Footage at: http://www.extraordinarybeliefs.com/tic-tac-aav (see also attachment)
First, make sure you are talking about the right footage:
This thread is about the Nimitz footage, the GIMBAL footage discussion is at:
NOTE: While Fravor discusses his account and recollections of the Nimitiz incident, he did not take the video.
To me this Nimitz footage seems consistent with a distant (>50 miles away) plane flying away from the camera. It looks VERY similar to this proven example of the same thing:
Discussed here: https://www.metabunk.org/explained-chilean-navy-ufo-video-aerodynamic-contrails-flight-ib6830.t8306/
At the end of the video it gently drifts off to the left, either making a turn or due to the camera lock drifting. A sudden jump between 1x and 2x zoom makes this look vastly more dramatic than it actually is. This is described in this short video:
It could be a combination of the plane making a turn and the camera lock. If it's flying nearly directly away from the camera and it's really far away (like 50 to 100 miles), then it's still likely going to be moving relative to the camera direction, and indeed we see the camera heading at the top got from 4°R to 8° L, at which point the tracking seems to fail.
So I'd say the entire incident likely consisted of dodgy radar returns and a distant plane not on the radar.