Chemtrails in Arizona?

Peter

Active Member
OK here's a page that claims that the weather circumstances in Arizona were unfavorable to contrail formation on certain dates, yet there they were. Of course this is being interpreted as evidence for chemtrails by certain people.

Have a look here:

http://watchthesky.org/chems/document/page1.htm

I have no way of checking any of this. For all I know the dates on the pictures are inaccurate, but maybe I'm missing something else.. Or maybe chemtrails are true after all ;)

Can't wait to see what you guys and gals have to say about this.
 
Thanks Mick, that seems to make sense. Another thing to consider is that only the 'misses' are being represented on that page. We don't know how many times the charts indicated the right circumstances, so the data represented on that webpage is rather biased.
 
Some radiosondes seem to NEVER indicate the right conditions for contrails, where other stations quite close indicate them for 60+ days per year. It depends on the equipment used.

Okay, here's a good illustration of the difference, Sterling, VA and Wallops, VA. Just 100 miles apart, and yet in 2011 Sterling has 1 contrail sounding, and Wallops has 62 (and it's missing two months, so likely far more).

2010 has similar figures

Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
2010 Sterling 72403 IAD
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May *
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
All contrails/soundings = 1/760 -> 0%
00Z contrails/soundings = 1/361 -> 0%
12Z contrails/soundings = 0/365 -> 0%


-------------------------------------------------------------
2010 Island 72402 WAL Wallops
Jan ********
Feb *********
Mar **************
Apr ******
May ***************
Jun *********
Jul ******
Aug *********
Sep ************
Oct ************
Nov **********
Dec ****************
All contrails/soundings = 126/748 -> 16%
00Z contrails/soundings = 58/364 -> 15%
12Z contrails/soundings = 65/365 -> 17%
 
The "smoking gun" Doppler Radar reports continue to come from known areas of high density fighter aircraft traffic. (Chaff usage in training exercises). San Diego (Mirimar MCAS and associated training/restricted areas), Phoenix (Luke AFB and associated training/restricted areas).

These people don't seem to grasp that if chemtrail are as widespread as they claim, they would interfere with aircraft weather radars and ATC Primary radars.
 
This paper shows that raw humidity data from radiosondes are extremely poor predictors of ice supersaturated regions (needed for persistent contrails):
Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails
The best prediction from raw data was only 27.5% accurate, and generally the accuracy was below 20%. There is a correction procedure that can be applied to the data, and with the corrected data the prediction accuracy increases, to about 70% in the best case but still only about 50% in general.

There is a large literature on the dry bias of the radiosonde humidity sensors and how this can be corrected.
 
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