1. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member


    I've been trying to visualize what's going on here from his verbal description. His initial description of the clock-code seems odd, as he's heading west and making a right turn, but says
    Is West six o'clock? Maybe just a random illustration of the direction of turn.

    But the interesting thing is:
    All of this is the Tic-Tac mirroring him. Now if you've got a featureless object over a mile away, and you don't know how big it is, then it's possible that you misjudge where it actually is. If, instead of being a 47 foot object on the other side of this clock face circle, near the water, it's actually a 23 foot in the MIDDLE of the circle, and HALF WAY to the ocean surface. And it's not moving much. Like a balloon.

    Then you'd get the mirroring, the circling, the rising to meet him, and then as he cuts across the circle, the illusion of massive acceleration towards and then past and behind him.
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. Agent K

    Agent K Active Member

    I said this last year, and you agreed.
    Now we even have a decent simulation of it, which I talked about in June.
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    I figured it would have been discussed before. I was originally trying to compare the different versions of the story, but reading Fravor's version, and trying to visualize it, really brought it home.

    It's not just the circling though, it's the rising up as he descends, and then I think it also explains the "hypersonic" departure. It's not that clear from this transcript:
    Compare withe the older version of the story:

    I think I was thinking of the clock code wrong before. It's essentially a position on the circle described by the clockwise right turn he does, with 12 o'clock being North. He starts at 6 o'clock, heading West, with the object off to his right, the North, at what he thinks is about 12 o'clock, so he continues from 6, all the way around past 12 to 3. The object has been mirroring him the whole time.

    Then he decides to fly across. He says: "I’m probably about 60 degrees nose low a little." What is that? 60 degrees down? Why would he do that if " it’s probably about maybe 3,000 feet below us and about a mile across the circle." That's only 28 degrees down.

    But perhaps the key thing here is the acceleration. If you think an object is a mile away, but it's only 0.5 miles away, then as you fly 0.5 miles towards it you'd expect it to just get 0.5 miles closer, and 2x bigger. Instead it gets to 0 miles away, and asymptotically larger. The change in expected speed would be incredible, and would seem like, especially as it got closer, to have near instant acceleration, both towards you, and to the side (depending on how far off-axis it was)
  4. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    On Fox News Fravor says:

    Source: https://youtu.be/EDj9ZZQY2kA?t=94

    Compare with the TTSA account:
    This makes sense with the parallax hypothesis. If you think it's a mile away, but it's only half a mile, then when "I cut across the circle, and I get within about a half mile of it, " you will think it's going super fast.
  5. Agent K

    Agent K Active Member

    This doesn't explain a couple of things though: the random ping-ponging that Fravor described and the possibility that the other pilot saw the same thing from a different angle.

    I discussed this in June.
    The Nimitz pilot report gave a different version of the initial sighting, where "The object appeared to travel at a speed of approximately 300 to 500 knots in a straight line" instead of ping-ponging, but this version is not consistent with a balloon either, and no more reliable than Fravor's version.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  6. div

    div New Member

    with slight turns of plane to left/right, balloon would appear moving to another direction(if it's at half way to surface)
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2019
  7. Nesper

    Nesper New Member

    I think the parallax and 0.5 rather than 1 mile away balloon does answer much of Fravor's observations. I'm still puzzled by the wing man's statement as to what she observed from the higher altitude, where there would not be much parallax:

    “It was so unpredictable—high G, rapid velocity, rapid acceleration. So you’re wondering: How can I possibly fight this?”
  8. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Yeah, that really has very few points of detailed correlation (which is what I was originally trying to figure out here - do the stories match?). After her rather incredible set of mental gymnastics imagining what they might be flying towards, she continues (or rather the interviewer paraphrases) in a very detail-lacking manner compared to Fravor, but with enough detail that you can tell it's not the same account AT ALL.

    And where is that picture? It really seems, from this account alone, like the interviewer is paraphrasing the witness statements. There's very little verbatim from "source" (the Female pilot).

    However, she did give a version of the story on the History Channel. At the start of Episode 1 of "Unidentified"1. Choppy editing prevents forming an accurate timeline from her statement, and there's even LESS detail than in the paraphrased report. About the most substantive things she says is:

    Clearly their stories do not match.

  9. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    What other stories are there? There's the "Unofficial CVW-11 Air Wing 11 Event Summary of Nov 14 2004"

    "UNID CONTACT AT 160@40NM (N3050.8 W11746.9) (NIMITZ N3129.3 W11752.8)" translates to (I think):

    Unidentified contact on a heading of 160°, 40 nautical miles away at lat/lon 30° 50.8', -117° 46.0'. The USS Nimitz was at 31° 29.3', -117° 52.8'

    Those locations:

    Metabunk 2019-10-05 07-52-29.

    So Fravor says quite specifically:

    The initial unknown contact given by this report is literally a point about 40 miles south (assuming everyone talking nautical miles here). This is the CAP point that Fravor, by his own account is already at.

    Not much else of detail, but:
    But Fravor:
  10. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    On "Unidentified", Fravor describes the first moment he notices the TicTac. As he does this, he seems to mime looking down about 30-40° and about due right.

    Metabunk 2019-10-05 08-51-37.

    Also there, they seem to give a different contact point:
    Metabunk 2019-10-05 08-54-36.
    Metabunk 2019-10-05 08-55-42.
  11. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    At around 14:30, he says: "We start a right hand turn, and we're going from a clock code, the object is in the middle of the clock, and we're at six o'clock and we are going around in a circle. We get to around 9 o'clock and it's still doing it's little thing moving around this disturbance in the water."

    There's more differences, later....
  12. Appreciate you taking the time to break it down and visualize all this, Mick.

    Assume you've seen this, what's your take on it?

    SCU_A Forensic Analysis of CSG 11 Encounter with a AAV_00.

    Last edited: Oct 5, 2019
  13. Spectrar Ghost

    Spectrar Ghost Senior Member

    This description seems confused. Remember, clock position is a relative positioning. He passes the object and it’s on his six, behind him. So he starts a right hand turn to come around for another pass. That should move the object to his right, which is toward his three o’clock, not his nine.

    The object and his aircraft are described at various clock positions throughout, which doesn’t make sense from how I’ve always heard it used.
  14. Spectrar Ghost

    Spectrar Ghost Senior Member

    Okay, so it sort of makes sense if he’s talking about relative positions within an area of engagement, with the object’s initial position as the origin. Passing it on a line from 12 to 6, Turing right towards nine. But it doesn’t make sense to me that he’d use that system instead of cardinal directions, since I’m not sure how he determined the objects initial absolute heading and how he maintained a conceptual grasp on where it moved relative to initial position. It is also easy to confuse with the normal relative position usage.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Coincidentally Fravor was on Joe Rogan today for an extended interview . Let's see if if there's some new useful details (or differences) here.

    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eco2s3-0zsQ

    He starts out agains saying the TicTac is in the center of the circle, which is a little confusing, as later it's at clock positions.

    at around 12:05, he says they go all the way around the circle to 8 o'clock before he cuts across.

    Metabunk 2019-10-05 16-20-31.

    26:30: Fravor: "There's rumors that this video is 10 minutes long. No, what you are looking at is the entire video"

    28:23 - making the same old mistake about it shooting off at the end of the video when it's just the change in zoom level and the lack of tracking.

    40:40 Mentions "Aura"

    49:05 Discusses how he used to silently buzz campers with his lights off to make them think they saw a UFO

    At 55:48, Corbell mocks a few theories from debunkers, Joe asks if he means Mick West.

    1:06:10 - Again says the video is not ten minutes long, says that's "bullshit" some guy made up. But he has seen "the radar tapes." Says the "men in black" thing seems unlikely.

    1:13:45 - Joe talks about people trying too hard to explain things away. Says it's a lazy way to look at things. Mental gymnastics to explain the Nimitz video fly-off

    1:46:58 - Fravor describes the Tic-Tac moving, said it knew they were there, jammed the radar.

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Oct 5, 2019
    • Like Like x 1
  16. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    It's like a vague retelling, with arrows. Kind of pointless if it's not synced to actual statements. Also rather hard to see the 3D component.
  17. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Comparing accounts. Supposedly there are four matching accounts. There's

    • Pilot David Fravor (OK-2) aka "Sex"
    • WSO OK-3, aka "Noodle"
    • Female pilot "Source"
    • WSO Jim/James Slaight (OK-1) aka "Clean"
    We have seem Fravor and Source's account, and some variants. But what about Noodle and Slaight?

    Slaight (Source's WSO) gave an interview here with a VERY vague account:
    Metabunk 2019-10-06 16-56-34.

    Source: https://youtu.be/AuBIBCW5P98?t=99

    (The host then shows the wrong video and says it does not look like a missile. Nobody corrects him. Fravor does not say they were actually heading West)

    I can't find any more.
  18. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Then there's also the CVW-11 Event Summary, supposedly written just after the event. during a 2009 investigation.

    This all seems totally different.
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2019
  19. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Seems like I'm duplicating work again:
    This contains a very good breakdown of the sources and their differences.
  20. Have you come across a simple, comprehensive list of the involved Nimitz personnel and their public statements?
  21. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    The above link is about the best, although it mostly focusses on the in-air stuff.
  22. Seems like a huge undertaking to track it all down, but it may be an interesting thread.
  23. Agent K

    Agent K Active Member

    As I expected, nobody saw the tic tac moving at hypersonic speed. They saw it disappear, and then the USS Princeton's radar saw something appear at the CAP point, according to Fravor.

    12:42 - As I'm pulling up, it starts to cross my nose, and it starts to accelerate, and within about less than a second, as I start to pull nose on to it, and it crosses right in front of me, it just goes poof and it's gone. So I call the other airplane, and I said, "You guys see that thing?" And they're like, "Sir, it's gone. We don't see it at all."

    13:45 - And they didn't track it. It just appeared. It just shows back up on the radar, and they go, "It's here."

    30:35 - And it gets in front of me and just disappears... The thing that we saw disappeared in a second. Just gone... The other airplane is above me looking down, and when it disappeared I said, "Do you guys see it?" And they said, "No, it's gone." It just literally was, "poof."
    • Like Like x 1
  24. Agent K

    Agent K Active Member

    One more comparison between the Nimitz report and Fravor's interview with Joe Rogan.

    Nimitz report - "The object instantaneously but in a controlled, intelligent manner 'tumbled' into nonsensical angles, that made any engagement by the F-18 impossible."

    Fravor's interview at 1:00:57 - "There's a lot of stuff [being claimed] that it flew around and it came around me. It didn't do any of that stuff. The story that I gave you is just relatively benign."

    Immediately prior to this at 1:00:20, Fravor talks about his wingman
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019 at 3:58 AM