Claims of missing voters in 2024 vs. 2020

[Mick West]

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGj7MHUxB-E


The above is a video summary of the discussion in this thread. Original first post follows:
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Typical claim:

In 2020, Biden got 81million votes, Trump 74million

In 2024, Harris got 67million votes, Trump 72million

That's 16million votes that appear to have "stayed at home".

That is beyond "not normal".

With this graph.

Source:
Source: https://twitter.com/Echopeus/status/1854193755584188670


The claims are being made on Nov 6, the day after the election, but on Nov 6, there is still a substantial portion of the vote that has not been counted, particularly in California. Here's the current AP results as reported by Google.

So there seems to be a lot of votes left to be counted (44% of California, being the biggest).

In 2020 the California vote was 11,110,639 to Biden and 6,006,518 to Trump

So, it would seem we need to wait a few days before making any comparisons between 2020 and 2024

 

[Scaramanga]

Thanks for explaining. For a moment I thought I'd missed the rapture.

 

[JMartJr]

There were multiple factors driving the extraordinary turnout in 2020, most notably the civic and individual trauma of the COVID pandemic and deep concerns about the governments handling of it -- on the one side, was the government downplaying it and causing necessary deaths, on the other were they OVER hyping it and causing the stressors associated with business closures, lockdowns, school disruptions, etc., whether in-good-faith-but-neeedlessly (in their view) or as part of an evil scheme. Whichever of those positions you might find is closer to your own, folks on both sides had a massive additional motivation to vote. And both sides did, at unprecedented levels; note that Mr. Trump received MORE votes in his loss in 2020 than he has so far in 2024 -- we'll see if that holds up as the rest of the vote is counted.

The answer to "where did they all go?" is -- it's where they DIDN'T go, they didn't go vote, they stayed home.

(The "they spent a billion dollars" is misleading, her campaign spent well over $1 billion in aired advertisement buys, but that is not (all) aimed at GOTV efforts (Get Out The Vote), much of it was aimed at persuading undecideds or firming up her base support, and the like. I do not know what was devoted to GOTV by either campaign nor by their supporters such as state parties, congressional campaigns, party committees, etc. I'd suggest that evidence indicates the Harris side did not spend as much as they might now wish they had -- I've been there, done that, and it is maddening when it happens to you!)

 

[deirdre]

There were multiple factors driving the extraordinary turnout in 2020,

i think the most notable part was that in person voting was out and ballots were just mailed to people. I would have voted in this election too if a ballot just showed up in my mailbox without any real effort on my part! Prior, many states had that "you need a valid excuse to get an absentee ballot" rule.
And late late ballots were accepted because of the Post Office kerfluckle. etc.

Article:

The Federal Election Commission reports that 158,429,631 people voted in the 2020 presidential election.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/25/how-many-people-voted-2020-election/75838131007/

[political opinion on Mick's tweet redacted]

 

[Ann K]

So there seems to be a lot of votes left to be counted (44% of California, being the biggest).

In 2020 the California vote was 11,110,639 to Biden and 6,006,518 to Trump

So, it would seem we need to wait a few days before making any comparisons between 2020 and 2024

I think a large part of the difference is due to voting by mail, and of course those take more time to count, but as yet I cannot find the statistics for absentee ballots cast in 2024. However, there were nearly 69 million requests for absentee ballots.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/early-vote-tracker-2024.html

 

[Edward Current]

It's only been a half day since that bar graph was made, and already the gold arrow wouldn't align with Harris' latest numbers (67.4M at 7:30 PM Eastern).

Turnout was good — some new voters for Harris, but more for Trump. According to CBS News' exit polls, the differential among new voters was 11 percentage points.

 

[JMartJr]

Prior, many states had that "you need a valid excuse to get an absentee ballot"

I think a large part of the difference is due to voting by mail, and of course those take more time to count, but as yet I cannot find the statistics for absentee ballots cast in 2024.

It is probably worth noting that every state has their own election procedures, and that "absentee ballot" and "mail in ballot" are not totally synonymous. For example, Oregon does not use in person voting on election day, but uses ballots mailed to all voters, which can be mailed back or dropped into a drop off box. With that system, "absentee voting" drops out as a null term! The functional difference is miniscule, but I hope a little display of pedantry will be indulged, just this once! ^_^

Oregon has the most convenient voting system in the country. Since adopting vote-by-mail, Oregon consistently ranks as a national leader in voter turnout and security.

Voters' pamphlets with information on ballot measures and candidates are sent to Oregon residents two to three weeks before each statewide election, giving voters time to research issues on the ballot, including state and local measures and candidates.

Active registered voters receive an official ballot to complete and return. The ballot can be mailed back or dropped off at any official drop box across the state.

Ballots must be received or mailed with a valid postmark by 8 p.m. on Election Day.

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Pages/voteinor.aspx

 

[deirdre]

The functional difference is miniscule, but I hope a little display of pedantry will be indulged, just this once! ^_^

i wasnt sure which term was accurate for the new covid protocols with voting that year. sorry. we weren't absent, so probably "mail-in" would be the one for not wanting covid people to infect voting spaces?

 

[Mick West]

I ran the numbers. Using this page:
https://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2024/president/
I saw their data was coming from:
https://api-election.cbsnews.com/api/public/races2/2024/G?filter.office=P

That gave me data.json (attached), upon which I ran extrapolate.py, giving:

State: US Trump +0, Harris +0
State: AL Trump +14715, Harris +7764
State: AK Trump +55016, Harris +40043
State: AZ Trump +558764, Harris +500524
State: AR Trump +15467, Harris +8075
State: CA Trump +2682243, Harris +3833257
State: CO Trump +271574, Harris +343905
State: CT Trump +29920, Harris +39816
State: DE Trump +2163, Harris +2925
State: DC Trump +1191, Harris +16333
State: FL Trump +61631, Harris +47195
State: GA Trump +26840, Harris +25659
State: HI Trump +21463, Harris +34709
State: ID Trump +6111, Harris +2775
State: IL Trump +208147, Harris +247272
State: IN Trump +88629, Harris +59620
State: IA Trump +9334, Harris +7124
State: KS Trump +22770, Harris +16181
State: KY Trump +27312, Harris +14324
State: LA Trump +12204, Harris +7741
State: ME Trump +14621, Harris +17259
State: MD Trump +202553, Harris +327413
State: MA Trump +51538, Harris +86368
State: MI Trump +28283, Harris +27432
State: MN Trump +15344, Harris +16735
State: MS Trump +144741, Harris +88237
State: MO Trump +17572, Harris +12029
State: MT Trump +14292, Harris +9385
State: NE Trump +22972, Harris +14712
State: NV Trump +44563, Harris +41313
State: NH Trump +3959, Harris +4191
State: NJ Trump +187187, Harris +207304
State: NM Trump +4252, Harris +4782
State: NY Trump +218987, Harris +276518
State: NC Trump +29051, Harris +27125
State: ND Trump +2485, Harris +1131
State: OH Trump +129850, Harris +103311
State: OK Trump +10456, Harris +5040
State: OR Trump +220283, Harris +285185
State: PA Trump +70936, Harris +68203
State: RI Trump +6584, Harris +8697
State: SC Trump +30217, Harris +20943
State: SD Trump +2789, Harris +1481
State: TN Trump +81951, Harris +43971
State: TX Trump +64397, Harris +48549
State: UT Trump +282590, Harris +172144
State: VT Trump +1205, Harris +2380
State: VA Trump +61975, Harris +68906
State: WA Trump +461858, Harris +692234
State: WV Trump +5330, Harris +2123
State: WI Trump +17143, Harris +16856
State: WY Trump +1945, Harris +702

Total Votes (reported):
Donald Trump: 72722763
Kamala Harris: 68039491

Extrapolated Final Vote Counts (based on percent in):
Donald Trump: 79290166
Kamala Harris: 75997392

Final Pickup
Donald Trump: 6567403
Kamala Harris: 7957901

Adding some commas for readability:
Total Votes (reported):
Donald Trump: 72,722,763
Kamala Harris: 68,039,491

Extrapolated Final Vote Counts (based on percent in):
Donald Trump: 79,290,166
Kamala Harris: 75,997,392

Final Pickup
Donald Trump: 6,567,403
Kamala Harris: 7,957,901

So the final results of the popular vote should be around 76 million for Harris vs. 79.3 Million for Trump

 

[deirdre]

So the final results of the popular vote should be around 76 million for Harris vs. 79.3 Million for Trump

is there news on your end regarding why California's counting is so stuck at 55%?

 

[Mick West]

So the final results of the popular vote should be around 76 million for Harris vs. 79.3 Million for Trump

Keep in mind that this is a simple extrapolation of the outstanding votes per state. They might well skew more towards Harris if they are more from large cities.

 

[Mick West]

is there news on your end regarding why California's counting is so stuck at 55%?

I suspect it's counting the mail-in ballots.

 

[JMartJr]

A law Gov. Gavin Newsom signed in October dictates that counties cannot certify election results until 28 days after the election, which means all election results will be certified on or after Dec. 3.

So there is no rush, in terms of getting the count finished and certified legally. But the count is continuing, the reporting schedule is just ood...

The polls in California close at 8 p.m., and election offices in Sacramento, Yolo, El Dorado and Placer counties are prepared to release their first batch of results at 8:15 p.m.

The first drop represents the vote-by-mail ballots that counties received at drop boxes and vote center ballot drop-off locations in the days and weeks leading up to the election.

Second, third, and potentially fourth results landing election night between 9 p.m. and 1 a.m. the following morning will represent those who voted in person. Election officials don't leave until every in-person, vote center ballot has been tabulated.

After election night, more results will drop twice a week, typically Tuesday and Friday afternoons, until all ballots have been counted and certified in early December.

Source: https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article294891974.html

Other counties may have different schedules, I do not know. But a reporting schedule that drops new numbers more slowly than curious people might like does not mean that the counting is not underway...

 

[Mick West]

More detailed analysis from Nate Cohn suggests a tighter final result

Source: https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1854559484410003832


But I think the simple extrapolation will be accurate within a million.

 

[Mendel]

note that the scale on the graph in the OP is not going to 0, but starts at 50. This makes the difference seem bigger than it is.

 

[deirdre]

After election night, more results will drop twice a week, typically Tuesday and Friday afternoons,

well..damn. thats extreemely useful, thanks. i can stop checking to see the progress!

 

[Mick West]

Here's the graph full scale, with the 2024 results extrapolated. Final result is likely to be more democrat.

 

[JMartJr]

note that the scale on the graph in the OP is not going to 0, but starts at 50. This makes the difference seem bigger than it is.

Fast and dirty copy-paste to make the graph go to zero. It does not change the nature of the question -- "There are fewer voters this time, why?" I think that has been addressed as best as it can be until after-the-fact polling tries to look into why people did and did not decide to vote provides additional info. But it removes the false impression that the original graph might create -- that Biden got twice as many votes as Obama in '12, Clinton in '16 or Harris in '24. (If you don't consider any of the vote that is still being counted...)

 

[deirdre]

into why people did and did not decide to vote

or why they voted more for 3rd party candidates than 2020. <i dont know if they did, but so far everyone seems to be forgetting 3rd parties. Granted that isnt the point of the OP question, and you might have meant "decided not to vote for Harris" but just throwing that reminder into the thread.

 

[JMartJr]

or why they voted more for 3rd party candidates than 2020. <i dont know if they did, but so far everyone seems to be forgetting 3rd parties.

It is usually safe to ignore them.

In 2020, the third parties and stuff like write-ins came to a hair under 2% of the votes cast (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_results) In the vote counted so far, according to the AP, they are aggregating a hair under 1.5% (first result on google, there is probably a table on the AP site but I didn't see it immediately and am heading out the door.)

Barring the occasional Ross Perot or George Wallace or Teddy Roosevelt and the Bull Moose Party, the third parties are not really a factor other than in individual states that are insanely close.

Edit to add: Still can't find the spot actually on AP where they are doing the current running tally, but for the sake of not making a claim with no link (I see the combined vote for "everybody else" is now up ti 1.5%):

Source: https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=presidential+election+tally

 

[deirdre]

It is usually safe to ignore them.

i know but this cycle there was a movement to not vote Harris because of Gaza. But yea i guess if we're almost .5% lower in 3rd party votes those folks buckled, voted for Trump, or stayed home.

 

[JMartJr]

i know but this cycle there was a movement to not vote Harris because of Gaza. But yea i guess if we're almost .5% lower in 3rd party votes those folks buckled, voted for Trump, or stayed home.

Or the movement was vocal but tiny. Or was more meant to pressure her into taking the stance that they wanted than it was to vote against her. Or was mostly students who, as a group, are not normally high-propensity voters -- as you say, "...or stayed home." I'd guess "all of the above."

 

[Mick West]

Extrapolated Final Vote Counts (based on percent in):
Donald Trump: 79,290,166
Kamala Harris: 75,997,392

Update with CA up to 72%

Extrapolated Final Vote Counts (based on percent in):
Donald Trump: 78,752,513
Kamala Harris: 75,772,191

Both of them have gone down. This is due to the inaccuracies in the "Percent In" number, which is accurate to, at best, 1% and likely less as it's somewhat estimated. The gap has narrowed a bit, as Harris went down less.

 

[deirdre]

Source:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGj7MHUxB-E

whats your link for that cbs page, i cnat find it and AP is still saying 63% for california.

 

[Mick West]

whats your link for that cbs page, i cnat find it and AP is still saying 63% for california.

I use this page:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/election-2024-trump-celebrates-win/
They don't actually display the percent in, but the raw data has it, at:
https://api-election.cbsnews.com/api/public/races2/2024/G?filter.office=P

Currently, it has CA at 72%, which is the same as this NBC page:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results

 

[Greene]

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGj7MHUxB-E


The above is a video summary of the discussion in this thread. Original first post follows:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Typical claim:

In 2020, Biden got 81million votes, Trump 74million

In 2024, Harris got 67million votes, Trump 72million

That's 16million votes that appear to have "stayed at home".

That is beyond "not normal".

With this graph.
View attachment 72903
Source:
Source: https://twitter.com/Echopeus/status/1854193755584188670


The claims are being made on Nov 6, the day after the election, but on Nov 6, there is still a substantial portion of the vote that has not been counted, particularly in California. Here's the current AP results as reported by Google.

View attachment 72904


So there seems to be a lot of votes left to be counted (44% of California, being the biggest).

In 2020 the California vote was 11,110,639 to Biden and 6,006,518 to Trump

So, it would seem we need to wait a few days before making any comparisons between 2020 and 2024

Current count as of 19:30 EST 15 Nov 24:

Donald Trump: 76,247,413 votes (50.0%)
Kamala Harris: 73,398,238 votes (48.2%)

Source: NBC Decision 2024 2024 President Results: Trump wins

That's 10 million 'missing' votes accounted for since the initial claims.

 

[Mick West]

Total Votes (reported):
Donald Trump: 72,722,763
Kamala Harris: 68,039,491

Extrapolated Final Vote Counts (based on percent in):
Donald Trump: 79,290,166
Kamala Harris: 75,997,392

Final Pickup
Donald Trump: 6,567,403
Kamala Harris: 7,957,901

So the final results of the popular vote should be around 76 million for Harris vs. 79.3 Million for Trump

Revisiting it with the current figures (90% in for CA). I've tweaked the code to treat all 99% states as 100%, as they are probably closer to 100% at this point. This gives us:

Total Votes (reported):
Donald Trump: 76,148,332
Kamala Harris: 73,238,892

Extrapolated Final Vote Counts (based on percent in):
Donald Trump: 77,390,128
Kamala Harris: 74,927,971

Extrapolated Change from 2020
Trump's 77,390,128 is higher than his 2020 74,223,975 by 3,166,153
Harris's 74,927,971 is lower than Biden's 81,283,501 by 6,355,530

Estimated Remaining votes
Donald Trump: 1,241,796
Kamala Harris: 1,689,079

 

[Mendel]

Extrapolated Change from 2020
Trump's 77,390,128 is higher than his 2020 74,223,975 by 3,166,153
Harris's 74,927,971 is lower than Biden's 81,283,501 by 6,355,530

so one interpretation could be that ~3 million voters did not vote this time, making each candidate lose 1.5 million, and then ~4.5 million voters swung back to Trump

for a more substantive analysis, I'd want to see a poll that asks respondents if they voted, and for whom, in both elections, and then correlates that.

 

[JMartJr]

for a more substantive analysis, I'd want to see a poll that asks respondents if they voted, and for whom, in both elections, and then correlates that.

I'd do it a bit differently, I would not ask them that, I'd build my call list from voter lists obtained from the Boards of Elections, with whether or not they voted in the two elections included. (CAVEAT: This is based on practice several decades old, it may be that BoEs in some or all states are cagier about that info nowadays, or that such lists no longer include phone numbers.) They might lie, misremember or refuse to say who they voted for, but at least you'd know that they voted, and you could avoid the cost of calling a lot of people who did not vote in either.

 

[deirdre]

so one interpretation could be that ~3 million voters did not vote this time

what do you mean? Mick has an estimate of approx 3 million votes remaining to be counted still. no?

 

[Resistor]

I found this posting today of a letter written by a group of scientists, academics to VP Harris that claim "
We write to alert you to serious election security breaches that have
threatened the security and integrity of the 2024 elections"
https://freespeechforpeople.org/com...ant-recounts-to-ensure-election-verification/
The letter is located here - https://freespeechforpeople.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/letter-to-vp-harris-111324-1.pdf

 

[Mendel]

I found this posting today of a letter written by a group of scientists, academics to VP Harris that claim "
We write to alert you to serious election security breaches that have
threatened the security and integrity of the 2024 elections"
https://freespeechforpeople.org/com...ant-recounts-to-ensure-election-verification/
The letter is located here - https://freespeechforpeople.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/letter-to-vp-harris-111324-1.pdf

We have no evidence that the outcomes of the elections in those states were actually compromised as a result of the security breaches, and we are not suggesting that they were. But binding risk-limiting audits (RLAs) or hand recounts should be routine for all elections, especially when the stakes are high and the results are close. We believe that, under the current circumstances when massive software breaches are known and documented, recounts are necessary and appropriate to remove all potential doubt and to set an example for security best practices in all elections.

The letter is worth reading in its entirety, not just the headlines.

 

[captancourgette]

The letter is worth reading in its entirety, not just the headlines.

From the pdf

The evidence showed that the operatives made copies of the software that runs all of the equipment in Georgia, and certain other states, and shared it with other Trump allies and operatives.
Subsequent court filings and public records requests revealed that the
breaches in Georgia were part of a larger effort to take copies of voting system
software from systems in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Arizona, and
to share the software in the operatives' network. According to testimony and
declarations by some of the technicians who have obtained copies of the
software, they have had access for more than three years to the software for the
central servers, tabulators, and highly restricted election databases of both Election
Systems & Software (ES&S), and Dominion Voting Systems, the two largest
voting system vendors, constituting the most severe election security breach
publicly known.
Combined, their equipment counts nearly 70% of all votes nationwide.

Seems a concern and surely worth looking into, instead of doing another study about "does the MMR vaccine cause autism" or UFO's

 

[eleggua]

Seems a concern and surely worth looking into, instead of doing another study about "does the MMR vaccine cause autism" or UFO's

 

[JMartJr]

Seems a concern and surely worth looking into, instead of doing another study about "does the MMR vaccine cause autism" or UFO's

I'd agree generally, but with the concern that it could easily be spun into an "it was rigged" narrative, further normalizing the idea that elections are fake and not worth having/participating-in/defending. Once one side started doing it, we had problems. If both sides start, we are... a word I won't use here because it is always possible there are children or people with tender sensibilities that might be browsing.

Protecting our voting infrastructure is important, too, of course. If it could be done while firmly stomping on the "it was rigged" chorus some will push, including some international adversaries, that would be important.

 

[Mick West]

95% in for CA (and assuming all 99% states are essentially 100%)

Total Votes (reported):
Donald Trump: 76,483,299
Kamala Harris: 73,805,851

Extrapolated Final Vote Counts (based on percent in):
Donald Trump: 77,382,244
Kamala Harris: 74,982,899

Extrapolated Change from 2020
Trump's 77,382,244 is higher than his 2020 74,223,975 by 3,158,269
Harris's 74,982,899 is lower than Biden's 81,283,501 by 6,300,602

Estimated Remaining votes
Donald Trump: 898,945
Kamala Harris: 1,177,048

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

so one interpretation could be that ~3 million voters did not vote this time, making each candidate lose 1.5 million, and then ~4.5 million voters swung back to Trump

for a more substantive analysis, I'd want to see a poll that asks respondents if they voted, and for whom, in both elections, and then correlates that.

You have to factor in: because of population increase, there are more potential voters.

 

[Mendel]

You have to factor in: because of population increase, there are more potential voters.

source?

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024

In recent years Gen Z has been a major force in civic life, leading social movements and voting at higher rates than previous generations did when they were the same age. In the next presidential election, 40.8 million members of Gen Z (ages 18-27 in 2024) will be eligible to vote, including 8.3 million newly eligible youth (ages 18-19 in 2024) who will have aged into the electorate since the 2022 midterm election.

Just a start. This is since 2022, doesn't include naturalized citizens and doesn't include people who have died. But clearly the increase is large.

 

[Mendel]

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024
Just a start. This is since 2022, doesn't include naturalized citizens and doesn't include people who have died. But clearly the increase is large.

Now consider that the overall turnout is ~50%, and that over 6 million have died in the same time frame.
The increase is likely under 1%.