viral or bacterial) than drugs. You did not cite evidence for why these common reasons wouldn't apply to Covid vaccines.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
SARS-CoV-2 variants are not caused by vaccines and numerous Variants of Concern (VOC) were detected prior to mass rollouts of vaccines, despite suggestions to the contrary online.
[..]

“Effectively, we are hearing so much more about viral variants in 2021 because, globally, we now have the systems in place to consistently detect and track mutations,” Grier added.

On May 31, the WHO assigned Variants of Interest (VOI) and VOC to letters of the Greek alphabet to simplify discussion and to curb stigma (here).

“I think the recent change to Greek letter names has made it easier to follow reports about specific variants, but the name changes might have made it seem as if a whole bunch of new variants appeared all at once,” Grier said.
 

Agent K

Senior Member
Article:
SARS-CoV-2 variants are not caused by vaccines and numerous Variants of Concern (VOC) were detected prior to mass rollouts of vaccines, despite suggestions to the contrary online.
[..]

“Effectively, we are hearing so much more about viral variants in 2021 because, globally, we now have the systems in place to consistently detect and track mutations,” Grier added.

On May 31, the WHO assigned Variants of Interest (VOI) and VOC to letters of the Greek alphabet to simplify discussion and to curb stigma (here).

“I think the recent change to Greek letter names has made it easier to follow reports about specific variants, but the name changes might have made it seem as if a whole bunch of new variants appeared all at once,” Grier said.
Article:
Coronavirus transmission among vaccinated people could raise the risk of an even more dangerous variant

The coronavirus could be "just a few mutations potentially away" from evolving into a variant that can evade existing COVID-19 vaccines, CDC director Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday.
According to research published Friday in the journal Scientific Reports, vaccinated people — counterintuitively — play a key role in that risk.
The best way to stop coronavirus deaths and severe illness is to roll out vaccines quickly. However, the researchers concluded that the chance a vaccine-resistant strain will emerge is highest in a scenario that combines three conditions: First, a large portion of a population is vaccinated, but not everyone. Second, there's a lot of virus circulating. And third, no measures are in place to curb potential viral transmission from vaccinated people.

Here's the study's abstract
Article:
Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
 
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FatPhil

Active Member
With grossly simpifying assumptions, this apparent paradox just drops out of simple probabilities. There will be higher probabilities of successful variants amongst the non-vaccinated simply because there's more replication taking place. The probability of those variants being vaccine resistent will be low, as there's no evolutionary pressure. The far-fewer in number successful variants in the vaccinated do have an evolutionary pressure for vaccine resistance, pretty much definitionally. Therefore, if you do encounter a vaccine-resistent strain there's a pretty decent chance it came from someone who was vaccinated.

Compare: one jar has 10 white balls and a red ball. Another jar has one red ball. Someone picks a random ball from a random jar - it's red. Which jar did it come from?
 
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